Your Club in 2012, according to BigFooty

[Iva Bigun]

Great work but can't possibly be right, Richmond aren't ninth

 

[TheRedPill]

All 10 North supporters are tipping themselves for finals:*

* Edit: not a low-attendance joke. I mean all 10 North supporters who submitted ladders to that thread.

Intentional or not, it was definitely funny.

I also the Jennifer Government reference...

 

[hufus]

Actually, there is a severe lack of St. Kilda & Bulldog contributions to that thread. I'm hoping some more show up, because at the moment a few clubs are represented by very few people.

The # of ladders by supporter club at the time I did it was:

• Adelaide: 5
• Brisbane: 5
• Carlton: 14
• Collingwood: 11
• Essendon: 20
• Fremantle: 5
• Geelong: 14
• Gold Coast: 3
• Greater Western Sydney: 2
• Hawthorn: 9
• Melbourne: 5
• North Melbourne: 10
• Port Adelaide: 3
• Richmond: 10
• St. Kilda: 2
• Sydney: 5
• West Coast: 13
• Western Bulldogs: 1

I would not be too confident about per-club assertions for clubs with only a handful of contributors, i.e. Gold Coast, Port, St. Kilda, Bulldogs.

Upped your data set on the Dogs

 

[smasha]

Great work but can't possibly be right, Richmond aren't ninth

Getting old mate.

 

[BABYBOMBERS2007]

Fantastic thread

 

[Liam Boy]

The two South Australian sides, the two Queensland sides, and GWS are the only sides who don't appear to have a realistic chance at September action next year and now that I've said that, it is almost guaranteed that one of them will make it.

I'd say as far as likelihood to make it, it goes:

1. Brisbane
2. Adelaide
3. Port Adelaide
4. Gold Coast
5. GWS

I rate Brisbane pretty highly and I can see Port having a decent year.

 

[you pick one]

Bugger where the under dogs again.

 

[Slattery_20]

This isn't based on 1 or 2 nutbags, it shows an overall characteristic. It's quite clear that continued and ongoing failure will lead to false hope in footy.

You can say less successful clubs engender less realistic predictions, I go the other way: they're only less successful at fulfulling the predictions that basically every club's fans hold - regardless of how (un)realistic.

False hope is only adjudged in hindsight.

 

[basashi]

I agree with the consensus top 5 but from there is a bit of a mishmash in my book.

So, I wouldn't be so confident in putting Freo at 6th.

More like Fremantle, Sydney, North, Essendon and Saints will be jockeying for positions 6 to 10.

Their final positions will be decided by the bounce of the ball, injuries, a few games in bad weather, flight hours load and several draw related factors, such as ratio of games against the top 5, who gets to play GWS twice, travel parity BETWEEN the Vic clubs and so on.

Not that its worth anything. Unless there is a major change over summer it is hard to see any of them having much finals impact against the top four. The top teams just look so good.

But it is a long way out. Anything can happen.

 

[Swarhily]

Ladder looks about right, but anything can happen.

 

[AllFooty4]

God love em.

No Hawk fan predicted they would be outside the top 2?

Why would we? we came third, there isn't many cases you could make to say we would become worse, but there are a lot to say we'd become better.

 

[SM]

Why would we? we came third, there isn't many cases you could make to say we would become worse, but there are a lot to say we'd become better.

Roughy will be out for most of the year.

 

[lethal03]

Roughy will be out for most of the year.

He was out most of this year, yet we finished 3rd.

 

[Prudster]

Roughy will be out for most of the year.

But we regain two full backs and Shoenmakers gets another preseason/consistent injury free games. Did i mention that several players played in their first final last year? It's pretty easy to find reasons why a team will either fall or rise.

 

[Lunchlady Doris]

But we regain two full backs and Shoenmakers gets another preseason/consistent injury free games. Did i mention that several players played in their first final last year? It's pretty easy to find reasons why a team will either fall or rise.

It's easy to find reasons why, it's harder to actually predict correctly.

Did you guys predict Hawthorn would miss the finals, the season after winning the flag?

 

[silvan14]

Surely Melbourne are a little undersold. Play GWS twice and now they have a big forward (even though he's not the ultimate answer) with a young improving list I'd think they've got to be a massive final 8 chance

 

[TheFourPillars]

Roughy will be out for most of the year.

No He won't

 

[TD05]

No He won't

but will he be any good?

