Trade period / National Draft 2024

[_RT_]

 

[Maurice Mitchell]

I've been pondering on this issue that has vexed a few of us.

The answer now seems obvious to me. If you take pick 30 of the draft you are getting the 30th best player and it doesn't matter that is was the 20th best player that was available to you. All the 29 players taken before your pick are out there in the system playing against you(obviously bar any you have taken yourself.) So if pick 20 is shunted to pick 30, it is worth pick 30, end of.

I’ve been saying this for years but it doesn’t seem to register.

The only difference, I guess, is the value diminishes through the draft if you are trading for point value.

Someone who follows it closer than I do can explain it better than me but, yes, those father/son, academy picks were never available.

You get the same guy regardless of whether it’s pick 18 or becomes pick 24.

 

[Maurice Mitchell]

Good post. I wonder what history tells us is the best numbered pick, taking into account flags, B&F’s, AA’s etc…? I know from the top-10 pick-6 js the worst … an absolute disaster of a pick with only a couple of hits.


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Statistical oddity

 

[Lord of the Wings]

I feel like when Carltoon were down the bottom for so long they acted like campaigners in the PSD. Time to return the favour 10 fold.
Who we gonna target?
There'd be plenty of Carlton players getting underpaid with Williams, Curnow, Cripps, McKay, Weitering, Saad, McGovern, De Koening and Walsh taking the lions share.

Bend over Blue dickheads

Kennedy is the one to take

 

[Noidnadroj]

Agree with the above. When people talk about holding Rioli/Bakes ect it makes me realise they don't understand just how bad we are going to be. Those players will make no difference so trade them for first rounders.

Name a time in the history of the AFL a team has proactively traded out quality players in their prime who didn’t want to leave purely for draft picks that ended in team success?

I may be wrong but I don’t believe it has ever happened. Ever wonder why?

Imagine trying to attract quality free agents or trades on lengthy contracts if your club has a history of looking to dump those players for draft picks if things turn pear shaped.

Why don’t we just look to trade out Hopper and TT as well? Or is it better to trade out long term loyal players like Rioli and Bolton rather than ex-GWS players?

Seriously … if proactively trading out quality players for draft picks is a worthy discussion then why not put Hopper or TT up for trade? Wouldn’t they be better to lose than Bolton, Baker or Rioli?



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[richoatthedisco]

RICHMOND​

The club’s draft rivals believe the Tigers are zeroing in on 194cm Eastern Ranges midfielder Josh Smillie. The Tigers just inherited the No.1 pick – on current ladder position – from North Melbourne and will surely keep it, given they are injury-ravaged and the Kangaroos are rising with a bullet. The Tigers would love the No.1 pick to be clear-cut and a Harley Reid type, but some recruiters still believe Smillie and Victorian mid Finn O’Sullivan are the best two kids, then a gap to the rest including Vic Metro mid Jagga Smith, Lions’ father-son prospect Levi Ashcroft and Victorian interceptor Luke Trainor.

The problem is that Smillie hasn’t exactly set the world on fire in his three under-18 games so far, with a clash to come against Vic Country on Sunday.

Smillie showed glimpses in a nine-clearance contest against Western Australia, but has 17, 22 and 20 touches in those U18 games and wouldn’t be a lock for All Australian honours.

So ideally he torches Vic Country, has an even stronger back-end to his season and makes it easy for the Tigers, who need more elite mids to help Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper.

What is the absolute best draft haul Richmond could secure if they wanted to maximise their draft hand? Right now they have pick 1, 21, 36 (Fremantle’s second-rounder), 39 and 41 plus a heap of back-end picks.

They could secure pick 10 to 13 for Baker and two first-rounders for Rioli, albeit the Roos one, which ends up at pick 28 to 30. So they could have pick 1, 8 (the Dogs’ first-rounder for Rioli), pick 12 (for Baker), 21, 28 (the Roos-end-of-first-rounder), 36, 39, and 41.

