Who will be closer to playing in finals end of 2016 season? Lions, StK or Melbourne

[TwentyNine]

I hope so. Just don't see it at the moment. Salem was showing glimpses of it last pre-season with good ball use. Vineys best attribute is his grit and determination. Think he's pretty vanilla outside of that.

Don't get me wrong I think they'll both have long careers and will be solid players. Just don't see the star factor.

*I should clarify by saying stars I mean players capable of multiple All Australian gigs.

Ah, you are probably putting the "star" bench a little higher than most. I'd say both will be top ten maybe top five players at a club that is likely to have at least some measure of success which fits "star" for me.

 

[Hamingja]

Saints did better than expected last year. Melbourne about par. Brisbane did worse than expected.

1) Brisbane with a dead cat bounce in 2016.
2) Melbourne to remain stuck in the mire.
3) Saints to step back to go forward medium term.

 

[blitzer]

I'm thinking St.Kilda will be the closest. They seem to be building a pretty solid list. They don't appear to have any real weak areas on the ground and i'm not too concerned by the small scattering of older players amongst a very young list. Think they will really build on last year and go close to finals. I think they will finish about 10th and i'd put their range at about 8 - 14.

I've watched Melbourne fail too many times over the last decade to back them to make finals. I'll just accept i'm wrong when it happens rather than bank on it. They'll probably be somewhere around 14th with a chance to finish between about 10 - 16.

Brisbane is an interesting case. Terrible forward line with a midfield that's very good on paper but has never quite come together. Thin ruck stocks after losing Leuenberger could leave them exposed as well. They could surprise but i wouldn't bank on them. I'd say somewhere between 12-18 but a greater chance of falling in the 16-18 range.

 

[Tulip]

Salem is the question mark. Didn't really impress great deal in his second year. Is a skilful mid-forward so hopefully can step up next season

Did his hamstring in round 6, and then did it again in the VFL and was out for three months. I don't see how you can claim that he didn't impress when it seems like all you've seen of the guy is that goal against the Bombers. Salem is a half back flanker. Elite disposal, tough, quick - he's going to be brilliant. I'm more confident in him continuing to step up than any of them aside from Hoges.

 

[Trav 20]

Disagree with Viney and Salem becoming stars. Both will
probably be average/above average players who have the odd day out. As a comparison from my own side I'd have Wallis and Johannisen on the same catergory as those two.

Mate I just did it from birth dates in 92 and over. I'm not that invested in this thread to pick out who was born after April.

Just seems like you rate your players higher than I do. That's fair enough. I'm sure we'd disagree about Bulldogs players.

But even by your own parameters you have Melbourne's top shelf ahead of the Saints. You had Hogan, Tyson, Brayshaw and Petracca up against McCartin and Billings. It's your own logic you're arguing against.

Forget April 1 if you like and include Bruce. Add McDonald, Gawn and vandenBerg from ours. Anyway you slice it or dice it we have a better solid core of youth than the Saints and I dare any Saints supporter to mount an opposing case. It's the Saints older players that have been the difference. Not for long.

You say you're not "that invested". No problem. Just don't make statements with no substance in the first place.

 

[Trav 20]

Did his hamstring in round 6, and then did it again in the VFL and was out for three months. I don't see how you can claim that he didn't impress when it seems like all you've seen of the guy is that goal against the Bombers. Salem is a half back flanker. Elite disposal, tough, quick - he's going to be brilliant. I'm more confident in him continuing to step up than any of them aside from Hoges.

Clearly some of these clowns haven't seen him play in 2015.

He was a revelation across half back for the first 6 games before getting injured. Him missing was one of the reasons we dropped away.

A measure of how well he was playing is his 15th placing in our B&F from 9 completed games. Watts played 20 and Lumumba 19, yet Salem finished ahead of them playing less than half their games. He was a second year player. Toumpas completed the same amount of games as Salem and finished 28th.

