So why don't you have a crack at your Carlton friend for suggesting as much?
And... what is the probability of Carlton missing the top 8 from here, if it's not 1% to 2% (to cover agencies' margins?
Banter Who will be better in 2024? Carlton or Collingwood? Part 2
- Thread starter Wosh
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And... what is the probability of Carlton missing the top 8 from here, if it's not 1% to 2% (to cover agencies' margins?
Far too early to tell.
We've been too bust contending for and winning premierships over the last couple of seasons for too many of them to get an opportunity.
Though we have seen 9 debutants so far this year and many of them have shown they will have what it takes to make it at the level, to complement our existing young to middle aged core.
I find it humorous that you believe you are some guru analyst/mathematical genius and then we witness your predictions/wagers
Tell me, as a starting point, is this how you predicted Saints to finish top 4?
JustaBattler
Everyone Looks Better In Blue
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I'm a bit disappointed that you Collingwobblers haven't put the boot into Carlton's loss last night. I'd have to say that I was somewhat perplexed at selections, on field changes in strategy and matchups and the clear demonstration of the ability of the players Voss was testing to be beaten where it counts and that is hard ball ground ball gets.
Note, I am not referencing the inability of the defensive mix to handle the GWS FF when Weitering was absent nor am I referencing the absolute crapola game played by Curnow who I think managed to take less than 4 marks in the game - nor am I referencing the fact that TDK was absolutely smashed by the GWS ruckman for 3 quarters of the game none of these facts excuse - rather point to systemic risks needed to be addressed in preparation for an increasingly likely re-appearance in finals this year.
Surely the way GWS was able to score around 90- points to Carlton's 15 in 2 quarters of football puts confidence in opposition sides going forward?
Form a thread POV - I guess the only positive in relative performance is the likely exit of Collingwood from the top8 this week - but going forward there are a lot of 8 point games coming up - so this relative is not something I would hang my hat on.
Still, the old
tic tock
tic tock
veered against both teams this week - one team enjoying the benefits of the one game space into Top2 position - I would have thought that MC and coaches for Carlton 'learned a bit' about the capabilities of certain players under certain conditions for Carlton last night.
Note, I am not referencing the inability of the defensive mix to handle the GWS FF when Weitering was absent nor am I referencing the absolute crapola game played by Curnow who I think managed to take less than 4 marks in the game - nor am I referencing the fact that TDK was absolutely smashed by the GWS ruckman for 3 quarters of the game none of these facts excuse - rather point to systemic risks needed to be addressed in preparation for an increasingly likely re-appearance in finals this year.
Surely the way GWS was able to score around 90- points to Carlton's 15 in 2 quarters of football puts confidence in opposition sides going forward?
Form a thread POV - I guess the only positive in relative performance is the likely exit of Collingwood from the top8 this week - but going forward there are a lot of 8 point games coming up - so this relative is not something I would hang my hat on.
Still, the old
tic tock
tic tock
veered against both teams this week - one team enjoying the benefits of the one game space into Top2 position - I would have thought that MC and coaches for Carlton 'learned a bit' about the capabilities of certain players under certain conditions for Carlton last night.
One of the funniest posts ever
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and Dustbin is playing half a game every 2nd week for 1.3 million dollarsPies are cooked. Fielded the oldest team in the comp yet again.
Scott Pensionbury is slower than me, Jeremy Howoldisthiscampaigner is 34, Steelwalkingframe Sidebottom is 33.
And now 31yo Brody Pensioncheck is gone for the season, will be 32 when he next plays. And no rd 1 draft pick. What a mess this list is. Need to get Ned Guy back to sort it out.
JustaBattler
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I've just told you probability isn't a market Fudgey. Margins are part of a market. I dont use the layperson's error when talking markets ie I don't confuse probability theory with market theory.
You could of course do some simple applied matrix math and use whatever numbers you wish to use and whatever outcomes in coming games you wish to use and come up with a faux answer which will change according to every relevant game played and its non random (but unknown) outcomes which no one could organise in a few lines of code or you can use squiggle to do same silly exercise over and over and over again- and you would still not be talking 'probability' all you would be talking is 'opinion' and 'guess' - until the games have been played and the outcome is determined - that is all there is.
eg there is no way I would have predicted Carlton to score 50 points against GWS in Q1 last night OR GWS to score ~90- points to Carlton's 15 over 2 quarters. I doubt anyone could have 'predicted' such weird things using ANY known Mathematics.
- Mar 21, 2018
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Wotchu talkinbout Willis?
Robertio
Spotswood Guinness Bar manager
You're the best team outside the eight lol.
When they slide down to 9th today they will be considered nothing but an average footy side
- Mar 7, 2006
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How is that a meaningless game, you’ve lost your cushion in the top 4.
Absolutely not meaningless.
Blueshakes are rumbling!!
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Don’t think Walsh is in your top 5 players
Going by earlier posts, your top 5 players are obviously Fogarty, Motlop, McGovern, Saad and Martin
Robertio
Spotswood Guinness Bar manager
One of us are 2nd and the other will be out of the eight tonight and playing Geelong next week.
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Spin it however you like, it was a bad loss last night.
Top 2 my little bandit friend, top 2
JustaBattler
Everyone Looks Better In Blue
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worse than bad - no one is spinning anything good thing is it changed nothing re this thread.
Robertio
Spotswood Guinness Bar manager
He won the Gary Ayers medal against the top teams, that's nonsense.
Pies had 2 cracks at essendon and didn't get a win. Doesn't get much worse than that
Robertio
Spotswood Guinness Bar manager
All losses are bad mate.
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No game is meaningless at this point of the season but we were always going to drop games. Still have some tough games to come in the next month or so - just gotta keep fronting up and bring our best
- Mar 7, 2006
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I know where Collingwood are at ATM. We have struggled to get any continuity going this season with key players missing for most the season, Miohcek now out for the season hurts us big time, we will offset this slightly with the pending return of McStay, but he may be underdone and we already have a few underdone players running around at the moment. Time is against us a little, but I do know that if the group regains the hunger then not many teams can go with Collingwood, which is what I’m hoping for in this last 7 games. Monumentum is the biggest thing in AFL and we still have time to regain some of that, and if we do it will be all down to timing it perfectly.
Whereas the Blues last night did choke, and it showed the rest of the comp your vulnerabilities. You cannot be 7 goals in front and think otherwise, hell you blokes of all people have stuck boots into Pies at various times for the exact same thing.
Carlton have been for the past month the side everyone wouldnt of wanted to come up against, but now that GWS exposed a few areas of your game it will give clubs more belief they can beat you. All final aspirants would have been watching last night closely.
To me it looks as if you tag Walsh he doesn’t like nor can really handle it, leaving it all to Cripps in the middle. TDK was monstered by Briggs who hit him hard and he didn’t really like it too much, and just heat in numbers made you guys very fumbly and unsure.
Not to mention Weitering spent 10 mins on the bench and you guys seriously looked all at sea down back.
7 weeks is a long time in football, you’ve given the comp a glimpse and you’ve lost your cushion in the top 4. Bulldogs after a heavy defeat this week will be a stern test, and who knows, this time next week you may be out of the 4.
God we love this game
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100%, and that’s why you’re the best poster in here !
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