Those picks will shuffle around with father-son and Next Generation Academy picks, but it would give them three top-15 picks, five top-30 picks and eight selections within 41.

It’s a spectacular starting point for the rejig, restump and rewire under Adem Yze, even before unrestricted free agent Jack Graham considers his future.

CODE Sports

CODE Sports

www.codesports.com.au

What ********er wrote that heap of shit?

From all reports Smillie has no issues winning a hardball. I haven't read anywhere that he is soft, unlike Watts. Tall forwards never make it if they are big softies.

From all reports. I suggest you watch him. Watch him against SA stand over the ball hoping the ball bounces up into his arms to save him going to his knees to get it, then keep watching as Draper goes hard at the pill, gathers and spins in one motion then runs away leaving Smillie standing empty-handed like a big galoot.

Smillie can come through a stoppage and gather the ball provided he doesn't have to bend down too far, but winning the proper hardball is not his one-wood.

Kennedy is the one to take

He's slower than Hopper.

That's another reason not to take Smillie. Our midfield needs pace. Spot the difference between FOS tripping the light fantastic and Smillie tripping over his own feet.

 

[Hamsatma]

I've been pondering on this issue that has vexed a few of us.

The answer now seems obvious to me. If you take pick 30 of the draft you are getting the 30th best player and it doesn't matter that is was the 20th best player that was available to you. All the 29 players taken before your pick are out there in the system playing against you(obviously bar any you have taken yourself.) So if pick 20 is shunted to pick 30, it is worth pick 30, end of.

Completely agree. To take an extreme example, if the top 29 ranked players were all f/s or academy linked, no one would dream of saying pick 30 is pick 1 because you're getting the best (available) player in the draft - it's the same principal where there are fewer linked players

 

[tigersnag]

Kennedy is the one to take

Kennedy, maybe. I know he's a full on religious type. Might stay loyal - even though he left the Giants (the Catholics are the biggest hypocrites in the world lol)

I was thinking more a tagger like Cincotta. Good value - not sure on contract status but he'd be getting unders.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I’ve been saying this for years but it doesn’t seem to register.

The only difference, I guess, is the value diminishes through the draft if you are trading for point value.

Someone who follows it closer than I do can explain it better than me but, yes, those father/son, academy picks were never available.

You get the same guy regardless of whether it’s pick 18 or becomes pick 24.

I suspect you are saying the opposite to what I am saying?

What I think is that let's say you start with the classic wooden spooner 2nd round pick of pick 19 after the season finishes. Let's say after Free Agency insertions this "pick 19" drops to pick 22 before you can even trade it. We can all see and agree that is now worth pick 22 and not pick 19 because you have 3 extra picks in the open draft against you.

Then of course you can possibly trade that pick 22 to a club who may be able to use it for points before there are any further father/son or academy insertions. There will likely only be 1-2 clubs with reason to believe they can do that, because they have the rights to what is likely to be the first of the father-son or academy kids to be bid on. But even at this point of trading your pick 22 along with other later picks for a higher pick(say pick 7) from this club with the highest rated academy kid or f/s, you are going to get sub-value for it, given the premium in trades applied to higher picks. So at this point your pick that started at 19 isn't even worth the real value of pick 22 to trade.

So let's say you hang on to that pick and take it to the draft. And there are 5 academy kids and f/s's taken before pick can be taken. You are now taking it at pick 27. You get the 27th highest rated player to be entering the AFL system that year. What you haven't got is a pick worth what pick 22 might traditionally have been worth, just because you are taking the 22nd best player that was available in the open draft. The reason it isn't worth the traditional value of pick 22 is because there are notionally 5 other better kids out there playing against your pick. After 10 years of this there are 50 odd guys playing in the competition that have been taken above where the first open pick in the second round would traditionally have been taken. Roughly 3 players per club on average. This has the 100% certain effect of diminishing the value of that first open pick in the second round of the draft and all picks after it(and some of the picks before it.)