Salem was a top 10 pick for a reason and I most certainly see the potential for multiple All Australians.

 

[gillo94]

Did his hamstring in round 6, and then did it again in the VFL and was out for three months. I don't see how you can claim that he didn't impress when it seems like all you've seen of the guy is that goal against the Bombers. Salem is a half back flanker. Elite disposal, tough, quick - he's going to be brilliant. I'm more confident in him continuing to step up than any of them aside from Hoges.

His disposal efficiency with speed is what makes him standout IMO

 

[Dazb86]

But even by your own parameters you have Melbourne's top shelf ahead of the Saints. You had Hogan, Tyson, Brayshaw and Petracca up against McCartin and Billings. It's your own logic you're arguing against.

Forget April 1 if you like and include Bruce. Add McDonald, Gawn and vandenBerg from ours. Anyway you slice it or dice it we have a better solid core of youth than the Saints and I dare any Saints supporter to mount an opposing case. It's the Saints older players that have been the difference. Not for long.

You say you're not "that invested". No problem. Just don't make statements with no substance in the first place.

...I said that from the beginning that you guys probably have a few more top enders but I'd prefer the spread at the Saints. It's o.k to disagree.

 

[cartel]

...I said that from the beginning that you guys probably have a few more top enders but I'd prefer the spread at the Saints. It's o.k to disagree.

There are no shades of grey or differences in opinion in Trav's mind...You are wrong and he is right.

 

[RedLegs#5]

I think melbourne could make finals next year. There are a few ifs but in hogan, gawn and McDonald they have three big guys who are trending up and potentially could take off completely. All three are the right age for that jump and when a sides' talls start to mature that is when you shoot up the ladder.

Vineys second half if '15 seems to have gone unnoticed but is starting to deliver the uncompromising brand that was promised when drafted. He is very Sewell like and will change close games with his physicality and will lift others.

I dunno just have this feeling about them, strangely I feel that it is actually roos that may hold them back initially, the dees will be better off when he's gone

Spot on. However, it didn't go unnoticed by Melbourne supporters or by the club. Nearly won the B+F for a reason. He's vital to our chances of rising up the ladder.

Also, anyone doubting Salem's potential hasn't seen him play enough. The guy has it all.

 

[Demonated]

Disagree with Viney and Salem becoming stars. Both will
probably be average/above average players who have the odd day out. As a comparison from my own side I'd have Wallis and Johannisen on the same catergory as those two.

Mate I just did it from birth dates in 92 and over. I'm not that invested in this thread to pick out who was born after April.

Just seems like you rate your players higher than I do. That's fair enough. I'm sure we'd disagree about Bulldogs players.

Wallis is a fair enough comparison to Viney, but all Melbourne supporters would be bitterly dissapointed if Salem doesn't become better than JJ (who I do rate). JJ does have more pace, but Salem is almost 3 years younger with 2 years less experience. He is the player other than Hogan that we are putting the most faith in with our future. I can understand that he isn't rated too highly by most due to injuries and lack of games so far but he certainly does have star quality. He is a decent athlete but has great skills and is very tough which one wouldn't assume looking at him. I expect him to break out and contribute at a high quality earlier than Brayshaw, Petracca, etc.

As for the poll it's a tough one. If Reiwoldt has an injury free season and can be used effectively as a key forward/marking wingman- the saints are ahead. They have good key forwards with Roo and Bruce, with Lonie and the dangerous Billings at their feet. Billings is another who has some serious star quality- but I'd keep him in the forward line mostly, with maybe 5 minutes a quarter in the midfield. Carlisle helps their key backs and Roberton, etc are very serviceable. Their midfield maybe lacks xfactor other than Steven but they are disciplined and tough and Steven, Armo and Dunstan is a good start.

