Which side is closer to a premiership - Carlton or Essendon?

[Foxman98]

Umm no, lions started their build in 2013

If we were to have emulated the lions, yes, we should have made finals last year

You had 1 more win then them in 2013 2 points more in 2014 last and 2nd last in 2015 14th and 17th in 2016 16th and 18th in 2017 18th and 15th in 2018 16th and 2nd in 2019 11th and 2nd in 2020 and 13th and 4th in 2021 looks to me as if you were both around the same mark and one progressed whilst one stagnated

 

[Arr0w]

You had 1 more win then them in 2013 2 points more in 2014 last and 2nd last in 2015 14th and 17th in 2016 16th and 18th in 2017 18th and 15th in 2018 16th and 2nd in 2019 11th and 2nd in 2020 and 13th and 4th in 2021 looks to me as if you were both around the same mark and one progressed whilst one stagnated

Lions started their rebuild in 2013, we started ours in 2015.

Ultimately, each and every side handle rebuilds with different strategies, given draft picks, available free agents, academy picks, F/S access

 

[Foxman98]

Lions started their rebuild in 2013, we started ours in 2015.

Ultimately, each and every side handle rebuilds with different strategies, given draft picks, available free agents, academy picks, F/S access

You finished 1 win ahead of them in 2013 and 1 draw ahead in 2014 and and the same in 2015 tends to suggest you both rebuilt at the same time

 

[Arr0w]

You finished 1 win ahead of them in 2013 and 1 draw ahead in 2014 and and the same in 2015 tends to suggest you both rebuilt at the same time

You are basing rebuilds on where sides finish, without considering inequality of draws, injuries and strategies?

Lions lost the fab 4 end of 2013, that's when they started their rebuild

We announced ours end of 2015

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

Both sides have key positions they still need to fill.

Essendon’s midfield has plenty of talent, but will need to find balance amongst similar skilled players. Their spine isn’t that great, they need to find some quality in the key forward and defensive posts.

The Blues have a stronger spine but need for find some midfield support for Walsh and some better role players. I’d also be a bit concerned about the blues having the right culture just now, a lot of imports on big money. Do they crave ultimate success too or was money their main motive in footy?

I’d say Essendon but both are a way out from a flag.

If culture was an issue because of imports on big money, I doubt Harry, Cripps and Walsh would all re-sign. All three would have had plenty of suitors and could've named their prices.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

You'd wanna be on the Blues now.

 

[Some Idiot]

I think Carlton but it's hard to say. Teams are rarely as close or as far away from a premiership window as they seem.

 

[Red_man2008]

Current lists Essendon have the fair better chance, Their list is head and shoulders above Carltons however realistically both teams have large holes in their lists to fill to properly challenge and compete with the teams above them as well as the teams developing below

Head and shoulders. You’ve got to be kidding. We currently have one of the best defenders in the game. 2 of the best mids in the game and the best forward in the game with potentially another in Curnow. Essendon don’t even come close.

Zero KP talent outside of kids that are 3-4 years away. They have depth in the middle but Merrett/Shiel/parish might pale in comparison to Walsh/Cripps/Cerra.

 

[Demonic Ascent]

Head and shoulders. You’ve got to be kidding. We currently have one of the best defenders in the game. 2 of the best mids in the game and the best forward in the game with potentially another in Curnow. Essendon don’t even come close.

Zero KP talent outside of kids that are 3-4 years away. They have depth in the middle but Merrett/Shiel/parish might pale in comparison to Walsh/Cripps/Cerra.

Walsh looks like being a gun but needs to put a couple of seasons together before he's crowned the next big thing. McKay is probably the best key forward in the comp or very close to it.

Cripps was horrible last year and doesn't hurt teams on the scoreboard, let's see what 2022 brings. Weitering has shown enough but wasn't AA last year so a bit hard to say he's one of the best defenders in the game when he couldn't crack the top 6 in the AA team. If Curnow can play more than half a dozen games it would be a good start but he's missed so much footy will he get back to his best? Who will replace Jones as the 2nd key defender? Voss is also an unknown quantity, will the club bounce with a new coach or struggle to implement a new gameplan?

