List Mgmt. Trade & Free Agency - Fred 11

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Updated Picks As Of October 11th

 

[Tigerbob]

Haha nah don’t tell him

 

[JR82]

That’s not a bad plan B.
Only thing is , FA comp will probably be reviewed and we’ll get screwed.

Ok now hear me out, if Bakes stays for 1 yr, we have a heap of cap space being freed up, we pay him whatever is needed next yr to get him to be a RFA. Otherwise as a UFA we'll get Graham compo all over again

 

[T4P]

For the life of me I can’t see who or where this would come from mate.

Brisbane needed points and a lot of them. No one had more to spare than us.

If we bid on Ashcroft at 1 and Marshall at 14 they are up for an extra nearly 1000 points in deficit than now. That threat alone should have given us leverage.

We give the hand we did, we should have got back a pick for next year as well at the very least or kept Pick 42 and given them 395 points less.

I'm hearing a lot of judgmental 'shoulds' from a man who just quoted Lasso's 'be curious and not judgmental'

I am also curious about the competitive dynamics, but my base case assumption is that they had a good reason - we only know the outcome, not the process.

Sure it feels expensive, but clubs seem to be frothing to claw up the board this draft. I'm not judging the outcome.

 

[AstuteTiger]

I reckon on Baker it'll come down to this.

1) Pick 3 comes to us and we return an early pick back along with Baker.
2) The Eagles split their pick 3 for example with Carlton who have 12&14 and they pass on to us 12 or 14
3) The last option is if the eagles snooze Freo might come jumping in with 10, 11, and 18 for Bolton and Bakes

 

[Bird Man]

We get 6 for Rioli. 10 and 18 for Bolton.

So we have 1, 6, 10, 18, 20, 24, 51, 61, 70, 76

Do we ?

Trade 6 and 18 for Norf’s pick-2
Trade 10, Baker and a F2 for Eagles pick-3.

Enter draft with 1, 2, 3, 20, 24, 51, 61, 70, 76

FOS, Lalor and Jagga guaranteed, with a couple more quality picks to come in the 20’s, and another likely pick-1 gun in 2025 draft.

So when it’s all said and done it’s basically Rioli, Bolton and Baker for picks 2 and 3. You’re doing that every day of the week aren’t you?

I just hate the idea of FOS, Jagga, Draper and Langford all being better than Lalor and we miss out on them all and have to watch them dominate for other clubs.


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having three tiger jumpers in that top 10 draft photo would be juicy

 

[Tigerbob]

I'm hearing a lot of judgmental 'shoulds' from a man who just quoted Lasso's 'be curious and not judgmental'

I am also curious about the competitive dynamics, but my base case assumption is that they had a good reason - we only know the outcome, not the process.

Sure it feels expensive, but clubs seem to be frothing to claw up the board this draft. I'm not judging the outcome.

There was two ‘shoulds’

Calm down.

Your base assumption is they had good reason? So just full blown trust despite the extra 800 points? Our draft picks went from full flexibility, to now, not so much.

I’m just curious as to why we did it when it doesn’t seem like we had to.

Will be very interested to see how our trade period goes in the end and see how this all makes sense.

 

[richoatthedisco]

When you hear the reason, please let me know

Haha, you're more likely to hear than I am mate

 

[prodigy]

so can trades happen on the weekend?

They can but they won't. Clubs will just use this time to thrash out the inner workings of the complex deals.

 

[petro12]

We were always going to trade for either Brisbane’s or Carlton’s first rounder. Camporeale twins are going later than expected so Blues don’t need to give up their first and unfortunately from a draft perspective Brisbane won the flag so pushes the pick to about pick 24-25 come draft night. We probably agreed on the deal throughout the year.

At the end of the day yes we lose points but wait for the offers we get on draft night if we end up getting the other first rounders for Bakes, Bolton and Rioli and the overs a team will be willing to pay for the first pick of the second round.

We know what we’re doing and I’m sorry to disappoint but we ain’t getting whatever a lot on here believed we would for Rioli and Bolton. We’re going to want to rebuild quickly and we’re going to get some pretty good picks for them just not a Luke Jackson

9

Luke Jackson

Age

23

Ht

199cm

Wt

102kg

Pos.

F/R

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.3

2star

K

3.3

1star

HB

5.0

4star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.0

3star

G

0.3

3star

D

8.3

2star

K

3.3

1star

HB

5.0

3star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.0

2star

G

0.3

3star

D

8.3

3star

K

3.3

2star

HB

5.0

4star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.0

3star

G

0.3

3star

type of deal

 

[JR82]

View attachment 2138685

Did they?

