Opinion Which direction to take from here?

[cynical]

need to look at out list and who should be gone next year

defenders - Rivers, Enright, (maybe Mackie although his kicking is needed)
Mids - Kelly, Stokes, Bartel, SJ
Rucks HMac

replacements
defenders Kolo, Blicavs, Smedts?, Thurlow
mids GHS, Jansen, Murdoch
rucks Vardy? Simpson? Stanley?

I'd be looking at getting Kolo 5-10 games and Thurlow when fit comes into the team.
GHS probably needs to replace Kelly and Murdoch should be getting some games on the wing (when he shows a bit)

one thing that really stood out was our lack of kicking penetration, none of our oldies can kick far, it's all up and under 45m passes

I think after Freo belt us we probably should be looking to finish outside the finals cos we really need a lot more elite young talent.

 

[Topper]

We're absolutely not winning the flag this year. That's not just based on yesterdays game it's actually pretty simple to see how many teams we're behind.

We're not even close to Hawks, Swans, Freo, Port, maybe North and a few others. We're a 5-9th team.

So why are we still trying to win a flag and look stupid doing so.

Play the kids, pump games into them, get some good draft picks for once. Reload and go again in a few years.

Right now we're stuck in no mans land, trying to win a flag when we clearly cant and not getting draft picks when we could be.

CS has to put his ego aside and do what's best for the future

 

[mcwilrob]

The next three weeks will tell us a lot about the spirit and competitiveness within the group. Fremantle, GCS, and North are three teams that give us trouble, with all three at home and after a smashing like that id expect the team to be ruthless...But whether or not we are still capable of that is, at this stage, a complete unknown.

In regards to our over 30's, im not so sure we should be throwing the baby out with the bath water just yet regarding their position in the team. Being over 30 isnt like it was a decade or more ago. Look at Hawthorn, yes they had some young players do well, but it was the likes of Hodge and Mitchell that set the tempo and provided vital leadership on-field. Our veterans are an asset, not a liability. Hopefully as the season goes on, younger players will overtake some of the older guys as it was with Milburn and Mooney in 2011. In that case the decision on what to do with some of the over 30's will take care of itself, i have faith in the young talent at the club. Lang, Cockatoo, Gregson, Jansen, Kolo in addition to guys like Murdoch, GHS, and Caddy all have huge upside. Yes they disappoint at times but that's because we expect so much from players who are still on the up. They'll get there.

CS has to show confidence in the young talent. Let them go out there and run and chase and tackle and give them a license to play with some flair and exuberance. Encourage them to take the game on, i loved Cockatoo's run in the fourth quarter (or was it the third?), yeah the game was dead by then but he was taking the game on still, we wanna embrace that enthusiasm. Lang too was great today, he put hes head over the ball and didnt give up, yeah he wasnt as clean as we'd like and he made some poor decisions at times, but thats ok, it'll come. Mistakes will happen, but that's how you learn. Dont ask, nor expect them to play like a hardened veteran, they cant yet, and we have plenty of those already anyway, let the kids play basic football. Get all the zones and shit out of there heads for now, that'll come later. It doesn't take experience to stay on your man and be accountable for him. We need to get back to some basic hard, disciplined, fast running football.

We have to play football like the team we are, not the team we were. Embrace the youth and all of its ups and downs. Let them play and learn together, and let the veterans lead, guide and steady them when its required.

I think you may have hit on a key point here. The team we have now does not have the speed or skills or ability to absorb pressure to play like Geelong of 2007-2011. It seems that our current coaching approach is oblivious to this. The "play on at all costs" with yesterday's team created so many turnovers or poor passages of play it wasn't funny...

 

[Vdubs]

We're absolutely not winning the flag this year. That's not just based on yesterdays game it's actually pretty simple to see how many teams we're behind.

We're not even close to Hawks, Swans, Freo, Port, maybe North and a few others. We're a 5-9th team.

So why are we still trying to win a flag and look stupid doing so.