Carlton look like they could be a decent mid-table side but I don't see them getting near the top 4 anytime soon.

 

[Sector 7G]

Walsh looks like being a gun but needs to put a couple of seasons together before he's crowned the next big thing. McKay is probably the best key forward in the comp or very close to it.

Cripps was horrible last year and doesn't hurt teams on the scoreboard, let's see what 2022 brings. Weitering has shown enough but wasn't AA last year so a bit hard to say he's one of the best defenders in the game when he couldn't crack the top 6 in the AA team. If Curnow can play more than half a dozen games it would be a good start but he's missed so much footy will he get back to his best? Who will replace Jones as the 2nd key defender? Voss is also an unknown quantity, will the club bounce with a new coach or struggle to implement a new gameplan?

Carlton look like they could be a decent mid-table side but I don't see them getting near the top 4 anytime soon.

Interesting you are using AA selection to say Weiters is not one of the best KPD but Walsh, who was an AA, needs a couple of seasons to be crowned next best thing

 

[Demonic Ascent]

Interesting you are using AA selection to say Weiters is not one of the best KPD but Walsh, who was an AA, needs a couple of seasons to be crowned next best thing

Walsh looks the goods but he's had one AA season - I'm saying let him show consistency before crowning him the next Judd.

Weitering has been consistent but in 2021 couldn't crack the 6 best defenders in the league. A very good player no doubt but is he one of the best defenders in the game? Is he ahead of May, Lever, Stewart, Andrews, Aliir etc?

 

[Robertio]

Walsh looks like being a gun but needs to put a couple of seasons together before he's crowned the next big thing. McKay is probably the best key forward in the comp or very close to it.

Cripps was horrible last year and doesn't hurt teams on the scoreboard, let's see what 2022 brings. Weitering has shown enough but wasn't AA last year so a bit hard to say he's one of the best defenders in the game when he couldn't crack the top 6 in the AA team. If Curnow can play more than half a dozen games it would be a good start but he's missed so much footy will he get back to his best? Who will replace Jones as the 2nd key defender? Voss is also an unknown quantity, will the club bounce with a new coach or struggle to implement a new gameplan?

Carlton look like they could be a decent mid-table side but I don't see them getting near the top 4 anytime soon.

You don't watch much footy at all.

 

[Robertio]

Walsh looks the goods but he's had one AA season - I'm saying let him show consistency before crowning him the next Judd.

Weitering has been consistent but in 2021 couldn't crack the 6 best defenders in the league. A very good player no doubt but is he one of the best defenders in the game? Is he ahead of May, Lever, Stewart, Andrews, Aliir etc?

Mate Weitering was a CHB, name me six better CHB's in 2021.

 

[Demonic Ascent]

Mate Weitering was a CHB, name me six better CHB's in 2021.

He's a key defender. May, Lever, Stewart, Aliir all had better 2021's, he's probably on par with Andrews, Davis and Moore at the moment.

 

[Robertio]

He's a key defender. May, Lever, Stewart, Aliir all had better 2021's, he's probably on par with Andrews, Davis and Moore at the moment.

Only two key defenders there.

 

[WilloTree]

As Gerard Healy says: "Melbourne were bad enough for long enough"

If that's the formula, then I'm going with Carlton. Plenty of high draft picks to work with.

On the other hand, Essendon have the advantage of not having Silvagni butcher their list and waste the currency.

Tough call, but Carlton for mine. They need to give Voss a decent crack though.

If they sack Vossy after 2-3 years, they're not going anywhere - let alone finals.

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

Walsh looks like being a gun but needs to put a couple of seasons together before he's crowned the next big thing. McKay is probably the best key forward in the comp or very close to it.