I'd have Melbourne next with expected growth out of some younger players. Very unlikely any players drop off significantly due to age with Vince the only possibility. Our talls at all posts already look good and would be expected to improve in Hogan, McDonald and Gawn. We still lack a decent gameplan and kicking skills at times and as some have already mentioned, it's possible we may have to wait for Roos to depart to see more rapid improvement.

Brisbane have the best midfield but have some massive holes in their list. They will be able to build a backline around Harris Andrews I think, really like the look of him. Their forwardline is just awful though, no point listing young key forward prospects that may make it, as it stands coming into this season, they don't have an AFL standard key forward. They have options though so could very well fix that up, especially with the recruitment of Shache. They will be better though with improved luck with injuries. Even with Beams and Rockliff injured at times last year, I think it was the absence of Hanley that hurt the most. He is such an attacking weapon and along with Zorko creates their drive and skill. They could actually be the best of the three if things fall their way next year.

 

[#gosaintas]

I really rate the list Melb are putting together and agree with some that their youth is better than ours. I think we'll finish ahead of them though due to the two Etihad games against them and an easier draw. Brisb are crap.

 

[Bushy70]

Leigh Marthews once said that you need 3 things to be successful.
1. On field talent.
2. United and strong off-field and admin team
3. And finally a good coach!

I would say that Melbourne definately have the running on the first point. Their list is pretty exciting. I'm no doubt biased but the Saints win on number 2 hands down at the moment ( thanks Matt Finnis and co). Roos may have the bigger profile ( and pay check) andno dissrespect to Leppa but I'll agin let my bias shine through and say that win on number 3. You look at all 3 of Carlisle, Freeman and Rice naming the Saints as their preffered club as evidence of the effectiveness of Richo & Finnis.

I would be interested in othets views of the importance of the off-field stuff in rating a sides likely success.

 

[M Malice]

Leigh Marthews once said that you need 3 things to be successful.
1. On field talent.
2. United and strong off-field and admin team
3. And finally a good coach!

I would say that Melbourne definately have the running on the first point. Their list is pretty exciting. I'm no doubt biased but the Saints win on number 2 hands down at the moment ( thanks Matt Finnis and co). Roos may have the bigger profile ( and pay check) andno dissrespect to Leppa but I'll agin let my bias shine through and say that win on number 3. You look at all 3 of Carlisle, Freeman and Rice naming the Saints as their preffered club as evidence of the effectiveness of Richo & Finnis.

I would be interested in othets views of the importance of the off-field stuff in rating a sides likely success.

agree. 1. i might be biased but i think brisbanes on field talent is better than most people think. most of us who don't support a particular team don't watch many of their games especially if they are low on the ladder, hence they go by media reports on so called crisis, unrest etc. i think a lot of these reports are just sensationlism. the go home 5 is now history, we have players wanting to come to us, no more leaving than usual list turnover last 2 years.
2. with leigh matthews a strong force off the field admin wise and the appointment of craig lambert we are heading in the right direction.
3. i will hold fire on leppa at the moment. both mark thompson and alistair clarkson had lots of pundits calling for their heads early in their careers, the AFL community in general are far too quick to jump on the sack coach band wagon.

 

[Bushy70]

agree. 1. i might be biased but i think brisbanes on field talent is better than most people think. most of us who don't support a particular team don't watch many of their games especially if they are low on the ladder, hence they go by media reports on so called crisis, unrest etc. i think a lot of these reports are just sensationlism. the go home 5 is now history, we have players wanting to come to us, no more leaving than usual list turnover last 2 years.
2. with leigh matthews a strong force off the field admin wise and the appointment of craig lambert we are heading in the right direction.
3. i will hold fire on leppa at the moment. both mark thompson and alistair clarkson had lots of pundits calling for their heads early in their careers, the AFL community in general are far too quick to jump on the sack coach band wagon.

I forgot that you had Lethal up there... And I must admit that your list isn't that bad so you I'll give you 2 out of 3!