Play the kids, pump games into them, get some good draft picks for once. Reload and go again in a few years.

Right now we're stuck in no mans land, trying to win a flag when we clearly cant and not getting draft picks when we could be.

CS has to put his ego aside and do what's best for the future

So do you think CS should be saying to his MC, I think we can't do it this year, let's play the kids, get some great draft picks for 3 years, and Bingo?
We still have some competitive beasts in our team, Hawkins, Selwood, Kelly, Bartel, SJ, Mackie, 17 premiership medals just there, and it's way too early to write off this year.
I am personally not optimistic about our chances this year, what's new?, but I can not imagine CS conceding right now as being positive for our culture.
What happened to the 3peat Lions team does scare me, because it was so dramatic and terminal, but it seems we have managed our departures and list a lot more reasonably. And there is no guarantee that bottoming out results in instant karma several years down the track- where are the Lions now as far as premiership windows?

 

[Vdubs]

Any team with Hawkins and Selwood, and an in-form Taylor, should have some direction. We need to build our stocks around these champions while we have them and see how far it takes us, and so be it if we fail-it's meant to happen according to the AFL equalisation policy.
There's no way we will attract a Dangerfield type if we look to be bottom 4 material for a while- Crows look as competitive as we do. It is a bit about perception. Surely Clarke left the D's to come our way for success, not $, I would have thought. Ironic in some ways, because Demons look great, finals bound.

Wait a sec, it is only rd 1!!!

 

[Topper]

So do you think CS should be saying to his MC, I think we can't do it this year, let's play the kids, get some great draft picks for 3 years, and Bingo?
We still have some competitive beasts in our team, Hawkins, Selwood, Kelly, Bartel, SJ, Mackie, 17 premiership medals just there, and it's way too early to write off this year.
I am personally not optimistic about our chances this year, what's new?, but I can not imagine CS conceding right now as being positive for our culture.
What happened to the 3peat Lions team does scare me, because it was so dramatic and terminal, but it seems we have managed our departures and list a lot more reasonably. And there is no guarantee that bottoming out results in instant karma several years down the track- where are the Lions now as far as premiership windows?

I'm not saying this should be the reaction after 1 loss. It should have been the direction at the start of the season.

Putting Kelly and Bartel back in the middle to address our clearance and contested ball problem isnt solving anything. It might bump us up to 6th on the ladder instead of 8th.

It's an attempted short term fix for no reward, so what's the point.

We'll just hover around the bottom half of the 8, not doing any damage, and not getting the rewards of draft picks.

 

[catman2006]

Has to be a balance between youth and aging stars, both failed yesterday showed we cant put 6 players who have hardly played any football in 1 team and expect a good outcome, we shouldnt change too much on the back of 1 poor result, let them reload and see were they are against another quality team on sunday

 

[ChappyUK]

Have been relying on the champs for too long. We need to see if the next generation will sink or swim.

So frustrated right now. Injuries to guns has cruelled us. If Menzel, Vardy, Cowan, McCartney etc played every game over the last 4 or so years we would be a totally different side. We haven't just had injuries we have had injuries to players that need to develop We are now Ill prepared for the handover.

Going to be a long season but I'm excited to see the future.

 

[thegerman]

need to look at out list and who should be gone next year

defenders - Rivers, Enright, (maybe Mackie although his kicking is needed)
Mids - Kelly, Stokes, Bartel, SJ
Rucks HMac

replacements
defenders Kolo, Blicavs, Smedts?, Thurlow
mids GHS, Jansen, Murdoch
rucks Vardy? Simpson? Stanley?

I'd be looking at getting Kolo 5-10 games and Thurlow when fit comes into the team.
GHS probably needs to replace Kelly and Murdoch should be getting some games on the wing (when he shows a bit)

one thing that really stood out was our lack of kicking penetration, none of our oldies can kick far, it's all up and under 45m passes

I think after Freo belt us we probably should be looking to finish outside the finals cos we really need a lot more elite young talent.

