List Mgmt. Trade & Free Agency - Fred 11

[_RT_]

Updated Picks As Of October 15th

 

[tigersnag]

Houston the next Pies messiah after Lachie Schultz didn't turn out to be Wayne Carey after all.

 

[DontArgue4]

Holy shit. So they get one extra steak knife. Corn gonna melt so hard

its not even a steak knife, its more like a butter knife hahahah

 

[M0557]

Houston for pick 13 & 15 pieces of junk reads like a BF trade suggestion you just scroll past

Perhaps they called Matt Clarke for advice in negotiating skills......

 

[Morro]

Houston the next Pies messiah after Lachie Schultz didn't turn out to be Wayne Carey after all.

doesnt he also miss the first month of the season?

 

[Danog]

Rory Atkins has a 'best attribute'?

He run good

 

[4tune8]

Essentially, the Pies paid their F1, pick 36 and Joe Richards to upgrade Noble > Houston.

 

[_RT_]

Ports haul for Houston summed up in a gif

 

[Rocco sifreddi]

Houston the next Pies messiah after Lachie Schultz didn't turn out to be Wayne Carey after all.

I'm death riding those campaigners to bottom 4

 

[Wally Matera]

Port

1. Lokosius (and a 1.2m contract) = Future First (which Cornes said this morning that he expects Port to finish "8-14th" -
2. Joe Richards (played 9 games) = pick 39 (in a healthy draft)
3. Rory Atkins (a delisting) = pick 58 (in a healthy draft, that will likely come into a mid-40's pick after use of points
4. Picks 13, 29 and 50 = Dan Houston
   5

   Dan Houston

   Age

   27

   Ht

   186cm

   Wt

   88kg

   Pos.

   Def

   Career

   Season

   Last 5

   D

   18.2

   5star

   K

   11.8

   4star

   HB

   6.4

   4star

   M

   4.9

   5star

   T

   3.0

   5star

   MG

   289.2

   4star

   D

   17.6

   4star

   K

   11.6

   4star

   HB

   6.0

   3star

   M

   3.3

   3star

   T

   3.4

   4star

   MG

   319.9

   5star

   D

   16.6

   4star

   K

   12.4

   5star

   HB

   4.2

   4star

   M

   7.0

   5star

   T

   2.6

   4star

   MG

   279.8

   5star

   (a two time AA, who apparently the best player on the trade table)

Port to WCE.... hold my ****ing beer

We're getting 6 & 23 for Rioli..... awww the melts

 

[joelsyt]

So when’s the last day of trade period? We still have Bolton and Rioli to trade out don’t we?

 

[BillHickman]

Gonna start a thread titled 'Predict this weeks Powerball numbers' and watch all you campaigners fight it out

 

[BKM78]

It's all working out perfectly, geez Gold coast will be laughing with pick 1 next year. (pies for the spoon) learnt nothing from the Schultz trade.

Yep and GC did well out of it so won’t feel any pain handing over 6 and 23 Rioli

 

[The_Kraken]

Gonna start work early tomorrow to listen to Cornes

Slam a car door on your **** while you’re at it.

 

[UpTheGutz]

Suns have a dusty spot & $. Hope he doesn’t but funnily enough am caring less than I did as we look ahead

 

[UpTheGutz]

AHAHAHAHAHA suck it Kornes

Did they just add 50? Pffft. Dribbler club

 

[docko911]

Did they just add 50? Pffft. Dribbler club

That’s not good for us, means 51 and 61 won’t get it done unless GC are happy to risk going into deficit. They can easily go into deficit but they might not want their first pick impacted in case it ends up being high. They have 3 chances.

 

[tigs2010]

Suns have a dusty spot & $. Hope he doesn’t but funnily enough am caring less than I did as we look ahead

Didn't FA end? Will there be a special Dusty rule created to let him sign late?

 

[The_Kraken]

View attachment 2142362

Imagine trading for a pair of Jacks like Watts and Lukosius.

 

[tiger_tough]

LOL

 

[docko911]

Didn't FA end? Will there be a special Dusty rule created to let him sign late?

If he hasn’t signed his retirement paperwork he can go into the PSD.

 

[Wally Matera]

 

[tigland]

LOL

 

[tigs2010]

LOL

It's absolutely incredible this is not the most embarrassing thing to happen today.

