We can still make the 8

[Bacon8]

Just to be clear, this is a post about our chances of making the 8, not how lucky or otherwise Port have been this year (I'm done with that and there's no sense in arguing).

Port's winning margins this year against non-expansion teams who are not Melbourne:

9 (Adelaide), 5 (WCE), 35 (Collingwood), 5 (St Kilda), 9 (Brisbane), 4 (Adelaide again ) .

One win by a double figure margin, against a string of average sides (including us, admittedly). I have less than no faith in getting a favour from them this week. Even if they do win (which I reckon they won't), we will need to make up the % gap ourselves.

You missed Sydney (18)

 

[PrideOf]

No. Port can only finish 7th. And Crows 8th.

Best we can hope for is a Grand Final clash.

Another Dream Final?

According to Chad Mk I, there was only ever one Showdown ... and we won it by 83 points.

Crows: 1
Smears: 0

 

[Elder van Berlo]

You missed Sydney (18)

So I did. Not sure it contradicts my point though.

 

[Bacon8]

So I did. Not sure it contradicts my point though.

It probably doesn't. Just be thorough.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

So Embley is playing his 250th & last game against the Crows - the team he probably has the best record against!

Not sure this is a great sign...

 

[Bacon8]

So Embley is playing his 250th & last game against the Crows - the team he probably has the best record against!

Not sure this is a great sign...

Start him as sub Weagles. So he gets a standing ovation when he comes on in the 3rd qtr, 10 goals down.

/dream

 

[Slippery Pete]

So Embley is playing his 250th & last game against the Crows - the team he probably has the best record against!

Not sure this is a great sign...

Would love to send him off with a belting.

 

[xchadders]

Would love to send him off with a belting.

would love to belt him

 

[daniel_4tw]

Paying $9 to play finals this year. What does everyone think our odds are?

 

[Elder van Berlo]

Paying $9 to play finals this year. What does everyone think our odds are?

I saw us at $10 with sportsbet last night. I think that's a bit skinny, personally. Carlton at $1.48 looked the best value.

 

[Jack is Back]

I saw us at $10 with sportsbet last night. I think that's a bit skinny, personally. Carlton at $1.48 looked the best value.

If you apply simple probability theory we should be about 40 to 1. The bookies love this stuff, preying on the hopes of supporters. Nevertheless we were about 3,000 to 1 a week ago so we do have a silly chance.

Fifth Leg; Geelong to beat Brisbane = 0.95

Sixth Leg; Port to beat Carlton by 4 goals = 0.35

Seventh Leg; Adelaide to beat West Coast by more than 6 goals = 0.15

Eighth Leg; Collingwood to beat North = 0.45

Chance of winning all 4 legs is about 2.5%.

IMHO the most likely outcome is that we miss out to Carlton on percentage.

 

[Elder van Berlo]

If you apply simple probability theory we should be about 40 to 1. The bookies love this stuff, preying on the hopes of supporters. Nevertheless we were about 3,000 to 1 a week ago so we do have a silly chance.

Fifth Leg; Geelong to beat Brisbane = 0.95

Sixth Leg; Port to beat Carlton by 4 goals = 0.35

Seventh Leg; Adelaide to beat West Coast by more than 6 goals = 0.15

Eighth Leg; Collingwood to beat North = 0.45

Chance of winning all 4 legs is about 2.5%.

IMHO the most likely outcome is that we miss out to Carlton on percentage.

If you put on a multibet of: Geelong, Port -30.5, Adelaide -30.5 and Collingwood, it's paying about $26. Of course, you could slide Port's line down and our line up or vice-versa, but it shouldn't have too much effect on the probability.

I did laugh at the discrepancy, knowing that their thought process would be as you say to prey on the hopes of supporters who see "top 8" without thinking that there might be a better value way of making essentially the same bet.

 

[Bacon8]

If you put on a multibet of: Geelong, Port -30.5, Adelaide -30.5 and Collingwood, it's paying about $26. Of course, you could slide Port's line down and our line up or vice-versa, but it shouldn't have too much effect on the probability.

I did laugh at the discrepancy, knowing that their thought process would be as you say to prey on the hopes of supporters who see "top 8" without thinking that there might be a better value way of making essentially the same bet.

I'm on -29.5 for both on CBet (with the others) and its $34.41

Alternatively, Port by +26.5 and Adel by +35.5 pays close to $40.. I'm getting on that.

 

[Niximus]

I'm on -29.5 for both on CBet (with the others) and its $34.41

Alternatively, Port by +26.5 and Adel by +35.5 pays close to $40.. I'm getting on that.

