List Mgmt. Contract, Trade & Draftee Discussion - 2022 Off Season Edition

[Keys]

Contract status of all players now fully updated

The Contracts Thread

2024 List Changes : Out: Retired- Gaff Delisted - Jones, Trew(R), Baker(R), Witherden, Burgiel, Culley(R), Rotham, L Edwards Traded - Darling (NM) Barrass (Hawthorn) In: Trade/FA acquisitions - Graham (Richmond) Baker (Richmond) Owies (Carlton) Draft - Allan (Pick 16) Shanahan (Pick 30) Gross...

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[AsterixTheGaul]

Crystal Ball: Our predictions for the 2023 AFL season are in

Premiership, Brownlow, recruit of the year. We make the call

www.afl.com.au

So they are only journo's predictions and usually Vic centric BUT on weight of numbers, I thought it worth looking at what their predictions would deliver end of season with draft picks.

Average finish for us, Port and Suns are 15, 10 and 11.

That would translate to the following picks


I would be keen to keep picks 3, 21 and 26 then trade the balance plus a future R2 for the Suns R1 (say pick 1) and that would be a 400 plus points premium which should be enough. Might need to find another party to give the Suns points for this year but they will likely bank again if they can future picks as another strong academy in 2024..

Eagles take picks 3, 11, 21 and 26 to the draft. We would have only dipped into a future 2nd.

Those 4 would probably get us Curtin (KPF/KPD), Edwards(first ruck), Tholstrup (tough HFF in the mould of Dusty) and Hardman (elite wheel on an outside runner). There will be loads of options in the second round so less hung up on the latter 2.


Add that to our last 2 years and we have the makings of a great base going forward.

 

[RanaNaved]

Not high enough for what?

Would not have won two flags without players of that level.

It takes more than elite A graders to win flags.

That's the point.

Lycett and Vardy weren't A graders either.

To be called high end

 

[Obeanie1]

To be called high end

So who are high end talent?

And realistically how many can any team bring in each year? 1, 2.....3?

 

[briztoon]

Crystal Ball: Our predictions for the 2023 AFL season are in

Premiership, Brownlow, recruit of the year. We make the call

www.afl.com.au

So they are only journo's predictions and usually Vic centric BUT on weight of numbers, I thought it worth looking at what their predictions would deliver end of season with draft picks.

Average finish for us, Port and Suns are 15, 10 and 11.

That would translate to the following picks

View attachment 1628852
I would be keen to keep picks 3, 21 and 26 then trade the balance plus a future R2 for the Suns R1 (say pick 1) and that would be a 400 plus points premium which should be enough. Might need to find another party to give the Suns points for this year but they will likely bank again if they can future picks as another strong academy in 2024..

Eagles take picks 3, 11, 21 and 26 to the draft. We would have only dipped into a future 2nd.

Those 4 would probably get us Curtin (KPF/KPD), Edwards(first ruck), Tholstrup (tough HFF in the mould of Dusty) and Hardman (elite wheel on an outside runner). There will be loads of options in the second round so less hung up on the latter 2.


Add that to our last 2 years and we have the makings of a great base going forward.

View attachment 1628840

The Suns have already loaded up on draft picks.

The only way I see such a trade happening, is if it’s a live draft night trade, which means you have to take those picks to the draft for the Suns, as they won’t have the available list spots themselves.

 

[Frederico_WA]

So who are high end talent?

And realistically how many can any team bring in each year? 1, 2.....3?

Just get role players on the scrapheap and moneyball into the 2024 flag

 

[amazingjoshy]

What's the go there? Tired to avoid Hawks games, my one game a week of watching crap football was dedicated to the Eagles. Is it simply a case of him being played on key forwards when he's not physically ready?

He's going fine. For reference he's played almost as twice as many games as Tom Barrass did in his first 2 seasons

Stick thin key defender who's only entering his 3rd season and managed to play 16/22 games last year on men much bigger than he is.

