West coast %

[woundedcrow]

So assuming Richmond and Collingwood lose...how many points are West coast up?
I have heard even if West coast win by 1 point crows then still have to beat saints by 80? Is this correct?

WC game starts and 12.40pm will finish at 3.40pm....

Crows game starts at 2.50pm so by 3.40pm this will be halfway into the 2nd qrter and Sando will get a chance at a change of goal scoring strategy at thalf time...there will probably be regular score updates during the game....

 

[pjcrows]

If West Coast win we will need to win by more than 100 which regardless of opposition doesn't happen very often.

If West Coast lose then all we need to do is win.

 

[The Karma Bus]

Yes, it's basically correct..
If the results fall the way that it comes down to this..

1 point WCE win=we need approx 78 point win
10 point WCE win=we need approx 90 point win
40 point WCE win= we need approx 125 point win

It's pretty well around the 80 point mark needed to be made up..

 

[Elder van Berlo]

So assuming Richmond and Collingwood lose...how many points are West coast up?
I have heard even if West coast win by 1 point crows then still have to beat saints by 80? Is this correct?

WC game starts and 12.40pm will finish at 3.40pm....

Crows game starts at 2.50pm so by 3.40pm this will be halfway into the 2nd qrter and Sando will get a chance at a change of goal scoring strategy at thalf time...there will probably be regular score updates during the game....

We need a ballpark 70-80 point turnaround. It's difficult to say for sure because we don't know what the scores will be on the weekend. But if WCE won 100-99, we would need to kick roughly 69 points and then 7 for every 6 teh sainst kick. I.e. 69-0, 76-6, 83-12, 90-18

 

[Elder van Berlo]

Also, and I shouldn't admit this, I have a spreadsheet which does the calculations if you put the scores in for this week's game, and in particular if you keep it updated with the score of our game tells you what we need to do to catch up.

Happy to send to anyone who DMs.

 

[Justinpa1]

The WCE game will be finished by 3:15pm at the latest, so the boys will know what they have to do at quarter time (eg. Just Win or need to win by 83.6 points etc)

 

[SugarShane]

So assuming Richmond and Collingwood lose...how many points are West coast up?
I have heard even if West coast win by 1 point crows then still have to beat saints by 80? Is this correct?

Impossible to know exactly until the WCE game is finished, as it depends on their scores, not the margin. If WCE win 50-49 it makes it a completely different ball game to if they win 110-109.

 

[The Karma Bus]

Impossible to know exactly until the WCE game is finished, as it depends on their scores, not the margin. If WCE win 50-49 it makes it a completely different ball game to if they win 110-109.

At this stage of the year the total score in the game has very small impact as the total points for the year is so large now..
Earlier in the year, a high or low scoring game with the same margin does make a big difference..
The margin they win by will be the key..

WCE if they win 50-49=114.35%
WCE if they win 110-109=114.51%

A 122-40 win for us would give us 114.38% to beat scenario 1
A 125-40 win for us would give us 114.54% to beat scenario 2

So we would only need another 3 points on the margin if they have a high scoring game..
If that all makes sense..

 

[thebeedee]

If West Coast lose then all we need to do is win.

Where have we heard this before.....

Uh Oh if that is the case.

 

[Slippery Pete]

Of course you're all assuming Sydney and Hawthorn will win.

 

[The Karma Bus]

Of course you're all assuming Sydney and Hawthorn will win.

That's what it's based on..
Not going to mention it with every post is all..

Wouldn't surprise if Gold Coast beat West Coast actually and then the percentage doesn't matter..
And we will then give Lenny the ultimate send off with a Saints win..

 

[relapse]

WCE if they win 50-49=114.35%
WCE if they win 110-109=114.51%

Not quite sure on the maths there, the lower against scores always raises percentage far more than higher against scores.

The 50-49 is right, but the 110-109 margin one doesn't seem right. I have WCE's percentage as being 113.86% for a 110-109 result.

 

[The Karma Bus]

Not quite sure on the maths there, the lower against scores always raises percentage far more than higher against scores.

The 50-49 is right, but the 110-109 margin one doesn't seem right. I have WCE's percentage as being 113.86% for a 110-109 result.

I did get that one wrong, think I looked at the wrong figure on the table..
Or wrote an Adelaide number in the wrong spot actually..

But yeah, it doesn't change the percentage as drastic as if it was earlier in the year..
Something like a 120-45 result for us would get us 113.96%, so it still needs a 75 point margin if they have the high scoring game of 110-109..
As opposed to an 82 point margin for us if WCE win 50-49..

 

[FR0GGY]

Also, and I shouldn't admit this, I have a spreadsheet which does the calculations if you put the scores in for this week's game, and in particular if you keep it updated with the score of our game tells you what we need to do to catch up.

Happy to send to anyone who DMs.

Sando would like a pm please

 

[PrideOf]

Let's be honest here folks ...

This conversation would only be worthwhile if GAJ was playing.

 

[Tex200]

Let's be honest here folks ...

This conversation would only be worthwhile if GAJ was playing.

They only lost to Essendon away by 19 points and to Port by 9.

There's nothing to suggest WCE will boss them at Metricon

 

[FR0GGY]

They only lost to Essendon away by 19 points and to Port by 9.

There's nothing to suggest WCE will boss them at Metricon

Only just realised its here, was thinking it was at subi.

 

[BobaFett]

If it's wet, Gold Coast can win. We are a very good chance of still making it! Go crows

 

[anthc]

I have a bad feeling that Richmond will down the swans

 

[mattymac]

That would be far and away the most deserved outcome. I struggle to think of a side as hopeless as Richmond were mid year collectively saying screw this lets man the hell up and actually doing it as well as they have. You have to admire that.

 

[Geoffa32]

Very similar to the end of last year.

We needed Port to beat Carlton, they didn't. So it made the 100+ point flogging we gave the WCE irrelevant. Had Port won that percentage would have been important.

 

[pjcrows]

Very similar to the end of last year.

We needed Port to beat Carlton, they didn't. So it made the 100+ point flogging we gave the WCE irrelevant. Had Port won that percentage would have been important.

Had Port won I would bet good money we wouldn't have won by 80.

 

[Tex200]

That would be far and away the most deserved outcome. I struggle to think of a side as hopeless as Richmond were mid year collectively saying screw this lets man the hell up and actually doing it as well as they have. You have to admire that.

Agree - they've beaten us at home, WCE at home, Essendon at Ethiad, Port - if they beat Syd in Syd, then hats off, they deserve it and good on them - be churlish to say otherwise

 

[Slippery Pete]

I worked it out as about nine goals (give or take) difference between our percentage and theirs. So anything they win by, we have to win by, plus about nine goals.

cmndstab can a mathematician confirm?

 

[Elder van Berlo]

It's times like this you think about all the little things that got/cost us goals over the course of the season.

Sirengate, dodgy goal reviews, junk time... One goal could be the difference between finals and no finals.