Prediction Will we make finals in 2023? AFL responds with "...not on my watch"

[1990crow]

We currently have 4 wins. 17 games remaining.
You would say you would comfortably need 13 wins total to make it.
So we will need to win 9 of our remaining 17.

Pies L
Cats L
Saints W
Dogs W
Lions L
Suns W
Eagles W
Pies L
North W
Bombers L
Giants W
Demons L
Poort W
Suns W
Lions L
Swans. L
Eagles. W

 

[Dangarman]

If Richmond beats Melbourne tomorrow night, we'll sit inside the top 4 at round's end regardless of the Anzac Day result. That's not too shabby.

As I posted in the GBU thread, even if Melbourne win it would only take a modest win to Essendon for us to jump Collingwood on %. A 6-7 goal win to Collingwood would see us ahead of Essendon.

 

[davos44]

Why 20% dogs in Ballarat?

We have beaten them there before


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Because its the Bulldogs in Ballarat, its a miracle we won last year.

 

[Rotayjay]

The Bulldogs aren't that good, but neither are Hawthorn. We'll have to be at our best to beat them at Ballarat, but we don't have the same hoodoo that we had in Tassie. It's winnable. All of those tough home games like Collingwood, Brisbane and St Kilda are very winnable. Geelong at Geelong is not winnable - forget it, just be competitive.

 

[TubbsFarquhar]

Collingwood are just one of those teams that always find a way to beat us, even when it's close. I'll reluctantly put down a loss for our next two (Geelong at KP will be the standard 6-7 goal loss). The Lions are flaky away from the Gabba so that one is very winnable for us.

 

[StonesThrow]

We currently have 4 wins. 17 games remaining.
You would say you would comfortably need 13 wins total to make it.
So we will need to win 9 of our remaining 17.

Pies L
Cats L
Saints W
Dogs W
Lions L
Suns W
Eagles W
Pies L
North W
Bombers L
Giants W
Demons L
Poort W
Suns W
Lions L
Swans. L
Eagles. W

That's called back solving

 

[1990crow]

That's called back solving

I think it is also a reasonable assessment.
Still possible to win and lose any of these.
Could possibly win as many as 12, or drop some we should win and only get 6 or 7.

 

[Ciao Giacomo]

Prior to the start of the season I thought we would finish between 9th and 12th. The AFL “experts” and the bookies had us finishing around 14th to 16th.

After losing the first two games I thought we would finish between 9th and 12th.

Now that we have won 4 in a row I expect we will finish …………between 9th and 12th .

 

[Golumless]

With our results so far, I see us as being around the 10th mark. That will change if we win a couple of the next 5.

That'd put us odds on, still I only think we need one. That draw opens up a fair bit, but then again, that's still coming off as an easy kill.

Still, two wins+ here probably gives a bit of confidence our upside isn't just a competitive elimination final loss this year.

 

[StonesThrow]

I think it is also a reasonable assessment.
Still possible to win and lose any of these.
Could possibly win as many as 12, or drop some we should win and only get 6 or 7.

Is pretty hard to tip. How many did you get right so far tipping before the season had started?

 

[1990crow]

Is pretty hard to tip. How many did you get right so far tipping before the season had started?

I would have said 3-3. Showdown win was a nice surprise.

 

[StonesThrow]

I would have said 3-3. Showdown win was a nice surprise.

This is with hindsight still. I doubt any of us would have predicted our wins and losses so far and if so it would have been luck.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Prior to the start of the season I thought we would finish between 9th and 12th. The AFL “experts” and the bookies had us finishing around 14th to 16th.

After losing the first two games I thought we would finish between 9th and 12th.

Now that we have won 4 in a row I expect we will finish …………between 9th and 12th .

I have been saying the same.

Think we will just miss finals this year, but next year our young group make the finals charge.

Have been saying for a couple of years that 2024 we should be playing finals given our list profile.

 

[70lethal]

History says at least 5 teams in the 8 stay after round 6 and often 6 teams.

Hawthorn, WCE, NM, Richmond, Suns close enough to done and dusted
Fremantle, GWS almost done and dusted being almost 2 games out and poor percentage and have issues up forward.

Sydney and WB are the two sides outside the 8 that pose the most risk and become 8 point games for us. Win those 2 and it goes a long way to playing finals.
Carlton greatest liability is Voss and can see them missing again
Essendon and St Kilda nothing would surprise where they finish. Definitely not convinced about Essendon.
We are in this vulnerable group of 5 teams playing for 3 spots imo and any of these teams could fall in a heap and not even get close

Collingwood, Port and Brisbane probably make it
Geelong and Melb make the 8

Fitness and a dream run with injuries maybe the difference.

 

[PCORF]

Started the season 4-2, but we do have some pretty tough games coming up against the Pies (who we rarely beat at home), Cats (in Geelong) and Saints. Finals a 50/50 chance and I think we will win 10 games at the worst. So 10-13 wins, something like that.

 

[Dangarman]

4-3 with 16 games to go. Need to find 9 more wins. Write off Geelong, Brisbane at the Gabba, Melbourne and Collingwood at the G.

If we win on Saturday there'll be a crow shaped lid landing on the moon.

Bookies actually have us as favourites to beat StK at home next weekend.