So once we add in the dumb North Melbourne priority picks, what was once pretty much always the pick that secured the 19th highest rated player in the draft is now the pick that secures the 29th highest rated player in the draft. And its true value is pick 29. Because there are 28 higher rated players now playing against your pick in the system.

 

[tigs2010]

I suspect you are saying the opposite to what I am saying?

What I think is that let's say you start with the classic wooden spooner 2nd round pick of pick 19 after the season finishes. Let's say after Free Agency insertions this "pick 19" drops to pick 22 before you can even trade it. We can all see and agree that is now worth pick 22 and not pick 19 because you have 3 extra picks in the open draft against you.

Then of course you can possibly trade that pick 22 to a club who may be able to use it for points before there are any further father/son or academy insertions. There will likely only be 1-2 clubs with reason to believe they can do that, because they have the rights to what is likely to be the first of the father-son or academy kids to be bid on. But even at this point of trading your pick 22 along with other later picks for a higher pick(say pick 7) from this club with the highest rated academy kid or f/s, you are going to get sub-value for it, given the premium in trades applied to higher picks. So at this point your pick that started at 19 isn't even worth the real value of pick 22 to trade.

So let's say you hang on to that pick and take it to the draft. And there are 5 academy kids and f/s's taken before pick can be taken. You are now taking it at pick 27. You get the 27th highest rated player to be entering the AFL system that year. What you haven't got is a pick worth what pick 22 might traditionally have been worth, just because you are taking the 22nd best player that was available in the open draft. The reason it isn't worth the traditional value of pick 22 is because there are notionally 5 other better kids out there playing against your pick. After 10 years of this there are 50 odd guys playing in the competition that have been taken above where the first open pick in the second round would traditionally have been taken. Roughly 3 players per club on average. This has the 100% certain effect of diminishing the value of that first open pick in the second round of the draft and all picks after it(and some of the picks before it.)

So once we add in the dumb North Melbourne priority picks, what was once pretty much always the pick that secured the 19th highest rated player in the draft is now the pick that secures the 29th highest rated player in the draft. And its true value is pick 29. Because there are 28 higher rated players now playing against your pick in the system.

The FA one is a good point that I missed. Naturally that pushes the pick back. But if we trade for that pick, which would be after compo is given out (say it becomes 22) just because teams match ahead doesn't make the pick change. We will still get the same player was my point. It's irrelevant when making the trade that 20 guys might get bid on or 2 guys get bid on. It's the same pick against the open pool*


*it could go up if someone doesn't match but not sure that happens all that often at pointy end.

 

[tiger_tough]

What ********er wrote that heap of shit?


From all reports. I suggest you watch him. Watch him against SA stand over the ball hoping the ball bounces up into his arms to save him going to his knees to get it, then keep watching as Draper goes hard at the pill, gathers and spins in one motion then runs away leaving Smillie standing empty-handed like a big galoot.

Smillie can come through a stoppage and gather the ball provided he doesn't have to bend down too far, but winning the proper hardball is not his one-wood.


He's slower than Hopper.

That's another reason not to take Smillie. Our midfield needs pace. Spot the difference between FOS tripping the light fantastic and Smillie tripping over his own feet.

Yeah, including one report from a friend of mine who is a full time recruiter of an AFL club, but I'm sure you know better...

**** me the armchair recruiting experts are everywhere in here all of a sudden now that we have am early pick.

 

[tigs2010]

Hoping we pick Smillie for richoatthedisco reacts.

we can worry about best available next year when we win spoon again

 

[tiger_tough]

Clarke?

Yeah him too. There was no need for Grimes to retire to open up a spot is the point

 

[richoatthedisco]

Yeah, including one report from a friend of mine who is a full time recruiter of an AFL club, but I'm sure you know better...

**** me the armchair recruiting experts are everywhere in here all of a sudden now that we have am early pick.

Your friend's a dumb campaigner.

 

[Maurice Mitchell]

I suspect you are saying the opposite to what I am saying?

