List Mgmt. Contract, Trade & Draftee Discussion, 2023: Picks 1,20,34,39,53 ,58

[Keys]

Link to contract status of all players

The Contracts Thread

2024 List Changes : Out: Retired- Gaff Delisted - Jones, Trew(R), Baker(R), Witherden, Burgiel, Culley(R), Rotham, L Edwards Traded - Darling (NM) Barrass (Hawthorn) In: Trade/FA acquisitions - Graham (Richmond) Baker (Richmond) Owies (Carlton) Draft - Allan (Pick 16) Shanahan (Pick 30) Gross...

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[Chump Change]

That would be tempting but we’d very likely miss out on all of Reid, McKercher and Curtin so I hope we’d decline it.

I'd need pick 2.

McKercher is a gun and think he'll be an absolute gun at AFL level. I'm not as convinced with Curtin. I think he'll be a gun, but it might be defensive gun. That's never as good as Midfield gun or Forward gun. And then there's Watson - I think he'll be a gun but I wouldn't want to waste a top 5 pick on a small forward.

At pick 4 and 5, you're missing out on Reid and McKercher. So you're looking at 2 of Curtin, Watson, Sanders. I'd prefer Reid or Mckercher over two of them.

 

[bzparkes]

Article on FoxSports saying that the noise around the Barass to Sydney possible trade is getting pretty loud. They have Montagna quoted in there suggesting that the Swans first pick (currently 4) is a fair trade for Barass plus a second rounder.

It is funny how there is more coverage of this potential trade in the Victorian based football media (which normally focusses on Victoria) than in the WA media even though no Victorian clubs are involved.

I'd take that and run.

 

[Happy Mastenator]

It's like another planet on the North board discussing priority picks and concessions.

Crying a river over the Suns concession and many Norths fans are 100% certain they should be getting a 1st round PP at pick 3.

If they don't get one this year noone should ever get one again.

It would be an interesting decision to award a priority pick to the team that didn't come last on the ladder while not awarding one to the wooden spooner.

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

What if the Dee's trade for the Suns 1st.

Pick 4 and 5/6 plus a F 2nd gets it done IMO.

We may send back a F3rd.

It would be close to a trade but not one that I could get excited about it.

How would it get done? Melbourne hold 4 (Freo), 15, 24 (Freo) and 34. Suns hold 6 plus 28, 29 and heaps of R3 and 4 picks.
Picks 15 and 24 are worth 1,897 points while 6 is worth 1,751. Not the premium you would expect from pick 6.

BUT if the Dees are prepared to mop up the late picks of the Suns of 48, 56, 62, 66 and 69 for pick 34, that would assist the Suns greatly in terms of picks and list spots. I am not sure of the Dees list spots and I doubt they will have many spots open. That would leave Melbourne with 5, 15 and 24 and the late picks going into the draft.


Pre draft
Suns and Dees do the first part of the deal

Suns only holding 4 selections of 6, 28, 29 and 44 going into the draft worth 3,443 points.

On draft night, trade 6 for 15 and 24


Suns could then sell off 15, 24 28 and 29 for a very good premium. Suns could also get a promise from Melbourne to not bid on Walter at 1 saving 386 points. Suns end up with 3 first round talents and not lose any points from future draft and probably bank some future picks.

Melbourne then do a deal with Doggies for the Suns late picks for 35. Go to the draft with 1, and 35hold 1 plus 48 and the balance of the Suns late picks. Do a deal with Doggies for 35 for the Hawks who will be needing points to match FS prospects.

As part of the deal, do a deal with Suns for completion on draft night of 38, 55 and 57 for 28 or 29


I do not see much value in a F2 from Melbourne if we have to give back a F3 as they are likely to be only a few spots different. I would make it a F4 back from us.

We take to the draft 4, 6, 19, 28 and 36.The other bits plus NGA are noise at this stage.


Having worked that out - why not just take Harley.

 

[amazingjoshy]

Article on FoxSports saying that the noise around the Barass to Sydney possible trade is getting pretty loud. They have Montagna quoted in there suggesting that the Swans first pick (currently 4) is a fair trade for Barass plus a second rounder.

It is funny how there is more coverage of this potential trade in the Victorian based football media (which normally focusses on Victoria) than in the WA media even though no Victorian clubs are involved.

Our 2nd or Ports 2nd?

