UK UK general election, July 4

[Stokey]

Farage wins.

 

[Ballarat Bob]

Farage wins.

It was going too well ....well he can't hide now I suppose.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Kemi Badenoch holds by 2500 votes after a 22% swing

 

[Forward Press]

It was going too well ....well he can't hide now I suppose.

In related news, Corbyn is re-elected as well.

Should be an interesting few years in UK politics with Corbyn free of the party shackles and Farage being Farage (is it ever not interesting, though?)

 

[Cap]

I could be wrong but from memory it was proportional representation that was rejected, not preference voting.

EDIT: I was wrong, damn useless memory lol.

It was pre brevity, so let's face it, UK has been way too much of a shitshow since then to remember it all

 

[Hornberger]

First past the post is shit, but Lol. Conservative + Reforms would no doubt be all for it at this stage, but why would Labour? It wasn't offered when Lib Dems were eating into their vote at times.

Labour should be smart enough to recognise that is an anti-Conservative vote and not a pro-Labour vote, and while FTPT favoured them this time around, there is no guarantee that it will be the same next time and it has historically has worked against them.

This could be a rare instance that Labour'sand the Conservative's interests are aligned in favour of voting reform. As things currently stand, preferential voting would favour the major parties and proportional representation would favour the minor parties.

 

[Stokey]

Interesting BBC just saying that Labour gains are very modest and they have won most of their seats off the Con/Ref split vote.
Said it's very much the Tories losing and not Labour winning

 

[Hornberger]

Interesting BBC just saying that Labour gains are very modest and they have won most of their seats off the Con/Ref split vote.
Said it's very much the Tories losing and not Labour winning

For every vote Labour has won from the Conservatives, they have basically lost one vote to the Greens.

 

[beez]

"An umbrella on day one may have helped"

- Jacob Rees-Mogg.

Great book title.

 

[Pakenhamsaint]

The updated forecast.

LAB 405
CON 154
LD 56
SNP 6
PC 4
REF 4
GRN 2
OTHERS 19

 

[Ballarat Bob]

In related news, Corbyn is re-elected as well.

Should be an interesting few years in UK politics with Corbyn free of the party shackles and Farage being Farage (is it ever not interesting, though?)

Corbyn has been out of Labour in all but name for a while now. Don't really think he will get much of a platform and he really hasn't changed his tune much lately.
Not sure what Farage will add to be honest. He will have to come up with some solid policies and potentially unite his parliamentary team. He may keep his GB news gig so he has a regular outlet to spout off. I am more interested to see if the right wing media will dump the Conservatives and back Farage.

 

[Cap]

In related news, Corbyn is re-elected as well.

Should be an interesting few years in UK politics with Corbyn free of the party shackles and Farage being Farage (is it ever not interesting, though?)

I would love to get interviews with the people that voted for either of these guys.

I'm assuming they'd be similar in as many ways as opposite

 

[Gough]

Corbyn has been out of Labour in all but name for a while now. Don't really think he will get much of a platform and he really hasn't changed his tune much lately.
Not sure what Farage will add to be honest. He will have to come up with some solid policies and potentially unite his parliamentary team. He may keep his GB news gig so he has a regular outlet to spout off. I am more interested to see if the right wing media will dump the Conservatives and back Farage.

Not with four seats. Farage is busy talking a massive game but in reality they're One Nation on Thames.

 

[spinynorman]

Corbyn has been out of Labour in all but name for a while now. Don't really think he will get much of a platform and he really hasn't changed his tune much lately.
Not sure what Farage will add to be honest. He will have to come up with some solid policies and potentially unite his parliamentary team. He may keep his GB news gig so he has a regular outlet to spout off. I am more interested to see if the right wing media will dump the Conservatives and back Farage.

I think the difference is that Corbyn spent most of the last couple of years fighting to get back into the party, where now there’ll be an attempt to build a new left wing coalition, especially given a lot of the people he notionally would’ve were suspended or disendorsed late to stop it from happening this time around.

 

[Gough]

The updated forecast.

LAB 405
CON 154
LD 56
SNP 6
PC 4
REF 4
GRN 2
OTHERS 19

Be interesting to see if the media can give equal airtime to Plaid Cymru as they give to Reform.

 

[Gough]

Johnny Mercer and Therese Coffey both go bye bye.

 

[QuietB]

The SNP collapse is a pretty big story, far bigger than Reform taking a few seats from Conservatives. But it's reform getting early headlines despite them being the 5th biggest story.

Biggest story:

Tory collapse
Labour landslide and massive majority
Lib Dems huge gains
SNP collapse
Reform starting
Sinn Fein majority in NI seats.

Not giving Labor credit for anything is the first rule of the right wing media.

 

[NSWCROW]

How many brexiteers lost their seat ?

 

[Pakenhamsaint]

Liz Truss may lose her seat

 

[Pakenhamsaint]

Not giving Labor credit for anything is the first rule of the right wing media.

Not this time around. The data is saying the split in conservative vote is allowing Labour to win seats

 

[Pakenhamsaint]

Labour has had a bit of scare. Hanging onto Ilford North by only 500 votes. Gaza is impacting some seats.


There's also been an update in the projections.

LAB 410
CON 144
LD 58
SNP 8
REF 4
OTHERS 26

 

[Hank Scorpion]

This is both equally amazing and equally disappointing based on the anticipation.

A record number of cabinet ministers gone, but Hunt holds on. Sunak holds comfortably.

 

[Pakenhamsaint]

This is both equally amazing and equally disappointing based on the anticipation.

A record number of cabinet ministers gone, but Hunt holds on. Sunak holds comfortably.

Amazingly he wants to stick around.

Surely if you're a Tory you're telling him to take a hike

 

[Upgrayedd]

Quite a thrashing, but as people said, it's a mix of people wanting labour and the people punishing the Tories of an absolute shitshow since 2019. Seeing the liberal Democrats also crush it tells me it's most likely that

 

[Saint]

Jeremy Corbyn wins.

The seat I lived in used to be a safe Tory seat, the Cons MP lives in Kent, but wanders up every few years for elections and has now been sent packing, losing by 9 points.

The closest Labour had ever come was 12-13 points behind back in the 1997-2001 Blair peak years.

Hertford and Stortford (UK Parliament constituency) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Unlike surrounding Essex areas to the east (which were Brexit seats @ 68%), this was a 51% remain seat.

Harlow next door has also flipped, and that was 68% leave. 22% going to reform cost the Tories the seat, losing by only 6%. Harlow is the white-bred Cranbourne single mums of Essex. There's a big library in the middle of town between Primarni and Asda and I've never seen anyone go into it.

It's not as big a landslide FOR Labour as the Blair years, because many of the seats have been won by Labour because Reform has split the Conservative vote. In these seats, Labour got less than 40%