Analysis Hawks 2022 Hypothetical trades (read the pinned post)

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Firstly, the "No Kane Cornes" Rule is back




 
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If GWS don't bid on Ashcroft we should trade for 34 from Brisy with 48 and a future 4th.

If Davey gets bid on before 22 we should trade for it with that future 2nd and some points 50,52,65. Maybe get a future 4th back

Try to keep 41 which will come into 38.

Use picks 6, 22, 24, 34, 41
 
I have had my melt. I am now having a few 🥃 plus a lovely cigar and pondering today’s result, in hindsight I am ok with what MM achieved. He could have done a lot better and he could have done a lot worse.

Thats the end of the clean out the fire sale is over. Sam’s is moulding this squad into what he sees as the best way for the next flag. When I think back on the season, how many games did TOM & JOM get us over the line? Not to many which is why they just had to go.

Going to be a bumpy next 3 years and then all of a sudden BANG it all clicks and away we go.
 
Think we're severely underrating Cooper Stephens here....

Had his 2020 season completely wiped away with a severe ankle injury and was also injury affected in 2021. He then debuted this year and managed a further 7 games in a premiership side stacked with midfield talent. This kid oozes talent and will be a ripping pickup for the next 10 years, you can bookmark that.
Mate all jokes aside, the kid is a dead set ripper.
 
Jordan Lewis (4 flags, age 30) went for a pick exchange of 48/66 in and 57/68 out - ie. 3rd shuffle

Luke Hodge (4 flags, age 33) went for effectively pick 75

Sam Mitchell (4 flags, age 33) went for 2 position upgrades, and pick 88

Grant Birchall (4 flags, age 31) went UFA and no compensation

If we waited until Tom/JOM hit 30 to try to move them along, does anyone think we would’ve done better than the above?
 

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Looking at the 2 trades today in isolation I think we are paying more of O’Mearas contract next year then Titch. Not sure why we settled for 41 and 50 rather than getting 27 of the Pies would have made the deal a lot better.

For O’meara to get Meek and a future 2nd Round which will be 26-28 for next years draft they are saying is potential best in a decade is a good deal. This gives us already 3 selections in Top 30 for next year. By all reports Meek was pushing Darcy this year who is a top 5 ruckman in league so we needed the ruck replacement for Big Boy.

For Titch, getting Stephens who was a pick 16 3 years ago learning midfield craft at the Cats for 3 years could be our reverse Kennedy with some luck. If we could have also got pick 27 from pies rather than 41 and 50, I would have said that we done well in both deals.

The important part now is which clubs to target to trade picks 41,48,50 and 52 to get back into the 20s somehow? Thoughts
Bombers
 
At least one thing was cleared. We can't continue with Mackenzie next year. What a looser.
I don't have much faith in him either. He just doesn't convince me when he talks that he is sharp enough.

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I don't think it's as bad as what I thought it was at first glance. I think that like others, I was seduced by the idea of 21 and 27 for them, but that would have also meant paying up something for Meek and Stephens afterwards.

My check-list for the day was:

  • TOM for a top 30 pick... result was Stephens (former first round pick) + Pick 41 + Pick 50
  • JOM for a top 30 pick... result was Dogs Future 2nd (28-30?) AND Meek
  • Meek for a 3rd rounder or not at all... result was came with the Future 2nd for JOM

Having Picks 41, 48, 50 and 52 seems weird for our spot, so I imagine we'll be active on draft night as they become more valuable as bids bring them in.

Here are some deals we could look at trying to do:

34 from Bris for 41 + 52
10 from Carl for 24 + Dogs F2
22 from Ess for 41 + 48 + 50
22 from Ess for Dogs F2 + 52
37 from Melb for 41 + 52
33 from Port for 41 + 48

Or we'd need to look at converting them to future F3s and F4s to stock points for F/S bids next year.

I wouldn't rule out that Dogs F2 being top 25 next year in supposedly a better draft (that we'll need points in) and if that happens and Stephens looks the goods then we can may look back at this being a good result for us overall.
 
Does your view change if we trade those late picks to Brisbane for 21? EDIT - Should be aiming for 22 off Essendon to help them match Davey

Makes the trade look much better.
Also, after bid matching from Brisbane and *, pick 41 is likely to shorten to around pick 35 and pick 50 to pick 44.

So it was effectively Cooper Stephens and picks 35 and pick 44 for Tom Mitchell. I'd have preferred CS and pick 25 but have more players picked at 25 been successful than all the players at both pick 35 and 44? Probably not.
 
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What it is...is us putting our faith in our coaching and development to get this very young group battle hardened in right way for a serious tilt in 2 years. Giving them games, time to develop and learn and as a group all from the same page. This is going to take time and this is how we are going to have success (eventually)
 
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