Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 2

[Gethelred]

This is a sensitive area for some. With that in mind, I'm going to remind a few posters a few things:

• personal attacks are against forum rules. From this point, any attacks that are directed at another poster will be treated with a warning, then infractions and threadbans if it continues.
• the spread of misinformation is also against the rules. This is taken very seriously by moderation, and you will be asked to support your opinion from time to time. If you cannot satisfy this, you will be provided an opportunity to retract your post; if you do not, you will receive an infraction and a threadban on that basis.

This is a forum for adults, and I'd appreciate you all treating each other appropriately.

 

[wannabejack]

Ukraine Could Eventually Retake Crimea. How Would Crimeans Respond?

The peninsula had a complicated political history even before Russia seized control in 2014.

www.thebulwark.com

In a 1991 referendum, Crimeans voted overwhelmingly to become their own autonomous republic within the USSR.
In 1994, 83 percent of Crimean voters supported allowing themselves dual Russian-Ukrainian citizenship.
Throughout the 1990s and 2000s, Crimea voted reliably with most of southern and eastern Ukraine in supporting candidates and parties friendly to Moscow. But in 2010, when Sergei Aksyonov led a party called “Russian Unity” in Crimea’s regional legislative elections on a platform of joining Russia, his party received just 4 percent of the vote.

At the same time, the Russian authorities imported new residents to replace those who had left and dilute those who remained.
The tactic is classically Soviet: If there’s a public opinion problem, change the public.

It’s possible that a negotiated settlement could result in a compromise on Crimea, possibly including granting the peninsula full independence from both Ukraine and Russia. Such an outcome is hard to imagine now, given the momentum the Ukrainians have at the moment, but it’s within the realm of possibility that Ukraine will ultimately not march all the way to Yalta.

Ukraine’s future security and economic viability depend on Crimea not being held by a hostile power.

 

[mighty tiges]

 

[mighty tiges]

The real motivation for Russia's invasion has finally been revealed!

 

[Visions]

Yes, but there's only two approach routes, close together and Ukr doesn't have any navy left. So it's a land invasion along two narrow areas.

It'd be Gallipolil/Thermopylae all over again. Even the worst troops and artillery could hold that defensive line.

Not if the Kerch bridge is out of action and they cant supply them. Becomes a Kherson type situation where they are isolated.

 

[Zidane98]

Some possible exit strategies for Vlad

Hey Putin, where you gonna run to?

As the Kremlin’s war falters, the president could be forced to consider an exit strategy. Where will he find the warmest reception?

www.politico.eu

 

[CD Xbow]

The real motivation for Russia's invasion has finally been revealed!

I thought in Russia they went to the Lavrov.

Not if the Kerch bridge is out of action and they cant supply them. Becomes a Kherson type situation where they are isolated.

Yes, I would have thought a policy of attrition in Crimea would be likely and possibly successful. UKR have surprised us with their capabilities before and RF have surprised us by their lack of capability.

 

[ibd77]

Some possible exit strategies for Vlad

Hey Putin, where you gonna run to?

As the Kremlin’s war falters, the president could be forced to consider an exit strategy. Where will he find the warmest reception?

www.politico.eu

Warmest reception? Where is the nearest active volcano?

 

[Malifice]

Thanks Malifice, I don't necessarily agree with all your posts but they've been interesting to read. So would you say that Russia has currently met all its war objectives? Which means maybe there's not as much angst amongst the Russian leadership as we think there is??

Largely yes, they have what they want.

Current angst would be largely directed at holding on to what they have, and their faltering capacity to do so, and Ukraine looking like it might even undo Russias gains.

The only reason they'd push on from here to fully take Kiev etc, is to implement Regime change (and install a Pro Russian government).

That option is still on the table but looking increasingly unlikely, barring a further escalation.

 

[Profop]

Largely yes, they have what they want.

Current angst would be largely directed at holding on to what they have, and their faltering capacity to do so, and Ukraine looking like it might even undo Russias gains.

The only reason they'd push on from here to fully take Kiev etc, is to implement Regime change (and install a Pro Russian government).

That option is still on the table but looking increasingly unlikely, barring a further escalation.