Cripps was horrible last year and doesn't hurt teams on the scoreboard, let's see what 2022 brings. Weitering has shown enough but wasn't AA last year so a bit hard to say he's one of the best defenders in the game when he couldn't crack the top 6 in the AA team. If Curnow can play more than half a dozen games it would be a good start but he's missed so much footy will he get back to his best? Who will replace Jones as the 2nd key defender? Voss is also an unknown quantity, will the club bounce with a new coach or struggle to implement a new gameplan?

Carlton look like they could be a decent mid-table side but I don't see them getting near the top 4 anytime soon.

Interesting you are using AA selection to say Weiters is not one of the best KPD but Walsh, who was an AA, needs a couple of seasons to be crowned next best thing

Walsh has already put together 3 good seasons, straight out of the gate.
Meanwhile McKay has had one good season but probably the best key forward in the comp?

Weitering has done more than enough to be classed as one of the best defenders.


Jones will be replaced by one of McDonald, McGovern, Young, Marchbank or Kemp. A few sides have shown that you don't need two top class KPDs to contend. One highly rated defender and a good structure is enough, as long as the 2nd defender is reasonably capable.

I'd just be focusing on making the 8 for a couple of seasons before worrying about top 4.

 

[Ambrosia]

As Gerard Healy says: "Melbourne were bad enough for long enough"

If that's the formula, then I'm going with Carlton. Plenty of high draft picks to work with.

On the other hand, Essendon have the advantage of not having Silvagni butcher their list and waste the currency.

Tough call, but Carlton for mine. They need to give Voss a decent crack though.

If they sack Vossy after 2-3 years, they're not going anywhere - let alone finals.

Has Carlton really had that much better draft capital especially when you include recent drafts top 30 picks

2015

Carlton picks: 1, 10, 12, 23

Essendon picks: 4,5, 29, 30

2016

Carlton picks: 6, 27

Essendon picks: 1, 22

2017

Carlton picks: 3, 10, 30

Essendon picks: nil

2018

Carlton picks: 1, 19

Essendon: Nil

2019

Carlton picks: 17, 20

Essendon picks: 30

2020

Carlton picks: nil

Essendon: 8, 9, 10

2021

Carlton picks: 27

Essendon: 13


So since 2015 Carlton has had 6 top 10 picks and 14 top 30 picks whereas Essendon has had 6 top 10 picks and 11 top 30 picks.

Obviously who was actually selected matters a lot more then what number the selection is but I don’t think access to the draft picks is a good argument for Carlton to be better long term.

 

[Demonic Ascent]

Walsh has already put together 3 good seasons, straight out of the gate.
Meanwhile McKay has had one good season but probably the best key forward in the comp?

Weitering has done more than enough to be classed as one of the best defenders.
View attachment 1325750

Jones will be replaced by one of McDonald, McGovern, Young, Marchbank or Kemp. A few sides have shown that you don't need two top class KPDs to contend. One highly rated defender and a good structure is enough, as long as the 2nd defender is reasonably capable.

I'd just be focusing on making the 8 for a couple of seasons before worrying about top 4.

Fair call.

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

Weitering has been consistent but in 2021 couldn't crack the 6 best defenders in the league. A very good player no doubt but is he one of the best defenders in the game? Is he ahead of May, Lever, Stewart, Andrews, Aliir etc?

It's all very subjective. Those other guys all played in better teams with better structures, but his numbers are comparable across the board. Some areas he's better, some not. I'm not including Stewart because they're not similar players.

 

[Sector 7G]

He's a key defender. May, Lever, Stewart, Aliir all had better 2021's, he's probably on par with Andrews, Davis and Moore at the moment.

You are putting way too much weight on the opinions of people like Luke Darcy. AA is not the be all and end all. Weitering's 2021 was every bit as the players in the AA's. Was stiff to miss out but the reality is it is tough to make AA as a defender in a bottom 6 side.

