So why don't you have a crack at your Carlton friend for suggesting as much?
And... what is the probability of Carlton missing the top 8 from here, if it's not 1% to 2% (to cover agencies' margins?
I find it humorous that you believe you are some guru analyst/mathematical genius and then we witness your predictions/wagers
Tell me, as a starting point, is this how you predicted Saints to finish top 4?