That's a lot of ifs, I'm more a strategy over structure sort of thinker. My thoughts are what do we want from the team, I.e. Challenge for the premiership: when? Once we have that date, decide how we can get there.

In that question, what is needed, I.e. FA players to target, players required to move on.

We currently have four fairly permanent IL. Two haven't played for a long time, plus this doesn't include Cowan.
We also have 10+ players 30 and over.

There doesn't seem to be any thought or process that can replace these players in the short term. The front office is not happy with how a few are developing, so they chop and change. They tinker, they try to rebuild on to run. However, when you have so many to replace, and not trusting or playing the youth and hanging on, creates shortfalls.

That's the problem with the current strategy.

We do need to move the age gap, by either playing the older guys less, or removing them all together. Also, we need to target the age bracket for sustained success in the FA market. And we need to hit FA very hard over the next 2-3 years.

 

[Pivo]

We're absolutely not winning the flag this year. That's not just based on yesterdays game it's actually pretty simple to see how many teams we're behind.

We're not even close to Hawks, Swans, Freo, Port, maybe North and a few others. We're a 5-9th team.

So why are we still trying to win a flag and look stupid doing so.

Play the kids, pump games into them, get some good draft picks for once. Reload and go again in a few years.

Right now we're stuck in no mans land, trying to win a flag when we clearly cant and not getting draft picks when we could be.

CS has to put his ego aside and do what's best for the future

In light of the Frawley decision I have to wonder if there is something else to trying to "rebuild while remaining in contention" and that is the arrival of free agency.

If a side wants to attract a top line talent then that player has to be convinced the club is around the mark.

Winning premierships is obviously the end goal but free agency has thrown up another variable for a side like us (as opposed to sides like St. Kilda).

If we want a player like Dangerfield then I feel we have to convince him that we're a chance to contend. I'm not too sure Frawley felt we were a side that could when he made his decision last year.

So it is now a fine balancing act. We need to get games into young players but we also want to be seen to be a short-term chance to potential free agents.

All that said, I do subscribe to this

Oh FFS. It's round 1

a bit.

Nothing wrong with generating a bit of discussion but I think I'll assess this more when we're a few more weeks down the track.

 

[thegerman]

I completely agree there. It's certainly not the be all and all. We are no worse than the likes of Richmond, Adelaide and Essendon and a lot of their supporters believe they can seriously challenge for a premiership which puts it into perspective.

This is also going to be an incredibly delicate situation in regards to offers being made by other clubs for certain players. Take Hawkins for example, absolute champion and very much a key cornerstone to our success but look at the next 3-5 years when we slide a little further, is he truly worth breaking the bank to keep if we are not going to be in the top 4 during the prime years of his career?
The same issue surrounds Motlop and even Johnson last year. We could get very high draft picks for one or two of these players. Draft picks like Hawthorn received in 04 which netted them today's eventual success.

As some have already mentioned in here, with injuries to some of our most promising youngsters, the club is in dire need of whole new batch of talented players. Players we will only be able to get through the National draft.

No. If we solely rely on the draft, we won't have any success for a long time. If the draft was best way to rebuild, Melbourne should be on top. Alas that isn't the case. The hawks are where they are due to receiving good picks from being bottom of the league. One of those is no longer at the club. They've dealt well, moved on senior players that take up TPP without actually in the frame for a game. Likewise, have moved on the perennially injured. The best point they've achieved, is being ahead of the curve on FA.

They are so far ahead of all teams in regard of the money ball strategy, it's not funny. It's quite embarrassing, that we expect middle of the road types from lower clubs to instantly be trained in the Geelong way and be league stars.

We need to make big calls on our veterans and come out firing in the FA market.

 

[Bobby_]

We need to make big calls on our veterans and come out firing in the FA market.

Dangerfield becomes a complete necessity now because Johnson won't be around and imagine if he wasn't out there yesterday? The margin would have been a few more goals in a rears.