 

[Jumpoff Joey]

Norf
Norf holding 2 and a Port's pick around 15 to 18 plus a possible Harry compensation pick at 3. Could it be a straight 2 and 3 for 1 offer

Holding pick 1 means getting what we want, and historically although we been soft c***s I would be asking for this without any thought of a backward step.

Curtin and Mckersher for Reid. Otherwise take Reid and be done with it.

I’d also be asking Sydney for their R1 and R2 for Barrass, giving us Watson.

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

Our 2nd or Ports 2nd?

Surely it would be Port's R2. That would mean we do not pick up any of his salary.

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

Holding pick 1 means getting what we want, and historically although we been soft c***s I would be asking for this without any thought of a backward step.

Curtin and Mckersher for Reid. Otherwise take Reid and be done with it.

I’d also be asking Sydney for their R1 and R2 for Barrass, giving us Watson.

With you on that and we will have options. Nothing like hot competition to get the sales price up.

Barrass for both Sydney's R1 and R2 feels like too much unless we pay a chunk of his $$$.

Now taking 2, 3, 5, 19 and 38 to the draft would get us 3 top end and 1 very good prospect. We then go for another Long at 38 and use points for NGA picks.

In essence it is
Harley Barrass an pick 36

for

McKercher, Curtin, and Watson/or Duursma.

 

[Cornelius Roy]

Norf
Norf holding 2 and a Port's pick around 15 to 18 plus a possible Harry compensation pick at 3. Could it be a straight 2 and 3 for 1 offer? I'd take it but I cannot see it being offered. That would be a Curtin and McKercher or Harley decision. I would probably take 2 and 3 for 1 and Port's R2. Norf might be more interested in a trade back IF they can manipulate the AFL to do a deal on Sanders being protected as an NGA.

I actually think giving heavier than expected priority to North in the form of pick 3 for McKay and NGA access to Sanders on the condition they trade 2 and 3 to West Coast is a pretty decent way for the AFL to fast track the the recovery of two lists that are absolute basket cases.

Realistically North should, from a needs basis, walk away with Curtin and Sanders but North will North and end up with McKercher/Sanders while Eagles walk away with Reid/Curtin.

 

[Deplorable trumpster]

Our 2nd or Ports 2nd?

Didn't specify. Just said something else in the ballpark of a second rounder would have to go back to Sydney to make it fair. If we could get away with trading a second rounder towards the back end of the second round i would take it. I would be a lot less kean if it had to be our second rounder and we were essentially giving up Barass for a 15 pick upgrade.

He also said that if we did get Sydney's first then we should be less likely to trade down and split the Number 1 pick as we will have less riding on it.

 

[Obeanie1]

I'd take that and run.

As long as the 2nd going back is Ports. Not our 19.

Actually make it our 3rd, pick 38.

 

[Jumpoff Joey]

Barrass for both Sydney's R1 and R2 feels like too much unless we pay a chunk of his $$$.

Yup, and a given to ensure we get the deal we want.

If that somehow comes off (Curtin, Mckersher and Watson/Duursma) I think that would significantly help with the rebuild.

 

[FKASC]

Jealous that Freo can identify a spud high draft pick and sell him off to Norf along with another spud

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

So post carnival, the Suns big 3 are all shaping as 1st rounders and some astute draft watchers have Walter at 1 or 2, Ethan Read ranging from 4 to 10 and Jake Rogers ranging at the 10 to 12 area. Based these going at 2, 7 and 10, the Suns will need 4,445 points. Last count was they had 4,191 points so with minimal selling of top end, they have their points well and truly covered. I cannot see them trying to trade up to take a pick before Walter and they also have some decent talent coming through the following year so moving some points forward will probably be in line with their usual practice.

In terms of other prospects,

1. Hawks F/S of Will McCabe is being seen as a late first early second prospect. Hawks likely to draft at 3 and use 31 and 50 for McCabe or sell off for more points. They could be buying the Suns late picks cheap as they are likely to have the list spots to justify.

2. Dggies F/S of Jordan Croft is seen as a late first rounder. It could be tough and go they get to use the the Lions R1 prior to a bid. Therefore I expect them to possibly try and trade up and could be ideal for the Suns pick 6. They have picks 35, 67, 68 and 71 as well.

