Who finishes last in 2024?

[The Nostradamus]

North were competitive in most of their games in 2023. It's a fine line between getting close and turning half of those close losses into wins.

They had a tumultuous year with Clarko out, and couldn't build continuity due to injuries. I don't think North will be bottom 2 in 2024. Could see them finishing in the 12-14 range.

Yep having continuity in our head coaching is key and another year to perfect clarko’s gameplan

That and obviously injuries will be the key for our success next year

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

There is no hard and fast rule when it comes to rebuilds.

I'm not saying you won't be correct, but what Carlton has done has no bearing on what Hawthorn or West Coast will do between now and 2027.

Also, despite North 'being ahead' in their rebuild, I'd argue the make-up of their list is less stable than Hawthorn's. More first round picks (all mids) and a gun full forward, but lacking in most other areas of the ground.
The Hawks went into 2023 as the youngest side in the competition and won 4 more games than the Roos did. To suggest they are closer to finals and Hawthorn's finals window is shut for the next 3 years at a minimum sounds like a preconceived idea based on particular historical situations with no regard for actual current output.

Don’t worry, he’ll be saying the complete opposite within a week.

That’s Elmer, covering all bases.

 

[Sphynx]

Comben hasn’t even played 10 games, let alone any as a defender. He’s likely going to need to learn on the job. If he gets struck down again, then what? Nyoun who’s played 3 games?

Xerri is good back up ruck to have replace Goldstien, but if he goes down who replaces him? CCJ?

Stephens might be a decent pick up, but he’s been underwhelming to date for an early pick so it’s a wait and see, and Fisher was not much more than a fringe player at the blues as a forward/wing.
The fact that he’s openly said his defensive side of his game was his issue at Carlton but that he’s going to play defense at North should have you lowering your expectations, not raising them.

Sure all your 18yr olds could come in and play like Sheezel, but the fact is that they won’t have the support around them to do that, with so many bigger bodies moving on.

What is far more likely to occur is that Duursma plays a lot of seconds footy so that he doesn’t get belted by bigger bodied defenders weekly. McKercher will get games no doubt, and will likely impress, but in an area you need it the least.

28 players on you list have played less than 50 games. 17 haven’t played 10 games.
I have almost no doubt you’ll be looking at these numbers by Round 10 as a way of explaining why you’re being routinely pulled apart in games, like many young lists before them.

We don’t need line breaking half backs?

Since when?

I’m quite looking forward to watching McKercher and Sheezel on either flank.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

We don’t need line breaking half backs?

Since when?

I’m quite looking forward to watching McKercher and Sheezel on either flank.

McKercher is a mid. You’ll play him at half back because you’re thin back there.

 

[Sphynx]

McKercher is a mid. You’ll play him at half back because you’re thin back there.

He has played all over the place.

He played a fair chunk of his bottom age year as a half forward.

Sheezel was also “just” a forward pocket this time last year.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

He has played all over the place.

He played a fair chunk of his bottom age year as a half forward.

Sheezel was also “just” a forward pocket this time last year.

Yeah, you played Sheezel half back too because you’re thin back there.

 

[Shueygod]

Has to be West Coast as they were terrible in 2023 and since they are only at the beginning of their rebuild they are only likely going to be worse in 2024.

Curious why we would be getting worse?

Which players have we lost or a falling off a cliff that will offset half the team (24 and younger) naturally improving as they age?

Not to mention the list of players we can get back that missed most of last year (McGovern, Yeo, Cripps, Ryan)

It’s easy to say on surface but realistically all the older blokes either didn’t play many games last year, or were shit (Darling, Gaff).

The only senior player that could have less output is pretty much Kelly.

 

[sports_fan39]

That maybe true, but Yeo and Hurn have had injuries as of late, can you trust they will have a full season of not being out?

 

[Blackhawk42]

That maybe true, but Yeo and Hurn have had injuries as of late, can you trust they will have a full season of not being out?

Not sure Hurn will be much use sitting in the grandstands drinking bulk cans of Gage Roads Single Fin.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

He has played all over the place.

He played a fair chunk of his bottom age year as a half forward.

Sheezel was also “just” a forward pocket this time last year.

Yeah, usual practice for young midfielders to play half back or half forward when they 1st come into the AFL, before they transition once fheir body develops to the rigours of AFL.

Don't worry, SYL hasn't worked this out as he still thinks Soligo, Rachele & Pedlar will never be more than forwards.

 

[Sphynx]

Yeah, you played Sheezel half back too because you’re thin back there.

I guess Collingwood did with Daicos too…

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

I guess Collingwood did with Daicos too…

Ricciuto started as defender.
McLeod started as a forward then defender.
Goodwin started as a defender.
Dangerfield started as a forward

These are the Crows best ever 4 midfielders.

Dawson started as a defender.
Laird started as a defender.

They are the Crows current best 2 midfielders.

 

[eth-dog]

Ricciuto started as defender.
McLeod started as a forward then defender.
Goodwin started as a defender.
Dangerfield started as a forward

These are the Crows best ever 4 midfielders.

Dawson started as a defender.
Laird started as a defender.

They are the Crows current best 2 midfielders.

Huh. Always figured Roo started forward due to how good he was I50

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Don't worry, SYL hasn't worked this out as he still thinks Soligo, Rachele & Pedlar will never be more than forwards.

No, this is not something that I’ve ever said, but you’ve proven time and time again that comprehension isn’t your strong suit.

I’ve called you on your statements that Soligo/Pedlar “will be an elite mid”, because if any other team supporters did that with 12 and 16 disposal flankers you’d not have it.

