Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 2

[Gethelred]

This is a sensitive area for some. With that in mind, I'm going to remind a few posters a few things:

• personal attacks are against forum rules. From this point, any attacks that are directed at another poster will be treated with a warning, then infractions and threadbans if it continues.
• the spread of misinformation is also against the rules. This is taken very seriously by moderation, and you will be asked to support your opinion from time to time. If you cannot satisfy this, you will be provided an opportunity to retract your post; if you do not, you will receive an infraction and a threadban on that basis.

This is a forum for adults, and I'd appreciate you all treating each other appropriately.

 

[Theseventhhamster]

Kiev

It really isn't that hard. Maybe try reading more broadly than your current sources?

 

[Malifice]

Yes, they lost thousands of highly skilled soldiers including the decimation of the VDV.

Yeah. Thats literally textbook military doctrine.

Send troops somewhere where the enemy cant ignore. Then (while your opponent is moving troops to deal with that enemy) take the areas elsewhere that you actually want.

The Russians have a long history of literally throwing their own troops into machine gun fire as diversions. If you think they're not still doing it, you'd be mistaken.

 

[Profop]

I highly doubt that. If they wanted to take Kiev, they would have shelled the living s**t out of it.

They've actually been holding back (relatively speaking).

Russia have 1,750 BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launchers:

A battalion of 18 of these trucks, is able to launch 720 (20 kilo HE) rockets in a single volley, up to 30kms away.

Even assuming 1/3 of their Rocket artillery arsenal is operative (500 or so), that's an insane amount of firepower they can bring to bear.

Russian doctrine is basically to shell the living s**t out a target with these things. Literally pound it into dust. Then roll in Motor Rifle Brigades (Armor and AFV's).

They've held back so far, and havent gone down this path.

Probably have held back because with their rubbish logistics and the fact they’re plans are leaking like a sieve those artillery would end up amazingly easy pickings for Ukrainian HIMARS

 

[footyfan1978]

I'm sure it actually was just an honest mistake. If you being calling it Kiev all your life, it easy enough to do.

I take that back. Assuming it was an honest mistake was giving him benefit of the doubt.
Seems he does not deserve such benefit of doubt now...

 

[Malifice]

Right so Russia are after 8 months and a 'partial' mobilisation still not really trying at the moment... because?

No, they're holding back from full scale unrestricted warfare. Using those bad boys against urban areas, would cause tens if not hundreds of thousands of civilian casualties.

Just like the Yanks did in Iraq. They could have pounded every place they went with Tomahawks and MLRS systems. Instead they targeted military instillations and critical infrastructure.

Even Putin cant go all in here.

I bet my money that the rules will change WRT the annexed territories (which Putin has been clear he now considers part of Russia). Any advance on those territories, will likely be framed as 'an attack on Russia' and will be met with a massive escalation (including the eventual use of massed rocket artillery).

 

[Malifice]

Probably have held back because with their rubbish logistics and the fact they’re plans are leaking like a sieve those artillery would end up amazingly easy pickings for Ukrainian HIMARS

16 HIMARS vs 1,750 Russian BM-21's.

If the Ukrainians resorted to massed rocket artillery on Russia, they wouldnt like what they got in return.

 

[Frank Grimes]

I highly doubt that. If they wanted to take Kiev, they would have shelled the living s**t out of it.

They've actually been holding back (relatively speaking).

Russia have 1,750 BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launchers:

A battalion of 18 of these trucks, is able to launch 720 (20 kilo HE) rockets in a single volley, up to 30kms away.

Even assuming 1/3 of their Rocket artillery arsenal is operative (500 or so), that's an insane amount of firepower they can bring to bear.

Russian doctrine is basically to shell the living s**t out a target with these things. Literally pound it into dust. Then roll in Motor Rifle Brigades (Armor and AFV's).

They've held back so far, and havent gone down this path.

They would need to get those things within 30km of Kiev in the first place.

I wouldn't say they held back, but more tried and failed.

Russia had a large column of military equipment heading the Kiev in the early days of the war and never reached it's destination due to poor logistics. I'm not sure if Grad multiple missile launchers was among them, but they would have met the same fate.

They also failed in taking control the airport in Kiev where they could fly military equipment to. Though even the airport run way was severely damaged in the fighting the Russians couldn't use it in the end anyway.

 

[Nuggs Bunny]

I highly doubt that. If they wanted to take Kiev, they would have shelled the living s**t out of it.

They've actually been holding back (relatively speaking).

Russia have 1,750 BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launchers:

A battalion of 18 of these trucks, is able to launch 720 (20 kilo HE) rockets in a single volley, up to 30kms away.

Even assuming 1/3 of their Rocket artillery arsenal is operative (500 or so), that's an insane amount of firepower they can bring to bear.

Russian doctrine is basically to shell the living s**t out a target with these things. Literally pound it into dust. Then roll in Motor Rifle Brigades (Armor and AFV's).

They've held back so far, and havent gone down this path.