What I think is that let's say you start with the classic wooden spooner 2nd round pick of pick 19 after the season finishes. Let's say after Free Agency insertions this "pick 19" drops to pick 22 before you can even trade it. We can all see and agree that is now worth pick 22 and not pick 19 because you have 3 extra picks in the open draft against you.

Then of course you can possibly trade that pick 22 to a club who may be able to use it for points before there are any further father/son or academy insertions. There will likely only be 1-2 clubs with reason to believe they can do that, because they have the rights to what is likely to be the first of the father-son or academy kids to be bid on. But even at this point of trading your pick 22 along with other later picks for a higher pick(say pick 7) from this club with the highest rated academy kid or f/s, you are going to get sub-value for it, given the premium in trades applied to higher picks. So at this point your pick that started at 19 isn't even worth the real value of pick 22 to trade.

So let's say you hang on to that pick and take it to the draft. And there are 5 academy kids and f/s's taken before pick can be taken. You are now taking it at pick 27. You get the 27th highest rated player to be entering the AFL system that year. What you haven't got is a pick worth what pick 22 might traditionally have been worth, just because you are taking the 22nd best player that was available in the open draft. The reason it isn't worth the traditional value of pick 22 is because there are notionally 5 other better kids out there playing against your pick. After 10 years of this there are 50 odd guys playing in the competition that have been taken above where the first open pick in the second round would traditionally have been taken. Roughly 3 players per club on average. This has the 100% certain effect of diminishing the value of that first open pick in the second round of the draft and all picks after it(and some of the picks before it.)

So once we add in the dumb North Melbourne priority picks, what was once pretty much always the pick that secured the 19th highest rated player in the draft is now the pick that secures the 29th highest rated player in the draft. And its true value is pick 29. Because there are 28 higher rated players now playing against your pick in the system.

I get all that, but you know going in what the rules are and they aren’t changing much in future.

The FA compo’s are seriously annoying. I’d hate to have a pick stuck behind a couple of those. That is where you don’t end up with the same player.

Can’t let North finish below us. Who knows how that could play out. Too risky

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I get all that, but you know going in what the rules are and they aren’t changing much in future.

The FA compo’s are seriously annoying. I’d hate to have a pick stuck behind a couple of those. That is where you don’t end up with the same player.

Can’t let North finish below us. Who knows how that could play out. Too risky

From what I understand the rules are going to change a fair bit to ameliorate this f/s and academy pick insertion effect. Clubs may need to at least use picks from the same round or the next round to match bids, which could mean some bids are matched by multiple picks in the 20 for instance. Unless they **** the system right up and clubs work out clever ways to keep using the lowest picks in round 2 to match bids.

 

[tiger_tough]

Your friend's a dumb campaigner.

Yeah mate, you'd know better than a guy who does it as an actual job. He was also in the mix to take over from Matt Clarke

 

[Meteoric Rise]

The FA one is a good point that I missed. Naturally that pushes the pick back. But if we trade for that pick, which would be after compo is given out (say it becomes 22) just because teams match ahead doesn't make the pick change. We will still get the same player was my point. It's irrelevant when making the trade that 20 guys might get bid on or 2 guys get bid on. It's the same pick against the open pool*


*it could go up if someone doesn't match but not sure that happens all that often at pointy end.

You are correct you are still getting the same player you were always getting. But that doesn't mean the value of the pick hasn't diminished. He now has to play football against say 28 players that are rated better than him. So the pick is worth that, the 29th most valuable player in the draft.

 

[SA_Tiger11]

Whoever we get they need to be a competitive campaigner who hates losing.

 

[tigs2010]

You are correct you are still getting the same player you were always getting. But that doesn't mean the value of the pick hasn't diminished. He now has to play football against say 28 players that are rated better than him. So the pick is worth that, the 29th most valuable player in the draft.

Yes but then you know that when you trade for that pick that x number of players are going to be bid ahead of that pick.