Mate they are in full retreat how in the world is pushing on to fully take Kyiv on the table?

And if Kyiv was actually on the table again why wouldn't they have done that at the start when they had their 'diversion' in the north at the start of the war. I mean another way to have gotten their supposed aim of control of the Black Sea would have been to actually take Kyiv topple the government and put their own in

You're not making a lot of sense in here

 

[Zidane98]

It is Kyiv. Not Kiev.

 

[footyfan1978]

Can't wait for the West to start trusting the next Russian tyrant. Wasnt Medvedev great! /s.

It's not just Putin, it's the kleptocratic oligarchic system which needs changing.

Agreed. If Russia stays the same and appoints the same type of leader nothing really changes.
Personally I am hoping this war goes so bad for Russia it more than just a change of leader.
But at this point we all simply guess what the future holds.
I see Russia as broken as a country mentally/socally so hoping it broken up into smaller countries or they so badly defeated the country itself removes all the cronies, but I can't see that happening so hopefully it defeated so bad radical change is imposed on them and it in no negotiating position. It forced to work and create new relationships with rest of the world after this. **** knows how, but here is hoping.

 

[footyfan1978]

It is Kyiv. Not Kiev.

I heard some brain dead American call it Keith last week.

 

[footyfan1978]

Russia has very consistently shown us that even the least favourable assumptions in their favour are too favourable.

Poorly trained and equipped troops who don't want to be there and have no motivation to fight doesn't appear to be a winning base of troops.

Yes, nothing would surprise me how bad it could go for Russia.

 

[ibd77]

Agreed. If Russia stays the same and appoints the same type of leader nothing really changes.
Personally I am hoping this war goes so bad for Russia it more than just a change of leader.
But at this point we all simply guess what the future holds.
I see Russia as broken as a country mentally/socally so hoping it broken up into smaller countries or they so badly defeated the country itself removes all the cronies, but I can't see that happening so hopefully it defeated so bad radical change is imposed on them and it in no negotiating position. It forced to work and create new relationships with rest of the world after this. * knows how, but here is hoping.

Russia will never change as their apathetic people will allow the next tyrant to step up and dominate. There isnt enough activists in Russia to push for constitutional change and direction. Chances are the next government will employ a faux democracy only to rig the electoral system in their favour. The new government is most likely going to be led by another hardline miltary leader.

 

[footyfan1978]

It is interesting how the open talk of the word war is no longer out of their rambles now.
This just shows how the mental building blocks for all the bullshit propaganda has even fallen apart for them.
Even the most braindead Russki will eventually wake up to reality at some point and realise none of these people you can trust.

 

[footyfan1978]

Russia will never change as their apathetic people will allow the next tyrant to step up and dominate. There isnt enough activists in Russia to push for constitutional change and direction.

Agreed, that is why I am hoping Russia as we know it is no more after this war as a nation because then real societal change can happen. If that means 2, 3 or more countries make up what was previously Russia, that would be way better outcome than this war just negotiated to an end with Russia still the same place.

 

[footyfan1978]

It is Kyiv. Not Kiev.

I'm sure it actually was just an honest mistake. If you being calling it Kiev all your life, it easy enough to do.

 

[Visions]

This is Russia. The country that is literally sending 300,000 barely trained conscripts to hold ground, treats its own Soldiers (especially the conscripts) like utter s**t, and has a long and storied history of throwing its own men at enemy forces - in waves - as diversions.

Heck, these guys basically invented sacrificial units.

They positioned a massive force outside the capital, forcing Ukraine to concentrate on them. Meanwhile, they took the key cities and territory in the East they actually wanted.

Yes, they lost thousands of highly skilled soldiers including the decimation of the VDV.

All because Kyiv was a feint bro!

 

[Lethality]

Yes, they lost thousands of highly skilled soldiers including the decimation of the VDV.

All because Kyiv was a feint bro!

Not to mention all the vehicles they donated.

 

[Visions]

Largely yes, they have what they want.

Current angst would be largely directed at holding on to what they have, and their faltering capacity to do so, and Ukraine looking like it might even undo Russias gains.

The only reason they'd push on from here to fully take Kiev etc, is to implement Regime change (and install a Pro Russian government).

