This is the key - drafting is a risky busniess......First round picks are about the only opportunity you get to minimise the risk and should be used accordingly.
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Your Ideal Draft Result
- Thread starter Vader
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This is the key - drafting is a risky busniess......First round picks are about the only opportunity you get to minimise the risk and should be used accordingly.
- Banned
- #28
I strongly disagree. Why should be be picking up a player with pick 14 in the draft if we don't rate him to be a top 14 pick
spot on. what surprises me is that there is even debate on this point.
That in itself would be a suicide type strategy that we have used in the past and been burnt more than once.
West Coast have shown in recent times that the best strategy is to pick the best available with your first pick and after that look at the needs more closely. West Coast, with their exceptional midfield (that has been one of the best for years now) have gone for the likes of Beau Waters and Bunga Hurn with their last 2 first round picks. Now those would have been the players that they were in least need off but they went for them because they were the best available.
ALWAYS go best available with your 1st round pick and then adjust your strategy later on in the draft. If we were to listen this board this time last year we would have taken Cleve Hughes (KPP) instead of Douglas. Not sure if the opinion is the same now
Our KPP stocks are still relatively young and of good quality. Hentschel, prior to his injury was really becoming the sort of player we hoped he would. Rutten was AA and Bock is a very good versatile tall. Those 3 blokes have come from PSD and Rookie List respectively.
Unless you are picking up right at the top where you can pick the cream of the crop, the KPP taken mid 1st round and early 2nd are generally a crap shoot. Like many talls, you have a much better strike rate early or late in the draft. Generally the 15-30ish range of draft picks have netted crap KPPs.
Pick 14: Best Available
The rest we should be flexible and adjust accordingly. As long as we end up with the mix of 3 KPP/2 other or 4KPP/1 other, I will be happy.
I think the most likely mix is 3 KPPs, 1 midfielder and 1 utility type.
yup. thing is, we might need KPP - it's not like the ones we draft will be any good for another 3 or 4 years anyway. draft the best player, and all sorts of things can fall into place in the coming years.
- Banned
- #29
erm. that's a little embarassing to read.
- Banned
- #30
Yeah, and three years ago we would have taken Brent Hall.
are you confusing bigfooty fiction with fact
we spoke about brent hall on here, that has no bearing on whether we as a club had any intention of drafting him - seeing as in reality we overlooked him twice.
You can never have too many midfielders. With our midfield aging we should look at taking a few mids as well. Go best available at all times - If you can't split them go home grown/KPP. Look at WCE. They have a bloody strong midfield... Half their list (well not half but alot) can play in the midfield and it gives them felxibility. Just develop them by sticking them in HBF's and HFF's.. Best available at all times except to make sure we have at Least 2 KPP's. Use rookie picks on high upside players, they may have big flaws but we can always teach them. We have a pretty good success rate compared to other clubs.
and this is part of the high risk attached to young KPPs....they take so long to come along .... if at all....
We definately need them.......because when you get a good'un...they can genuinely win games for you....
But best talent needs to be the rule for Round 1 regardless of need......
- Banned
- #33
and this is part of the high risk attached to young KPPs....they take so long to come along .... if at all....
We definately need them.......because when you get a good'un...they can genuinely win games for you....
But best talent needs to be the rule for Round 1 regardless of need......
of course. the thing is KPP are like Ruckman, they are either top of the class or they tend to be diamonds in the rough late in the draft. I'm personally not sure I a KPP at pick 20 is much more likely than a KPP at pick 50. Once they clear the initial few picks, the risk appears to skyrocket.
Besides, if you end up with Richie Douglas, Beau Waters or Bunga Hurn, there's some interesting trade chips to get yourself a little KPP action later on down the line.
This is where we need to get a little better IMO.......cashing in on the development, sweat, and tears of other clubs.
(To a point) let other clubs take the risks on a KPP.....mould them into a player....then offer them Reilly
and Jericho for their trouble.....
Why?
I have given you a piece of evidence that backs up my claim. Riewoldt's 20m sprint time wasnt released to the public. Unfortunatley its alittle hard for me to actually prove these figures because the clubs wont mention any performances that were not in the top10 anyway after they are drafted. Esp Riewoldts time which is pretty crappy.
As I have said before, you can think what you like about me, I dont care.
Gee, I'd rather have Reiwoldt than Westhoff. Personally having seen him play, I don't subscribe to the tall HFF theory at all. 193 cm tall and takes a very strong contested mark, which is what we are looking for. A bit of an untidy kicking action that needs some work, but can have match-winning bursts.
I'd be delighted if we manged to draft the 4 players Gets nominated (we won't because they won't all slide that much) and then top up with Patful in the PSD.
Won't happen though.
- Banned
- #37
that you even responded in such a way. "no really, I am..." it's not really very dignified. for all I know, you might be all that and more, but that's hardly the point.
ergo, it can't be verified either.
it's as hard for you to prove, as it is for anyone else to believe.
judging by your responses in this thread, you sure do a lousy job of showing it.
- Banned
- #38
This is where we need to get a little better IMO.......cashing in on the development, sweat, and tears of other clubs.
(To a point) let other clubs take the risks on a KPP.....mould them into a player....then offer them Reilly
and Jericho for their trouble.....
simple risk management:
you have a prospect of certain type, that you feel is about 60% likely to develop into a player of X quality in 3 years time.
whereas another type of player, you feel might have a 40% chance of developing to level X quality in 3 years time.
at that point the 2 players - if successful, are both worth the same, and in an efficient market can be swapped for need between parties.
except you are 50% more likely to get there with a certain type over another.
It's all a numbers game.
My only hope is that Wisbey will release his profile because Colin normally has the 20m sprint times in them. We will see what comes out post-draft, I have a feeling you might be eating your words.
thenextbigthing1999
Debutant
- Sep 28, 2006
- 77
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- AFL Club
- Collingwood
wouldnt you rather a reid that an alllen or ausitin? as he can play either end and is also quick which is wat adelaide love ran a 2.93
crows_4_life
All Australian
if avalilable Jack Riewoldt and Westhoff and 2 guys who i've said many times are worth a punt with are Nick Gill and Aaron Davey
crows_4_life
All Australian
lol whoops that was a typo
The Crows Truth
Club Legend
can you name a few recent examples of consistently quality KPP acquired through trading - that arent basket cases?
I think you may struggle
Mal Michaelcan you name a few recent examples of consistently quality KPP acquired through trading - that arent basket cases?
Anthony Rocca
Luke McPharlin
Trent Croad
Nathan Thompson
The Wakelin Twins
Gherig
Hamill
Barry Hall
Those are a few off the top of my head in the last 5-6 years. Some AA there, Coleman medalists etc....
The Crows Truth
Club Legend
Stiffy , lets be honest its VERY VERY hard to trade for quality KPP that ARENT headcases - especially without having to trade a very top draft pick (Croad) that the Crows have never had (or the 'power' of threatening the PSD as per Mc Pharlin or Hamill/Gehrig). I think your list supports my theory
