Banter Who will be Better in 2025, Collingwood or Carlton? Part 4

[Fadge]

Ive explained your stoopid stats on so many occassions fudgey ...come on now - read any book starting with the first chapter on distribution theory....probability only works in 'coin toss' simulations ...but I think you have always not really understood what 'coin toss situations' means.

Oh.

So we can't derive a rationale to calculate the probability of a team (any team) not winning a premiership for the next 21 years, because it's not a 'coin toss simulation' (or situation)?

I appreciate it's not a scenario you would like to imagine, but unfortunately for you, your team is well on it's way to making it a reality.

So....

Carlton not winning a flag for the next 21 years:

• It's not 0%
• It's not 100%

It MUST therefore be somewhere inbetween, right?

 

[Arr0w]

And I explained why I didn't at the time, you fool.

But do go ahead and provide the 'correct' probability (or you might refer to it as 'possibility')...

At the time, you claimed, on multiple occasions that you were correct, without any doubt

Tassy entering the competition was a known "fact"

So...

"At what point did you insert Tassy in your dataset?"

You now backtrack and state "And I explained why I didn't at the time". I take it you have evidence of this when you shared your theory?

And then you play the poster again. You really are the illegitimate 8th dwarf, Nuffy

 

[Robertio]

8 of your flags were achieved through corrupt zoning (courtesy of cheating Bluebagger Kenneth Luke) and salary cap rorting.

If the AFL had s backbone 1995 would be stripped from you.

Why should they take away the 95 flag?

 

[Fadge]

At the time, you claimed, on multiple occasions that you were correct, without any doubt

Tassy entering the competition was a known "fact"

So...

"At what point did you insert Tassy in your dataset?"

You now backtrack and state "And I explained why I didn't at the time". I take it you have evidence of this when you shared your theory?

And then you play the poster again. You really are the illegitimate 8th dwarf, Nuffy

Lying again.

Anyway, what is the 'more accurate probability', or on your world, 'possibility'?

 

[Arr0w]

Lying again.

Yet, you claimed that you left out tassy as part of your theory, at the time

I guess you have evidence?

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Oh.

So we can't derive a rationale to calculate the probability of a team (any team) not winning a premiership for the next 21 years, because it's not a 'coin toss simulation' (or situation)?

I appreciate it's not a scenario you would like to imagine, but unfortunately for you, your team is well on it's way to making it a reality.

So....

Carlton not winning a flag for the next 21 years:

• It's not 0%
• It's not 100%

It MUST therefore be somewhere inbetween, right?

Fudgey we're not going through this again... You've already been laughed at enough over this.

There are too many factors to account for to accurately calculate it.

 

[Fadge]

Yet, you claimed that you left out tassy as part of your theory, at the time

I guess you have evidence?

When I was questioned about it, it's exactly what I said.

Stop deflecting.

If the probability of Carlton's current premiership drought extending to 50 years and beyond isn't 30%, what is it?

Would you be happier if I referenced 32% instead, and assumed we wouldn't have any current teams merge or fold?

Do I need to assume we'll get a 20th team at some stage, meaning the probability would then be circa 34%?

Come on, put your gonads on the line and come up with an answer.

Because it's not 0%, nor is it 100%....

 

[Fadge]

Fudgey we're not going through this again... You've already been laughed at enough over this.

There are too many factors to account for to accurately calculate it.

It's amazing that any betting agencies are able to ever offer any odds on anything, isn't it?

 

[Arr0w]

When I was questioned about it, it's exactly what I said.

Stop deflecting.

If the probability of Carlton's current premiership drought extending to 50 years and beyond isn't 30%, what is it?

Would you be happier if I referenced 32% instead, and assumed we wouldn't have any current teams merge or fold?

Do I need to assume we'll get a 20th team at some stage, meaning the probability would then be circa 34%?

Come on, put your gonads on the line and come up with an answer.

Because it's not 0%, nor is it 100%....

I'll wait for evidence where you stated you left tassy out of your theory, at the time

Go

Careful though, we know what happened last time

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

It's amazing that any betting agencies are able to ever offer any odds on anything, isn't it?

How many betting agencies are taking cash for whats going to happen in sports 20 years from now?

And tell me why they aren't?

