Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here:

Europe - Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/war-in-ukraine-thread-4-thread-rules-updated.1376293/page-146

www.bigfooty.com

If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or starts to derail the thread, report the post to us and we'll move it over there.

Seeing as multiple people seem to have forgotten, abuse is against the rules of BF. Continuous, page long attacks directed at a single poster in this thread will result in threadbans for a week from this point; doing so again once you have returned will make the bans permanent and will be escalated to infractions.

This thread still has misinformation rules, and occasionally you will be asked to demonstrate a claim you have made by moderation. If you cannot, you will be offered the opportunity to amend the post to reflect that it's opinion, to remove the post, or you will be threadbanned and infracted for sharing misinformation.

Addendum: from this point, use of any variant of the word 'orc' to describe combatants, politicians or russians in general will be deleted and the poster will receive a warning. If the behaviour continues, it will be escalated. Consider this fair warning.

Finally: If I see the word Nazi or Hitler being flung around, there had better have a good faith basis as to how it's applicable to the Russian invasion - as in, video/photographic evidence of POW camps designed to remove another ethnic group - or to the current Ukrainian army. If this does not occur, you will be threadbanned for posting off topic

This is a sensitive area, and I understand that this makes for fairly incensed conversation sometimes. This does not mean the rules do not apply, whether to a poster positing a Pro-Ukraine stance or a poster positing an alternative view.

Behave, people.

 

[Baldur]

It also passed in the senate and is tied to Israel in one package, of whom Trump is a big ally of. No president can pick and choose what parts of a bill that has passed congress and the senate, that's a dictatorship. The Ukraine / Israel / Taiwan aid package will be delivered, it's just a matter of how long it takes to be delivered. i

Trump is also big on border security and will need support in the future for it. This is where he will trade support for Ukraine in for support on border security.

Congress allows the transfer but CANNOT force the President actually do the transfer, that's what the entire separation of powers is about. In the same way Congress can approve a treaty the executive (that is the president and his ministers) has negotiated but cannot negotiate the treaty nor can Congress order a President to negotiate a treaty.

 

[Baldur]

He can't pick and choose what parts of a bill that that has passed. If he were to do this he would have to do the same for the entire aid package. Israel than suffers and that's not what Trump wants.

A US government can't just walk away from contracts it has arranged with supply chains logistic operators either. The fact that the package is tied in with Israel means Ukraine will receive this aid package, it's just a matter of how long Trump drags it out for.

He can choose which parts he actions, if Congress has authorized say $40B to Ukraine and $40B to Israel, he can give $40B to Israel and nothing to Ukraine. What he cannot do is give say $60B to Israel.

Before Trump Returns, Congress Should Buy Weapons for Ukraine

An arms procurement fund would secure Ukraine’s ability to fight while helping American workers.

foreignpolicy.com

The important point is that Congress approves spending by the President for foreign relations or defense, but cannot order the president to spend approved funds.

 

[Zidane98]

Congress allows the transfer but CANNOT force the President actually do the transfer, that's what the entire separation of powers is about. In the same way Congress can approve a treaty the executive (that is the president and his ministers) has negotiated but cannot negotiate the treaty nor can Congress order a President to negotiate a treaty.

I get that. How realistic is it for a president to override congress though? Examples?

And would Trump withhold aid for Israel? Don't think so. It's all in the one package.

 

[Couch Coach]

He can choose which parts he actions, if Congress has authorized say $40B to Ukraine and $40B to Israel, he can give $40B to Israel and nothing to Ukraine. What he cannot do is give say $60B to Israel.

Yep.
Biden should just move all physical items to say Canada so that Trump can't indefinitely delay sending it to Ukraine. (Assuming the logistics to get it to Ukraine will take too long).
A freindly (currently, nothing is impossible with Trump) country like Canada would then ensure the deliver to Ukraine.

 

[Couch Coach]

I get that. How realistic is it for a president to override congress though? Examples?

And would Trump withhold aid for Israel? Don't think so. It's all in the one package.

He could just delay the delivery of the aspects he doesn't like.

 

[Baldur]

I get that. How realistic is it for a president to override congress though? Examples?

And would Trump withhold aid for Israel? Don't think so. It's all in the one package.

Now this may apply, it took some searching, almost all results were about trying to spend monies not approved, not the opposite.

Impoundment of appropriated funds - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act of 1974 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Trump–Ukraine scandal - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

So it appears that a president cannot refuse forever to spend monies. Interesting, not what I expected, how it works in practice, when the president can decide what items the money is spend on? Damned if I know. But it appears Trump ran into issues about this and Ukraine before.

