Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here:

Europe - Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/war-in-ukraine-thread-4-thread-rules-updated.1376293/page-146

www.bigfooty.com

If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or starts to derail the thread, report the post to us and we'll move it over there.

Seeing as multiple people seem to have forgotten, abuse is against the rules of BF. Continuous, page long attacks directed at a single poster in this thread will result in threadbans for a week from this point; doing so again once you have returned will make the bans permanent and will be escalated to infractions.

This thread still has misinformation rules, and occasionally you will be asked to demonstrate a claim you have made by moderation. If you cannot, you will be offered the opportunity to amend the post to reflect that it's opinion, to remove the post, or you will be threadbanned and infracted for sharing misinformation.

Addendum: from this point, use of any variant of the word 'orc' to describe combatants, politicians or russians in general will be deleted and the poster will receive a warning. If the behaviour continues, it will be escalated. Consider this fair warning.

Finally: If I see the word Nazi or Hitler being flung around, there had better have a good faith basis as to how it's applicable to the Russian invasion - as in, video/photographic evidence of POW camps designed to remove another ethnic group - or to the current Ukrainian army. If this does not occur, you will be threadbanned for posting off topic

This is a sensitive area, and I understand that this makes for fairly incensed conversation sometimes. This does not mean the rules do not apply, whether to a poster positing a Pro-Ukraine stance or a poster positing an alternative view.

Behave, people.

 

[GhostofJimJess]

They (North Koreans) will be cannon fodder.

Probably still preferable to their existence back in NK

 

[Visions]

Who's the bloke who determines if a NK soldier is dead or AWOL? Going to be difficult to verify deaths.

Maybe the NK army just inters all families of NK soldiers fighting in Ukraine in concentration camps regardless.

True. Russia doesn’t even bring their own troops home, they leave the corpses rotting on the battlefield, they aren’t going to bring the NK troops back off the frontlines.

 

[Mobbs]

Maybe the NK army just inters all families of NK soldiers fighting in Ukraine in concentration camps regardless.

Bullshit! It's 2024, none of that shit happens anymore. We are a humane species!

North Korea Isolates Families of Soldiers Deployed to Russia, Reports South Korean Intelligence

Reports indicate North Korean authorities are relocating soldiers' families to manage them closely during troop deployments to support Russia's actions in Ukraine.

united24media.com

Oh.

 

[Mobbs]

Another older story about the frightening future for soldiers' families :/

Concern for families of North Korean defectors

Details emerge of children forced to do hard labour after their parents’ escape, confirming widespread fears for the fate of relatives left behind

www.theguardian.com

 

[Mobbs]

Another discussion about NK troops at the combat zone.

 

[tricknologist]

It is quite incredible the knots vatniks tie themselves in defending Putin & his fascist invasion. Usually mentioning the US about 443 times in every post.

Vatniks don't have any rhetorical tricks aside from whataboutism and blaming the US for everything. They're the biggest American exceptionalists going around because they can't comprehend anyone but the US having any geopolitical agency.

 

[wannabejack]

Diplomacy and concessions as far as this war goes. It's all over bar the shouting, just wrap it up

NK troops don't change anything is my argument

So if 3,000 - 10,000 NK troops "don't change anything" you could argue that 3,000 - 10,000 NATO troops in Ukraine "don't change anything" either.

 

[RonSon]

Diplomacy and concessions as far as this war goes. It's all over bar the shouting, just wrap it up

NK troops don't change anything is my argument

Hahahahaha. Just wrap it up. Sure.

Maybe Putin should concede they couldn't take Kyiv in three days and walk away before he bankrupts russia completely.

 

[Jamolad]

Well yeh, that's a declaration of war though yes?...

What??

No!!!

That's a Special Military Operation.

 

[wannabejack]

...

And what weapons could they supply that could create a chance for Ukraine to win a war against their much bigger and better armed neighbour. You're suggesting NATO go in full tilt, that's nuclear war in a week

NATO should equip Ukraine with more modern equipment rather than their cast off used equipment. All the NATO countries are going through a modernisation of their military ready to defend themselves against russian attack. Poland has increased its military spending to 3 percent of GDP.
russia is no longer a “much bigger and better armed neighbour” as they once may have been. They’re now relying on Iran and North Korea for weapons and now soldiers on the ground.

