Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 3

[LewisHall]

What specific sounds? I have neither high nor low morale sounds in my feeds from Ukrainian defence in Avdiivka.

Video of the UA around there saying:

- they are not impressed HQ split some time ago.
- they are dying in droves and not sure why.
- lack of weaponry / ammo

Etc.

You have not seen these? I'm surprised as you are usually on the ball on these matters

 

[Mobbs]

Video of the UA around there saying:

- they are not impressed HQ split some time ago.
- they are dying in droves and not sure why.
- lack of weaponry / ammo

Etc.

You have not seen these? I'm surprised as you are usually on the ball on these matters

No, I don't always have spare time to be reading up everything tho I do when I have some free time. I've seen other reports detailing the difficulties with ammo on a larger scale, but nothing about the first 2 points and nothing local to Avdiivka about the 3rd.

The western allies of Ukraine have severely let down Ukraine with the 30% scandal (supplying only 30% of the munitions promised), it's widely reported ([youtuber Georgij goes on a rant about it in the 2nd half of this YT video]).

On the other two topics I'd be interested in any media. The middle one sounds like passion prose. Ukraine are determined to keep counter-attacking even during winter and they've made it abundantly clear why (keywords "cold" and "hungry" are part of their open propaganda campaign right now) . ([Here's one link to this (Polish news site Charter97)]). Still I'm sure there are many people wondering how they ended up where they now are.

 

[wannabejack]

Video of the UA around there saying:

- they are not impressed HQ split some time ago.
- they are dying in droves and not sure why.
- lack of weaponry / ammo

Etc.

You have not seen these? I'm surprised as you are usually on the ball on these matters

You seem to be on the ball. Maybe you could post some of these videos you're talking about.
As Mobbs has mentioned Ukraine have been let down by the west.

 

[Visions]

You don't think it's more likely Ukraine breaks first?

How many causalties are they prepared to take

Ukraine will be prepared to take casualties as long as it takes to push Russia out. If they wont, then they dont exist, quite simple as that.

Only an idiot thinks that any potential pause or so called ceasefire would be a permanent solution. That would just give the Russians time to replenish and hit harder again down the track.

There is a difference between fighting for your home and fighting for someone ego in a different country.

Going back to the Afghan example, the locals lost 5 times as many personnel than the Russians, yet it didn’t stop them, and the Russian military spending did less damage to their economy back then too. Yet the Russians decided enough was enough. In Ukraine its the flipside where they are losing much more than the locals, and military spending is sky high.

The local Russian population is growing tired of the war too. A recent poll showed that a majority would be happy to see the war over, as long as they kept the 4 annexed oblasts (different from the Kremlins aim of complete occupancy). More body bags arriving home, and the natives will get even more restless.

 

[Mobbs]

I did have one lighthearted moment when doing a little basic googling searching today, checking for sources on the Jamala story:

When did Elon Musk buy Google?

 

[Cap]

Video of the UA around there saying:

- they are not impressed HQ split some time ago.
- they are dying in droves and not sure why.
- lack of weaponry / ammo

Etc.

You have not seen these? I'm surprised as you are usually on the ball on these matters

I've seen 1 which the authenticity has been questioned.

I guess you can share what ever Russian Telegram chanels you follow so we can see more ?

 

[Jello_B]

If Ukraine (begrudgingly) and Russia agree to some annexation of the eastern region would this satisfy Putin. Putin won’t live for ever and hopefully the next Russian leader is more moderate.
Ukraine can then join NATO and the EU.
The eastern parts of Ukraine have been fought over many years, is there a negotiable position?
If not it seems like this war will never end, Russia ain’t going to stop it appears.
The west have too many other complexities they need to deal with (I think we dropped the ball on letting Russia and China become as cosy as they are now).

 

[Mobbs]

Some of the latest on Avdiivka include RF lines of attack on "Yasynuvatsky Lane". While I dunno where this is, specifically, I see there is a town just outside within RF occupation called the same name, so it's probably a vector of assault along a road connecting the two.

