Who finishes last in 2024?

[rye]

west coasts spine is actually pretty good if they can stay on the park. barass / mcgovern / williams / allen / darling is much better reading than corr / comben / xerri / ccj / larkey. norths young midfield wont be able to go with the more experienced brigades other teams have for full games and their absolutely putrid backline will be exposed when that happens. maybe thats why we keep hearing clarkson is playing basically everyone as a defender.

 

[apollo_creed]

That's a wildly optimistic statement.

Why are you assuming that whilst they will improve, none of their opponents are going to?

the age profile of the list and the key players.
McKay was horrible last season, McDonald is a polarising figure amongst supporters, Cunnington only played a handful of games.
there's not much key experience and players who have either left (and were important) or players who are getting naturally worse.
the only one I'd note is Goldstein. North don't have anything close to a capable replacement for him at this stage, despite his age.

not every side in the competition has the same list profile.

and a 'wildly optimistic' statement that we win between 2-4 games from their first 10? they won 2 from their first 10 this season then lost both McDonald and Simpkin for the third game against Hawthorn. reckon it's a fairly measured view.

 

[the big lebowski]

I’m not saying we will or won’t finish last in 2024, but if we do it won’t be because of the loss of

Hall
Cunners
Turner
Howe
Goldy

Ziebell was reasonable in 2023 but also dry exploitable.

Backline is clearly going to be an issue, as McKay was pretty good for specific match ups and even better when he could focus on intercepting.

One aspect some are missing imo, is our inability to run out games in 2023. This should be improved in 2024.

 

[Anynameyouwish]

I’m not saying we will or won’t finish last in 2024, but if we do it won’t be because of the loss of

Hall
Cunners
Turner
Howe
Goldy

Ziebell was reasonable in 2023 but also dry exploitable.

Backline is clearly going to be an issue, as McKay was pretty good for specific match ups and even better when he could focus on intercepting.

One aspect some are missing imo, is our inability to run out games in 2023. This should be improved in 2024.

How far away do you think Phillips is from getting regularly into the high 20 disposal count? That'll go a long way to improved results - because if he is getting it 30 times, North Melbourne are getting first use 25 times and not exposing the defence.

 

[The Nostradamus]

How far away do you think Phillips is from getting regularly into the high 20 disposal count? That'll go a long way to improved results - because if he is getting it 30 times, North Melbourne are getting first use 25 times and not exposing the defence.

this should be his breakout year where he is doing that

 

[the big lebowski]

How far away do you think Phillips is from getting regularly into the high 20 disposal count? That'll go a long way to improved results - because if he is getting it 30 times, North Melbourne are getting first use 25 times and not exposing the defence.

Excellent question.

So I’m not sure what his 2019 under age running ability was like, but he obviously missed his draft year, played 2021 off effectively no preseason. Had a great preseason 2022, then got glandular. He completed a very restricted pre season in 2023, and was able to hit the 20 disposal mark you mentioned 5 times which he hadn’t done before this year.

I think he’s at about 80% of his maximum running ability.

He’s also ahead of LDU, Cunnington and Simpkin statistically for the same stage of their careers.

I think getting 18-24 touches most weeks should be achievable for 2024, with an average of around 20 disposals per game.

 

[Farang83150]

While people seem really happy to bandy around the 1500 game figure now, I'm struggling to recall any instances last year where neutrals watched North games and said "gee, if it wasn't for Cunners/Ziebell/Hall/Howe/Turner, things could have gotten really out of hand for North there."

Yes....

 

[Makeshift Park]

I think getting 18-24 touches most weeks should be achievable for 2024, with an average of around 20 disposals per game.

You only reckon he'll average one disposal more a game in 2024? Bleak!

 

[the big lebowski]

You only reckon he'll average one disposal more a game in 2024? Bleak!

Not really. Similar trajectory stat wise to LDU.

He went 10.4, 14.1, 17.3, 21.9

WAP went 9.5, 0, 18.8, so I’d be expecting a 3-4 possession increase. So 21-22.

 

[Makeshift Park]

Not really. Similar trajectory stat wise to LDU.

He went 10.4, 14.1, 17.3, 21.9

WAP went 9.5, 0, 18.8, so I’d be expecting a 3-4 possession increase. So 21-22.

Yeah but that was when Noble was trying to turn LDU into a flanker.

I'd like to see Phillips average 24 touches a game next year, and I think its a realistic goal, even if he's not in the starting midfield rotation most weeks.

 

[Orange crush]

Welcome to the hawks 2023 discussion. Hawks with the least games experience lost despite 9 changes in 2024

Looks like the average games lost over two seasons turns out to be average across the league.

Is Damo on holiday?

One could almost ask Are North Tanking?

 

[peetoo]

One could almost ask Are North Tanking?

It’s a form of, Nat.

 

[Jeremias]

the age profile of the list and the key players.

Are you suggesting key players at other clubs won't improve just as much, if not more? Why?

not every side in the competition has the same list profile.

I'm aware of that.

And not every side finished 7 wins and 25% off 14th.

and a 'wildly optimistic' statement that we win between 2-4 games from their first 10?

Yes, in the context that you've assumed improvement from them but given zero consideration to improvement from the teams they lost to.

 

[Elmer_Hauser]

Easy for Hawthorn and Eagles fans to take pot shots at North Melbourne in this thread when they have far less young a grade talent (on exposed form) than North Melbourne.

Doesn't matter what happens next season, North are much better equipped going forwards than Hawthorn or the Eagles, esp once Tassie enters the National Draft from 2026 onwards.