That option is still on the table but looking increasingly unlikely, barring a further escalation.

Despite your commentary to the contrary, this is what they attempted to do at the start of the invasion.

It wasn’t any sort of diversion, they attempted to take over Kyiv and instill a Russian friendly government within a few days.

Thats the way Russia works with invading other countries. Czech invasion in 1968 a prime example. Took them only a few days to instill a friendly Moscow government.

 

[Cap]

 

[Jbudds]

Ukraine Could Eventually Retake Crimea. How Would Crimeans Respond?

The peninsula had a complicated political history even before Russia seized control in 2014.

www.thebulwark.com

In a 1991 referendum, Crimeans voted overwhelmingly to become their own autonomous republic within the USSR.
In 1994, 83 percent of Crimean voters supported allowing themselves dual Russian-Ukrainian citizenship.
Throughout the 1990s and 2000s, Crimea voted reliably with most of southern and eastern Ukraine in supporting candidates and parties friendly to Moscow. But in 2010, when Sergei Aksyonov led a party called “Russian Unity” in Crimea’s regional legislative elections on a platform of joining Russia, his party received just 4 percent of the vote.

At the same time, the Russian authorities imported new residents to replace those who had left and dilute those who remained.
The tactic is classically Soviet: If there’s a public opinion problem, change the public.

It’s possible that a negotiated settlement could result in a compromise on Crimea, possibly including granting the peninsula full independence from both Ukraine and Russia. Such an outcome is hard to imagine now, given the momentum the Ukrainians have at the moment, but it’s within the realm of possibility that Ukraine will ultimately not march all the way to Yalta.

Ukraine’s future security and economic viability depend on Crimea not being held by a hostile power.

Here's an idea. If you want to be Russian, leave Crimea and go to Russia?

 

[GhostofJimJess]

Oddly enough we kind of have & do. Australia has always allied ourselves with the dominant naval power of the time. First Britian and then the USA, we have gone to war to assist these powers. So in WW2 when the axis threatened to take control of the Suez Canal, Australian forces fought them.

If Eygpt was ever stupid enough to deny US commerce access to the Suez Canal, than Australian forces maybe involved in the US's reversal of this situation. China is attempting to seal off the South China Sea, if they decide to block US commerce, there is almost certain to be a naval war, with our involvement.

But of course Turkey was not and has no intention even now of blocking Russian commerce.

Yep, good point and well made.

I guess I should've framed it as you don't necessarily need to control a waterway in order to access and profit from it, merely be friends with those who do. Or at the very least, not be enemies with them.

Surely even Russia could've easily managed this without being total campaigners.

 

[Malifice]

Despite your commentary to the contrary, this is what they attempted to do at the start of the invasion.

It wasn’t any sort of diversion, they attempted to take over Kyiv and instill a Russian friendly government within a few days.

I highly doubt that. If they wanted to take Kiev, they would have shelled the living shit out of it.

They've actually been holding back (relatively speaking).

Russia have 1,750 BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launchers:

A battalion of 18 of these trucks, is able to launch 720 (20 kilo HE) rockets in a single volley, up to 30kms away.

Even assuming 1/3 of their Rocket artillery arsenal is operative (500 or so), that's an insane amount of firepower they can bring to bear.

Russian doctrine is basically to shell the living shit out a target with these things. Literally pound it into dust. Then roll in Motor Rifle Brigades (Armor and AFV's).

They've held back so far, and havent gone down this path.

 

[Mateyman]

I highly doubt that. If they wanted to take Kiev, they would have shelled the living s**t out of it.

They've actually been holding back (relatively speaking).

Russia have 1,750 BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launchers:

A battalion of 18 of these trucks, is able to launch 720 (20 kilo HE) rockets in a single volley, up to 30kms away.

Even assuming 1/3 of their Rocket artillery arsenal is operative (500 or so), that's an insane amount of firepower they can bring to bear.

Russian doctrine is basically to shell the living s**t out a target with these things. Literally pound it into dust. Then roll in Motor Rifle Brigades (Armor and AFV's).

They've held back so far, and havent gone down this path.

Right so Russia are after 8 months and a 'partial' mobilisation still not really trying at the moment... because?