So my Map points out Avdiivka, Yasnynuvata (village/town) and my guess at what is meant. I also underline Stepove which has been the subject of a long period attempted pushes by the RF over recent while.

 

[Millky95]

If Ukraine (begrudgingly) and Russia agree to some annexation of the eastern region would this satisfy Putin. Putin won’t live for ever and hopefully the next Russian leader is more moderate.
Ukraine can then join NATO and the EU.
The eastern parts of Ukraine have been fought over many years, is there a negotiable position?
If not it seems like this war will never end, Russia ain’t going to stop it appears.
The west have too many other complexities they need to deal with (I think we dropped the ball on letting Russia and China become as cosy as they are now).

I can't see that happening.

Ukraine gave up their nukes to never be invaded: that didn't work
Ukraine lost Crimea and other lands to not be invaded: that didn't work.

Appeasement never works with these countries. I fully recommend watching the John McCain video about Putin

 

[LewisHall]

I can't see that happening.

Ukraine gave up their nukes to never be invaded: that didn't work
Ukraine lost Crimea and other lands to not be invaded: that didn't work.

Appeasement never works with these countries. I fully recommend watching the John McCain video about Putin

They weren't their ukes as Moscow had the codes

 

[Mobbs]

If Ukraine (begrudgingly) and Russia agree to some annexation of the eastern region would this satisfy Putin. Putin won’t live for ever and hopefully the next Russian leader is more moderate.
Ukraine can then join NATO and the EU.
The eastern parts of Ukraine have been fought over many years, is there a negotiable position?
If not it seems like this war will never end, Russia ain’t going to stop it appears.
The west have too many other complexities they need to deal with (I think we dropped the ball on letting Russia and China become as cosy as they are now).

We'd have to rely on both an early Putin exit, AND a successor less despotic AND strong enough to oppose Silovici pushback. Only then reparations and return of occupied territories follow.

I can't see Ukraine wanting to roll those dice. Surrender means to die. Concession means surrender. Ceasefire means abkhazia adjara ossetia Georgia etc etc etc

On SM-A146P using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[wannabejack]

Russia's security service, the FSB, will decide who will be the next tsar of Russia.
"US intelligence historian Calder Walton has described Russia as "effectively a security service with a state attached" where around 77 per cent of Putin's administration has a background in either the intelligence agencies or the military."

People once laughed at Vladimir Putin, then buildings in Moscow started getting bombed

It was 1999, and Vladimir Putin was the last man standing of three candidates put forward to be the country's next president. People laughed at him, but when buildings in Moscow started getting blown up, everything changed.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Zidane98]

Vatniks getting bogged down around Avdiika

 

[Zidane98]

Some of the latest on Avdiivka include RF lines of attack on "Yasynuvatsky Lane". While I dunno where this is, specifically, I see there is a town just outside within RF occupation called the same name, so it's probably a vector of assault along a road connecting the two.

So my Map points out Avdiivka, Yasnynuvata (village/town) and my guess at what is meant. I also underline Stepove which has been the subject of a long period attempted pushes by the RF over recent while.

View attachment 1857509

I see multiple towns / villages etc with the same name are quite common in former USSR nations. Any reason for that culturally?


I remember seeing pisstakes about the Russians getting confused at which Donetsk they were suppose to occupy (there is a Donetsk in Russia just over the border from Ukraine).

 

[LewisHall]

Vatniks getting bogged down around Avdiika

Isn't that a Ukraine humvee

 

[Zidane98]

They weren't their ukes as Moscow had the codes

No they did not. They were Ukranian nukes inherited from the USSR. Ukraine did not want the burden of maintaining them and having a military division responsible for them but could have been operated if they wanted to be a nuclear power. Ukraine specifically gave them up (encouraged by the US & UK ironically) in exchange for Russia agreeing to guarantee their sovereignty in perpetuity.

Ukraine would not have given up their nuclear arsenal if they were aware Russia would attack & invade them on such a large scale.