If we don't get Dangerfield, we have to gun for highly talented midfielders in the draft. A Jack Steven or Jackson Macrea would be what's needed because when Johnson and Stokes retire at years end, we're really going to feel it through the middle of the park.

 

[Partridge]

all pretty good points partridge, some dark days ahead.
but do we play for the future and cop more loses like yesterday?

I wouldn't gut the team, that's not going to help unless they desperately want very early picks. But I think there is one thing we as supporters seem psychotically opposed to, and it's time it starts getting considered:

Playing veterans in the reserves.

For whatever reason, we just don't do it, we don't discuss it, we don't even contemplate it. Time to ask the question - why not? Why do Bartel and Kelly and Enright and Stokes deserve automatic selection now? I said at the end of last season I was adopting the null hypothesis, in other words I want proof that every player deserves his spot rather than assuming they're all great, and on yesterday's 'effort' very few would make the cut. Why can't Kelly be dropped? Why can't Enright? Because we as fans, and unfortunately it seems as a club, have far too much reverence for the past, not nearly enough respect for the present, and none for the future. Same with Simpson, if he can't get fit enough, he's out. Tough.

So I wouldn't drop 10 players, but I would put extreme pressure on the veterans now, and maybe it's time a statement is made. Drop Kelly for Horlin-Smith. Drop Stokes for Blease. These guys are not going to get better. We keep telling ourselves that and it's delusional. But to be honest, under the current direction, I can't see it happening.

 

[thegerman]

Dangerfield becomes a complete necessity now because Johnson won't be around and imagine if he wasn't out there yesterday? The margin would have been a few more goals in a rears.

If we don't get Dangerfield, we have to gun for highly talented midfielders in the draft. A Jack Steven or Jackson Macrea would be what's needed because when Johnson and Stokes retire at years end, we're really going to feel it through the middle of the park.

Yep, agree. I'm not sold on what Jansen can deliver either way, I really haven't seen him.

I think Scott Selwood would be up there in our thinking too. Though if we target Danger, will we have enough left over?

 

[Partridge]

Have been relying on the champs for too long. We need to see if the next generation will sink or swim.

So frustrated right now. Injuries to guns has cruelled us. If Menzel, Vardy, Cowan, McCartney etc played every game over the last 4 or so years we would be a totally different side. We haven't just had injuries we have had injuries to players that need to develop We are now Ill prepared for the handover.

Going to be a long season but I'm excited to see the future.

That's far from the only reason though. We were good enough to finish top 4 and be a very serious threat in 2013 without any of those players. And to be honest, the last 3 names are some of the most overrated players on here I've ever seen. Vardy has played 2 good games at senior level and that's 2 more than Cowan and McCarthy. As I said, we should stop telling ourselves how good we want them to be, and start asking how good they really are.

 

[Bobby_]

Playing veterans in the reserves.

For whatever reason, we just don't do it, we don't discuss it, we don't even contemplate it. Time to ask the question - why not? Why do Bartel and Kelly and Enright and Stokes deserve automatic selection now?

as some have already mentioned, this should have been happening as early as last year.
I never rated him, that much is clear but Mitch Brown didn't exactly get ample opportunities. He was available throughout certain periods of the season so he could have played ahead of Mackie. Joel Hamling was doing enough to get a look in but he too never got any opportunity. Hunt was injured for a lot of last year so he was a different predicament but what about Walker? His form was terrific in the VFL at the start of the year and he was never given enough opportunities to play, not just last year, but also the previous year.

 

[Partridge]

I'm not saying this should be the reaction after 1 loss. It should have been the direction at the start of the season.

Putting Kelly and Bartel back in the middle to address our clearance and contested ball problem isnt solving anything. It might bump us up to 6th on the ladder instead of 8th.

It's an attempted short term fix for no reward, so what's the point.

