List Mgmt. Trade & Free Agency talk Pt 8

[_RT_]

 

[fargothegreat]

He did look good as a 17yo in the clips I watched before.

Does have the vibe of teams picking up our crap thinking they can do better. Tambling, Fiona etc

The problem with Philips is he has a shit tank and no traits to play anywhere, but midfield.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

It’s an interesting question … but right now if I had to pick between Dow or Philips - with nothing else taken into account - I’m 100% taking Dow. He can take contested marks. He’s got clean hands in traffic. He’s got plenty of things to work on, but IMO Dow’s upside trumps the upside of Philips, and I’d be astounded if they delisted Dow and traded for Philips … in fact their career stats are remarkably similar:

Dow v Philips :

Games : 30 v 35
Disposals: 14.9 v 14.1
Tackles: 2.2 v 3.0
Goals : 0 v 0.2
GA: 0.3 v 0.3
CP: 6.9 v 6.0
Clearances: 3.1 v 2.5
SI: 3.3 v 3.4
Metres: 147 v 152
DE% : 73% v 75%

Dow’s 2024 stats are vastly superior to Philips, but that could be due to TOG% and being sub…


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Both these players have had hiccups along the way that have hampered them. But Phillips has had the worst of that by a margin.

In 2023, Phillips was a 3rd year player off a total missed season 2022. He put together a really tidy season for a 3rd year inside mid - not elite or anything but these were his figures, playing for a team who is at least as bad as an average wooden spooner:

10.44 player rating
19 disposals
208 metres gained
74% disposal efficiency
8.3 contested possessions
a centre clearance each 10.7 attendances
3.9 clearances
0.8 goals + assists
4.2 score involvements
1.6 score launches
4.1 tackles
18.5 pressure acts

This is comfortably above what Dow is producing this year and Phillips was basically 18 months younger than Dow is this year. I am not sure why Phillips has gone backwards this year but if he was good enough to produce that season as a 20/21 yo in a super weak team, he has to have something going for him.

The attributes Dow has, as you put it, "clean hands in traffic" at least equally apply to Phillips. He has brilliant ball handling and very fast reactions. I suspect Phillips is just simply a better class player overall. A clear difference between the two that I have seen is that Phillips can break the play up moving forward towards goal much better than Dow, whose best passages always seem to entail going sideways and backwards. And Phillips is a much better kick.

Below is the Footywire comparison between Phillips 2023 and Dow 2024 which is a really fair comparison I think. It shows Phillips was clearly doing better than Dow is now.

The upside with Phillips could come from knowing he has been badly hampered in getting to full fitness in his career. You would think if he was going to be an elite inside mid he would have given us some clue by now, so rule that out for now. But he has shown enough in his life in the game to show he is a decent punt, certainly moreso than Dow.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

The problem with Philips is he has a shit tank and no traits to play anywhere, but midfield.

I suspect that tank issue arises from health problems he has suffered so far. Whether those can be resolved or not, who knows but if the cost is reasonable I'd be trying to find out.

 

[Muddiemoose]

Interesting little tidbit when listening to Short on the Rush hour, and it’s absolutely grain of salt stuff but Short mentioned that Baker had just joined the National Golf Club recently

They only have courses in Victoria so could be seen as odd for a guy who is moving interstate to join up to a club that is only in vic

Like I said absolutely grain of salt stuff but interesting all the same especially with some other little things like how he spoke in the interview post game and obviously the good man Tiger71 confident Baker stays a tiger

 

[Dragonbait0o0]

Interesting little tidbit when listening to Short on the Rush hour, and it’s absolutely grain of salt stuff but Short mentioned that Baker had just joined the National Golf Club recently

They only have courses in Victoria so could be seen as odd for a guy who is moving interstate to join up to a club that is only in vic

Like I said absolutely grain of salt stuff but interesting all the same especially with some other little things like how he spoke in the interview post game and obviously the good man Tiger71 confident Baker stays a tiger

Interesting, I find it funny how the “Journalists” were adamant that baker will leave (Could still happen) but since Tiger71 came out and said that baker is still a chance to re-sign with the tigers, they haven't ran a story about baker since

 

[Jedwards]

