Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here:

Europe - Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/war-in-ukraine-thread-4-thread-rules-updated.1376293/page-146

www.bigfooty.com

If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or starts to derail the thread, report the post to us and we'll move it over there.

Seeing as multiple people seem to have forgotten, abuse is against the rules of BF. Continuous, page long attacks directed at a single poster in this thread will result in threadbans for a week from this point; doing so again once you have returned will make the bans permanent and will be escalated to infractions.

This thread still has misinformation rules, and occasionally you will be asked to demonstrate a claim you have made by moderation. If you cannot, you will be offered the opportunity to amend the post to reflect that it's opinion, to remove the post, or you will be threadbanned and infracted for sharing misinformation.

Addendum: from this point, use of any variant of the word 'orc' to describe combatants, politicians or russians in general will be deleted and the poster will receive a warning. If the behaviour continues, it will be escalated. Consider this fair warning.

Finally: If I see the word Nazi or Hitler being flung around, there had better have a good faith basis as to how it's applicable to the Russian invasion - as in, video/photographic evidence of POW camps designed to remove another ethnic group - or to the current Ukrainian army. If this does not occur, you will be threadbanned for posting off topic

This is a sensitive area, and I understand that this makes for fairly incensed conversation sometimes. This does not mean the rules do not apply, whether to a poster positing a Pro-Ukraine stance or a poster positing an alternative view.

Behave, people.

 

[Mobbs]

Back to the Tver oblast explosion as we have two Tier 1 Kaboms now and it's easy to lose track:
"Estonian intelligence reports that at least 750,000 shells were destroyed at the Russian warehouse in the Tver region of the Russian Federation... And how many in the Krasnodar region? It is not yet known, we are waiting for operational information. " [Voice of Crimea TG]

 

[Visions]

https://x.com/Tendar/status/1836822868992156032 3

From the post: " The first clear satellite images from the ammunition depot of Toropets have been released by Radio Svoboda. My assessment is not yet final because smoke clouds are still blocking partially the view at some areas. Nevertheless, what can be seen is already devastating.
Here are my numbers:
The newly built portion of the base:

• All 23 buildings have been destroyed
• Out of 42 storage bunker at least 15 have been destroyed, 10 more cannot be assessed but are most likely destroyed, due to their proximity to the major bomb crater
• the remaining 17 bunkers show various signs of damages but it is hard to assess the impact of it
• 5 major bombs craters can be seen (yellow)
• Damage rate approximately: over 80%

The old part of the base:

• at least 17 buildings have been destroyed
• at least 2 open air logistics fields are smoldering, probably more in the northwestern portion of the base
• area market in violet cannot be entirely assessed but especially the northern portion seems to be totally gone
• 2 major bomb crater can be seen
• Damage rate approximately: 70%-90%

Given that the damage by excessive heat and kinetic damage caused by shockwaves and shrapnel lead to material deterioration beyond usage, especially missiles and other complex weapon systems, I would call this virtually a total loss of all material on the base, where at best only 10%-20% can be salvaged.

Source of satellite pic: @KOvsianyi

View attachment 2115573
View attachment 2115575

What great efficiency considering all drones were shot down! Imagine what would happen if Russian air defence wasn't the greatest thing on earth.....

It's a huge explosion, again. Those debris warheads are lethal.

"At night, the Tikhoretsk district was subjected to a terrorist attack by the Kiev regime. Two drones were suppressed by air defense and electronic warfare forces. The falling debris of one of them caused a fire that spread to explosive objects. Detonation began. Now, for safety reasons, a temporary evacuation of residents of the village located near the fire site is underway to nearby populated areas. A temporary accommodation point has been set up in Tikhoretsk. Fire crews and special services are working at the scene. On my instructions, the head of the district, Anatoly Perepelin, is at the scene, reporting on the situation. According to preliminary information, there are no casualties among the residents of the district as a result of the emergency." - Governor of Krasnodar Krai
[ ASTRA TG]

Man, those Ruskies have the worst luck over and over again. Why can't the debris just fall outside the borders of the target?