3. Sydney are usually pretty good at hiding players but Caiden Cleary is rising up the board and may even be an early R2 pick. Swans currently hold 5, 22, 24, 42 and 43. If Cleary rises to early R2, the Swans will be very keen to offload 22 and 24. I am thinking 22, 24, and 42 would go close to buying the Suns pick. 4 and 6 could get them O'Sullivan and Barrass (assuming he wants to go). Tom to play now and for the next 4 years and Connor understudying Tom and ready to play in 2 to 3 years time.

4. GWS best prospect is Harvey Thomas but he is seen as a late R2 or early R3. Apart from the 2 x R1, GWS have 46 and 58 so should have points covered.

5. Lions have picks 30, 49, 54 and 61. No FS or NGA prospects this year but they will be after Ashcroft Mark II in 2024. Any selling this year for picks next year makes sense and they could also look to bundle up their current 1,271 points for a late first rounder.

 

[Wild Kelly]

do we get 1st go at the following Collard and Livingstone seeing as they are aligned to WCE via NGA

Keep up you mad can't!

 

[amazingjoshy]

 

[Keys]

If North ask for, and get, the ability to prelist Sanders as a NGA prospect we should be doing the same for Collard and Livingstone who are nowhere near as highly rated

 

[SumaGodCoach]

Norf prelisting Sanders is just a priority pick under a different name, like calling a new tax a levy. Why do Norf fans insist on walking around with cans of spray paint in their jocks?

 

[bzparkes]

Norf prelisting Sanders is just a priority pick under a different name, like calling a new tax a levy. Why do Norf fans insist on walking around with cans of spray paint in their jocks?

Loser mentality.

 

[ziad]

We are not tjhe lucky club that gets Pick #4 and another for Barrass are we? Thats getting close to the Judd trade.

 

[TerryFilk]

What if the Dee's trade for the Suns 1st.

Pick 4 and 5/6 plus a F 2nd gets it done IMO.

We may send back a F3rd.

I’d hate that, not ending up with Reid or McKercher and honestly Curtin could be gone by 4 as well, which would be a disaster.

Just keep pick 1, trade Barrass and target the Suns first with our 2nds.

 

[bzparkes]

We are not tjhe lucky club that gets Pick #4 and another for Barrass are we? Thats getting close to the Judd trade.

Only if they chuck in McDonald as well.

 

[Off Tap]

I’d hate that, not ending up with Reid or McKercher and honestly Curtin could be gone by 4 as well, which would be a disaster.

Just keep pick 1, trade Barrass and target the Suns first with our 2nds.

Possibly ending up with 1, 4, 6 and 19

 

[CountryLad]

We would have to give up a significant amount more than just TB and a couple of late picks to end up with 1,4,6 & 19. It’s not happening you guys need to take your Eagles sunnies off and stop starring at the sun and hoping for a gift from the heavens.

Pick 4 for Barrass and some salary is overs for a start and the Swans won’t do it unless something reasonable is coming with TB.

And then in what world would the Suns be trading pick 6 for 35, 37,53 & 55. They don’t need junk like that till draft night when they will be looking for significant point upgrades and cashing some of those points into next years draft.

Some guys in here need to start to flip it and say if we had pick 4 & 6 and were thinking of trading it what would you want. Won’t be a couple of late 2nd and 3rd rounders for pick 6 .

 

[Deplorable trumpster]

We would have to give up a significant amount more than just TB and a couple of late picks to end up with 1,4,6 & 19. It’s not happening you guys need to take your Eagles sunnies off and stop starring at the sun and hoping for a gift from the heavens.

Pick 4 for Barrass and some salary is overs for a start and the Swans won’t do it unless something reasonable is coming with TB.

And then in what world would the Suns be trading pick 6 for 35, 37,53 & 55. They don’t need junk like that till draft night when they will be looking for significant point upgrades and cashing some of those points into next years draft.

Some guys in here need to start to flip it and say if we had pick 4 & 6 and were thinking of trading it what would you want. Won’t be a couple of late 2nd and 3rd rounders for pick 6 .

Every board on BF is enormously biased towards their own team, including ours, So as a basic rule of thumb if every poster on here (or nearly every poster) would hapilly take a mooted theoretical deal then that means that it is a very lop sided trade and the other party are paying way overs. It is not until at least 50% of people on here are not all that happy with the proposed deal that we are probably approaching some kind of fair market price.

Not much talk about McDonald at Sydney. I am sure the question has been put to his manager and the Swans by now. One or both of those two parties has probably emphatically shot it down for him to be not being mentioned in the media stories on this trade as a possible trade target.