Banter Who will be Better in 2025, Collingwood or Carlton? Part 4

[Fadge]

How much of your predictions are based on the past, or is that all you base them on?

How much forecasting do you do in your predictions and what, if anything, does that forecasting involve?
Natural improvement of individuals and playing groups, a cultural "shift" of clubs, in the way they do things differently to the past, is there a change in leadership, within the club's 4 walls. How much effect, if any does that have? Onset of new/fresh talent?

Just curious really because most of your posts about how we will do in the next year and beyond seem to involve a great deal about the past.

It's pretty simple with Carlton.

1. They've fallen well short of contending for premierships to date;
2. There are other clubs from whom I see better youth, and therefore more expected growth from that youth;
3. Their list objectively went backwards over the trade period.
4. I don't think the impact of injuries were as great as many Carlton supporters have made them out to be, given the continuity they had from their top 6 players (and Carlton rely on their top 6 more than any other team in the competition).

As a result, I see them in worse shape than they were in 2024.

 

[Bale Dup]

It's pretty simple with Carlton.

1. They've fallen well short of contending for premierships to date;
2. There are other clubs from whom I see better youth, and therefore more expected growth from that youth;
3. Their list objectively went backwards over the trade period.
4. I don't think the impact of injuries were as great as many Carlton supporters have made then out to be, given the continuity they had from their top 6 players (and Carlton rely on their top 6 more than any other team in the competition).

As a result, I see them in worse shape than they were in 2024.

Yep. Pretty "simple" really

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[Fadge]

Yep. Pretty "simple" really

Glad you agree.

 

[Bale Dup]

Glad you agree.

That your methods are simple, yes I do.

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[Chronz]

Carlton closing the gap in the poll.

The Cavalry has arrived!

Understandable from their piss easy fixture.

 

[Fadge]

Let's have a look at the premiership credentials of the clubs I think can be contenders:

Brisbane - reigning premiers; return of Coleman, Doedee, Gardiner, McCarthy from knees; injection of LAshcroft and improvement from young guns WAshcroft, Loehmann, Fletcher, etc.; have been regular contenders for past handful of seasons;

GWS - Have contended for the premiership the past two seasons and fallen agonisingly short in their past 3 finals against the 2024 Premiers and Runners-Up and the 2023 Premiers; Well balanced and deep squad with plenty of experience across the park; Fell short of qualifying for a 2024 Prelim Final against Port (and therefore likely Grand Final) courtesy of one of the best finals ever played by an individual (Heeney).

Sydney - Reigning minor Premiers and runners-up in 2 of the past 3 seasons; How is a midfield of Heeney, Warner, Gulden, Rowbottom and Mills going to be any worse in 2025 than they were in 2024?; Young key forwards only going to get better.

Collingwood - 2023 Premiers after falling agonisingly short in the 2022 Prelim; have bolstered their list with Houston and Perryman; finished 2024 as well as any team as evidenced by their late games against the eventual Grand Finalists; Nick Daicos.

Geelong - 2022 Premiers and fell agonisingly short of the 2024 Premiers in a classic Preliminary Final; Hawkins a big loss on paper, but was already out of their side whilst they were contending in the 2024 finals; further improvement from young guns Holmes, Dempsey, Humphrey's, De Koning.

Hawthorn - know what it takes to contend in the modern era; played amazing and sustainable football from round 5 of 2024; bolstered by Barass and Battle (and return of Lewis); significant upside from young guns Watson, Dear, Day, etc.

Whilst one or two of these sides may have a down year in 2025 (as is the trend in modern football), there's no way Carlton will be contending ahead of most of them.

 

[Bale Dup]

Let's have a look at the premiership credentials of the clubs I think can be contenders:

Brisbane - reigning premiers; return of Coleman, Doedee, Gardiner, McCarthy from knees; injection of LAshcroft and improvement from young guns WAshcroft, Loehmann, Fletcher, etc.; have been regular contenders for past handful of seasons;

GWS - Have contended for the premiership the past two seasons and fallen agonisingly short in their past 3 finals against the 2024 Premiers and Runners-Up and the 2023 Premiers; Well balanced and deep squad with plenty of experience across the park; Fell short of qualifying for a 2024 Prelim Final against Port (and therefore likely Grand Final) courtesy of one of the best individual finals ever played by an individual (Heeney).