 

[Frank Grimes]

Isn't that a Ukraine humvee

Might be, but I think the weather in Adiivka for Ukraine will be the same as the weather in Adiivka for Russia.

 

[LewisHall]

Might be, but I think the weather in Adiivka for Ukraine will be the same as the weather in Adiivka for Russia.

Russia gear is made better

I might have been taking 'Vatniks getting bogged down around Avdiika' too literally

 

[LewisHall]

No they did not. They were Ukranian nukes inherited from the USSR. Ukraine did not want the burden of maintaining them and having a military division responsible for them but could have been operated if they wanted to be a nuclear power. Ukraine specifically gave them up (encouraged by the US & UK ironically) in exchange for Russia agreeing to guarantee their sovereignty in perpetuity.

Ukraine would not have given up their nuclear arsenal if they were aware Russia would attack & invade them on such a large scale.

The security measures against unauthorized use were under Moscow control apparently.

If you have a nice car but no car keys is it really your car? You may be able to get it to turn on but it's not best case.

Also , Ukraine did not have the technical infrastructure to maintain a nuclear arsenal

 

[Mofra]

All of them. Cause if they don't Russia will destroy Ukraine. They are defending their land. Ukraine has the moral and motivation to hold.

If they don't hold off the Russian forces, Ukraine will become a guerrilla-action quagmire that Russia will never be able to control.
It will be Afghanistan on steroids.

 

[LewisHall]

If they don't hold off the Russian forces, Ukraine will become a guerrilla-action quagmire that Russia will never be able to control.
It will be Afghanistan on steroids.

That doesn't seem to have happened yet? To a major extent. In the very large areas of Ukraine that's currently held by rus

 

[Mofra]

That doesn't seem to have happened yet? To a major extent. In the very large areas of Ukraine that's currently held by rus

In a way, yes. There is some interdiction activity in Russian controlled areas and even some low level activity on Russian soil, although we don't know if they are Ukrainian operatives or anti-Putin Russians.

 

[wannabejack]

That doesn't seem to have happened yet? To a major extent. In the very large areas of Ukraine that's currently held by rus

David Kirichenko: Ukraine’s Crimean partisans are waging war in the shadows

In the occupied Crimean Peninsula, an unyielding spirit endures despite years of unremitting repression exerted by Russia upon Ukrainian citizens, particularly the Crimean Tatar population. Here, a determined force of Ukrainian partisans meticulously prepares for an armed uprising, waging a war...

kyivindependent.com

As the Ukrainian counteroffensive gradually progresses toward Crimea, the resistance movement within the occupied peninsula will only amplify. The involvement of Crimea's partisans in the resistance movement will play a crucial role in facilitating Ukraine's victorious liberation of the peninsula.

Atesh Archives - Euromaidan Press

euromaidanpress.com

АТЕШ

Военное движение украинцев и крымских татар. Наш резервный канал: @Atesh_reserve СМИ и сотрудничество: @atesh_press Вступить в движение: @Ametham_atesh_ua — Крым @ruslan_atesh_ua — материк 🇺🇦 @Wladimir_atesh_ua — РФ

t.me

 

[Aussie in exile]

Russia recruiting more cannon fodder

Ukraine war: Russia goes back to prisons to feed its war machine

Russia's defence ministry has taken over from Wagner in recruiting inmates to fight in Ukraine.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Baldur]

The security measures against unauthorized use were under Moscow control apparently.

If you have a nice car but no car keys is it really your car? You may be able to get it to turn on but it's not best case.

Also , Ukraine did not have the technical infrastructure to maintain a nuclear arsenal

Ukraine had and has the technicians that can rip out the PAL's and eithier rebuild the trigger without a PAL or built their own PAL. So while it would have taken some work they could have used the plutonium pits, the high explosive lenses and the lithium hydride fusion stage. Ukraine was one of the places with a lot of related tech in the USSR. So yes like a car, if you own the factory it is possable to replace the ignition if you do not have the key.