NATO can “go in full tilt” (or not quite full tilt) but restrict itself to Ukraine’s borders. (russia has North Korean troops in russia). Ukraine can continue their attacks inside russia.

 

[wannabejack]

...



....

 

[Visions]

Bullshit! It's 2024, none of that shit happens anymore. We are a humane species!

North Korea Isolates Families of Soldiers Deployed to Russia, Reports South Korean Intelligence

Reports indicate North Korean authorities are relocating soldiers' families to manage them closely during troop deployments to support Russia's actions in Ukraine.

united24media.com

Oh.

Because life for them starving to death under the portly leaders regime is the alternative?

Also the notion that they would need training because they weren’t up to speed with modern warfare and there would be many casualties otherwise.

Yes that one week training will make all the difference to them. Lol

 

[Andre]

They will be cannon fodder.

Putin and Kim don't care. Putin gets cannon fodder, kicking the can down the road, of needing to mobilise in Moscow and St. Petersburg and Kim gets money (I think it was around $2-3k per soldier). When NK starves it's citizens, because so many are in the army instead of the economy, any losses are irrelevant. 3, 10 or 50 thousand dead soldiers, when they have millions of (poorly trained and malnourished) soldiers means even less to Kim, then dead minorities and prisoners means to Putin. Shit, it wouldn't surprise me if Kim sees the deaths as a positive, with less mouths to feed.

 

[Aussie in exile]

Putin and Kim don't care. Putin gets cannon fodder, kicking the can down the road, of needing to mobilise in Moscow and St. Petersburg and Kim gets money (I think it was around $2-3k per soldier). When NK starves it's citizens, because so many are in the army instead of the economy, any losses are irrelevant. 3, 10 or 50 thousand dead soldiers, when they have millions of (poorly trained and malnourished) soldiers means even less to Kim, then dead minorities and prisoners means to Putin. Shit, it wouldn't surprise me if Kim sees the deaths as a positive, with less mouths to feed.

Your not wrong.
It's about little man syndrome and in this case both are short in height.

 

[Mobbs]

In Georgia aka Sakartvelo, it's looking as though pro-genocide Georgian Dream has a party-for-party winning lead in the voting, with the foremost opposition party UNM running second. However all the following opposition parties have a potential coalition positiong they are poised to take which would actually give them the votes needed to win. It's a bit fuzzy as usual, but the party to form a government is still yet to be identified.

As in Moldova, some allegations of vote-buying / fraud also exist in Georgia, but as the incumbent party is already the pro-terrorism one, information is less forthcoming and reprisals for speaking out are more proximal. Reports of dodginess are not as prevalent as those in Georgia.

Georgia’s ruling party leading in pivotal election ahead of pro-EU opposition

Early results show Georgian Dream party taking 53% in poll that could be make or break for country’s future the EU

www.theguardian.com

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/26/europe/georgia-election-uncertain-russia-intl-latam

Let's remember how the Georgian Dream party ran a visual campaign juxtaposing destroyed Ukrainian cities against healthy Georgian cities, arguing its important to avoid a European leaning or you'll get bombed and slaughtered by Moskovy. That's literally one expression of their platform - go with the Russian sympathisers or Russia will kill you all.

Not only does Russia watch the election results closely, but so does the EU - as the EU will likely burn the paperwork if Georgia chooses GD as their ruling party.

 

[wannabejack]

Dragging South Korea into the war?

"North Korea, which has reportedly dispatched ground troops to join Russia's war against Ukraine, has also sent fighter pilots who could fly Russian warplanes, a report said on Monday.

A government official in South Korea claimed that North Korea last month dispatched fighter pilots to Vladivostok, a city in the Russian Far East, ahead of the first deployment of its ground troops on October 8, South Korean media TV Chosun reported.

This could relate to training on Russian combat aircraft supplied to North Korea, the report said. But it could not rule out that Russia, which has suffered from a shortage of pilots during the Russia-Ukraine War, had requested assistance from the North.

Russia would be the first overseas deployment for the North's combat pilots since the Vietnam War. They also operated in Syria and Egypt during the 1973 Yom Kippur War."