Sydney - Reigning minor Premiers and runners-up in 2 of the past 3 seasons; How is a midfield of Heeney, Warner, Gulden, Rowbottom and Mills going to be any worse in 2025 than they were in 2024?; Young key forwards only going to get better.

Collingwood - 2023 Premiers after falling agonisingly short in the 2022 Prelim; have bolstered their list with Houston and Perryman; Nick Daicos.

Geelong - 2022 Premiers and fell agonisingly short of the 2024 Premiers in a classic Preliminary Final; Hawkins a big loss on paper, but was already out of their side whilst they were contending in the 2024 finals; further improvement from young guns Holmes, Dempsey, Humphrey's, De Koning.

Hawthorn - know what it takes to contend in the modern era; played amazing and sustainable football from round 5 of 2024; bolstered by Barass and Battle (and return of Lewis); significant upside from young guns Watson, Dear, Day, etc.

Whilst one or two of these sides may have a down year in 2025 (as is the trend in modern football), there's no way Carlton will be contending ahead of most of them.

See anything not quite right with that?

Maybe the fact you have Collingwood there based on 2022/23, after finishing 9th in 2024. All other 5 teams mention 2024 at least. Don't think your new recruits and aged "stars" fill that gap.

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[Fadge]

See anything not quite right with that?

Maybe the fact you have Collingwood there based on 2022/23, after finishing 9th in 2024. All other 5 teams mention 2024 at least. Don't think your new recruits and aged "stars" fill that gap.

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We had a down year, just like 2021.

Plenty to like from the way we finished 2024 after a slow start. Will update.

 

[Worm4]

See anything not quite right with that?

Maybe the fact you have Collingwood there based on 2022/23, after finishing 9th in 2024. All other 5 teams mention 2024 at least. Don't think your new recruits and aged "stars" fill that gap.

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I like the injection of Levi Ashcroft to help lions in 2025.
Carltons number 4 pick - will not have an impact next few seasons apparently

 

[Bale Dup]

I like the injection of Levi Ashcroft to help lions in 2025.
Carltons number 4 pick - will not have an impact next few seasons apparently

No. If it's Jagga, he's got 300 games and leadership written all over him, but won't have any impact at all in 25.

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[Fadge]

I like the injection of Levi Ashcroft to help lions in 2025.
Carltons number 4 pick - will not have an impact next few seasons apparently

No. If it's Jagga, he's got 300 games and leadership written all over him, but won't have any impact at all in 25.

Did you see the other names I listed as upside for Brisbane?

Coleman
WAshcroft
Doedee
McCarthy
Lohmann
Fletcher

What are the equivalent names you have at Carlton?

Need I remind you of the 0 - 60 differential? Oops sorry, I mean 28 point margin...

 

[Bale Dup]

Did you see the other names I listed as upside for Brisbane?

Coleman
WAshcroft
Doedee
McCarthy
Lohmann
Fletcher

What are the equivalent names you have at Carlton?

Need I remind you of the 0 - 60 differential? Oops sorry, I mean 28 point margin...

I'm not disputing that Brisbane will be contenders next year.

My query is that apparently, according to you, we have no other real talent to be included in our team next year, but other teams do.

That's where the overall issue of your assessments sit with me, is that your assessment of our list is prejudiced and somewhat blinded by your hatred of us imo.

At the end of the day, your assessments of us are wrong imo, and there's no point in me or anyone who supports the blues, listing who we believe might make us better, as you simply do not rate our list, past our "top 6" (or is it 12) players.

We will see soon enough, who is right.

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[Worm4]

Did you see the other names I listed as upside for Brisbane?

Coleman
WAshcroft
Doedee
McCarthy
Lohmann
Fletcher

What are the equivalent names you have at Carlton?

Need I remind you of the 0 - 60 differential? Oops sorry, I mean 28 point margin...

I was focussing on how the injection of ashcroft into the side will mean something. Other players or not

 

[Fadge]

I was focussing on how the injection of ashcroft into the side will mean something. Other players or not

It only means something if there are other players around him, and having an older brother in the team is a pretty handy benefit.

Go ahead and refute with a similar case for Carlton. You might truly believe it, but I don't see it.

 

[Worm4]

It only means something if there are other players around him, and having an older brother in the team is a pretty handy benefit.

