Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 3

[pjcrows]

Closer or further from nuclear war now?

 

[Mop]

Wagner to Russia right now

 

[fishardansin]

So, repeating myself again but take all this with a grain of salt; anyone reporting to have 100% accurate information on any of this is lying to you.

But, reliable reports seem to suggest that Ukraine has been probing the frontline defenses of Russian forces for the past couple of weeks, including some unexpected gains of various villages/towns. But there's a key counter-offensive planned in the coming week or two and I believe Ukraine will not change those plans or rush them based on today's machinations in the (tiny but real) possibility this is all a ploy.

Also, waiting a few days would make what Prigozhin is doing more impactful on the Ukrainian front. Russians need the news to sink in and start to have doubts on the leadership of their country.

I think it would be impactful to make a feint that a big attack each night for a few days, and not in the same spot.

As it stands now, Ukraine is shaping and proofing. They need more of Russia's reserves at the front so a breakthrough goes deeper. They also need a better picture of the layout of mines to know where they can make lanes for penetration deep enough to encircle the zero and first line. This leaves the 2nd line very brittle for the next phase. Following that there are also serious defensive positions around each major settlement.

If Prigozhin continues on, then Russian reserves could be called back to attack Wagner from behind. Reports are indicating that Wager has 25k+ troops with them. I'm guessing they've used the last month to stockpile weapons and fuel so they don't break down on their way to Moscow as the Russians did on their way to Kyiv.

One final point about this coup and how it affects Ukraine.
If this moves fast and Prigozhin is successful on the back of the Russian military surrendering to Wagner, then it is relatively bloodless and there is a high chance he continues the war. He is a serial liar and will go back on his statements that called the war unjustified. If Putin wipes him out quickly, he will continue with the war. I can't see it dragging out as a long and protracted fight. The military either back Putin or Prigozhin and that leads to a quick victory for one of them. To lead to irreversible damage to the Russian war effort this civil war needs to drag on for at least a few weeks or months and be brutal so that it draws many Russians into it.

It is possible that Prigozhin, who has shown that he is willing to commit to this fight despite his questioning of its justification, has reasoned that Russia can't win and through no morally driven motivation, just analysis, has decided he'll take over and end it. It would be easier to negotiate a quick end to the war with quicker reintegration of Russia into the global economy if there was a change of leadership.

It is impossible to see how this ends. It is impossible to see if it has a long-lasting impact on the war.

 

[FireKrakouer]

I do wonder what's at play here. We all know money talks and bullshit walks.

I imagine just about every intel agency on earth is trying to twist this conflict one way or another. How much impact they have actually had, who knows.

 

[D Mitchell]

Whilst it's demonstrably worse than it used to be (seriously), Twitter is best for staying up to date on this stuff.

But man, old Twitter was literally designed to excel at following breaking news events like this and now Elon has ruined it by removing verification from actual journalists and giving anyone who buys a blue tick a boost to their reach.

Twitter ? You must be younger than 70

 

[Mop]

So at this point, what's old mate Prigo's end game? Legitimization? He'll overthrow Putin and put a puppet leader in with an agenda that suits him?

 

[fishardansin]

Closer or further from nuclear war now?

No change. This war is not going to lead to a nuclear conflict. Even if Ukraine is successful enough to reclaim all of the Donbas and Crimea, they will not be stepping foot in Russia. Therefore, there is no reason for Russia to drop the bomb and lead to their own annihilation considering no on is planning to annihilate them.

Both China and the US have made if very clear to Russia that things will not end well for them if they use weapons like that. So the saying still rings true that "the have children too".

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

All those calling for the Ukrainian Offensive to start today….

How many Ukrainian dads, mums and kids need to die fighting Russians today?

Better let them sort this out themselves….

Use missiles, artillery or whatever to disrupt troop movement BUT keeps as many citizens as you can alive.

Totally disagree, doing nothing today would make the war longer and more dead Ukranians.

 

[D Mitchell]

So at this point, what's old mate Prigo's end game? Legitimization? He'll overthrow Putin and put a puppet leader in with an agenda that suits him?

He either has an end game in mind or is the ultimate idiot. If his army can get beyond Rostov, unopposed, you have to veer towards the former, Putin's not the sort of bloke you'd want to cross.

 

[Roos9699]

 

[fishardansin]

So at this point, what's old mate Prigo's end game? Legitimization? He'll overthrow Putin and put a puppet leader in with an agenda that suits him?

I can only think of two possible objectives for him, either:

1. Overthrow of Putin and we have President Prigozhin leading a huge powerful nation.
2. Many units of the military don't resist Wagner and the current military leaders are caught and done away with. Putin switches sides to Prigozhin and makes him undisputed deputy.