 

[WilloTree]

Has Carlton really had that much better draft capital especially when you include recent drafts top 30 picks

2015

Carlton picks: 1, 10, 12, 23

Essendon picks: 4,5, 29, 30

2016

Carlton picks: 6, 27

Essendon picks: 1, 22

2017

Carlton picks: 3, 10, 30

Essendon picks: nil

2018

Carlton picks: 1, 19

Essendon: Nil

2019

Carlton picks: 17, 20

Essendon picks: 30

2020

Carlton picks: nil

Essendon: 8, 9, 10

2021

Carlton picks: 27

Essendon: 13


So since 2015 Carlton has had 6 top 10 picks and 14 top 30 picks whereas Essendon has had 6 top 10 picks and 11 top 30 picks.

Obviously who was actually selected matters a lot more then what number the selection is but I don’t think access to the draft picks is a good argument for Carlton to be better long term.

All good points. I see you haven't included the picks that were traded, which is fair.

I wonder what it would look like if they'd kept their picks and gone to the draft?

I can't be bothered going through all of them, but just the last 3 years:

2021 Calton were only able to use 1 selection (Jesse Motlop) at the draft (traded pick 6). Staggering.
2019 Silvagini live-traded the pick that he could have used on Kosi Pickett
2020 he traded a top 10 pick (Pick 8) for Adam Saad

As I said, Essendon has an advantage. As much as people like to have a dig at Dodoro, Silvagni did a fair seagull impression on Carlton.

Even if we only look at the last 3 years, that's another 2 Top 10 picks, and Kosi Pickett.

 

[Ambrosia]

All good points. I see you haven't included the picks that were traded, which is fair.

I wonder what it would look like if they'd kept their picks and gone to the draft?

I can't be bothered going through all of them, but just the last 3 years:

2021 Calton were only able to use 1 selection (Jesse Motlop) at the draft (traded pick 6). Staggering.
2019 Silvagini live-traded the pick that he could have used on Kosi Pickett
2020 he traded a top 10 pick (Pick 8) for Adam Saad

As I said, Essendon has an advantage. As much as people like to have a dig at Dodoro, Silvagni did a fair seagull impression on Carlton.

Even if we only look at the last 3 years, that's another 2 Top 10 picks, and Kosi Pickett.

Yeah post 2015 Silvagni struggled selecting talent imo. That being said McKay and Curnow are great get at pick 10 and 13 which helps Carlton supporters live with your SPS type busts.

 

[Sector 7G]

All good points. I see you haven't included the picks that were traded, which is fair.

I wonder what it would look like if they'd kept their picks and gone to the draft?

I can't be bothered going through all of them, but just the last 3 years:

2021 Calton were only able to use 1 selection (Jesse Motlop) at the draft (traded pick 6). Staggering.
2019 Silvagini live-traded the pick that he could have used on Kosi Pickett
2020 he traded a top 10 pick (Pick 8) for Adam Saad

As I said, Essendon has an advantage. As much as people like to have a dig at Dodoro, Silvagni did a fair seagull impression on Carlton.

Even if we only look at the last 3 years, that's another 2 Top 10 picks, and Kosi Pickett.

If you are going to say Carlton could have had more if they hadn't traded out picks, then you would need to do the same for the Bombers trading 2 first rounders for Shiel.

Bringing up Pickett is hind side recruiting. No one knew Pickett would have such immediate impact and Carlton was able to turn that pick 6 or 7 into Stocker, Kemp and Philp. Carlton supporters are bullish on all 3 despite the obstacles all have faced in their first 2-3 years.

The pick trade for Cerra is giving pick 6 for a 22yr old pick 4 that has met expectations. Pretty good business in my book.

Adam Saad -Austin overpaid - Good HBF should go for a pick in the 20s

 

[WilloTree]

Carlton was able to turn that pick 6 or 7 into Stocker, Kemp and Philp.

Fair enough.

I was referring to the 2019 Draft. If you include Stocker in the hypothetical from the 2018 trade, Carlton have Pick 4 in 2019.