Trade period / National Draft 2024

Which out of contract player should we trade?


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to get two of FOS/Smilie/Smith/Lalor we are going to need two top 5/6 picks. If we trade Rioli it's much more likely we end up with one of them then draft a Hotton/Reid/Travaglia/Langford with the suns pick, maybe Lalor is a chance if he finishes the season poorly and Langford, Draper continue to rise
 
I'd say it's a combination of the 2 with more weight being given to those who have had sustained performances across the period from U16s through to their draft year, over a kid who explodes from nowhere in 1 year.
The best recruiters pick the kid who will be the best player.

They are drafted based on what they are and what they can become IMO.

Of course it does, plenty of kids go backwards and even more explode later, its naive to think they dont.
I'm not talking about plenty of kids. I'm talking about Finn O'Sullivan. The kid's special.

Joel Selwood slipped to pick 7 because of injury. How long do you reckon it took for the Carlton recruiter who drafted the better-performed draft year player Bryce Gibbs to regret that call?

Sonsie was a potential pick one going into his draft year.
Sonsie didn't play any football in his botttom-aged year due to Covid. FOS was All-Australian. There's a reason your apples aren't orange.

Great example of how fast things can change.
In a global pandemic.

This is true. Ashton Moir was touted as a contender for last year's no.1 pick in his bottom age year but ended up at pick 29.
But it's hard to compare FOS to Moir as both players play 2 different positions.
As tigs says, Moir was overhyped based on some eye-catching skills. He then stunk it up for a year, which is why he slipped.

FOS hasn't been stinking it up, he's been injured. It's fine for people to want Jagga at 1, that's your prerogative. I'd be happy with him at 7, or if we win a few games and miss out on FOS and Lalor I'll be happy to get him at 3 or whatever.

But my pick at 1 is FOS (Harvey Langford still thinks he's the number 1 too, btw.). And I'm calling it, he will be a better player in the AFL than Jagga.
 

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We’re going to have to Trade Rioli aren’t we?
Dunno. We have 1 & 21, probably 15 from Brissy, say 23 from WC and maybe 22 for Graham if Cleary is to be believed. We apparently have enough points for pick 6, obviously to gain a first you pay a premium but we should still have leftover.

That's a lot of picks! 8 & 20 gives us 7 in the top 23 including all of 20-23 :drunk:

I very much doubt we will want more than 5 ND kids. Maybe 2 of those 20-23 can be converted to F1 picks given the draft is deep.
 
Would the eagles trade pick 3 for picks 7 (Rioli) and 12 (Baker) ?

It would hypothetically leave us with picks 1, 3, 16 (Brisbane points swap), 21
 
Not sure.

Caddy was all athleticism. Bit short if I remember properly. He's shown he can play AFL. Bit of a risk, so like a few this year.
Cadman was always likely. Not sure anyone this year is yet in that class.
Amiss was similar to some this year in that he was a lead mark kick player, with limited other tools. So not the clear complete top level player. Like a lot this year.

I am definitely no expert, but the draft gurus are saying that quite a few talls are coming through.

I forgot to say Trainor is elite this year. Tall KPD. Weakness against 200cm KPFs, but otherwise elite.


Appreciate it mate. I’m no draft watcher, but eye test tells me that shanahan and Armstrong especially look pretty impressive to me with speed, athleticism and ability to clunk marks. I like those 2 ahead of the rest and if we end up getting a pick around 9-13 for Baker, hoping we take one of them
 
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The best recruiters pick the kid who will be the best player.
No doubt, all I'm saying is that they would do it by looking at not just the one year but by combining what they've seen in the 2-3 seasons prior to their draft year.

I believe any recruiter who had a kid like FOS rated as the number 1 would be looking at this year and seeing how diligent he has been in his recovery from a couple of significant injuries and also how he finishes off the season to remove any doubts that would have been raised by these issues.
 
No doubt, all I'm saying is that they would do it by looking at not just the one year but by combining what they've seen in the 2-3 seasons prior to their draft year.

I believe any recruiter who had a kid like FOS rated as the number 1 would be looking at this year and seeing how diligent he has been in his recovery from a couple of significant injuries and also how he finishes off the season to remove any doubts that would have been raised by these issues.
There has never been a pick 1 who had a shit year, that was picked because he was great at aged 16. Injuries, form, attitude etc has seen many a kid slide.

You dont use Pick 1 on a kid who hasnt performed in 12 months.
 

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Appreciate it mate. I’m no draft watcher, but eye test tells me that shanahan and Armstrong especially look pretty impressive to me with speed, athleticism and ability to clunk marks. I like those 2 ahead of the rest and if we end up getting a pick around 9-13 for Baker, hoping we take one of them

Yeah, the draft watchers I've seen reckon that there are a number of talls with a very high ceiling this year. But only Trainer has the track record. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out. Talls often come on late in the draft year. So this might be a great year for talls, or not. I'm hoping we get a couple of good ones. Or at least one really good AFL level KPF.

But right now as far as I am aware, there is potential, but only one guy that has proven himself to be 'elite'. Please let that potential come through and give us a lot of good choice.
 
If we finish with pick 1 and saints get first round battle compensation.
Do we trade pick 1 and 21 for 4 and 5 and maybe a later pick or two then trade basically the rest of our picks to gc for pick 8 or 10. Which after bidding should be able to get us 3 picks in the top 12 or so
 
If we finish with pick 1 and saints get first round battle compensation.
Do we trade pick 1 and 21 for 4 and 5 and maybe a later pick or two then trade basically the rest of our picks to gc for pick 8 or 10. Which after bidding should be able to get us 3 picks in the top 12 or so
Just dont think the pick 1 value is that high this year for anyone to do that with us. no reid and it's even af in the first round.
 
If we finish with pick 1 and saints get first round battle compensation.
Do we trade pick 1 and 21 for 4 and 5 and maybe a later pick or two then trade basically the rest of our picks to gc for pick 8 or 10. Which after bidding should be able to get us 3 picks in the top 12 or so

Nah Smillie seems unique as he is a 194cm elite mid I’d get him with pick 1 and then get others to build around him.

It’s important to get our spine right with high end picks like Carlton have.
 
Presumably we have crazy cap space next year with Martin out etc. Can we sweeten trade deals by offering to pay some of the outgoing players' salaries?

Rioli to Suns is meh, but if we can effectively trade salary cap -> draft capital at the same time I reckon it makes it way more attractive for both teams.
 
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