I think the second more fanciful scenario is Prigozhin's dream. That would mean Putin's popularity passes on to him and he's seen as a saviour of Russia. They have scapegoats to blame and Russia reintegrates with the world economy, despite having to pay reparations to Ukraine, life will still be better for the upper middle class.

 

[Chadwiko]

If this moves fast and Prigozhin is successful on the back of the Russian military surrendering to Wagner, then it is relatively bloodless and there is a high chance he continues the war. He is a serial liar and will go back on his statements that called the war unjustified.

Yup, this is one key point I want to make sure everyone understands; Prigozhin is not a good guy and is no friend of Ukraine.

I have no idea how the current situation will resolve, but I would be reticent to say it's a big step towards the war in Ukraine ending.

 

[Mop]

My follow up would be where would a Prigozhin influenced Russia leave Ukraine?

 

[Mop]

Yup, this is one key point I want to make sure everyone understands; Prigozhin is not a good guy and is no friend of Ukraine.

I have no idea how the current situation will resolve, but I would be reticent to say it's a big step towards the war in Ukraine ending.

This was my belief.

OR he genuinely thinks Ukraine can overpower the conventional Russian military

 

[D Mitchell]

No change. This war is not going to lead to a nuclear conflict. Even if Ukraine is successful enough to reclaim all of the Donbas and Crimea, they will not be stepping foot in Russia. Therefore, there is no reason for Russia to drop the bomb and lead to their own annihilation considering no on is planning to annihilate them.

Both China and the US have made if very clear to Russia that things will not end well for them if they use weapons like that. So the saying still rings true that "the have children too".

Bolded bit. Where's that from ? I hope you are right, though. Xi and CCP are the least trustworthy imaginable.

 

[Chadwiko]

This was my belief.

OR he genuinely thinks Ukraine can overpower the conventional Russian military

The 'best' case scenario is that he basically surmises that the entire conflict is a pointless waste of Russian lives.

 

[Professor Knowall]

… Both China and the US have made if very clear to Russia that things will not end well for them if they use weapons like that. So the saying still rings true that "the have children too".

But do the Russians love their children too?

 

[Mobbs]

There has been a bit of discussion about this in a number of forums and most don't think it's theatre, but they are also not sure. I think it would be too risky, however Putin has taken enormous risks in all of Ukrainian adventures.


Mobbs, what's your feeling about the likelihood of Prigozhin rolling Putin?

No idea and tbh don't really care. Just want the genocide to stop!

 

[Roos9699]

Prigozhin might be able to get support from conscripts wanting to get home.

 

[Crankyhawk]

Not going to name anyone so as to not break site rules, but the guy who I assume is thread banned here is just spouting the most hilariously transparent Russian propaganda in the NMFC board thread on this conflict.

It's astoundingly pathetic.

If it’s the same poster he left by choice not banned (and from what I recall on other matters was a reasonable poster too)

 

[fishardansin]

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[Roos9699]

If it’s the same poster he left by choice not banned (and from what I recall on other matters was a reasonable poster too)

Pretty sure it is and is claimng Russia are winning the war.

 

[jatz14]

We might begin to see an exodus of Russia's military in Ukraine, to fight for Wagner. I've seen reports Wagner's tanks were simply waved through at the border.

Most of the troops in Russia are glorified policeman are extremely poorly trained and equipped national guard types. I don't see them getting in the way if Wagner rolls through with tanks and APCs.

They haven't been able to kick the about 100 Russian freedom fighters out, they sure as hell aren't kicking Wagner out.

Putin has a BIG problem. Even if Wagner just want to force Putin to get rid of Shoigu, Putin will not want it to be see that armed mercenaries can force Putin to do something. The veneer doesnt just lose its luster at that point.

Militarily, the best thing for Russias war on Ukraine would be to reach an accommodation with Wagner and keep the army in Ukraine, but I am not sure Putin can do that. He may feel he needs to come down on Wagner hard, but I doubt he can do that without pulling significant forces from Ukraine.

I did think that at that point, Ukraine should attack and try to splinter the whole Russian invasion, but I have heard the argument, why send troops, some of whom will die, if there is a chance fighting in Russia effectively ends the Ukraine war.

I suspect Ukraine may just wait and see, if it all falls apart, it may effectively end the war without Ukraine doing anything, but the moment it looks like that isn't a likely outcome, attack and try to exploit the chaos.

 

[Profop]

Surely Ukraine asks for neighbours aid to ensure the Russian civil war doesn’t spread into its territory

 

[NSWCROW]

strong " Omnidroid becomes self-aware and turns on Syndrome " vibes