Honestly, if we play them both there year, I reckon 11th is more likely than 6th. They're not viable options as full time midfielders. Bartel has enough nous to survive up forward perhaps, but his reflexes and reactions are getting worse all the time. I thought Kelly was finished in September and I see nothing to revise that view. Notice how many of his kicks were up and unders yesterday that gave Hawthorn players time to spoil?

It's sad. We want to believe it's still 2009, or even 2011. It's not. It's 2015 and end is coming to hit them in the face, whether they like it or not.

 

[Partridge]

as some have already mentioned, this should have been happening as early as last year.
I never rated him, that much is clear but Mitch Brown didn't exactly get ample opportunities. He was available throughout certain periods of the season so he could have played ahead of Mackie. Joel Hamling was doing enough to get a look in but he too never got any opportunity. Hunt was injured for a lot of last year so he was a different predicament but what about Walker? His form was terrific in the VFL at the start of the year and he was never given enough opportunities to play, not just last year, but also the previous year.

That's exactly it Bob. Contrary to what you might think, I never thought he was a guaranteed star, but I did want him to get 30 or 40 or 50 games so at least we knew one way or the other. That's what frustrated me far more than anything else. One game, out. One game, out. And if they had staggered some games off for Lonergan and Taylor and Rivers, Brown - or Hamling - could have gotten more opportunities and it could have made a difference.

We're seeing it right now with Walker - he deserves a senior spot. He should play this week no matter what.

 

[Mac Cat]

it was only game one, and it was against Hawthorn but they looked poor yesterday. To some extent it was boys against men and it became clear to me that we are not going to win the comp any time soon. We need to just start getting game time into the kids and be prepared to drop games to do so. We won't win another comp in Bartel and Stevie Js time, but we might while Selwood and Hawkins are still around. Easier said than done but Scott needs to get his head around this. I see it as a similar situation to us in 2002. By 2004 our kids were on their way. 2017?

 

[Partridge]

it was only game one, and it was against Hawthorn but they looked poor yesterday. To some extent it was boys against men and it became clear to me that we are not going to win the comp any time soon. We need to just start getting game time into the kids and be prepared to drop games to do so. We won't win another comp in Bartel and Stevie Js time, but we might while Selwood and Hawkins are still around. Easier said than done but Scott needs to get his head around this. I see it as a similar situation to us in 2002. By 2004 our kids were on their way. 2017?

We are going to find out a hell of a lot about Chris Scott in the next few months.

 

[UnitedWarrior93]

need to look at out list and who should be gone next year

defenders - Rivers, Enright, (maybe Mackie although his kicking is needed)
Mids - Kelly, Stokes, Bartel, SJ
Rucks HMac

replacements
defenders Kolo, Blicavs, Smedts?, Thurlow
mids GHS, Jansen, Murdoch
rucks Vardy? Simpson? Stanley?

I'd be looking at getting Kolo 5-10 games and Thurlow when fit comes into the team.
GHS probably needs to replace Kelly and Murdoch should be getting some games on the wing (when he shows a bit)

one thing that really stood out was our lack of kicking penetration, none of our oldies can kick far, it's all up and under 45m passes

I think after Freo belt us we probably should be looking to finish outside the finals cos we really need a lot more elite young talent.

The problem with doing that is it would severely upset the older senior guys, like selwood, hawkins, taylor, Enright, SJ, bartel, kelly, lonergan, mackie, stokes etc, they don't want to be playing for draft picks, those guys mentioned are competitive beasts, and they'll believe they can win it, it's why they're still playing, so we can't put a line through 2015 and it'd be stupid to do so. I think the problem may be that Scott knows we aren't contenders, but doesn't have the steel to say it or take action and drop the old brigade who like I said, will believe they can win it.

Just gotta say it how it is to them, we aren't in a position to contend, so if you want to continue your footy here and help the youngsters, prepare to spend time in the VFL, or move on elsewhere or retire, tough decisions have to be made, short term pain, long term gain.