Go ahead and refute with a similar case for Carlton. You might truly believe it, but I don't see it.

You don't see it, because of your anti Carlton agenda and your constant negative views . Heaven forbid if they do something positive next season - I'm sure you will come up with an excuse or 2

 

[Chism]

Let's have a look at the premiership credentials of the clubs I think can be contenders:

Brisbane - reigning premiers; return of Coleman, Doedee, Gardiner, McCarthy from knees; injection of LAshcroft and improvement from young guns WAshcroft, Loehmann, Fletcher, etc.; have been regular contenders for past handful of seasons;

GWS - Have contended for the premiership the past two seasons and fallen agonisingly short in their past 3 finals against the 2024 Premiers and Runners-Up and the 2023 Premiers; Well balanced and deep squad with plenty of experience across the park; Fell short of qualifying for a 2024 Prelim Final against Port (and therefore likely Grand Final) courtesy of one of the best finals ever played by an individual (Heeney).

Sydney - Reigning minor Premiers and runners-up in 2 of the past 3 seasons; How is a midfield of Heeney, Warner, Gulden, Rowbottom and Mills going to be any worse in 2025 than they were in 2024?; Young key forwards only going to get better.

Collingwood - 2023 Premiers after falling agonisingly short in the 2022 Prelim; have bolstered their list with Houston and Perryman; finished 2024 as well as any team as evidenced by their late games against the eventual Grand Finalists; Nick Daicos.

Geelong - 2022 Premiers and fell agonisingly short of the 2024 Premiers in a classic Preliminary Final; Hawkins a big loss on paper, but was already out of their side whilst they were contending in the 2024 finals; further improvement from young guns Holmes, Dempsey, Humphrey's, De Koning.

Hawthorn - know what it takes to contend in the modern era; played amazing and sustainable football from round 5 of 2024; bolstered by Barass and Battle (and return of Lewis); significant upside from young guns Watson, Dear, Day, etc.

Whilst one or two of these sides may have a down year in 2025 (as is the trend in modern football), there's no way Carlton will be contending ahead of most of them.

This time last year it also was No Way Carlton finish above the Pies in 24!

How anyone takes your trolling posts seriously on here has me dumbfounded. To Pies fans you are self appointed legend i suppose.

 

[Chism]

It only means something if there are other players around him, and having an older brother in the team is a pretty handy benefit.

Go ahead and refute with a similar case for Carlton. You might truly believe it, but I don't see it.

Did you see your own rabble not making finals this time last year as well?

 

[Cyclops]

No. If it's Jagga, he's got 300 games and leadership written all over him, but won't have any impact at all in 25.

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Look, the game is less punishing, hence Daicos, Ashcroft (x2 likely), Sheezel all being effective off the bat. You might get a bit out of a kid, you might get a Brownlow finish.

The problem is your game plan is Cripps (brilliant start) and two big blokes who score heavily h&a. In finals they don't.

Your defence improved this year and you finished lower. It's a decent defence (I like to mock it, but Weitering and Saad are great) but not a "Stop Brisbane or Geelong in a final" defence.

You can get better, everyone can. Your coach can improve, an assistant fan come up with a tactical twist, you can have a great run with injuries.

Carlton did have bad injuries. All sides have them. Pies had a bit of an injury rash in 22, 23 and 24. Lots of oldies, some injury prone fellas. 4, 1, 9. It didn't really affect our success as much as tactical adjustments by us and other clubs. You'd say we'll get injuries again, more oldies, some injury prone fellas. Adams is gone but DecGoey should miss 6 as usual.

Carlton should have injuries again too. Doesn't slow down Cripps too much but you've had them before so it's likely you will again.

We've added 2 good and one gun mature recruits. You could say we've covered 40 to 60 senior games worth of injuries (assuming they miss some games injured/suspended too), and improved the mids forwards and backs.

So chances are we both get injuries, our depth allows us a higher finish, we both make finals, where our gameplan works ok and yours works less well.

Maybe not, maybe you win every game. It's possible, but history and reason say we likely finish higher.

Now I finished rubbing that one out, are you ready to sign up as a Pie for 2025?

We're very welcoming.

 

[Fadge]

This time last year it also was No Way Carlton finish above the Pies in 24!

