Preview Changes v Geelong round 17

[Headless]

Squiggle AFL Ladder Predictor

Have a crack at the ladder predictor and tell me how you go.

TopKent says we'll make top 4. If we beat Geelong we're a chance, otherwise, it's 6-8th. It's not a troll, it's analysing the fixture.

I just had a look at this, and there are like a million 50/50 games. I had us finishing second on percentage for what it's worth (16 wins), but for a heap of games I was almost just picking a random team of the two.

Geelong
Melbourne
Brisbane
Fremantle
Richmond
Sydney
Collingwood
Carlton
-
St Kilda (miss on percentage)
Gold Coast
Western Bulldogs
Port Adelaide
Hawthorn
GWS
Adelaide
Essendon
West Coast
North Melbourne

But probably way, way off - it's so hard to say just based on the ladder predictor.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

I've been looking for the odds somewhere but I can't find it anywhere. I'm happy to if you can link me. and I will screenshot it back. I'm happy to lose money if it means we make top 4.

Join Australia's Favourite Online Betting Website | Sportsbet

Bet on horse racing, AFL, rugby and other events with Sportsbet. Join Australia's Favourite Online Betting and Entertainment Website.

www.sportsbet.com.au

 

[Lampers]

If you want to have a crack at Weid for failing to grab an opportunity as a forward over 7 years that's absolutely fair enough, we're all in that boat.

Think it's a bit nonsensical to say "all he needed to do was not get slaughtered in the ruck" when he is not a ruckman and it was absolutely inevitable he was going to get slaughtered in the ruck by an experienced ruck he's giving away significant height and craft to. If you'd asked any of our other key position players to play first ruck they also would have got slaughtered.

Weid's failing is that he drops most of the balls he gets two hands to in marking contests. IMO laying into him because he got smashed in the ruck is just kicking someone who is down and out.

I was hoping Weideman could make it hard for O’Brien in the ruck at least, I wasn’t expecting him to break even or even win many taps himself.

Similar to around the ground, at least make it difficult for O’Brien.

Getting in the way of an opponent and putting them off is far easier than being the proactive player that makes something happen.

Weideman didn’t do either well. He got slaughtered. He also gets routinely slaughtered in his prime role as a tall forward at AFL level.

I want him to be up to it, but unfortunately I don’t think he is.

 

[The Dr]

It’s hard enough to tip each week’s games let alone trying to do a ladder predictor for each remaining round and then say “hey we’re gonna miss the top four”.




Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Headless]

It’s hard enough to tip each week’s games let alone trying to do a ladder predictor for each remaining round and then say “hey we’re gonna miss the top four”.




Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

Yep - in the one I did above, changing even a few 50/50 games would change the make-up of the eight. Impossible to get them all right.

 

[Topkent]

It’s hard enough to tip each week’s games let alone trying to do a ladder predictor for each remaining round and then say “hey we’re gonna miss the top four”.




Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

It's actually pretty easy, we lose all our games and all our rivals go unbeaten. Hey presto I'm stupid.

 

[The Dr]

Yep - in the one I did above, changing even a few 50/50 games would change the make-up of the eight. Impossible to get them all right.

Yeah but that is what separates mere mortals like you and I from a true genius like Danster


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Theseventhhamster]

post lacking drunk emojis

I didn't know until I made that post that it was a drunk emoji. I was not meaning to imply that old mate has been drinking and that's why his posts are so mind-numbingly ****ing stupid.

Anyway I've chucked the clown on ignore, now if everyone does the same maybe he'll revert to dueling with fellow spanners like falcon/Taylor/la dispute on other boards.

 

[Jamurp]

We’ll make top 4, but damn those odds of $7 to miss are mighty juicy!

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

We’ll make top 4, but damn those odds of $7 to miss are mighty juicy!

Stop fence sitting and let the veil of negativity take over your wallet.

 

[schmuttt]

Weid was bad against Adelaide and I reckon he’s just not good enough but playing ruck isn’t his forte. He’s contracted for next year purely because last year no one was interested in him so we kept him as insurance.