 

[Arr0w]

It's amazing that any betting agencies are able to ever offer any odds on anything, isn't it?

You really want to bring up betting odds again?

 

[Fadge]

How many betting agencies are taking cash for whats going to happen in sports 20 years from now?

And tell me why they aren't?

I'm sure if you called up Sportsbet or Ladbrokes and told them you had money to invest in a certain event, they'd be more than happy to provide you with odds and accept your bet.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

I'm sure if you called up Sportsbet or Ladbrokes and told them you had money to invest in a certain event, they'd be more than happy to provide you with odds and accept your bet.

For what's going to happen in 2050? You know as well as I do there's not a chance in hell they would lmao

 

[Fadge]

You really want to bring up betting odds again?

I'm happy to, if it makes you completely embarrass yourself in the way you usually do...

 

[Irish BlueBagger]

8 of your flags were achieved through corrupt zoning (courtesy of cheating Bluebagger Kenneth Luke) and salary cap rorting.

If the AFL had s backbone 1995 would be stripped from you.

Keep crying me your bitter tears Collingwood boy.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

I'm happy to, if it makes you completely embarrass yourself in the way you usually do...

Whats the market like ATM for the 2025 flag? Where are Carlton and Collingwood placed rn?

 

[Fadge]

For what's going to happen in 2050? You know as well as I do there's not a chance in hell they would lmao

Hmmmmm....

 

[Arr0w]

I'm happy to, if it makes you completely embarrass yourself in the way you usually do...

That's right, it was me that laid that wager

 

[Arr0w]

Fadge makes claims of an accurate probability, challenged numerous times to check data, thinks calculations are correct, but fails to understand that part of the timeline, another side enters the equation

Then, falsely claims 19th side was left out on purpose, at the time of theory/calculations

Challenged again, this time to provide evidence, of such a statement, but can't

Yet, calls others liars

Oh my

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Fadge makes claims of an accurate probability, challenged numerous times to check data, thinks calculations are correct, but fails to understand that part of the timeline, another side enters the equation

Then, falsely claims 19th side was left out on purpose, at the time of theory/calculations

Challenged again, this time to provide evidence, of such a statement, but can't

Yet, calls others liars

Oh my

For all we know a 20th team is in the AFLs short term plans for the future too. But Fudgey will still be babbling on about the same crap by then too.

Broken record personified

 

[Fadge]

For all we know a 20th team is in the AFLs short term plans for the future too. But Fudgey will still be babbling on about the same crap by then too.

Broken record personified

And as I said earlier, that was precisely my rationale.

You could consider the probability of additional teams entering the competition, other teams folding, Carlton themselves folding, the world ending.

But it's all rats and mice, and would not make a material difference to the end result.

But the probability isn't 0%, nor is it 100%, so it must be somewhere in between, right?

 

[Arr0w]

For all we know a 20th team is in the AFLs short term plans for the future too. But Fudgey will still be babbling on about the same crap by then too.

Broken record personified

I thought it was just incompetence, but starting to feel sorry for them, think there are other issues at play

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

And as I said earlier, that was precisely my rationale.

You could consider the probability of additional teams entering the competition, other teams folding, Carlton themselves folding, the world ending.

But it's all rats and mice, and would not make a material difference to the end result.

But the probability isn't 0%, nor is it 100%, so it must be somewhere in between, right?

To accurately calculate the probability of what you're discussing is far too complex for ur abacus Fudgey.

Move on from this nonsense and get back to defending Nicky being a squib or the Pies list being absolutely cooked.

This is genuine flat earther level junk.

 

[Fadge]

I love it how CArr0w's big gotcha moment was 'der her her, you forgot about Tasmania...' when anyone with a half functioning brain would have considered that in line with the number of other possibilities such as other teams folding, the world ending, etc., and deduced that any possibilities in addition to the existing 18 team competition at the time were immaterial to the final result.

But, but, but... 'Tasmania! Gotcha!'.

 

[Fadge]

To accurately calculate the probability of what you're discussing is far too complex for ur abacus Fudgey.

No, it's apparently far too complex for you to get your head around.

And so too for your Carlton brethren.

But I do understand that it's not a scenario you really want to be considering. So I do get that....

You would rather spend your time focusing on how 'next year will finally be the year when everything is different!'