I think if both us and Port are to have wins big enough to get us through, they'll both be big wins. I put a little bet on Adelaide >40, Port >40, Geelong and Collingwood for around $47

 

[BrissyCrow]

If you apply simple probability theory we should be about 40 to 1. The bookies love this stuff, preying on the hopes of supporters. Nevertheless we were about 3,000 to 1 a week ago so we do have a silly chance.

Fifth Leg; Geelong to beat Brisbane = 0.95

Sixth Leg; Port to beat Carlton by 4 goals = 0.35

Seventh Leg; Adelaide to beat West Coast by more than 6 goals = 0.15

Eighth Leg; Collingwood to beat North = 0.45

Chance of winning all 4 legs is about 2.5%.

IMHO the most likely outcome is that we miss out to Carlton on percentage.

On 360 last night they basically ignored Adelaide and West Coast chances.... King stated that there too many things that had to fall into place for the Crows to get through.

Carlton can make it if they beat Port. Is this likely. Yes its a possibility but Port could also win. Lets say Carlton lose because without this happening Carlton the debate is over. (Brisbane could get through if Carlton wins but they play Geelong and their percentage is stuffed)

So Carlton loses.
If Brisbane beats Geelong they will go into the eight. Will they beat Geelong.....NO. So Brisbane are out. That leaves W Coast, Adelaide and Norths
The only way that West Coast can get in is if they beat Adelaide by about 120pts. So the W Coast are out. They wont beat us by that much. SO now we only have the Crows and Norths
If North win then they are through and no matter what we do its over. However will they beat Collingwood. On current performances the Pies have been looking really good. So I reckon that the Pies will win. So North are out.
That leaves us. Unfortunately we not only have to beat the W Coast in Perth but we need to win by 60 points. (for every goal that Carlton loses by it reduces that our need to win by 60 points. Given our recent performances we will struggle to win let alone win by 60points.

So realistically Carlton will make the eight. The good thing is that we will know what we have to do to get into the eight or whether it is even possible.

 

[1990crow]

60+ win against Dees.
Bombers beat Blues.
Pies beat WC, Hawks beat North
Port beat Blues (20ish points).
Adelaide beats WC by 5 goals.
=9th

Who am I kidding.

If we finish 9th and everything I've posted here happens then I may start betting on footy.

 

[Vader]

There's no doubt that Carlton deserve to be favourites to take Essendon's position in the finals. They can lose this week and still make the 8, provided the cumulative margins of the Port/Carlton and Adelaide/West Coast games don't go against them.

Historically, Adelaide have a very poor record at Subiaco, particularly against West Coast. Mind you, the West Coast I saw the other night playing Collingwood looked like an absolute rabble. If they play like that, then Centrals would be a strong chance of beating them - and Centrals are only the 5th best SANFL side this year. That said, I've lost count of the number of times Adelaide teams have gone west in good to great form, only to put in a truly shameful performance, coming home with their tails between their legs.

That said, Adelaide probably deserve to be 2nd favourite to take the vacant position. Both Port & Adelaide should start as favourites and Carlton don't travel well. It's not outside the realms of possibility that we could close the percentage gap - and it would almost be karma if we did, remembering what happened back in 2008 when St Kilda jumped us on percentage by flogging Essendon in the last game of the round.

 

[beartoo]

I'll be happy if we beat West Coast over there whether or not we fluke the finals. When you look at the games we've lost (choked) this year, the team needs a boot up the clacker. We should be well inside the final eight right now.

 

[Slippery Pete]

Is anyone else pinching themselves that we are still in contention?

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Is anyone else pinching themselves that we are still in contention?

It's been a weird season - we should have been gone months ago!

Doubt we will make the finals, but where there is hope...

I have a feeling the Roos may have an upset win & sneak into 8.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

Is anyone else pinching themselves that we are still in contention?

If we're in contention whilst playing out a 1/10 season, the flag is surely ours from now on every year

 

[jenny61_99]

Roos have been by far the stronger side not in the eight. But where there's a possibility, you'd gladly take it. Would be great experience for the kids.

 

[cmndstab]

Is anyone else pinching themselves that we are still in contention?

I'm more wondering why the hell we didn't give just a bit more earlier in the season when it really counted.

So many missed opportunities that apparently would now have us locked away inside the finals, however undeserved.

 

[GROTTO]

Ive booked the hotels and plane flights. Go Crows.

lol ok only if money wasnt an issue!

 

[BUTTON 92]

I hope it happens but seriously can't see Port winning in the first place. Their form over the last two months has been awful.