Did you see your own rabble not making finals this time last year as well?

And even with the Pies having a down year in 2024, Blues were nowhere near premiership contention.

I repeat, too many much stronger teams than Carlton standing in your way of flag contention.

 

[Chism]

And even with the Pies having a down year in 2024, Blues were nowhere near premiership contention.

I repeat, too many much stronger teams than Carlton standing in your way of flag contention.

Stop deflecting.

Thread is about who finishes higher not who wins a flag and every year 99% of the comp fail to achieve that feat.

Your failure to argue what the thread is about is so you.

Start a flag thread FFS!

 

[Bale Dup]

Look, the game is less punishing, hence Daicos, Ashcroft (x2 likely), Sheezel all being effective off the bat. You might get a bit out of a kid, you might get a Brownlow finish.

The problem is your game plan is Cripps (brilliant start) and two big blokes who score heavily h&a. In finals they don't.

Your defence improved this year and you finished lower. It's a decent defence (I like to mock it, but Weitering and Saad are great) but not a "Stop Brisbane or Geelong in a final" defence.

You can get better, everyone can. Your coach can improve, an assistant fan come up with a tactical twist, you can have a great run with injuries.

Carlton did have bad injuries. All sides have them. Pies had a bit of an injury rash in 22, 23 and 24. Lots of oldies, some injury prone fellas. 4, 1, 9. It didn't really affect our success as much as tactical adjustments by us and other clubs. You'd say we'll get injuries again, more oldies, some injury prone fellas. Adams is gone but DecGoey should miss 6 as usual.

Carlton should have injuries again too. Doesn't slow down Cripps too much but you've had them before so it's likely you will again.

We've added 2 good and one gun mature recruits. You could say we've covered 40 to 60 senior games worth of injuries (assuming they miss some games injured/suspended too), and improved the mids forwards and backs.

So chances are we both get injuries, our depth allows us a higher finish, we both make finals, where our gameplan works ok and yours works less well.

Maybe not, maybe you win every game. It's possible, but history and reason say we likely finish higher.

Now I finished rubbing that one out, are you ready to sign up as a Pie for 2025?

We're very welcoming.

Hmmm. Almost sensible and maybe even a little accurate to boot but a Collingwood supporter, not a chance.

My brother is a Collingwood supporter. I know what that does to someone's mind.

Anyway, enough of this, time to resume our normal broadcast,

You guys are garbage. You're too old. You're past it. Gone!! Got nothing!!

We are the future!!!!! And that future starts in season 2025.

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[Fadge]

Stop deflecting.

Thread is about who finishes higher not who wins a flag and every year 99% of the comp fail to achieve that feat.

Your failure to argue what the thread is about is so you.

Start a flag thread FFS!

Your initial response was to a post of mine where I explained why Collingwood were amongst a group of teams who are much more likely to contend than Carlton.

A few posts prior to that I listed four different reasons as to why Carlton won't contend.

So where's your posts that are relevant to the thread topic?

 

[Elixuh]

I’m sure you will be glad to know I’m changing my support to the mighty blue baggers after they didn’t bid on Levi. Carn the blue baggers

 

[Do_Beta_Rapport]

Hang on, Carlton moved up the draft to take a Lewis Taylor

28

Lewis Taylor

Age

29

Ht

174cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.6

4star

K

9.5

4star

HB

8.1

5star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.0

4star

CL

0.9

3star

D

9.6

2star

K

6.8

3star

HB

2.8

2star

M

3.6

4star

T

2.2

3star

CL

0.2

2star

D

12.6

4star

K

6.2

3star

HB

6.4

4star

M

2.0

3star

T

2.2

4star

CL

1.2

4star

clone?

 

[Bale Dup]

Hang on, Carlton moved up the draft to take a Lewis Taylor

28

Lewis Taylor

Age

29

Ht

174cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.6

4star

K

9.5

4star

HB

8.1

5star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.0

4star

CL

0.9

3star

D

9.6

2star

K

6.8

3star

HB

2.8

2star

M

3.6

4star

T

2.2

3star

CL

0.2

2star

D

12.6

4star

K

6.2

3star

HB

6.4

4star

M

2.0

3star

T

2.2

4star

CL

1.2

4star

clone?

Really spot on comparison
Well done
I'm sure it won't haunt you. Good luck with it

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