 

[Mobbs]

Russian news source Siberian Realities share results of a survey by "Chronicles"

"Хроники": всё больше россиян поддерживает вывод войск из Украины

49% опрошенных поддержали бы вывод российских войск из Украины

www.sibreal.org

"Chronicles": More and more Russians support the withdrawal of troops from Ukraine

The research project "Chronicles" and the research group Extreme Scan conducted a survey among Russians on their attitude to the war in Ukraine. It was timed to coincide with the second anniversary of the start of mobilization in Russia.

The telephone survey, which was conducted from September 10 to 17, reportedly involved 800 respondents over the age of 18. The sample was random.

According to the researchers, 49% of respondents would support the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine and the start of peace talks without achieving the military goals set by the country's authorities. 33% of respondents were against such a decision. 63% of survey participants spoke out in favor of a peace treaty with mutual concessions being concluded between Russia and Ukraine in the coming year.

32% of respondents stated their readiness to participate in the war by order of the Ministry of Defense, 30% stated their unwillingness to take part in military operations. 29% of respondents would support a new wave of mobilization.

Researchers note that the number of people in favor of the withdrawal of Russian troops and a ceasefire without achieving the goals of the war has increased by 9% compared to data from February 2023. Then, 40% of respondents supported such an initiative.

Respondents were also asked whether it was more important to push the Ukrainian army out of the Kursk region or to seize new territories in the Donbass. 53% of respondents were in favor of pushing the Ukrainian Armed Forces out of Kursk, 15% were in favor of seizing territories in the Donetsk region.

Extreme Scan also conducted an additional telephone survey of 5,500 people over the age of 18. They were asked whether the men around them were ready to go to war in the event of mobilization. 23% said they were ready, 38% of respondents said they were not ready, and another 19% thought it was 50/50. 57% of survey participants assessed the likelihood of a new mobilization as high, while 28% thought it was low. 51% of respondents were sympathetic to those who avoided participating in the war, while 27% condemned such people.

In September 2022, the Russian authorities announced the so-called partial mobilization for the war with Ukraine. According to official data, about 300 thousand people were called up. The decree on mobilization is still in effect.

In September 2023, the Chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee Andrei Kartapolov announced that there would be no rotation of mobilized personnel, meaning that those called up for mobilization would also be required to remain in the war zone until the end of the war. This caused a storm of indignation among groups of relatives and friends of those mobilized, who regularly appeal to the authorities with requests to return the military from the front and recruit new ones in their place.

 

[Visions]

When you have a major military depot destroyed beyond recognition, you surely beef up the defence of remaining ones close by?

That is unless you are the Russians. A new depot was apparently targeted just 15km south of Toropets and hit by drones (or by its debris as the Kremlin will say).

 

[Mobbs]

When you have a major military depot destroyed beyond recognition, you surely beef up the defence of remaining ones close by?

That is unless you are the Russians. A new depot was apparently targeted just 15km south of Toropets and hit by drones (or by its debris as the Kremlin will say).

I saw reports on Russian channels of drones up and about around Toropets again. This must have been it.

The Staraya Toropa railway station was evacuated in the Tver region.

The evacuation of the station began at about three o'clock in the morning after the Toropetsky district of the region was attacked by drones.

Several passenger trains have now been cancelled. Others, including Moscow-Pskov and Saint Petersburg-Smolensk, have been sent on an alternative route and are running with a delay of about 2 hours.

Earlier, the head of the region, Igor Rudenya, reported that several Ukrainian Armed Forces drones were shot down in the southwest of the Tver region.

According to preliminary data, one of the downed drones fell in the Toropetsky district of the region.

Emergency services specialists are working on site.
[BAZA TG]

 

[modul8]

Maybe the Russians should stop shooting at the drones. The drones can't do any more damage than the fragments are

 

[Mobbs]

Maybe the Russians should stop shooting at the drones. The drones can't do any more damage than the fragments are

It's a good point. The drones are loaded with debris cluster munitions but clearly they don't self-deploy. Seem to deploy reactively to neutralisation of the parent.