Oppo Camp Non Geelong football (AFL) discussion 2023, part I

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I got one i did the other day as a joke.
If:
Richmond beat North by 100 points and Power by 101 points,
Geelong beat St Kilda and WBD,
Sydney lose to Adelaide 101 to 74, and lose to Melbourne 43 to 146,
Essendon draw with GWS and lose to Collingwood,
GWS draw with Essendon and lose to Carlton,
Adelaide beat Sydney 101 to 74, and lose to WCE,
WBD lose to WCE then lose to Geelong.

We get this ladder:
1692011115918.png

This sees Richmond scrape into the top 8 by the smallest margin, on a wave of confidence after two 100 point+ wins. The MCG sells out, as Richmond then get knocked out of finals (again) by Carlton.
 
I got one i did the other day as a joke.
If:
Richmond beat North by 100 points and Power by 101 points,
Geelong beat St Kilda and WBD,
Sydney lose to Adelaide 101 to 74, and lose to Melbourne 43 to 146,
Essendon draw with GWS and lose to Collingwood,
GWS draw with Essendon and lose to Carlton,
Adelaide beat Sydney 101 to 74, and lose to WCE,
WBD lose to WCE then lose to Geelong.

We get this ladder:
View attachment 1774279

This sees Richmond scrape into the top 8 by the smallest margin, on a wave of confidence after two 100 point+ wins. The MCG sells out, as Richmond then get knocked out of finals (again) by Carlton.
I’m all for that
 
Yeah it's easy to see where we don't align. I think Melbourne potentially have another 4 losses in them this season. They are not that consistent or strong.
catempire even with all their close scare victories (Collingwood, Adelaide, Brisbane in particular) I reckon they'll hit that 4 loss marker and end up on 15 wins. Which easily could've been 14 wins. It's a shame we weren't good enough in the close ones to apply pressure for that last top 4 spot.

I still think they're a live chance for a straight sets exit.
 
What results do we need to happen to get into the 8... Other than win both games
The only way I can get Geelong to miss is if:

Condition 1: GWS beat Essendon (home) and Carlton (away) OR Essendon beat GWS (away) and Collingwood.

Condition 2: St Kilda beat Brisbane (away).

Condition 3: Sydney beat Adelaide (away) and Melbourne (home).

Each and every one of these conditions has to occur for Geelong to win the final two games and still miss out.

It looks like Adelaide winning next Saturday night means we wouldn't even have to worry about any of the other games outside of getting a home vs away EF.
 

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catempire even with all their close scare victories (Collingwood, Adelaide, Brisbane in particular) I reckon they'll hit that 4 loss marker and end up on 15 wins. Which easily could've been 14 wins. It's a shame we weren't good enough in the close ones to apply pressure for that last top 4 spot.

I still think they're a live chance for a straight sets exit.
Pretty happy with my assessment of them. They’ll make a Prelim at least.
 
Pretty happy with my assessment of them. They’ll make a Prelim at least.
We'll see. I remember you had them 17-6 and a good chance at a home QF mid-July while I thought they'd end up 15-8 with 4 more losses on the way.

It'll take a minor miracle for them to finish 17-6.

Where I was wrong is that I did not anticipate Port's collapse whatsoever. If we were undefeated from round 14 we were a minor chance of top 2!
 
We'll see. I remember you had them 17-6 and a good chance at a home QF mid-July while I thought they'd end up 15-8 with 4 more losses on the way.

It'll take a minor miracle for them to finish 17-6.

Where I was wrong is that I did not anticipate Port's collapse whatsoever. If we were undefeated from round 14 we were a minor chance of top 2!
This is quite revisionist! You had them dropping out of the 4! I had them winning 16 which looks spot on!
 
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This is quite revisionist! You had them dropping out of the 4! Where as I’m likely to be one win off.
No I said there was a good chance they'd drop 4 more games (as opposed to 2) so if someone made a crazy run, they could snatch it. Nobody did and they were a whisker away from dropping a couple more since then.

If they finish 16-7 we were both one off, so I'm the only one with a chance. ;)
 
No I said there was a good chance they'd drop 4 more games (as opposed to 2) so if someone made a crazy run, they could snatch it. Nobody did and they were a whisker away from dropping a couple more since then.

If they finish 16-7 we were both one off, so I'm the only one with a chance. ;)
Just checked. I said they’d go 16-4 - which they are still favoured to do.

IMG_2994.jpeg
 
Post #149 of the ladder prediction thread, July 14th. Which is a lot more recent.
It is quite something to watch someone be smug at being less right than me. Kudos fella!
 
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