Yeah they have. They're launching shells at a sustained rate that puts them in the ballpark with their aggregate efforts in both world wars, over a much smaller front. Presumably the only reason they aren't launching more is because they can't bring enough of them to the front lines without Ukrainian drones or rockets blowing them to ****.

Have you seen the footage from towns around the front lines in the Donestk region? There's barely anything left standing, they're shelling the shit out of anything they reach. That's the only way they started to gain ground in the east after the first phase approach faltered in April.

There is no evidence at all to say that Russia is deliberately holding back force, short of using nuclear missiles Presumably the only reason that some can arrive at that conclusion is because they think Russia should be winning due to some on-paper numbers, and they're not.

 

[Malifice]

They would need to get those things within 30km of Kiev in the first place.

I wouldn't say they held back, but more tried and failed.

They havent really used them elsewhere either.

You'd assume they're basically digging those suckers in all around the Annexed territories in the East, and dumping a shitload of Conscripts in front of them.

Russia had a large column of military equipment heading the Kiev in the early days of the war and never reached it's destination due to poor logistics. I'm not sure if Grad multiple missile launchers was among them, but they would have met the same fate.

They also failed in taking control the airport in Kiev where they could fly military equipment to. Though even the airport run way was severely damaged in the fighting the Russians couldn't use it in the end anyway.

And the above forced Ukraine to deploy forces to counter (and prepare for) an invasion of its capital (a high value target, they simply could not ignore).

Meanwhile Russia occupied and annexed the Eastern bits it actually wanted.

 

[Malifice]

Yeah they have. They're launching shells at a sustained rate that puts them in the ballpark with their aggregate efforts in both world wars, over a much smaller front.

That's not the same as massed rocket artillery. Deploying a few here or there with other combined arms battlegroups is not the same thing as their doctrinal mandate of massing a ton of them in a large group and levelling an entire city.

 

[Nuggs Bunny]

That's not the same as massed rocket artillery. Deploying a few here or there with other combined arms battlegroups is not the same thing as their doctrinal mandate of massing a ton of them in a large group and levelling an entire city.

There are Grads being used everywhere in the war at the moment, you can type in BM-21 Ukraine 2022 into Youtube, TikTok, LiveLeak or whatever website you use to get your raw footage for them and see for yourself. Whoever these people are estimate Russia is using 32,000 per day and has 800 grads deployed, makes sense - Ukrainian Strikes Cause Moscow to Re-Think Munitions Supply and Logistics (Part Two) - Jamestown

 

[Harro59]

Mate they are in full retreat how in the world is pushing on to fully take Kyiv on the table?

And if Kyiv was actually on the table again why wouldn't they have done that at the start when they had their 'diversion' in the north at the start of the war. I mean another way to have gotten their supposed aim of control of the Black Sea would have been to actually take Kyiv topple the government and put their own in

You're not making a lot of sense in here

Sorry but in here but although you are correct and as I'm sitting here in Adelaide I have more chance of getting to Kyiv than the Russians at the moment, as per Zelenskyys address that was posted earlier in here the Russians are making small gains in the North in a couple of areas. I mean we are talking 10s of metres but still it's not a full on retreat overall.

I mean Kherson certainly seems that way, but I'm not sure we can put it all in that basket.

Also my thoughts on the initial Kyiv push was that it was always the goal early based on under-estimating the size of Zelenskyys balls. It was thought well in my opinion that if the Russians went early and hard to Kyiv, then Zelenskyys would flea and the place would just fall apart. They even tried propaganding it saying he left and all of that. They obviously thought they would just need to get close enough to scare him and they'd walk all over the country.

 

[LittleG]

The Russian military may have written down that they have 500 rocket launchers….

But

Did they actually build them or did the money get syphoned off due to corruption?


From my experience of Russia and Russians, I would suggest the later is more likely and maybe there were only 50 at the start of the war.

 

[Profop]

No, they're holding back from full scale unrestricted warfare. Using those bad boys against urban areas, would cause tens if not hundreds of thousands of civilian casualties.

Just like the Yanks did in Iraq. They could have pounded every place they went with Tomahawks and MLRS systems. Instead they targeted military instillations and critical infrastructure.

Even Putin cant go all in here.

I bet my money that the rules will change WRT the annexed territories (which Putin has been clear he now considers part of Russia). Any advance on those territories, will likely be framed as 'an attack on Russia' and will be met with a massive escalation (including the eventual use of massed rocket artillery).

Kherson was part of the territory that they annexed and their response to the advance there was to hightail it out of there as fast as possible

 

[Nuggs Bunny]

No, they're holding back from full scale unrestricted warfare. Using those bad boys against urban areas, would cause tens if not hundreds of thousands of civilian casualties.

Just like the Yanks did in Iraq. They could have pounded every place they went with Tomahawks and MLRS systems. Instead they targeted military instillations and critical infrastructure.

There's a key difference here: the US took Iraq in three weeks.

The Russians adopted a similar approach to the American invasion in February to seize the key administrative areas quickly (interdiction with cruise missiles, airborne landings, armored thrusts etc. al) and, well, it's November now.

