Hot Topic Trade/Free Agency Talk 2021 edition

[ferrisb]

Hypothetically speaking, if Gold Coast offered us pick 19 for LOB and the pick we are probably getting for SPS (either 29 or 35) would you do it ?

Just a Hypothetical question that is very unlikely to happen, but one I find intriguing.

I would take it.

IF LOB does end up establishing himself at AFL level, losing him for a minor pick upgrade would be terrible decision.

IF he doesn't make it, the upgrade would turn out to be an effective way to salvage some value.

So it all comes down to likely you think it is that LOB makes it AFL level. IMHO, I don't think it's very likely.

 

[carlton_99]

Is anyone else confused how Clark is valued so highly in a trade. Hasn't really played consistently for Geelong so surely he cant be worth more then SPS who I dont think is even worth a 2nd round pick

 

[CJMB]

Is anyone else confused how Clark is valued so highly in a trade. Hasn't really played consistently for Geelong so surely he cant be worth more then SPS who I dont think is even worth a 2nd round pick

he's contracted though, so that adds a bit to the value

 

[ferrisb]

If we trade out of both this year's and next year's first rounds, then we'd need to manufacture an extra first rounder in 2023 otherwise we start copping the future pick trading limitations.

Nah, we just get Brian Cook to call up the AFL and pretend he still works at Geelong.

The AFL will give us an exemption without blinking

 

[ferrisb]

We consistently overpay:

Pick #8 for Saad (Essenden got him for a second rounder).
Pick #13 for McGovern (such potential...)
Overpaying Williams on potential...
Remember our famous pick #7 for 4 players swap... (ferrisb: I think you are mixing up the Plowman/salary dump and the Jaksch/Wiley trades)

Where is our respect for being so nice????

Those deals all sucked. I'd also add Tuohy trade as a disaster too (I know we needed it to get Marchbank, but the deal completely sucked)

On the other side, we got

Martin for free
Newman for a future 4th rounder
A king's ransom for an ageing Gibbs
Plowman (and junk) for pick 28 and a vital 1st round pick upgrade that got us Harry McKay (Or Charlie, depending on your sliding doors interpretation)

Swing and roundabouts, mate.

I don't think AFL clubs see us a pushover. We win some deals, we lose some others. The key is to get reasonable (not perfect, utopian) value each time and don't be such a pain in the ass that clubs don't want to deal with you again....

 

[carlton_99]

Those deals all sucked. I'd also add Tuohy trade as a disaster too (I know we needed it to get Marchbank, but the deal completely sucked)

On the other side, we got

Martin for free
Newman for a future 4th rounder
A king's ransom for an ageing Gibbs
Plowman (and junk) for pick 28 and a vital 1st round pick upgrade that got us Harry McKay (Or Charlie, depending on your sliding doors interpretation)

Swing and roundabouts, mate.

I don't think AFL clubs see us a pushover. We win some deals, we lose some others. The key is to get reasonable (not perfect, utopian) value each time and don't be such a pain in the ass that clubs don't want to deal with you again....

Exactly! And if we swap the Saad trade and say * were going after a half back we had that had finished top 3 in the b anf f for a couple of years and was a top 5 half back in the comp what would be asking for? I without a doubt would say a top 10 pick especially considering he is in his prime

 

[AndyLucimitis]

Two questions:

- Do we think Cerra's announcement of his nominated club is being delayed because Carlton and Freo are actually doing the deal and it will be announced as a fait accompli ?


- SEN (Dwayne) were talking about ruckman Darcy Fort

32

Darcy Fort

Age

31

Ht

204cm

Wt

98kg

Pos.

F/R

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.6

2star

K

5.8

2star

HB

2.9

3star

M

1.9

2star

T

1.8

4star

G

0.8

4star

D

9.2

2star

K

6.0

2star

HB

3.2

2star

M

1.8

2star

T

1.8

3star

G

0.2

3star

D

7.6

2star

K

5.4

2star

HB

2.2

2star

M

2.0

3star

T

1.2

3star

G

1.2

4star

from Geelong not getting a game and may move on - anyone have an opinion on him as a No.2 ruckman perhaps ??

 

[Yubby]

Looks like suns aren't looking for a lot of picks so perhaps something along the lines of

6 -> GCS -> 19, 22, 43, 55 -> Blues
19 -> cats -> clark -> freo
25 + clark -> cerra

Leaves blues with 22, 43, 55, 61, 79

I really like this. Of course it presumes GCS are willing to overpay to get the pick which they might be if there's a specific player they are after.