Interesting little tidbit when listening to Short on the Rush hour, and it’s absolutely grain of salt stuff but Short mentioned that Baker had just joined the National Golf Club recently

They only have courses in Victoria so could be seen as odd for a guy who is moving interstate to join up to a club that is only in vic

Like I said absolutely grain of salt stuff but interesting all the same especially with some other little things like how he spoke in the interview post game and obviously the good man Tiger71 confident Baker stays a tiger

I get the feeling he has already decided to stay, he and the club are just waiting for the right time to announce it.. possibly after Dusty’s game. Last weeks interview was a dead giveaway that he is happy where he is. (No inside info, just hopeful thinking) - also, I was on board with trading Short, but rethinking it.. I believe keeping him would be better for the clubs culture and players like Baker, who is pretty close with Short from what I gather.

 

[Muddiemoose]

Interesting, I find it funny how the “Journalists” were adamant that baker will leave (Could still happen) but since Tiger71 came out and said that baker is still a chance to re-sign with the tigers, they haven't ran a story about baker since

Absolutely
I still have no idea if he stays or goes but at the start of the year I had pretty much made peace with the fact that he was heading back west but as the year has gone by Im getting more confident that he remains a tiger

 

[beema limapep]

Absolutely
I still have no idea if he stays or goes but at the start of the year I had pretty much made peace with the fact that he was heading back west but as the year has gone by Im getting more confident that he remains a tiger

If he stays and Freo and Shai want to join together, I'd be asking for 2 first rounders and a second. And we would get them too.

 

[Muddiemoose]

If he stays and Freo and Shai want to join together, I'd be asking for 2 first rounders and a second. And we would get them too.

I wouldn’t be moving on Shai at all
As frustrating as he can be he is our best player (especially post Dusty) and a genuine match winner

Depending how optimistic or pessimistic you are on how long before we might be playing finals he will be essential

 

[sportshow]

If he stays and Freo and Shai want to join together, I'd be asking for 2 first rounders and a second. And we would get them too.

Theres not much in his current form that suggests he's invested here unfortunately .... hope i'm wrong .... always been confident of Baker staying

 

[tiger_tough]

Theres not much in his current form that suggests he's invested here unfortunately .... hope i'm wrong .... always been confident of Baker staying

His form is fine. Statistically much the same as his last few years. The team is just worse so the down games stand out more.

 

[Drunken Wookie]

The problem with Philips is hes shit

efa

 

[Muddiemoose]

His form is fine. Statistically much the same as his last few years. The team is just worse so the down games stand out more.

Absolutely, I was just having a look at the team stats before and it’s pretty insane

Leading the club in
Centre clearances
Forward 50 ground ball gets
Marks inside 50
Inside 50s
Goals
Shots at goal
Goal assists
Score involvements

2nd for marks on the lead
3rd for contested possies
4th Metres gained
5th for contested marks
5th for tackles
5th for tackles inside 50


Pretty insane how important he is to both our midfield and our forward line

 

[beema limapep]

I wouldn’t be moving on Shai at all
As frustrating as he can be he is our best player (especially post Dusty) and a genuine match winner

Depending how optimistic or pessimistic you are on how long before we might be playing finals he will be essential

Problem is everyone thinks he is a top 10 player in the comp or almost equal to Martin but he only plays 3 or 4 games at that level a year.

3rd in our bnf in 2023 and =4th in 2022 and 4th in 2021 shows he is a good player but not as good as people think.

If he wants out I would be trading him for 3 good picks. Massive opportunity to improve our list overall.

 

[fargothegreat]

efa

Hard to know with North players though. If they'd drafted Dusty he'd probably have been shit too.

 

[Muddiemoose]

Problem is everyone thinks he is a top 10 player in the comp or almost equal to Martin but he only plays 3 or 4 games at that level a year.

3rd in our bnf in 2023 and =4th in 2022 and 4th in 2021 shows he is a good player but not as good as people think.

If he wants out I would be trading him for 3 good picks. Massive opportunity to improve our list overall.