Another article

North Korean combat aviation pilots are stationed in Russia

In September, North Korean combat pilots reportedly traveled to Vladivostok in Russia’s Far East, according to South Korean government sources.

bulgarianmilitary.com

 

[Frank Grimes]

Putin and Kim don't care. Putin gets cannon fodder, kicking the can down the road, of needing to mobilise in Moscow and St. Petersburg and Kim gets money (I think it was around $2-3k per soldier). When NK starves it's citizens, because so many are in the army instead of the economy, any losses are irrelevant. 3, 10 or 50 thousand dead soldiers, when they have millions of (poorly trained and malnourished) soldiers means even less to Kim, then dead minorities and prisoners means to Putin. Shit, it wouldn't surprise me if Kim sees the deaths as a positive, with less mouths to feed.

While the Russian army and the Nth Korean army are similar in size pre 2022 (well over 1 million serving in the army), there is a massive difference in population of the countries. Pre 2022 I think Russia had 140 million people, Nth Korea has 26 million people (to put this into context that is a similar size population of Australia which only has 80,000 serving in the army).

What this boils down to is that Russia has the population to replace soldiers they use as cannon fodder. If Nth Korea has the estimated 500,000 casualties that Russia has then it will have a bigger impact to them. Putin could actually replace the troops lost by calling for a general mobilization and start using the population from St Petersburg and Moscow, but he is trying everything to avoid having to do this, hence why he's seeking to use Nth Korean soldiers.

I know the reports estimate 12,000 Nth Koreans deployed, but because of the difficulty to replace the troops if experiencing similar casualties as Russia has I can't see Nth Korea committing too many troops.

 

[peetoo]

Who here knows their tank stuff? Seems to me the M1 tanks we are donating are 20-30 years old.

Old or new makes no difference if they are a smouldering wreck

 

[Mobbs]

Rheinmetal are said to have completed construction of 1 weapons manufacturing plant in Ukraine, with 3 more in the works. Each are to produce different weapons, the completed plant should be producing Lynx IFVs (whatever they are) by years end.

On SM-A146P using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Baldur]

Rheinmetal are said to have completed construction of 1 weapons manufacturing plant in Ukraine, with 3 more in the works. Each are to produce different weapons, the completed plant should be producing Lynx IFVs (whatever they are) by years end.

On SM-A146P using BigFooty.com mobile app

An Infantry Fighting Vehicle, designed and made by Rheinmetall. They are trying to sell it to just about every western nation they can. An IFV is basically an Armoured Personal Carrier with more weapons.

Lynx (Rheinmetall armoured fighting vehicle) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Syd]

Rheinmetal are said to have completed construction of 1 weapons manufacturing plant in Ukraine, with 3 more in the works. Each are to produce different weapons, the completed plant should be producing Lynx IFVs (whatever they are) by years end.

On SM-A146P using BigFooty.com mobile app

Lynx Infantry Fighting Vehicle

 

[Mobbs]

Strikes in Voronezh, also various strikes around Crimea including the major junction in Dzhankoy.

On SM-A146P using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Baldur]

This guy uses satellite images to study how the vehicle counts at Russian storage bases are changing. Pictures of once crowded bases now empty give a good representation of how high Russian losses are and how many they have left in storage.

Covert Cabal

"War does not determine who is right, war determines who is left" -Unknown My goal is to create unbiased military analysis, which is something very rare these days. A lot of the military analyst I see in the media seem to be very partisan, or even just outright wrong giving incorrect...

www.youtube.com

 

[barreness]

So if 3,000 - 10,000 NK troops "don't change anything" you could argue that 3,000 - 10,000 NATO troops in Ukraine "don't change anything" either.

Does Ukraine have the ability to strike North Korea?

Does Russia have the ability to strike NATO/South Korea?

That's your answer as to why NATO/SK troops aren't in Ukraine

 

[barreness]

Hahahahaha. Just wrap it up. Sure.

Maybe Putin should concede they couldn't take Kyiv in three days and walk away before he bankrupts russia completely.

The three days thing is basically a meme, sprouted by nationalistic Russian state media and Lukashenko

In 2014 Putin did say he could take Kyiv in a few weeks, which was probably true at the time