I think that Freo would want 22 rather than 25 from us though, either that or a later pick or a pick swap that improves them slightly.

Probably the best suggestion i've seen so far.

 

[4thchicken]

I really like this. Of course it presumes GCS are willing to overpay to get the pick which they might be if there's a specific player they are after.

I think that Freo would want 22 rather than 25 from us though, either that or a later pick or a pick swap that improves them slightly.

Probably the best suggestion i've seen so far.

the presumption is based on this article which indicated that the suns were likely to take 3, and possibly only 2 picks in the draft - https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/te...s/news-story/3091971f6cd83ecc60c68c06cc8ccb6d

 

[CoachB]

What is the hold up with Cerra nominating? He's not Le Bron! Get on with it.

CB

 

[Kings of Lygon]

Exactly! And if we swap the Saad trade and say * were going after a half back we had that had finished top 3 in the b anf f for a couple of years and was a top 5 half back in the comp what would be asking for? I without a doubt would say a top 10 pick especially considering he is in his prime

Except that not many people would say that. Saad is the only half-back ever to have been traded for that much and some good ones have been traded in the past. They did a number on us.

 

[Kings of Lygon]

What is the hold up with Cerra nominating? He's not Le Bron! Get on with it.

CB

I dunno, there is always the chance he doesn't and sticks to the 'Victoria' story. Wouldn't be a good result for us, but it's been unusual the way it's gone.

There is no real advantage to waiting this long if he is going to nominate us.

 

[ferrisb]

Want brander. Could be a real good player. Why not take the punt? It’s not like we are gonna lose much from it

WCE are great at developing talls yet Brander been played on the wing.

I know WCE have a gazillion KPPs, so there is a genuine excuse of why he hasn't cemented a key position spot.

Or is he just not good enough?

He was a great swingman as a junior, but looks more Andrejs Everitt/Kristian Jaksch than Jones replacement right now.

My concern is that Brander is tall, but not a tall.

 

[ferrisb]

Being reported now that Jarrod Cameron will take a year off next year.

That never ends well

I agree, GB.

However, perhaps COVID could see more of this happen at the moment and hopefully the players make it back when life gets back to normal...

 

[FlowersByIrene]

I really like this. Of course it presumes GCS are willing to overpay to get the pick which they might be if there's a specific player they are after.

I think that Freo would want 22 rather than 25 from us though, either that or a later pick or a pick swap that improves them slightly.

Probably the best suggestion i've seen so far.

No where near enough value for Cerra there from a Freo perspective.

They'll likely throw a tantrum and threaten to trade Cerra to Melbourne if we split pick #6. They'll want one of the WA KPPs

 

[carlton_99]

Except that not many people would say that. Saad is the only half-back ever to have been traded for that much and some good ones have been traded in the past. They did a number on us.

Who are the top 5 half backs in the past that have been traded?

 

[4thchicken]

No where near enough value for Cerra there from a Freo perspective.

They'll likely throw a tantrum and threaten to trade Cerra to Melbourne if we split pick #6. They'll want one of the WA KPPs

Very much depends on what freo thinks they need to give up for a contracted former pick 15. Given cats already have picks 30, 32 & 34, I don't see them being interested in entertaining pick 27

Keep in mind that freo don't currently have 3rd and 4th round picks - so the mid 20s pick from the Cerra deal would represent an ≈50 pick upgrade in the draft order from their next pick (81) ie much greater value than if they still had 3rd/4th round picks

 

[ferrisb]

Think I read somewhere that Carlton are going to go down the data, analytical path of coaching and list management...

Which is why Tim Lincoln joined the board..
Tim has a wealth of data and analytics experience and has been an expert in the field for over 30years...

This is pretty exciting... Should allow us to make better choices that lead to better outcomes, just shows how far behind the times we really were...

Wonder how long it wold take to implement into list management?
Allowing us to pick specific targeted players, instead of just the biggest name available

There is only ONE problem with data analytics, it lacks the smell, sound, taste, feel test ... you get the eyes, and the back ground of the eyes ... but missing a few other key ingredients unless it as a holistic approach.

If that's the approach they use, great, but it needs to be holistic.

I worked in the same space as Tim Lincoln (direct competitor) for ~10 years.