 

[Bobby_]

We are going to find out a hell of a lot about Chris Scott in the next few months.

we certainly will but even if he we do see some monumental blunders, he's here until the end of 2017 after having just signed a two year extension.

 

[cynical]

That's a lot of ifs, I'm more a strategy over structure sort of thinker. My thoughts are what do we want from the team, I.e. Challenge for the premiership: when? Once we have that date, decide how we can get there.

In that question, what is needed, I.e. FA players to target, players required to move on.

We currently have four fairly permanent IL. Two haven't played for a long time, plus this doesn't include Cowan.
We also have 10+ players 30 and over.

There doesn't seem to be any thought or process that can replace these players in the short term. The front office is not happy with how a few are developing, so they chop and change. They tinker, they try to rebuild on to run. However, when you have so many to replace, and not trusting or playing the youth and hanging on, creates shortfalls.

That's the problem with the current strategy.

We do need to move the age gap, by either playing the older guys less, or removing them all together. Also, we need to target the age bracket for sustained success in the FA market. And we need to hit FA very hard over the next 2-3 years.

There are 2 options to push for a flag one is to fill holes while Taylor, Hawkins and Selwood are still in the team, I think this is unrealistic it requires the use of FA and puts the pressure on Guthrie and co to become elite. Also very unlikely our kids will surpass GC/GWS. (and why last years trade period was a disaster, we could have got rid of some oldies while they still had value)

The other option is for Guthrie and co to be the older players in a flag push. That means no more topping up. Make some hard decisions now by turning over our old guys and finishing right down the bottom (likely bottom 4 considering the depth of the afl right now).

Motlop 24
Duncan 23
Guthrie 22
Caddy 22
Thurlow 21
Lang 19
Cockatoo 18

those are the guys im confident are AFL quality and that's only 7 players, not really enough at this stage

If we can turn those 7 AFL quality players into 20 in maybe 4-5 years then we can fill holes with FA and push for a flag around 2021.

Another option is to trade out the likes of Motlop and/or Duncan for quality picks and have a better shot further down the line. I'd personally take a top 5 pick(+ gravy) or 2 first round picks for either of those guys.

 

[Teriyakicat]

Please don't take this as being sour because it isn't. Surely Geelong's supporter base can accept bottoming out for a season or 2 after so long at the top? Whether it be sooner or later its pretty much inevitable that you will slide for a period of time. And its not even like the old days where clubs that bottomed out went straight near the bottom of the ladder... i'm still backing you guys to be pushing for finals even at your lowest point.

Good point. I'd be happy if we could do a Hawks' bottoming out - 7th, wasn't it? In 2009?, then rise from the ashes to play 3 consecutive GFs a few years later...
It's be nice to win all 3, too

 

[thegerman]

There are 2 options to push for a flag one is to fill holes while Taylor, Hawkins and Selwood are still in the team, I think this is unrealistic it requires the use of FA and puts the pressure on Guthrie and co to become elite. Also very unlikely our kids will surpass GC/GWS. (and why last years trade period was a disaster, we could have got rid of some oldies while they still had value)

The other option is for Guthrie and co to be the older players in a flag push. That means no more topping up. Make some hard decisions now by turning over our old guys and finishing right down the bottom (likely bottom 4 considering the depth of the afl right now).

Motlop 24
Duncan 23
Guthrie 22
Caddy 22
Thurlow 21
Lang 19
Cockatoo 18

those are the guys im confident are AFL quality and that's only 7 players, not really enough at this stage

If we can turn those 7 AFL quality players into 20 in maybe 4-5 years then we can fill holes with FA and push for a flag around 2021.

Another option is to trade out the likes of Motlop and/or Duncan for quality picks and have a better shot further down the line. I'd personally take a top 5 pick(+ gravy) or 2 first round picks for either of those guys.

I guess that's the point, using the FA system, means also targeting those you can trade for picks or a player coming in. That's the real money ball strategy.