List Mgmt. Trade & Free Agency - Fred 11

[_RT_]

Updated Picks As Of October 15th

 

[M0557]

This is 100% what's happening, don't expect any interesting deals to get done between now and when the live broadcast kicks off.

might be a good time to continue to shadow death ride the WCE forum.....

 

[M0557]

Need an update from Hicksy

 

[Finn9]

Gonna start melting down like yesterday

 

[Meteoric Rise]

But its not pick 12 & 13 is it?

Bids don't devalue the picks. Lets say hypothetically that this draft had Peak Judd, Dusty, Ablett and Franklin but they were all to other academies. Well we would of already knocked those guys off our board. We can't get them but we can make sure other sides pay, so we bid on those players. Each of them is matched by their respective sides. Out pick 1 is now called Pick 5 but we still retain first choice in the draft. Sure all those other players were taken but we chose to force the other clubs to pay "fair value".

Your picks only get devalued through Free Agency Compensation. Now that Free Agency is over, Freo have 10, 11 + 18 and they will be were those picks are taken in the "live" draft.

You are letting Bolton go and paying some salary or giving a decent pick upgrade back for the 12th and 13th highest rated kids in the draft. It doesn't matter how many of those were unavailable to us, OR WHAT YOU CALL THE PICKS. Call them picks 1 & 2 for all I care, but let's acknowledge they are getting you the 12th and 13th highest rated players in the draft.

It is straight out wrong to say matched bid players don't devalue the picks behind them. Of course they do, if the bids are made genuinely, the AFL eco-system is more or less telling you that in your scenario, you have the 5th best player in the draft rather than the first. You have 4 higher rated players playing against you. This does not have the value of pick 1 in any sense.

Go back to the 2016 draft. McLuggage, possibly English, Tom Stewart are the only players who would have a value anywhere near Bolton's from that draft. And he is the youngest of them, and I would argue the best and most valuable. The 12th and 13th players taken in that draft were named Simpkin and Venables. Let's go through the 12th and 13th in every draft since....

2017 Fogarty & Brander
2018 Butters & Quaynor
2019 Pickett & Day
2020 Bruhn & Powell
2021 Sinn & Hobbs
2022 Fletcher & Busslinger
2023 Gothard & Tholstrup

and a few drafts before....

2015 C Curnow & Kennedy
2014 C Ellis & Weller
2013 Lennon & Cripps
2012 Jaksch & Lonergan
2011 Docherty & Taylor Adams

So 13 years of the 12 & 13th player taken in the draft - what we are probably surrendering peak 25yo Bolton for.

2018 you would definitely trade Bolton for.

2019, 2015, 2013 you probably would trade Bolton for.

2011 some might, I wouldn't.

Let's hold fire on 2022 & 2023, too early to judge fairly.

2016, 2017, 2020, 2021, 2012, 2014 you are defiitely NOT trading Bolton for.

So all in all this(the 12th and 13th picks in a draft) looks roughly fair value for Bolton on average, no salary paid, no other picks involved.

But here we own him on a long contract, and may look at paying some salary. It is thought this draft has better depth in the first round than most, but I am not sure how much that is worth. Bolton has a couple of his best years expired so maybe a small discount for that.

I just don't think we even discuss anything under 12 & 13 with no encumbrances. Just keep him if they don't want to pay at least that. If we want more, then try to leverage their desperation at the risk of missing out on a fair deal. But if a fair deal is all you are missing out on, then you aren't missing much.

 

[Drunken Wookie]

Need an update from Hicksy

He’s not back from the future yet

 

[cairo tiger]

shes gonna be a big day tmrw. come to pappa baby

 

[tigs2010]

You are letting Bolton go and paying some salary or giving a decent pick upgrade back for the 12th and 13th highest rated kids in the draft. It doesn't matter how many of those were unavailable to us, OR WHAT YOU CALL THE PICKS. Call them picks 1 & 2 for all I care, but let's acknowledge they are getting you the 12th and 13th highest rated players in the draft.

It is straight out wrong to say matched bid players don't devalue the picks behind them. Of course they do, if the bids are made genuinely, the AFL eco-system is more or less telling you that in your scenario, you have the 5th best player in the draft rather than the first. You have 4 higher rated players playing against you. This does not have the value of pick 1 in any sense.