 

[Obeanie1]

Beyond "experience", what actual on-field contributions do you imagine any of these specific players making at North in 2024?

More contribution than half the draftees brought in.

Thats the point. The kids coming in will take time to replace the output of those retired / let go. Mckay took how long to debut? Three years. Rucks that as long if not longer, Goldy will play round 1 as Draper is returning from groin surgery.

It isnt an instant swap of contributions, kids take time to produce.

 

[Makeshift Park]

More contribution than half the draftees brought in.

Thats the point. The kids coming in will take time to replace the output of those retired / let go. Mckay took how long to debut? Three years. Rucks that as long if not longer, Goldy will play round 1 as Draper is returning from groin surgery.

It isnt an instant swap of contributions, kids take time to produce.

It sure seems like the same people who bandy around the 1500 game figure, when pushed on it, really just mean North could have done with keeping Goldy for another year and Mckay.

 

[Obeanie1]

Easy for Hawthorn and Eagles fans to take pot shots at North Melbourne in this thread when they have far less young a grade talent (on exposed form) than North Melbourne.

Doesn't matter what happens next season, North are much better equipped going forwards than Hawthorn or the Eagles, esp once Tassie enters the National Draft from 2026 onwards.

Hawks and Eagles are morals to finish bottom 4 next season, I can see North climbing out of that mire quite frankly

How is it easy if the Eagles and Hawks have less A grade talent? That make no sense whatsoever.

North should be better equiped going forward, they just recieved the biggest draft assistance packages in AFL history.

Hawks have already shot past North.......with no assistance.

Roos have the weakest backline in the competition hands down.

Not sure who's forward line is worse ether.

Midfield is stacked with quality youth for sure.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Huh. Always figured Roo started forward due to how good he was I50

No, played half back flank in debut season.

Mark Viska on the other half back flank from memory.

 

[ferball]

the age profile of the list and the key players.
McKay was horrible last season, McDonald is a polarising figure amongst supporters, Cunnington only played a handful of games.
there's not much key experience and players who have either left (and were important) or players who are getting naturally worse.
the only one I'd note is Goldstein. North don't have anything close to a capable replacement for him at this stage, despite his age.

not every side in the competition has the same list profile.

and a 'wildly optimistic' statement that we win between 2-4 games from their first 10? they won 2 from their first 10 this season then lost both McDonald and Simpkin for the third game against Hawthorn. reckon it's a fairly measured view.

We lost LDU and Simpkin for that third game.

They were worth 56 possessions and 1.5 goals a game at that point.

Didn't have Thomas.

That would have made it 76 possessions and 2.5 goals.

Those three playing well will make us a three to five goal better side.

 

[SSSSSS]

North or the Eagles.

Think they will both improve but can't see anyone falling below them. They are both a special kind of crap at the moment and their recruitment hasn't really moved the needle (yet).

 

[rye]

We lost LDU and Simpkin for that third game.

They were worth 56 possessions and 1.5 goals a game at that point.

Didn't have Thomas.

That would have made it 76 possessions and 2.5 goals.

Those three playing well will make us a three to five goal better side.

putting aside for a second the fact that simpkin is a scrubber

how many goals worse would north have been without ziebell and logue last year?

i do not think they win either of their first 2 rounds without ziebell and logue

in for a lot of pain this season with ziebell, logue and mckay not there to help hold the back line together.

 

[SSSSSS]

putting aside for a second the fact that simpkin is a scrubber

how many goals worse would north have been without ziebell and logue last year?

i do not think they win either of their first 2 rounds without ziebell and logue

in for a lot of pain this season with ziebell, logue and mckay not there to help hold the back line together.

North's round 1 team is likely going to be the weakest KPD pairing in recent history.

Fergus Greene booted 2 goals on Logue in our first game last season. They don't even have the 'luxury' of playing Logue.

 

[ferball]

Ricciuto started as defender.
McLeod started as a forward then defender.
Goodwin started as a defender.
Dangerfield started as a forward

These are the Crows best ever 4 midfielders.

Dawson started as a defender.
Laird started as a defender.

They are the Crows current best 2 midfielders.

There is an argument that HBF is the most important position on the ground and with the right players it certainly can be. McLeod is one who really springs to mind (and that was nearly 30 years ago.)

People often use the term "hide at half back" when referring to players like Daicos or Sheezel but its a foolish thing to say really because so much drive and attack comes from that position.

In your 1997 GF side Goodwin and McLeod were both named on the HBF, can't remember where they started the actual game but who cares. Players who can win the ball in the middle or the back flank who can move and drive the ball into attack are really valuable imo. If they start out there and develop the habit of getting the ball there and driving it into the forward line then they'll do that during the rest of their careers even if the start at CBs.

 

[ferball]

putting aside for a second the fact that simpkin is a scrubber

how many goals worse would north have been without ziebell and logue last year?

i do not think they win either of their first 2 rounds without ziebell and logue

in for a lot of pain this season with ziebell, logue and mckay not there to help hold the back line together.

Not as many as you think.

Obviously we'll miss Logue but Ziebell and McKay cost us plenty of goals with turnovers and shocking oof kicks at crucial moments. They were responsible for losing some of the five games we lost by under a goal. (Logue might have messed up in one of those games too.)

Anyway we've already seen enough pain since covid happened. What's a little more? If we have a stable year this coming season will be the first stable one since the 2018 season. That's more important than anything else right now.

 

[WilloTree]

Not sure Hurn will be much use sitting in the grandstands drinking bulk cans of Gage Roads Single Fin.

Still a good chance to play as many games as Yeo.