Who can beat Adelaide? [Update: I was wrong. Someone can]

[Craigevo]

I'd be concentrating on your outlet passes far more than I would trying to pressure the ball carrier, because you don't have the explosive speed or the elusiveness in the midfield to generate direct transition from a stoppage. It's why you consistently fail in finals - when sides go one on one and it becomes about individual contests and talent, you get exposed for that lack of x-factor in the middle.

Have you even been watching our games? We have pace and elusiveness in the midfield in spades this year, Atkins makes the opposition look like they've got concrete boots on when he side steps, and Hampton, Cameron and others have the speed to burn off the chaser. Disposal by foot has also been a strength this year for the Crows when we're on the attack, and that's why we're scoring heavily from our F50 entries.
Just because you don't know our players names, or because they weren't top 20 draft picks, it doesn't make them pedestrian role players with lacklustre skills. The whole is greater than the sum of it's parts.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

There is more but I'm getting old and my memory is fading

... & that was just this week's wild theories...

 

[Bulldogs Legend]

The finals history between the two clubs would suggest otherwise [/QUOTE
No your recent history shows its unsustainable, cant win more than one final at a time!

 

[NikkiNoo]

The 2015 finals series need to be considered purely within the context of what happened in July of that year and how the Crows performed from July onwards. They would win an emotional/tough game and the succeeding week there was a significant drop off in form (mostly resulting in a loss unless the opposition was very poor). It's an aberration of a year because of what happened.

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

I'm not convinced that this analysis stacks up, so I'll try to check facts. (Having typed that, I don't know where this analysis will go.) i'll just look, for now, at first 11 rounds versus last 11 rounds. I'll just do the last ten years - i doubt Adelaide have many people playing who go back further than that.

2016: 7-4, 9-2. Won a home final, lost an away one.
2015: 6-5, 8-3. Won an away final, lost an away one.
2014: 4-7, 7-4, 10th.
2013: 5-6, 5-6, 11th
2012: 9-2, 8-3, lost a home final, won a home final, lost an away final.
2011: 3-8, 4-7, 14th
2010: 3-8, 6-5, 11th
2009: 6-5, 8-3, 5th, won a home final, lost an away one.
2008: 8-3, 5-6, 5th, lost a home final
2007: 5-6. 7-4, 8th, lost an away final

Finals performance can use a little work, but most finals have followed the form guide (so, when Adelaide finish 5-8 and win their first final, they usually lose the next one). But in H&A performance, Adelaide have been much more successful in the second half of each year - 56-54 in the first half, 67-43 in the second half. With one exception (2008) the performance has been consistently better in the second half of the year.

It's the same as when people say, "Showdowns are 50/50 games" or "the underdog often wins in Showdowns". When people bother to look at the stats it shows that isn't the case at all.

 

[TheRoo32]

I can already picture when we do lose this thread will get inundated with posters from every club telling us how we got ahead of ourselves and aren't that good...

Lose lose situation...

 

[TheRoo32]

Have you even been watching our games? We have pace and elusiveness in the midfield in spades this year, Atkins makes the opposition look like they've got concrete boots on when he side steps, and Hampton, Cameron and others have the speed to burn off the chaser. Disposal by foot has also been a strength this year for the Crows when we're on the attack, and that's why we're scoring heavily from our F50 entries.
Just because you don't know our players names, or because they weren't top 20 draft picks, it doesn't make them pedestrian role players with lacklustre skills. The whole is greater than the sum of it's parts.

Couldn't have put it better myself!

Apparently White, Trengove and Monfries are the secret weapon superstars that will make Port unbeatable. While it is Adelaide's midfield that is 'pedestrian' and 'slow'. lol

 

[Cromulent]

ITT: people getting sucked into JAnus' trolls.

As the old saying goes: Don't argue with dumb people.. They'll drag you down to their level and beat you with experience..

 

[captain ebert]

Give the crows the cup now. It's May.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Give the crows the cup now. It's May.

If only it was that easy!

Still 6/22 minor round games & finals to go... Which is a long way away & plenty of time for something to go majorly wrong.

I will feel more confident if we are in this form come round 23...

 

[Blue1980]

Do they play GWS again? If so they can lose to them

 

[Hobbes]

Do they play GWS again? If so they can lose to them

There's no match between Adelaide and GWS scheduled until September 30.

 

[The 747]

If only it was that easy!

Still 6/22 minor round games & finals to go... Which is a long way away & plenty of time for something to go majorly wrong.

I will feel more confident if we are in this form come round 23...

Might be in too good form right now - but we'll see how it unfolds. Heavy weather might prove a problem.

 

[Infra Ted]

Do they play GWS again? If so they can lose to them

They've looked very meh tonight. Far from invincible.

 

[Mattdougie]

There's no match between Adelaide and GWS scheduled until September 30.

Lol won't happen

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Might be in too good form right now - but we'll see how it unfolds. Heavy weather might prove a problem.

We haven't managed to get our best 22 on the park yet. Haven't had Tex, JJ, Gov & Lynch all in the same game yet.

Also, Cheney would be handy back as our mid in defence.

Ie. Imo, we still have upside...But granted so do most good teams too.

Key thing is being in a good position & in form going into the finals... as can't win a flag in May.

 

[AusTerran]

No your recent history shows its unsustainable, cant win more than one final at a time!

And how did your team perform in Finals before last year.... Didn't think that reply through did you

 

[exit]

This thread makes me uncomfortable. Heartbreak will happen. It always does.

 

[Big Crow]

St Kilda played a very similar style tonight. Ran and ran, used creative handballing, took the game on and always had numbers and options around the ball.

It really is such an even competition, any side can beat any other in a given week. Someone will have a day against the crows sooner or later, it could be tomorrow.

When you weigh it all up, we've had a good start but it counts for nothing other than being in a good position early. It's still a long season for a side with a lot of young players, let's see how it pans out. There's a long way to go and heavier grounds, colder and wetter conditions are on the way. I'm keen to see how the fast attacking game plan stands up. Tasmania tomorrow will be a decent yardstick.

In the meantime I'm enjoying watching the most exciting side since Geelong stormed onto the scene in 2006/07. It's good for footy.

 

[GreyCrow]

Correct, all the Crows are doing , and I hope we can continue doing , is position ourselves for the Finals. The better we are now the better our position. Then its a whole new ball game and then its anybodies

 

[Zevon]

Tasmanian weather.

 

[TubbsFarquhar]

I knew this would happen when this thread was created.

 

[Kerleys Ghost]

Well this is awkward...

 

[Dynamics]

Ok hands up, who said North?

 

[Kickin Goals]

North! Lol!