Not sure what the exact GF win loss record of interstate vs vic teams are, but wouldn't mind seeing some stats where it takes into account the strength of each side too ie. ladder position, injuries and form. Add to the fact that it is also a normal thing for teams to either be on or off on the day regardless of strength, and not being due to location. At the end of the day the nature of our game is any team can win on the day regardless of any variables. Had all grand finals been at a neutral venue i don't necessarily think the record would be any different, and nor is it reasonable to expect the results to be an even 50/50 split over a long period of time. You can make it as fair as possible there will still be outliers and variables that skew the record, would be impossible to judge definitively. Umpiring aside would we have been a better chance at the SCG against the dogs in 2016? They did us there that year too. I just don't see the disadvantage, teams good enough to contend end up winning everywhere throughout the whole season.I agree with your first point and your last. Being at the G makes it far more special than it would be at other grounds. I can't agree with your point about it not being an advantage. History shows, and IMO will continue to show that interstate sides struggle to beat Victorian sides there.
When you have the 2 very best teams contesting the premiership there's often very, very little between them in terms of talent so any slight advantage is amplified. I think playing on a ground that you're team is vastly more experienced on and also not having to travel are often enough to swing the advantage in your favour.
I don't want a best of 3, or to have it moved but I think it should be acknowledged that it's a definite advantage on the day. ( I also think our club a probably in that same boat. They don't necessarily want anything to change, but highlighting it as another disadvantage to non-victorian teams doesn't hurt our push for change in other areas of equalization)
I still stick to my opinion that it's just a patch of grass with a set of goals on either side. The only thing that I think can make a psychological difference is a lopsided crowd which doesn't really happen on GF day.