 

[RanaNaved]

So who are high end talent?

And realistically how many can any team bring in each year? 1, 2.....3?

All I'm saying is, some of those younger players you listed as high end, are not imo.

A few will be quite cheap imo, which is fine. We should be looking for those talented/cheaper guys struggling for game time due to circumstance, and keeping or splitting the really high picks.

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

The Suns have already loaded up on draft picks.

The only way I see such a trade happening, is if it’s a live draft night trade, which means you have to take those picks to the draft for the Suns, as they won’t have the available list spots themselves.

Not sure what you don't see happening?

As it stands, the Suns have 9 points bearing picks in the 2023 draft. I doubt they will have that many spots open. Therefore, something will need to give.



In terms of trading their R1 - I expect Jed Walter to be bid on early meaning they just lose pick 11 if not traded (assuming that is where it lies). Pretty damn certain that there R1 will be for sale. Again, we can always agree to the deal and not execute until the night of the draft.

Suns also have Ethan Read and Jake Rogers who will need points - Ethan has slipped back in power rankings but could well rise back up in 2023. I have less insights into their 2024 academy prospects but believe there is a decent number of prospects from the U16's of 2022. Again, the Suns have been (to their detriment) a club that has consistently banked picks and I doubt they will change. They may well be ready for a massive deal that has us taking their R1, holding picks before the night and shifting points to 2024.

We will have available plenty of list spots so that is a bonus.

 

[WCE_phil]

I think with Ethan Reid if he has a strong year he is still easily the second best ruck option in the draft and a bid will come in at or before pick 20.

The suns also have a packed 2024 draft crop as well. ****ing academies.

They already have lots of picks in this draft so in reality it's only the likely ours and ports seconds and maybe our third that would be useful to them as well as next years second and third. We could potentially Buy their first next year but i would think it would need those picks and we might be able to get a couple of the third rounders back.

 

[briztoon]

Not sure what you don't see happening?

As it stands, the Suns have 9 points bearing picks in the 2023 draft. I doubt they will have that many spots open. Therefore, something will need to give.

View attachment 1628948

In terms of trading their R1 - I expect Jed Walter to be bid on early meaning they just lose pick 11 if not traded (assuming that is where it lies). Pretty damn certain that there R1 will be for sale. Again, we can always agree to the deal and not execute until the night of the draft.

Suns also have Ethan Read and Jake Rogers who will need points - Ethan has slipped back in power rankings but could well rise back up in 2023. I have less insights into their 2024 academy prospects but believe there is a decent number of prospects from the U16's of 2022. Again, the Suns have been (to their detriment) a club that has consistently banked picks and I doubt they will change. They may well be ready for a massive deal that has us taking their R1, holding picks before the night and shifting points to 2024.

We will have available plenty of list spots so that is a bonus.

I think you may have misunderstood my post.

There’s no doubt the Suns will trade their first round pick, but as you pointed out, they already have more picks than probable list spots they can take to the draft.

So, as I mentioned, it would have to be a live trade on draft night, where you are essentially taking extra picks in to the draft, that you have no intention of using.

The sticking point will be the Suns asking price. If they miss finals, they’ll probably as for 3 second round picks, two current and one future pick.

 

[briztoon]

I think with Ethan Reid if he has a strong year he is still easily the second best ruck option in the draft and a bid will come in at or before pick 20.

The suns also have a packed 2024 draft crop as well. ******* academies.

They already have lots of picks in this draft so in reality it's only the likely ours and ports seconds and maybe our third that would be useful to them as well as next years second and third. We could potentially Buy their first next year but i would think it would need those picks and we might be able to get a couple of the third rounders back.

And it looks like they have a quality 2025 crop as well.

They had a 15 year old (turns 16 later in the year) who played in their U18 team against the U18 Lions academy on the weekend.