Tbf Dusty didn’t win a jack Dyer until 2016 when he was 25, the age Bolton is now
Bolton is still growing as a player and will evolve into a leader and becoming more consistent just as Dusty did

 

[beema limapep]

Tbf Dusty didn’t win a jack Dyer until 2016 when he was 25, the age Bolton is now
Bolton is still growing as a player and will evolve into a leader and becoming more consistent just as Dusty did

I hope you are right (if he stays). For mine Dusty under 25yo was always cleaner with one touch hands and much better at executing/finishing. He also was a better kick and didn't go missing on the park for a month.

 

[Muddiemoose]

I hope you are right (if he stays). For mine Dusty under 25yo was always cleaner with one touch hands and much better at executing/finishing. He also was a better kick and didn't go missing on the park for a month.

That’s fair but I think it’s also hard to judge as well especially this year

Shai has been playing a fair bit forward still and our midfield for the most part has been extremely under manned, as has our forward line where in similar years Dusty had the benefit of a strong core of players around him that eventually became the core of our dynasty

I do see the merit in the trade but for me personally I don’t think it would be worth the risk especially since we already have a strong draft hand and other players who could be on the out like Graham

 

[theflea#3]

I see H Reid at the u18’s with his missus watching her brother. Gets back to Victoria at every opportunity and could be worth fronting WCE to suggest the kid wants to come back to Vic , will leave in the next couple anyway so how can we make it happen now? On the other hand I’d hate to lose premiership players the likes of Baker, Bolton, etc but watching all the Dusty highlights this week the kid is the next king and love to see him in Yellow & Black. No one coming thru presents such talent. Thoughts?

 

[Bird Man]

we should be aiming for a 3-4-year turnaround... we have to get this rebuild right before Tassie comes in. There is no generational talent in this draft like a Harley, JHF, Daicos... so I can see us trying to get multiple picks in rather than having the best pick available

 

[Bird Man]

I see H Reid at the u18’s with his missus watching her brother. Gets back to Victoria at every opportunity and could be worth fronting WCE to suggest the kid wants to come back to Vic , will leave in the next couple anyway so how can we make it happen now? On the other hand I’d hate to lose premiership players the likes of Baker, Bolton, etc but watching all the Dusty highlights this week the kid is the next king and love to see him in Yellow & Black. No one coming thru presents such talent. Thoughts?

We would have to be in the window and I'm not sure we would have the draft capital with tassie around the corner

 

[Frustrated Tiger]

I see H Reid at the u18’s with his missus watching her brother. Gets back to Victoria at every opportunity and could be worth fronting WCE to suggest the kid wants to come back to Vic , will leave in the next couple anyway so how can we make it happen now? On the other hand I’d hate to lose premiership players the likes of Baker, Bolton, etc but watching all the Dusty highlights this week the kid is the next king and love to see him in Yellow & Black. No one coming thru presents such talent. Thoughts?

Thoughts? No chance they'd let him go. City would burn down.

 

[Barunga Bullet]

Trying to think of a fizzer that has turned things around at a second club , no one immediately comes to mind

Jay Schultz

 

[fargothegreat]

Thoughts? No chance they'd let him go. City would burn down.

They won't get a choice. He'll be out of there for a massive pay day when his contract ends.

Probably to which ever big Vic club is on the rise at the time.

 

[Noidnadroj]

Theres not much in his current form that suggests he's invested here unfortunately .... hope i'm wrong .... always been confident of Baker staying

Shai is playing predominantly half forward in a poor team. It’s a bloody tough position at the best of times, let alone in a team with a really weakened midfield. Then when he goes into the middle, he doesn’t have any big bodies or experience around him - until last week with TT coming back, and Shai was a different player.

Shai is averaging 18.1 disposals, 2.4 goals & goal assists, 4.3 I50’s plus 3.8 clearances. They are elite numbers for a 70/30 fwd-mid.

(Miers is in a top-4 team and touted as AA : 20.8 disposals, 1.8 goals and GA, 4.1 I50’s and 2.5 clearances).

Or Rankine : 18.6 / 3.1 / 4.2 / 3.8. (Almost identical to Shai except 3.1 goals and GA v 2.4).

So Bolton has room for improvement, but he’s producing as much as could be expected in a team with 2 wins and a decimated midfield.

We cannot afford to let him go for any cost. He’s got ‘Isaac Heeney’ written all over him if he was to go to Freo …. half forward turned permanent midfielder who becomes the best player in the competition.


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