 

[TheFourPillars]

but will he be any good?

time will tell

 

[WALL-e]

Excellent work on this thread mate. Top shelf.

 

[jrock94]

Surely collingwood wont be second. They wont play for buckley like they did malthouse. I think theyll finish about 5th or 6th

 

[telsor]

Surely Melbourne are a little undersold. Play GWS twice and now they have a big forward (even though he's not the ultimate answer) with a young improving list I'd think they've got to be a massive final 8 chance

Most (all?) of the predictions were done before the draw came out.

 

[Haggard H]

I think we all acknowledge the great work Final Siren has done here, and as a way of thanking him we should take donations and pay for a prostitute for the weekend, as obviously he is in desperate need of some female company.

Love your work FS.

 

[Final Siren]

I think we all acknowledge the great work Final Siren has done here, and as a way of thanking him we should take donations and pay for a prostitute for the weekend, as obviously he is in desperate need of some female company.

That would be great! She can help me add in all the new ladders that have been done since my original post.

 

[Pendulum Jury]

Every year, people try to predict the ladder for the following year. Here is the thread for 2012:

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?p=22583572#post22583572

I have run these ladders through a statistical analysis, so now I can bring you...

THE CONSOLIDATED BIGFOOTY 2012 LADDER

Here's what you get if you combine the 137 ladders from that thread into one:

1. Hawthorn
2. Collingwood
3. Geelong
4. Carlton
5. West Coast
6. Fremantle
7. Sydney
8. North Melbourne
9. Essendon
10. Richmond
11. St. Kilda
12. Melbourne
13. Adelaide
14. Brisbane
15. Western Bulldogs
16. Gold Coast
17. Port Adelaide
18. Greater Western Sydney

Surest Bets
These teams exhibit the smallest statistical variation in predictions, which means people agreed most often about where they are likely to finish:

1. Greater Western Sydney at 18th
2. Hawthorn at 1st
3. Carlton at 4th
4. Collingwood at 2nd
5. Port Adelaide at 17th
6. Gold Coast at 16th
7. Geelong at 3rd

Unknown Quantities
These teams exhibit large statistical variations in their predicted finishing position, meaning there is a lot of disagreement about how they will go in 2012:

1. St. Kilda (average guess: 8th - 14th)
2. Fremantle (4th - 9th)
3. Essendon (6th - 11th)
4. Brisbane (11th - 16th)
5. Melbourne (9th - 13th)
6. Adelaide (10th - 15th)
7. Richmond (8th - 12th)

Do Supporters Over-Rate Their Own Team?
Yes! Supporters of all 18 teams on average predict their own team to finish higher than the rest of BigFooty does.

Who Are The Most Optimistic/Delusional?
We don't actually know yet where teams will finish on the ladder in 2012, so a team's supporters may be right when they predict that their team is better than everyone thinks. But not everyone can be right! So someone must be deluding themselves.

Ranked from most disproportionately optimistic supporters to most disproportionately pessimistic (based on number of standard deviations away from the average):

1. Greater Western Sydney
2. St. Kilda
3. Western Bulldogs
4. Port Adelaide
5. Melbourne
6. North Melbourne
7. Fremantle
8. Gold Coast
9. Sydney
10. Richmond
11. Adelaide
12. West Coast
13. Hawthorn
14. Collingwood
15. Essendon
16. Geelong
17. Carlton
18. Brisbane

Note that even Brisbane supporters expect their team to do better than in 2012 than BigFooty does. But Brisbane supporters only expect their team to finish about half a rung higher on average than the rest of BigFooty, which is very modest. Port Adelaide supporters expect to finish three rungs higher, Western Bulldogs supporters are tipping 4.5 rungs higher than everybody else, and Greater Western Sydney thinks 12th is about right, whereas everyone else has them locked into 18th.

Coming soon: club by club analysis! Who rates your team higher or lower than usual?

I look at that I reckon Sydney will miss out, Essendon in. Richmond or The Kangaroos for 8th spot and Hawthorn or Geelong for 7th spot. The top 4 will be West Coast, Carlton, Collingwood and Essendon while Freo the wild card to take Eagles spot. Geelong and Hawthorn will shock a few people in 2012 with high expectations, they both still make the 8.The AFL will make a lot of Money next year with 2 WA Clubs in the finals and possibly 4 of the biggest Victorian clubs in the 8 while 3 of them in the 4.