The product that made his company was essentially him designing a black box to analyse stocks and spit out good candidates based on data. Broadly speaking, think of it like what Champion Data does, but with stocks. Player (stock) A has X score in this category, that ranks as elite, above avg etc. Rank a whole bunch of metrics and voila... you have an overall ranking for your player/stock. This is easy to do, but hard to do well. From what I saw when I tested the product, he's actually done quite a good job of it.

Since the black box product, Lincoln has branched out to newsletters and funds management. As I understand it, Lincoln relies mostly but not solely on the data. There is somewhat of an overlay on top (call it the sniff test), so it's not pure analytics.

I would def call Tim Lincoln an expert in data analytics, but I am not sure how transferrable that is to footy. He might be able to build a similar black box for footy, but it would take him years (and might help if his dad had written a thesis on footy analytics...).

As an aside, I have heard amazing things about Tim's character (from employees). He is reportedly a really genuine, nice, hard-working guy who has been a mad Blues fan for yonks.

EDIT: I once applied for a job at Lincoln Indicators (about 15 years ago) but pulled out. What a shame, as I could have had an awesome Bluemour source!!!

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Very much depends on what freo thinks they need to give up for a contracted former pick 15. Given cats already have picks 30, 32 & 34, I don't see them being interested in entertaining pick 27

Keep in mind that freo don't currently have 3rd and 4th round picks - so the mid 20s pick from the Cerra deal would represent an ≈50 pick upgrade in the draft order from their next pick (81) ie much greater value than if they still had 3rd/4th round picks

I don't think they're going to give up a tonne for Clarke. Clarke should realistically be worth less than SPS and we are looking at scraping the bottom of the barrel for a 3rd rounder for him (although Clarke is contracted).

 

[Kings of Lygon]

Who are the top 5 half backs in the past that have been traded?

In recent times - Michael Hibberd, Jeremy Howe and Pearce Hanley are the ones that spring to mind, Saad himself would have to be included (GC to Essendon). Aaron Hall, Nic Newman and Taylor Duryea depending on how you rate them. Jack Scrimshaw, former top 10 pick netted GC basically nothing, but he was younger and hadn't played alot. I've probably missed one or two.

Heath Shaw is the closest in value you'll find to the Saad trade, he was traded for Taylor Adams, a former pick 13 on his own.

We paid a top 10 pick for a half back, more than half way through his career. Not good business no matter how good Saad plays really.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

Is anyone else confused how Clark is valued so highly in a trade. Hasn't really played consistently for Geelong so surely he cant be worth more then SPS who I dont think is even worth a 2nd round pick

Its the anti Carlton media driving down the value of our assets whilst pushing those of other clubs up.. Clark's trade value is considered much higher than SPS.. It truly is laughable.

 

[alfo]

What is the hold up with Cerra nominating? He's not Le Bron! Get on with it.

CB

Have we learnt nothing from last year with Saad and publicly being nominated!?

On SM-G998B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Metalcrusher]

What is the hold up with Cerra nominating? He's not Le Bron! Get on with it.

CB

I would suggest that Cerras management want the deal sorted prior to nom, at a guess ... Once the two clubs sort it out, nom, then trade finalised.

 

[ferrisb]

Ew, no to Cogs. He made his decision.

Rabbit is unappealing when it's (over)cooked...

 

[Les Grossman playaaaa]

I worked in the same space as Tim Lincoln (direct competitor) for ~10 years.

The product that made his company was essentially him designing a black box to analyse stocks and spit out good candidates based on data. Broadly speaking, think of it like what Champion Data does, but with stocks. Player (stock) A has X score in this category, that ranks as elite, above avg etc. Rank a whole bunch of metrics and voila... you have an overall ranking for your player/stock. This is easy to do, but hard to do well. From what I saw when I tested the product, he's actually done quite a good job of it.

Since the black box product, Lincoln has branched out to newsletters and funds management. As I understand it, Lincoln relies mostly but not solely on the data. There is somewhat of an overlay on top (call it the sniff test), so it's not pure analytics.

I would def call Tim Lincoln an expert in data analytics, but I am not sure how transferrable that is to footy. He might be able to build a similar black box for footy, but it would take him years (and might help if his dad had written a thesis on footy analytics...).

As an aside, I have heard amazing things about Tim's character (from employees). He is reportedly a really genuine, nice, hard-working guy who has been a mad Blues fan for yonks.

EDIT: I once applied for a job at Lincoln Indicators (about 15 years ago) but pulled out. What a shame, as I could have had an awesome Bluemour source!!!