 

[Danog]

That’s not good for us, means 51 and 61 won’t get it done unless GC are happy to risk going into deficit. They can easily go into deficit but they might not want their first pick impacted in case it ends up being high. They have 3 chances.

They have enough points to match anything from Pick 5 onwards, if we give them 51 61 70.

Remember that all of their later picks will come in by ~3 when Brisbane match the Ashcroft bid. They should have around 1570 points total.

A Lombard bid at ~7 gets them their player and ~pick 50 in return.

 

[SplintWhisky]

You are letting Bolton go and paying some salary or giving a decent pick upgrade back for the 12th and 13th highest rated kids in the draft. It doesn't matter how many of those were unavailable to us, OR WHAT YOU CALL THE PICKS. Call them picks 1 & 2 for all I care, but let's acknowledge they are getting you the 12th and 13th highest rated players in the draft.

It is straight out wrong to say matched bid players don't devalue the picks behind them. Of course they do, if the bids are made genuinely, the AFL eco-system is more or less telling you that in your scenario, you have the 5th best player in the draft rather than the first. You have 4 higher rated players playing against you. This does not have the value of pick 1 in any sense.

Go back to the 2016 draft. McLuggage, possibly English, Tom Stewart are the only players who would have a value anywhere near Bolton's from that draft. And he is the youngest of them, and I would argue the best and most valuable. The 12th and 13th players taken in that draft were named Simpkin and Venables. Let's go through the 12th and 13th in every draft since....

2017 Fogarty & Brander
2018 Butters & Quaynor
2019 Pickett & Day
2020 Bruhn & Powell
2021 Sinn & Hobbs
2022 Fletcher & Busslinger
2023 Gothard & Tholstrup

and a few drafts before....

2015 C Curnow & Kennedy
2014 C Ellis & Weller
2013 Lennon & Cripps
2012 Jaksch & Lonergan
2011 Docherty & Taylor Adams

So 13 years of the 12 & 13th player taken in the draft - what we are probably surrendering peak 25yo Bolton for.

2018 you would definitely trade Bolton for.

2019, 2015, 2013 you probably would trade Bolton for.

2011 some might, I wouldn't.

Let's hold fire on 2022 & 2023, too early to judge fairly.

2016, 2017, 2020, 2021, 2012, 2014 you are defiitely NOT trading Bolton for.

So all in all this(the 12th and 13th picks in a draft) looks roughly fair value for Bolton on average, no salary paid, no other picks involved.

But here we own him on a long contract, and may look at paying some salary. It is thought this draft has better depth in the first round than most, but I am not sure how much that is worth. Bolton has a couple of his best years expired so maybe a small discount for that.

I just don't think we even discuss anything under 12 & 13 with no encumbrances. Just keep him if they don't want to pay at least that. If we want more, then try to leverage their desperation at the risk of missing out on a fair deal. But if a fair deal is all you are missing out on, then you aren't missing much.

Peak Bolton is never peak with us though. If we was such a great player, he would of been a cut above this year. You would of easily gone and said "Wow, this year, Bolton really showed how great of player he is." He has a total of 26 coaches votes for the 2024 year when he played 22 games this year.

His best is worth 10+11+18 alone but he hasn't demonstrated that this year and you are only as good as your last performance.

10+11 for no salary is fair enough for both side as Freo are paying for the risk he never makes it back to 2022 like performances.

I am happy to keep him for spite but there is no way.

It is straight out wrong to say matched bid players don't devalue the picks behind them. Of course they do, if the bids are made genuinely, the AFL eco-system is more or less telling you that in your scenario, you have the 5th best player in the draft rather than the first. You have 4 higher rated players playing against you. This does not have the value of pick 1 in any sense.

This doesn't match any economic theory. While your pick might move from 1 to 5, what matters is that you still have the first available player.

Even though matched bids push your pick down, you still have the first live choice among the remaining talent, meaning the relative value of your pick remains the same. Richmond forces fair value on the players tied to a specific club, so once those players are taken, you still hold the first pick in the remaining pool. You control the market for the available players. It's the decision-making power and relative value of the remaining pool that count in this situation. Drafting is about picking the best from what's left or shaping the market to your advantage.