 

[HumanMeatball]

The only way I see us getting two top picks for 1 is the saints. They could have pick 4 then get 5 as compo for Josh battle

26

Josh Battle

Age

26

Ht

193cm

Wt

93kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.9

3star

K

9.0

3star

HB

3.9

3star

M

5.0

5star

T

2.4

4star

MG

196.8

3star

D

11.0

3star

K

7.3

3star

HB

3.8

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

1.8

3star

MG

142.8

3star

D

10.8

3star

K

6.2

3star

HB

4.6

4star

M

3.4

4star

T

2.0

4star

MG

175.6

3star

as a free agent on big coin

 

[Azzleberry]

I reckon if we play hardball we could get both of the earlier firsts from GC for Rioli. Whichever one is left gets burned on Lombard, so they may as well take a couple of later picks from us and give us both firsts.

Out: Rioli, pick 36, 39, 41 + a future 3rd

In: Pick 7 & Pick 8

Be left with 1,7,8,21,54,57,66,69

then look to bundle late picks and get another 1-2 around 30-40 or into next years draft

 

[richoatthedisco]

Yeah mate, you'd know better than a guy who does it as an actual job. He was also in the mix to take over from Matt Clarke

Ah yes, Matt Clarke. Master recruiter. Thanks for proving my point.

You know who else had an actual job in recruiting? The bloke who took Jono O'Rourke at pick 2. The guy who took Billings ahead of Bont. The bloke who drafted Watts, Scully, Trengove and Toumpas. All the professional recruiters who did it as an actual job who had Bryce Gibbs at number 1.

 

[TimmytheTiger]

Name a time in the history of the AFL a team has proactively traded out quality players in their prime who didn’t want to leave purely for draft picks that ended in team success?

I may be wrong but I don’t believe it has ever happened. Ever wonder why?

Imagine trying to attract quality free agents or trades on lengthy contracts if your club has a history of looking to dump those players for draft picks if things turn pear shaped.

Why don’t we just look to trade out Hopper and TT as well? Or is it better to trade out long term loyal players like Rioli and Bolton rather than ex-GWS players?

Seriously … if proactively trading out quality players for draft picks is a worthy discussion then why not put Hopper or TT up for trade? Wouldn’t they be better to lose than Bolton, Baker or Rioli?



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Collingwood? 2020 Adam Treloar? Granted they had salary cap issues.

 

[HumanMeatball]

The only blokes we will lose who don’t retire or are delisted will be baker, graham and martin. And that alone could net 2 second round picks and one first. That’s plenty

 

[the underdog]

What if..

- Dan Rioli to GC for pick 8 and 20

..then

- Liam Baker

7

Liam Baker

Age

26

Ht

173cm

Wt

72kg

Pos.

D/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.7

4star

K

7.8

3star

HB

7.9

5star

M

3.2

3star

T

2.6

4star

MG

222.2

3star

D

14.6

4star

K

6.8

3star

HB

7.9

4star

M

3.8

4star

T

1.8

3star

MG

191.9

3star

D

14.4

4star

K

6.2

3star

HB

8.2

5star

M

1.6

2star

T

1.8

4star

MG

224.2

4star

+ pick 8 to WCE for pick 3

Ins:
- pick 3 and pick 20 (probably pushed out to 25-28)

Outs:
- Dan Rioli + Liam Baker

7

Liam Baker

Age

26

Ht

173cm

Wt

72kg

Pos.

D/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.7

4star

K

7.8

3star

HB

7.9

5star

M

3.2

3star

T

2.6

4star

MG

222.2

3star

D

14.6

4star

K

6.8

3star

HB

7.9

4star

M

3.8

4star

T

1.8

3star

MG

191.9

3star

D

14.4

4star

K

6.2

3star

HB

8.2

5star

M

1.6

2star

T

1.8

4star

MG

224.2

4star

We draft two of Smillie/ FOS / Jagga and set ourselves up for the next decade.