Playing WC and GC twice and North are 5 must win games if we want to play finals. That's 5 of the 9 needed.

Need to find 4 wins out of these 7 games, which I can see happening. All winnable on a good day and the first 4 the most likely.
StK (home)
Dogs (Mars)
Essendon (Away)
GWS (home)
Showdown
Bris (home)
Syd (home)

I'm pretty sure we're not a bottom 6 side. I also think there will be at least six sides better than us (but I'm not sure which six at this point) leaving us somewhere in the middle third. Two of those six sides play finals, so realistically we're about a 2 in 6 chance of making finals. Historically, the sides finishing 7 and 8 are only making up the numbers.

 

[MsTopG]

We play wce twice, north once, gws once and gold coast twice so that's 5-6 wins pretty much guaranteed. Add that to our 4 and that's 9-10wins. That's means we most likely need another 3-4wins with a half decent percentage for finals.
We play:
Geelong away, Loss
Saints@home, Most likely a win.
Bulldogs away, 50/50, let's make that a loss
Lions@home. Lions are hopeless away. Win.
Suns away in Darwin. 50/50 Win
West Coast home. Win.
Collingwood away. Loss
North @home Win
Essendon away, Loss
Giants@home, Win
Melb away. Loss
Powaa@home, Win
Suns@home, Win
Lions away, Loss
Swans@home, Win
Eagles away, Win

That puts us on 14 wins and most likely 7th or 8th. That means we need to win 8 home games from 8(stK, lions, wce, north, giants, powaa, gc, swans) and 2 wins away against gold coast and wce from 8 matches. Alternatively if we dropped one of those home games we need to pick up another away win which the most likely games we could do that would be bulldogs or essendon away. The tough home matches we need to win are against lions, powaa imo.

 

[Dirty Bird]

I've been doing a ladder predictor weekly

Pre-season - Adelaide 10th at 13-10
After Rd 1 - Adelaide 12th at 11-12
After Rd 2 - Adelaide 12th at 9-14
After Rd 3 - Adelaide 7th at 12-11 Defeat St Kilda in Elimination, Lose to Sydney in Semi
After Rd 4 - Adelaide 5th at 15-8 Defeat Port Adelaide in Elimination, Defeat Carlton in Semi, Lose to Melbourne in Prelim
After Rd 5 - Adelaide 3rd at 17-6 Lose to Melbourne in Qualifying, Defeat Sydney in Semi, Lose to Collingwood in Prelim

Updating it again

Pre-season - Adelaide 10th at 13-10
After Rd 1 - Adelaide 12th at 11-12
After Rd 2 - Adelaide 12th at 9-14
After Rd 3 - Adelaide 7th at 12-11 Defeat St Kilda in Elimination, Lose to Sydney in Semi
After Rd 4 - Adelaide 5th at 15-8 Defeat Port Adelaide in Elimination, Defeat Carlton in Semi, Lose to Melbourne in Prelim
After Rd 5 - Adelaide 3rd at 17-6 Lose to Melbourne in Qualifying, Defeat Sydney in Semi, Lose to Collingwood in Prelim
After Rd 6 - Adelaide 6th at 14-9 Defeat Essendon in Elimination, Lose to Geelong in Semi
After Rd 7 - Adelaide 7th at 14-9 Defeat Essendon in Elimination, Lose to Geelong in Semi

 

[TheRankineFile]

I reckon we will finish 8th. Port 5th. Oh that would be tasty. Bet we finally get that Friday night Showdown .. nah, Sunday twilight.

 

[George Kramer]

Just done a ladder predictor, I believe it will come down to the showdown and percentage. Win and we finish 8, Port 9th.

 

[Samcro24]

Just done a ladder predictor, I believe it will come down to the showdown and percentage. Win and we finish 8, Port 9th.

What a scenario

 

[cleanhands]

 

[George Kramer]

What a scenario

Yeah, imagine that showdown if it’s heading that way. Glad it’s our showdown

 

[MsTopG]

History says at least 5 teams in the 8 stay after round 6 and often 6 teams.

Hawthorn, WCE, NM, Richmond, Suns close enough to done and dusted
Fremantle, GWS almost done and dusted being almost 2 games out and poor percentage and have issues up forward.

Sydney and WB are the two sides outside the 8 that pose the most risk and become 8 point games for us. Win those 2 and it goes a long way to playing finals.
Carlton greatest liability is Voss and can see them missing again
Essendon and St Kilda nothing would surprise where they finish. Definitely not convinced about Essendon.
We are in this vulnerable group of 5 teams playing for 3 spots imo and any of these teams could fall in a heap and not even get close

Collingwood, Port and Brisbane probably make it
Geelong and Melb make the 8

Fitness and a dream run with injuries maybe the difference.

Geelong, Melb, Brisbane, Collingwood guarantees for top 4. Powaa have an easy draw from here on out and have had an easy draw already so they will make the 8 imo. Carlton, Western Bulldogs and Saints are the vulnerable ones. I think two teams out of us, Sydney and Essendon should come into the 8. Whether we come in depends on how we go at home for the rest of the year and winning around 3 games away. Will most likely come down to injuries for us as we don't have great depth in some important positions.

 

[cleanhands]

I’m going to call it………………… this week is our season defining game