Go back to the 2016 draft. McLuggage, possibly English, Tom Stewart are the only players who would have a value anywhere near Bolton's from that draft. And he is the youngest of them, and I would argue the best and most valuable. The 12th and 13th players taken in that draft were named Simpkin and Venables. Let's go through the 12th and 13th in every draft since....

2017 Fogarty & Brander
2018 Butters & Quaynor
2019 Pickett & Day
2020 Bruhn & Powell
2021 Sinn & Hobbs
2022 Fletcher & Busslinger
2023 Gothard & Tholstrup

and a few drafts before....

2015 C Curnow & Kennedy
2014 C Ellis & Weller
2013 Lennon & Cripps
2012 Jaksch & Lonergan
2011 Docherty & Taylor Adams

So 13 years of the 12 & 13th player taken in the draft - what we are probably surrendering peak 25yo Bolton for.

2018 you would definitely trade Bolton for.

2019, 2015, 2013 you probably would trade Bolton for.

2011 some might, I wouldn't.

Let's hold fire on 2022 & 2023, too early to judge fairly.

2016, 2017, 2020, 2021, 2012, 2014 you are defiitely NOT trading Bolton for.

So all in all this(the 12th and 13th picks in a draft) looks roughly fair value for Bolton on average, no salary paid, no other picks involved.

But here we own him on a long contract, and may look at paying some salary. It is thought this draft has better depth in the first round than most, but I am not sure how much that is worth. Bolton has a couple of his best years expired so maybe a small discount for that.

I just don't think we even discuss anything under 12 & 13 with no encumbrances. Just keep him if they don't want to pay at least that. If we want more, then try to leverage their desperation at the risk of missing out on a fair deal. But if a fair deal is all you are missing out on, then you aren't missing much.

You haven't factored in Saints picking 2 duds now Toce is gone.

 

[prodigy]

Doesn't seem like Rioli gets done before the embargo.

Makes things awkward.

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

People counting our chickens before they have hatched

#12 + #14 + Owies to Eagles
#14 to Sydney for #19 + #22
#19 to Richmond

Eagles get #12 + #22 + Baker + Owies

Then the Baker chicken can go to Freo for 18

 

[tora tora tora]

The Rioli deal isn't done yet either

Every pick swap is there. 20 from Lions is there. Essadon trade with Melbourne is there.

Pretty much gospel if its from that mod, LORE

RT re posted the refreshed version early this morning

2025 would be getting updated too

 

[Morro]

Doesn't seem like Rioli gets done before the embargo.

Makes things awkward.

There is a poster in here, I wont name names but rhymes with Pigsbentyben who said Rioli would be done last week. Bloody imposter

 

[tigs2010]

There is a poster in here, I wont name names but rhymes with Pigsbentyben who said Rioli would be done last week. Bloody imposter

Was done Friday. Been told to hold to embargo

 

[Morro]

Was done Friday. Been told to hold to embargo

Oh, helloooo there .

 

[Danog]

Matt Kennedy off to the Dogs

 

[prodigy]

 

[Finn9]

Need an update from Hicksy

It's arrived

 

[Football Tragic]

Has the Rioli trade already happened?

 

[djspank]

With North offering future 1st for 13 I’m telling freo it’s 10 & 11 now or Bolton stays a tiger and when they submit send:

6,11&14 for 2, F1st & 25


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

I notice you wrote the word "Fist" in there

 

[Meteoric Rise]

You haven't factored in Saints picking 2 duds now Toce is gone.

There is that.

 

[UpTheGutz]

I notice you wrote the word "Fist" in there

 

[prodigy]

Has the Rioli trade already happened? View attachment 2142237

No. Just what has been reported.

 

[Tigerturbulance]

off to Dan Murphy's to restock, reckon tomorrow will be a 2 slab day

 

[jthanos]

Has the Rioli trade already happened? View attachment 2142237

No !!

 

[tigerfan1961]

Rioli being held up by Houston deal. Port want another 1st rounder this year which puts 23 at risk

Rioli is the Suns prime target this trade period. Port can ask for whatever they want but I think 23 comes our way regardless

 

[UpTheGutz]

Rioli is the Suns prime target this trade period. Port can ask for whatever they want but I think 23 comes our way regardless

We’ll trade Port 14 for Butters. Everybody wins