He tore us apart, playing half forward. Kicked 3 in the third quarter and ended up with 5. Genuinely looked like Harley Reid (I’m sure he’s bigger than Reid as well).

Actually overshadowed Jed Walter as looking like the best AFL prospect out there.

Walter played a traditional full forward role, playing out of the goal square. At 194cm, I don’t know if he’ll be able to play that way at AFL level. Will need to change his game to play like Ed Curnow.

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

I for one welcome our new Gold Coast overlords.

 

[briztoon]

I for one welcome our new Gold Coast overlords.

If there’s one thing they have got right, it’s their academy.

I’m pretty sure that’s where they’re spending that extra cash they get from the AFL.

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

If there’s one thing they have got right, it’s their academy.

I’m pretty sure that’s where they’re spending that extra cash they get from the AFL.

If it's within the rules, and I'm assuming it is, it's the smartest thing to do.

 

[Eastcoasteagle]

If there’s one thing they have got right, it’s their academy.

I’m pretty sure that’s where they’re spending that extra cash they get from the AFL.

Is the NT still part of their academy zone, from memory it was for 3 years but think that has run out?

They got lucky Alex Davies came through that.

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

Is the NT still part of their academy zone, from memory it was for 3 years but think that has run out?

They got lucky Alex Davies came through that.

Pretty sure Davies is from Cairns (or Townsville? somewhere up there anyway) but they got Rosas and Jeffery from NT.

 

[briztoon]

Is the NT still part of their academy zone, from memory it was for 3 years but think that has run out?

They got lucky Alex Davies came through that.

They have Darwin as part of their academy, not the whole of the NT.

Davies is from Cairns, same as Bowes and their academy kid Nancarrow, who’s probably a top 10 pick next year.

 

[JackOutback]

I for one welcome our new Gold Coast overlords.

I've been waiting for our Gold Coast overlords since their initial concessions.

 

[briztoon]

I've been waiting for our Gold Coast overlords since their initial concessions.

If they could find competent administration, they could actually become something.

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

I've been waiting for our Gold Coast overlords since their initial concessions.

What will happen first?

Freo win a premiership
Gold Coast make the finals
Essendon win a final
Geelong finish bottom 4

 

[Rowan18]

What will happen first?

Freo win a premiership
Gold Coast make the finals
Essendon win a final
Geelong finish bottom 4

Geelong bottom 4. Take Hawkins and Dangerfield out and they will drop pretty quick.

 

[DanWCE]

If they could find competent administration, they could actually become something.

Think I read somewhere that another GC or Qld club offered to assist the Suns in their administration, and by all reports said club was considered very well run. The offer was declined and the Suns opted to go it alone, to which we're all aware of the results.

 

[JackOutback]

What will happen first?

Freo win a premiership
Gold Coast make the finals
Essendon win a final
Geelong finish bottom 4

b, c, d, a

 

[Eastcoasteagle]

They have Darwin as part of their academy, not the whole of the NT.

Davies is from Cairns, same as Bowes and their academy kid Nancarrow, who’s probably a top 10 pick next year.

Don't know why I thought he was Darwin, think it was because he was mentioned in articles as a future academy pre selection around when the Darwin academy announcement.

I was probably a bit liberal with my NT comment, I meant Darwin. Bombers have tiwi and Dees Alice etc. But it does look like that 3 years of being able to pre select Darwin academy talent is up.

 

[briztoon]

Don't know why I thought he was Darwin, think it was because he was mentioned in articles as a future academy pre selection around when the Darwin academy announcement.

I was probably a bit liberal with my NT comment, I meant Darwin. Bombers have tiwi and Dees Alice etc. But it does look like that 3 years of being able to pre select Darwin academy talent is up.

Oh, they don’t get to preselect academy kids any more. It wasn’t just the Darwin kids they could preselect, they were able to preselect all their academy kids. That ended last draft.

Which is why they banked so many points for this year.