Do you mean they would’ve also included pick 28 as well? So their entire draft hand except 5 for Pick 20? I don’t buy it tbh. On top of that they would want Sharp?

No club had the capacity to trade for pick 20. We also had the added leverage of using the bid for Ashcroft at one to sell the idea.

I’m not gonna cry over it and gonna wait to see what occurs by trade period end, but yes, we drastically overpaid here. I’m not certain why.

Just a wild guess here, could it be once they match their bids they may trade us a a pick swap on draft night? maybe we get a future pick back from there? With Ashcroft there'd be a "handshake", could there be one we don't yet know about?

 

[T4P]

There was two ‘shoulds’

Calm down.

Your base assumption is they had good reason? So just full blown trust despite the extra 800 points? Our draft picks went from full flexibility, to now, not so much.

I’m just curious as to why we did it when it doesn’t seem like we had to.

Will be very interested to see how our trade period goes in the end and see how this all makes sense.

You say 'extra 800' as if the lions would have traded net zero change in amount of points.

The points differential between the F1+F2 pick bids for GC's pick 13 would be a fair bit greater than 800.

When clubs are trading later picks for a first rounder, do you know what the average additional points paid for that pick is?

We clearly had to - Blair isn't running a charity. I question why you have a belief that we didn't have to, based on limited information.

 

[Tigerbob]

Just a wild guess here, could it be once they match their bids they may trade us a a pick swap on draft night? maybe we get a future pick back from there? With Ashcroft there'd be a "handshake", could there be one we don't yet know about?

As good a theory as I’ve heard to why.

 

[JR82]

As good a theory as I’ve heard to why.

It's a pure hunch, but as you seem to be "in the know" & mentioned there'd be a reason why, it's just a thought that came to me. It'll make sense in the end. Could be that Bris need the pts for bids (clearly) & atm aren't sure what they can give back, till after the bids are matched of course then they can balance it out with us.

 

[Tigerbob]

You say 'extra 800' as if the lions would have traded net zero change in amount of points.

The points differential between the F1+F2 pick bids for GC's pick 13 would be a fair bit greater than 800.

When clubs are trading later picks for a first rounder, do you know what the average additional points paid for that pick is?

We clearly had to - Blair isn't running a charity. I question why you have a belief that we didn't have to, based on limited information.

800 - 395(Pick42) = 405 points differential. Thats not net zero is it? It’s still an extra 405 points. Plus a hand shake agreement on not bidding on Ashcroft at 1 (+500 points) and Marshall before Pick 20.

Blair isn’t running a charity? Well he’s donating like he is supporting one.

Who else has a better deal for Brisbane in this draft? I’m still waiting to hear it.

Obtaining pick 20 is a good thing, I’m just querying as the price we paid was overs and why we felt we had to do it.

 

[Calcium Man]

We don't use the draft picks for points, mate. They don't matter. Get over it.

Really we don’t use the draft picks for points? Thank you for pointing out something so obvious to me.

If only there was a team we were dealing with who had a potential top 5 pick they needed draft points for, then we could have used those worthless points to help them get their top 5 pick and we could have got something of value, say like an extra high pick in return out of them.

 

[Kyusss]

If we get 10+18 For Shai
We might offer that to wce for 3 and it might be more appealing than 12&14 to have a pick ahead of Freo

And Carlton don’t get 3

1 LALOR
3 FOS
6 LANGFORD/JAGGA

Shai for pick 3 essentially


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[Tigerbob]

Brisbanes other points upgrade. To Carlton. I’ve made an assumption Carlton getting Brisbanes future second round will be 45 next year after another flag.

As you can see, not a 800 point difference. Carlton gave them an upgrade. Not as much as we did.

 

[Cleansweep17]

800 - 395(Pick42) = 405 points differential. Thats not net zero is it? It’s still an extra 405 points. Plus a hand shake agreement on not bidding on Ashcroft at 1 (+500 points) and Marshall before Pick 20.

Blair isn’t running a charity? Well he’s donating like he is supporting one.

Who else has a better deal for Brisbane in this draft? I’m still waiting to hear it.

Obtaining pick 20 is a good thing, I’m just querying as the price we paid was overs and why we felt we had to do it.

Do you know how many players we can get in the draft? I heard from a mate it’s 6 max. Idk if this is true or not. Maybe that’s a factor too.