 

[Aussie in exile]

What is the Russian official count for this...3 day operation?

Probably less than a hundred
Lets not forget the Russia lies when they was bordering troops on the Ukraine border and said they had no intention of invading Ukraine.

 

[Baldur]

Murder, torture, the reality of Russki Mir.

 

[Millky95]

Trump is more likely to given the Ukrainian aid to Russia to use against Ukraine lets be real

 

[Andre]

Theoretically, if US or European aid is enough to keep Russia fighting but at bay, how long would it take for Russia to reach the point of economic, materiel and personnel exhaustion?

Material and economic exhaustions are the ones to look for. They'll keep increasing military salaries and adding more 'crimes' and making it easier to convict said 'crimes' to keep numbers up for the meat attacks. I see economic and material exhaustion happening before Putin has to do a 'real' mass mobilisation, affecting Moscow and St. Petersburg, rather than the stealth mobilisation that's on-going.

The economic collapse is the interesting case. All those inflated salaries and others diverted to military manufacturing is keeping their inflation getting higher and higher, along with interest rates. It's also simultaneously making their currency reserves worth less and running them down quicker. Russians aren't going to trust the government to buy 'war bonds' (or have the money to), like the US used to help fund WWII. This is why Russia wants a 'ceasefire', before the hard choices of mobilise (so get paid shit salary to stop that bleeding money), stop or risk complete economic collapse.

The irony is Trump's 'Drill baby drill', could flood the market with US oil, depressing the price and also sending Russia financially into a worse spot. Oh, how that'd be a joyous bout of karma.

Materially they are set to start running out of various systems able to be restored from Soviet stocks in 2025, with others through 2028. Enough equipment starts running out next year, that if Europe has the will, Russia will be forced to the negotiating table end of 2025/start of 2026, under conditions they'll have to agree to conditions they don't want (like Ukraine into NATO). With Olaf 'I sleep with the light on' Scholz, looking on the way out and the likely German next Chancellor more Hawkish on Ukraine, Taurus might be available from April next year. Poland though is the key, IMO. They've ordered a bunch of new equipment. Obviously they want for themselves, but if they donated a reasonable percentage of that to Ukraine, it'd cover a large portion of the US shortfall. heck, give it to Ukraine on a loan basis, with whatever is destroyed Ukraine pays to replace post-war.

 

[Saint]

Material and economic exhaustions are the ones to look for. They'll keep increasing military salaries and adding more 'crimes' and making it easier to convict said 'crimes' to keep numbers up for the meat attacks. I see economic and material exhaustion happening before Putin has to do a 'real' mass mobilisation, affecting Moscow and St. Petersburg, rather than the stealth mobilisation that's on-going.

The economic collapse is the interesting case. All those inflated salaries and others diverted to military manufacturing is keeping their inflation getting higher and higher, along with interest rates. It's also simultaneously making their currency reserves worth less and running them down quicker. Russians aren't going to trust the government to buy 'war bonds' (or have the money to), like the US used to help fund WWII. This is why Russia wants a 'ceasefire', before the hard choices of mobilise (so get paid shit salary to stop that bleeding money), stop or risk complete economic collapse.

The irony is Trump's 'Drill baby drill', could flood the market with US oil, depressing the price and also sending Russia financially into a worse spot. Oh, how that'd be a joyous bout of karma.

Materially they are set to start running out of various systems able to be restored from Soviet stocks in 2025, with others through 2028. Enough equipment starts running out next year, that if Europe has the will, Russia will be forced to the negotiating table end of 2025/start of 2026, under conditions they'll have to agree to conditions they don't want (like Ukraine into NATO). With Olaf 'I sleep with the light on' Scholz, looking on the way out and the likely German next Chancellor more Hawkish on Ukraine, Taurus might be available from April next year. Poland though is the key, IMO. They've ordered a bunch of new equipment. Obviously they want for themselves, but if they donated a reasonable percentage of that to Ukraine, it'd cover a large portion of the US shortfall. heck, give it to Ukraine on a loan basis, with whatever is destroyed Ukraine pays to replace post-war.

Russia's response to the oil problem is to get the Middle East more fired up. Give Iran some Russian missiles to throw into mix, even give them directly to Iranian proxies in Syria and Iraq.

 

[wannabejack]

"It’s very important...

Who is going to be his Secretary of State, Secretary of Defence, and his National Security Advisor."

 

[Dirty Bird]

Trump is more likely to given the Ukrainian aid to Russia to use against Ukraine lets be real

"I recognised Ukraine's sovereign integrity and delivered it right into sevastapol"