 

[Dazb86]

I think using modern (Hawthorn) tactics would help the Dees turn their form around pretty quickly. Unsure how Goodwin will set up to play though. With McCartney and Roos at the club I think they'll play a contested dour sort of style for a while yet.

 

[Tulip]

I think using modern (Hawthorn) tactics would help the Dees turn their form around pretty quickly. Unsure how Goodwin will set up to play though. With McCartney and Roos at the club I think they'll play a contested dour sort of style for a while yet.

Attack, apparently. Roos is gone after next year unless he decides to stay in a backroom role, but he's probably going to go live in the US with his family. Either way, he's given the gameplan to Goodwin next season so unless things turn to absolute shit you wouldn't expect we'll be too dour.

Should of course remind you that our form was better than the two teams in this thread.

 

[Zgope1]

i absolutely love the brisbane list, genuinely think coaching will be the only thing to hold them back possibly in the next year or two

 

[aussierulesrules]

Should of course remind you that our form was better than the two teams in this thread.

Yeah, that is extremely highly debatable.

You finished ahead of us by half a game (with a win in the final round, prior to which we were ahead on the ladder) and we had the higher percentage of the two teams, despite getting smashed in the last couple of rounds by top 4 teams when we were cooked, which wiped a chunk of our % off (it was over 90% about 2/3 of the way through the season).

You beat some better teams than us during the year, but were a lot less consistent over the course of the season and you seemed to be either winning easily, or getting beaten easily most of the time. You'd pull out a really good game here and there, but then be "rubbish" most of the rest of the time, which is an opinion I've seen stated plenty by those who support Melbourne on here this year.

You won 7 games (one more than us), but had only two losses by under 23 points, while we had 6 wins, a draw, 3 losses by under 10 points and 4 losses by 16 points or less.

I'd say very comfortably that we were in a lot more games, for a lot longer than Melbourne were and often the only reason we didn't have even more close results was our terrible goalkicking conversion, as I said earlier in the thread. We'd either be well on top of the other team for a considerable period of time, or at least very highly competitive with a good team in general play, but would then kick ourselves out of the game by kicking something like 1 goal 6 during that period (which we did numerous times), or 2 goals 8, or on one occasion, 3 goals 13, which meant that the scoreboard didn't reflect the general evenness of the contest.

Even that famous win of ours over you guys at Etihad was a case in point. The scores were level at 3/4 time, but the ball practically lived up our end for the whole last quarter (something like 16 inside 50's to 6 for the quarter), yet because of our terrible conversion, it took us until the last 40 seconds of the quarter to kick our first goal. We had so many quarters like that this year.

I don't think Melbourne were anywhere near as consistently competitive in general play as we were through the course of the year.

 

[Praetorian]

For me I've been very impressed by how well drilled the saints have looked in a lot of their games. Every player seems to know their role in the game plan, it just looks very smooth. I rate Richardson as a very good development coach and I think thats where a significant portion of their improvement has come from, and I expect that will continue.

Brisbane may have good depth in the midfield and a fair bit of talent, but their gameplan looks shite (perhaps a symptom of no real key position depth and heavy injury toll). They need a few changes before they're charging up the ladder.

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

St Kilda's win against a shit-kicked Essendon was far more impressive than Melbourne's wins against Richmond, GWS, Collingwood, and Geelong in Geelong.

We'd either be well on top of the other team for a considerable period of time, or at least very highly competitive with a good team in general play, but would then kick ourselves out of the game by kicking something like 1 goal 6 during that period (which we did numerous times), or 2 goals 8, or on one occasion, 3 goals 13, which meant that the scoreboard didn't reflect the general evenness of the contest.

This is pretty much what happened to us against GWS, Adelaide, and Port.

 

[Murraj1966]

St Kilda's win against a shit-kicked Essendon was far more impressive than Melbourne's wins against Richmond, GWS, Collingwood, and Geelong in Geelong.


This is pretty much what happened to us against GWS, Adelaide, and Port.