 

[Mateyman]

No, they're holding back from full scale unrestricted warfare. Using those bad boys against urban areas, would cause tens if not hundreds of thousands of civilian casualties.

Just like the Yanks did in Iraq. They could have pounded every place they went with Tomahawks and MLRS systems. Instead they targeted military instillations and critical infrastructure.

Even Putin cant go all in here.

I bet my money that the rules will change WRT the annexed territories (which Putin has been clear he now considers part of Russia). Any advance on those territories, will likely be framed as 'an attack on Russia' and will be met with a massive escalation (including the eventual use of massed rocket artillery).

The Americans didn't spend 6 months in Iraq without making any progress.

 

[ibd77]

 

[76woodenspooners]

The Russians have a long history of literally throwing their own troops into machine gun fire as diversions. If you think they're not still doing it, you'd be mistaken.

They do have that history, but that was before the average Russian / Soviet considered their nation to be a global superpower. There is a lot more pride these days, life has higher value. And that stuff was only ever in defence of the motherland.

 

[Mobbs]

This seems to be very recent, but no solid confirmation yet of what exactly, if anything, has happened. Trukha Ukraina is a repost channel, not an investigative one, and I cannot see any other references yet at all.

In a Polish village near the Ukrainian border, two rockets fell and hit grain dryers. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki urgently convened the Committee of the Council of Ministers on National Security and Defense.


Previously, rockets fell near Lublin. Two people died. We are waiting for the reaction of NATO.


The Polish Rescue Service confirmed that the rockets fell in the village of Przewodov. Given that Poland is a member of NATO, the reaction may be unpredictable. Rusnya got rockets


Senior US intelligence official says Russian missiles crossed NATO member Poland, killing 2. We are waiting for an official statement from Poland.


Polish Government Spokesman Piotr Müller: "In connection with the emergency situation, Prime Minister Moravetskyi, in agreement with President Duda, ordered to convene a meeting of the Committee on National Security and Defense Issues. The information that will be presented at the committee will later, if possible, be made public as much as possible. I urge you not to publish unverified information until now."]/i]

 

[Mobbs]

From Baza (first mention that the source of the rockets is not known - it also does not claim that these are russian rockets):
Two rockets fell on the territory of Poland near the Ukrainian border. This is reported by the Polish media. According to them, rockets fell on grain dryers in the village of Przewodov near the city of Lublin. Where they flew from is unknown. According to media reports, at least two people died as a result of the fall of the rockets. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has convened an urgent meeting of the Government's Security and Defense Committee, according to his press service.

 

[Mobbs]

Also from Baza:
Russian rockets fell on Polish territory, killing two people. This is reported by the Associated Press, citing a senior US intelligence official. Earlier, the Polish military expert Yaroslav Volsky published a photo from the place of arrival of missiles on the territory of Poland. He wrote that it could be a Russian cruise missile or a Ukrainian air defense missile.

 

[Mobbs]

First post I've found from an investigate news source (Novaya Gazetta): Russian missiles fell in Poland, media reported. National Security Committee convened in the country.

Firefighters comment: Firefighters, radio Zet reports, confirmed that explosions occurred in the village of Przewodov, Lublin Voivodeship, Poland. The exact reasons are unknown, said senior captain Marcin Lebedovich. He also said that two people died at the scene.

Quoting Latvian response: “My condolences to our Polish brothers in arms. The criminal Russian regime fired missiles that not only targeted the civilian population of Ukraine, but also fell on NATO territory in Poland. Latvia fully supports our Polish friends and condemns this crime,” Latvian Defense Minister Artis Pabriks tweeted.

Chin-rubbing re whose rockets they were: The Associated Press, citing an American intelligence official, writes that the missiles that fell in Poland could be Russian. At the same time, the Pentagon said it could not confirm reports that two Russian missiles fell on Polish territory.

Links: [1] [2] [3] [4]

 

[darth_timon]

It's most likely an accident, because Russia knows they cannot face off against NATO. Nonetheless, it's a serious escalation in tensions, Ukraine will seize upon it to pressure NATO into some sort of action, and NATO could use this to pressure Russia over missile strikes. 'Can't guarantee the safety of neutrals? Well, we'll enforce it then, by force if we have to.'

 

[Mobbs]

(from Ukraine in Shock TG repost channel)
And here is the reaction of Estonia. “Estonia is ready to defend every centimeter of NATO territory. We are in full solidarity with our close ally Poland,” the Estonian Foreign Ministry.

 

[Mobbs]

It's most likely an accident, because Russia knows they cannot face off against NATO. Nonetheless, it's a serious escalation in tensions, Ukraine will seize upon it to pressure NATO into some sort of action, and NATO could use this to pressure Russia over missile strikes. 'Can't guarantee the safety of neutrals? Well, we'll enforce it then, by force if we have to.'

Yes of course nobody's deliberately fired at a Polish farm near the border out Lublin way. Yet (if true), it's happened - and it's always been pretty clear that "if any of that spills over into here we're gonna take issue with that."