Hawks and Eagles are morals to finish bottom 4 next season, I can see North climbing out of that mire quite frankly

 

[Joao]

I initially voted North but after reading about Charlie "AA KPD" Comben it's hard not to have them in the 8. He's just the tip of the iceberg apparently.

 

[Makeshift Park]

I initially voted North but after reading about Charlie "AA KPD" Comben it's hard not to have them in the 8. He's just the tip of the iceberg apparently.

Doubt this man at your peril.

 

[Purple Suit]

I assume WC will get worse next year as the youth won't add anything in their first year and the oldies will drop off further. The middle group is far too small to prevent it happening. Injuries would have to be absolutely minimal to counter this imo.

I can see North & Hawthorn getting slightly better. It would take another team to implode further like the Cats or Richmond to have a chance to avoid it. WC would still need to have 6 wins I think and the year be much more competitive.

 

[benji2]

I believe in the Hawks, with that list and coach they're a red hot chance

If they lose Sicily for any length of time they may be in for a show of the spoon but if not I can see them doing their typical Hawthorn thing and improving.

WCE and North are still bottom 2 IMO, but I haven’t put it past Freo to have a bottom 2-style season either, can’t see much improvement in their list


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[apollo_creed]

Are you suggesting key players at other clubs won't improve just as much, if not more? Why?


I'm aware of that.

And not every side finished 7 wins and 25% off 14th.



Yes, in the context that you've assumed improvement from them but given zero consideration to improvement from the teams they lost to.

So you think every side has the same list profile? You really don’t seem to get that part.

A side with more key players or regular players 23 years and under has more scope for improvement.

 

[Juddernaut08]

North were competitive in most of their games in 2023. It's a fine line between getting close and turning half of those close losses into wins.

They had a tumultuous year with Clarko out, and couldn't build continuity due to injuries. I don't think North will be bottom 2 in 2024. Could see them finishing in the 12-14 range.

 

[peetoo]

Easy for Hawthorn and Eagles fans to take pot shots at North Melbourne in this thread when they have far less young a grade talent (on exposed form) than North Melbourne.

Doesn't matter what happens next season, North are much better equipped going forwards than Hawthorn or the Eagles, esp once Tassie enters the National Draft from 2026 onwards.

Hawks and Eagles are morals to finish bottom 4 next season, I can see North climbing out of that mire quite frankly

This post is very like similar ones when it started in 2001. North have made 29 ish changes since then. The fails can’t all be over 24yo

 

[Jeremias]

So you think every side has the same list profile? You really don’t seem to get that part.

Sorry, you must have missed my response in response to your list profile comment.

"I'm aware of that".

'List profile' =/= 'list performance' or 'list quality'.

A side with more key players or regular players 23 years and under has more scope for improvement.

Well yeah, sure. But this is a very simplistic way of looking at things.

You are completely ignoring other factors like quality, injury, form, fatigue etc., all of which are just as important as 'list profile'.

Again, why are you assuming Fremantle, Carlton, St Kilda, Essendon can't or won't improve as much as, if not more so, than North?
Is it simply 'list profile' and the vibe?

 

[Elmer_Hauser]

This post is very like similar ones when it started in 2001. North have made 29 ish changes since then. The fails can’t all be over 24yo

Speaking as a Carlton who has been through several painful rebuilds in the last 22 years,
rebuilding a playing list takes a lot longer than a 2 or 3 year window that many seem to assume it all takes. Hawks and Eagles still at least 18 months behind North Melbourne in your rebuild. Your best player (Sicily) is 29 before next season starts, and it's highly debatable whether he will play/see finals action with the Hawks (least whilst he can still be a valuable contributor)

North Melbourne are the only club out of the 3 (Eagles and Hawthorn) that I can imagine playing finals before 2027.

 

[peetoo]

Speaking as a Carlton who has been through several painful rebuilds in the last 22 years,
rebuilding a playing list takes a lot longer than a 2 or 3 year window that many seem to assume it all takes. Hawks and Eagles still at least 18 months behind North Melbourne in your rebuild. Your best player (Sicily) is 29 before next season starts, and it's highly debatable whether he will play/see finals action with the Hawks (least whilst he can still be a valuable contributor)

North Melbourne are the only club out of the 3 (Eagles and Hawthorn) that I can imagine playing finals before 2027.

 

[Blackhawk42]

Speaking as a Carlton who has been through several painful rebuilds in the last 22 years,
rebuilding a playing list takes a lot longer than a 2 or 3 year window that many seem to assume it all takes. Hawks and Eagles still at least 18 months behind North Melbourne in your rebuild. Your best player (Sicily) is 29 before next season starts, and it's highly debatable whether he will play/see finals action with the Hawks (least whilst he can still be a valuable contributor)

North Melbourne are the only club out of the 3 (Eagles and Hawthorn) that I can imagine playing finals before 2027.

There is no hard and fast rule when it comes to rebuilds.

I'm not saying you won't be correct, but what Carlton has done has no bearing on what Hawthorn or West Coast will do between now and 2027.

Also, despite North 'being ahead' in their rebuild, I'd argue the make-up of their list is less stable than Hawthorn's. More first round picks (all mids) and a gun full forward, but lacking in most other areas of the ground.
The Hawks went into 2023 as the youngest side in the competition and won 4 more games than the Roos did. To suggest they are closer to finals and Hawthorn's finals window is shut for the next 3 years at a minimum sounds like a preconceived idea based on particular historical situations with no regard for actual current output.