What about our two wins against a shit kicked Melbourne?

 

[aussierulesrules]

St Kilda's win against a shit-kicked Essendon was far more impressive than Melbourne's wins against Richmond, GWS, Collingwood, and Geelong in Geelong.

What part of "you beat some better teams than us during the year" did you fail to understand?

As much as no-one likes to give us credit for our win against them, Essendon weren't "shit-kicked" when we demolished them. That was the first real belting they'd received for the year, so it's not like they'd been softened up for us. Just the previous week they had taken it right up to Hawthorn for a half, which is a lot more than most teams are able to say. It was us who softened them up for all those who followed.

Do you want to hear something hilarious though? Have a guess who lost to that "shit-kicked" team the very next week, at their own home ground, after we'd softened them up big-time for them? You guessed it, Melbourne! A 119 point worse result against them than we had just a week earlier.

We then beat you very convincingly (also at the MCG) a couple of weeks after that, so perhaps you ought to give us a bit more credit for some of our wins.

Both our teams also beat Gold Coast in the first two rounds of the year (when they still had Ablett and most of the rest of their best 22, half of which missed most of the rest of the year) yet our win was a lot more convincing (led by over 50 points half way through the game) and it was up at Metricon, whereas your less convincing win the week before was at the MCG.

I also wouldn't go writing home about your win against Richmond as being anything super-special, either, as like the previous year, their form in the first handful of games was far from their best. They lost 4 of those first 6 games and the only wins were against the eventual bottom 2 teams in Carlton and Brisbane. I'd take our 110 point win over Essendon over that one any day. 100+ point wins are extremely rare, especially for bottom 6 teams. They don't just happen by accident.

 

[Sprout]

Leigh Marthews once said that you need 3 things to be successful.
1. On field talent.
2. United and strong off-field and admin team
3. And finally a good coach!

I would say that Melbourne definately have the running on the first point. Their list is pretty exciting. I'm no doubt biased but the Saints win on number 2 hands down at the moment ( thanks Matt Finnis and co). Roos may have the bigger profile ( and pay check) andno dissrespect to Leppa but I'll agin let my bias shine through and say that win on number 3. You look at all 3 of Carlisle, Freeman and Rice naming the Saints as their preffered club as evidence of the effectiveness of Richo & Finnis.

I would be interested in othets views of the importance of the off-field stuff in rating a sides likely success.

Trying to compare point 2 is a bit of a wasted exercise, particularly for smaller clubs like St Kilda and Melbourne. It's silly to say the Saints win "hands down", unless you've investigated the backrooms of each club at length. All I can say is that I wouldn't swap our coaching panel, CEO and recruiting staff for quids. Since the commencement of this rebuild two years ago, they haven't put a foot wrong (although Lumumba is looking questionable). Jackson in his first year in charge achieved a statutory profit of $285k which represented a turnaround of $1.9m from the operating result of 2013. Club revenue grew by $2.3m in that year. Considering the trainwreck he took over, that is remarkable.

Richo is doing a good job no doubt. We'll wait to see just how well Goodwin will do, but he is in the process of forming a strong bond with the players, particularly the core group that is going to propel the club forward.

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

As much as no-one likes to give us credit for our win against them, Essendon weren't "shit-kicked" when we demolished them. That was the first real belting they'd received for the year, so it's not like they'd been softened up for us. Just the previous week they had taken it right up to Hawthorn for a half, which is a lot more than most teams are able to say. It was us who softened them up for all those who followed.

Do you want to hear something hilarious though? Have a guess who lost to that "shit-kicked" team the very next week, at their own home ground, after we'd softened them up big-time for them? You guessed it, Melbourne! A 119 point worse result against them than we had just a week earlier.

You might say softened up, but it could just as easily be said that Essendon played their grand final against us the next week with every player and Hird having their neck on the line. I've never seen a softer win than the St Kilda v Essendon game, the Bombers might as well have not turned up.