 

[danster168]

Join Australia's Favourite Online Betting Website | Sportsbet

Bet on horse racing, AFL, rugby and other events with Sportsbet. Join Australia's Favourite Online Betting and Entertainment Website.

www.sportsbet.com.au

ok done.

i hope i'm wrong but $7 to me is value.

bet responsibly kids

 

[Dancing Potato]

Meh, trying the play the ladder predictor is pointless. People always go full pessimistic on our chances in 50/50 games, but then expect the other top 8 teams to win most of their 50/50 games. There are always upsets.

Who knows what injuries, suspensions and general, inexplicable form slumps are yet to happen too.

Tying yourself in knots over all the possible permutations is a fruitless exercise.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

ok done.

i hope i'm wrong but $7 to me is value.

bet responsibly kids

Hey, impressed, you didnt go pussy and bet $1 or something, good man, go down with the ship holding a pineapple..

 

[Bluelegs]

Squiggle AFL Ladder Predictor

Have a crack at the ladder predictor and tell me how you go.

TopKent says we'll make top 4. If we beat Geelong we're a chance, otherwise, it's 6-8th. It's not a troll, it's analysing the fixture.

Okay had a crack and...

What an end to the season we're going to have!



We go on to win every game by ten goals, Collingwood, Carlton, and Geelong all fall apart and miss finals, Richmond finish 9th, and Gold Coast come from the clouds to be our biggest challengers! Don't worry, we still win the flag!

 

[danster168]

I just had a look at this, and there are like a million 50/50 games. I had us finishing second on percentage for what it's worth (16 wins), but for a heap of games I was almost just picking a random team of the two.

Geelong
Melbourne
Brisbane
Fremantle
Richmond
Sydney
Collingwood
Carlton
-
St Kilda (miss on percentage)
Gold Coast
Western Bulldogs
Port Adelaide
Hawthorn
GWS
Adelaide
Essendon
West Coast
North Melbourne

But probably way, way off - it's so hard to say just based on the ladder predictor.

Thanks for giving it a go. I also have Geelong 1st, Richmond 5th & Carlton 8th. The main difference is that I have Collingwood as 4th.

 

[danster168]

Hey, impressed, you didnt go pussy and bet $1 or something, good man, go down with the ship holding a pineapple..

haha, it's a win win. Never for 1 second will I be thinking about my bet. But if I am correct, it will be a consolation prize if we miss out on top 4.

 

[LarryDavidNeitz]

Meh, trying the play the ladder predictor is pointless. People always go full pessimistic on our chances in 50/50 games, but then expect the other top 8 teams to win most of their 50/50 games. There are always upsets.

Who knows what injuries, suspensions and general, inexplicable form slumps are yet to happen too.

Tying yourself in knots over all the possible permutations is a fruitless exercise.

I wouldn't be shocked at all if we went 7-0 or 2-5 last seven games. This is the AFL, teams can go like a busted arse for 3 weeks and then spank 3 good teams immediately after that. Most weeks at least one team inexplicably shows up to the game with a poor effort and attitude and nobody can predict it or explain why.

If people want to make predictions or have a bet then fill your boots, but don't pretend your own guesses take on a scientific quality because you plugged them into a ladder predictor and the internet magically told you what would happen if all your guesses were right.

 

[stEdy]

We were gonna miss top 4 last year after losing to WB, GWS and drawing to Hawks.

But then we didn't

 

[Bluelegs]

We were gonna miss top 4 last year after losing to WB, GWS and drawing to Hawks.

But then we didn't

Oh man, we all turned into a bunch of doomers after the Dogs game, while the Western board were inking their home made premiership tats. Funny how things turned out.

 

[netslave]

I had a go at the predictor and had us finishing 4th, with 4 wins and 3 losses but then realised I can't predict the future and what other teams would win and lose anyway.

 

[Daemon]

ok done.

i hope i'm wrong but $7 to me is value.

bet responsibly kids

I nearly fell over my chair when I read you said you were wrong. Then I reread it. What a silly goose I am, as if that would ever happen.

 

[Daemon]

All this talk of missing top 4. Pfft.

This team was made to win finals. If we make the 8, we can beat anyone from anywhere.

 

[danster168]

All this talk of missing top 4. Pfft.

This team was made to win finals. If we make the 8, we can beat anyone from anywhere.

yes, we can. but with the amount of interstate teams we don't want to be playing freo, brisbane or geelong away to stay in the race.

 

[mrmonkey]

Want to keep our winning streak up against this mob. We were their bunnies for too long.

We were every teams bunnies