 

[Lord of the Wings]

At pick-20 we will get a player rated top 10-12 in most drafts. Granted there is more depth right through the 30’s and 40’s, but it remains a crap shoot in regards to getting high quality players in that range.

So I believe we acted swiftly and didn’t leave anything to chance to just lock that pick away, as it’s like pick 10-12 in a normal draft year.

Or … clubs will be clambering on the phone to get that pick in live trading, offering future firsts for the privilege.

As we saw today with the Eagles, you snooze, you lose.


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Ben Lennon and Corey Ellis were our last 2 picks at no.12!

 

[richoatthedisco]

Melbourne will be after pick 2, to get FOS. So will Richmond. (If the jungle drums are right and we're taking Lalor at 1. Otherwise we'll be after it to get Lalor.)

North will trade down with one of them and take Tauru at 5 or 6. That's what I'm picking up.

Melbourne is going hard for GC's pick 13 so they can trade it with 5 for 2. Richmond is likewise trying to get 13 to trade it with 6 for 2. If Melbourne gets 13 Richmond will have to offer 6 and 10 or 11.

Let's see if Jason Taylor gets Mark McGowan to write that Melbourne is keen on Tauru at 5. See if Thursfield flinches like Rosa did.

Anyway. That's my theory.

 

[Tigers Time]

View attachment 2138728

Brisbanes other points upgrade. To Carlton. I’ve made an assumption Carlton getting Brisbanes future second round will be 45 next year after another flag.

As you can see, not a 800 point difference. Carlton gave them an upgrade. Not as much as we did.

Carlton 1. Weren’t trying to get into the first round and 2. Were wanting a future 2nd so they could do the Hawks trade.

Just maybe what we paid was the asking price this year to get into the first round. Look at all the clubs trying to trade future firsts and more for 13.


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[RockJobster0312]

There was two ‘shoulds’

Calm down.

Your base assumption is they had good reason? So just full blown trust despite the extra 800 points? Our draft picks went from full flexibility, to now, not so much.

I’m just curious as to why we did it when it doesn’t seem like we had to.

Will be very interested to see how our trade period goes in the end and see how this all makes sense.

I don’t know the whys and the wherefores like everyone else, but I think the timing may be hold an insight.

Is it coincidence that the trade was made after news broke that Sharp had requested a move to Melbourne?

Is it a coincidence that the trade was made just before Brisbane traded its future second and a pick in the 70s to Carlton for 34 and 66 almost immediately after trading 20?

If Sharp and Robertson are moved for third round picks, and Brisbane do the Carlton deal (nothing stopping Brisbane trading a future second at any stage); it would eat heavily into the points it requires to match any bids.

Suddenly both the amount of picks needed to satisfy Brisbane’s needs for points is drastically reduced, and more teams are in a position to make a move for 20.

IMO we paid a premium to ensure we got the pick ahead of anyone else. There was no incentive for Brisbane to necessarily get the deal done this early, and Richmond would - on face value - seem to be better keeping its picks until after the Rioli, Bolton and Baker trades were completed.

Think we’d all be up in arms if another team found a way to jump in for 20 and I think the path for doing so would have been more open in a few days time.

 

[Kyusss]

If we get 10+18 For Shai
We might offer that to wce for 3 and it might be more appealing than 12&14 to have a pick ahead of Freo

And Carlton don’t get 3

1 LALOR
3 FOS
6 LANGFORD/JAGGA

Shai for pick 3 essentially

Or offer 10+Baker for 3+ and keep 18

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[prodigy]

Melbourne will be after pick 2, to get FOS. So will Richmond. (If the jungle drums are right and we're taking Lalor at 1. Otherwise we'll be after it to get Lalor.)

North will trade down with one of them and take Tauru at 5 or 6. That's what I'm picking up.

Melbourne is going hard for GC's pick 13 so they can trade it with 5 for 2. Richmond is likewise trying to get 13 to trade it with 6 for 2. If Melbourne gets 13 Richmond will have to offer 6 and 10 or 11.

Let's see if Jason Taylor gets Mark McGowan to write that Melbourne is keen on Tauru at 5. See if Thursfield flinches like Rosa did.

Anyway. That's my theory.

I was thinking about this earlier in terms of what I think we'd be willing to give up for pick 2.
6 and 11 feels like a lot, especially in this draft.
6 and 13 for some reason doesn't feel like a lot.

It's weird.

I'd be horrified if we ended up losing out on FOS. I still think we should take him at 1.

 

[tigerdan]

Melt week once again fails to disappoint. And the intensity of the melt is proportional to the number of tickets the melters have on themselves.