List Mgmt. Trade & Draft Discussion 2023 post season - Picks Reid,30,40,49,66 (Bush league)

[Lore]

Hello Eagles fans!

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Spoiler: 2023 Draft Order

Spoiler: 2024 Draft Order, aka Future Picks

Spoiler: Blue Tick Rumours

Keys you may like to sticky this post & move it to the start of the thread (so the sticky post doesn't rotate if a post is deleted before it), or copy it to your draft thread if you have one.

 

[Spook]

Why on earth would we trade pick 1 for anything other than pick 2 plus others? Here norf have some more charity...

And coming from you, would you have traded out Hodge?

What's worse. Trading out Hodge, or getting not the best player of the draft??

Does it matter if it’s 2 or 3? obviously the clubs would know or tell each other who they wanted. you guys are getting flogged badly week in week out. if you take Reid without any other quality to show there is a change, then he will do the same as what Horne Francis did.

 

[Jupes]

No changes to any NGA or Academy bidding are happening this year.

We'll receive no additional favours for Collard.


Plenty of crazy rumours doing the rounds however, particularly regarding the lever being pulled over West Coast being the soft cap.

I.e. if pick 1 gets to North, moves may be made to expand the soft cap for those teams that travel more during the season.

they are trying to bribe us to trade the reid pick to norf for soft cap space?

 

[plays tall 1]

We all laughed at the reported offer from North of 4x late first round picks for pick 1 and rightly so. It was stupid and well unders

Now consider this. Our reported asking price of 2 and 3 for 1 is massive overs in normal circumstances and imo unlikely to be offered. I doubt we’d knock it We all laughed at the reported offer from North of 4x late first round picks for pick 1 and rightly so. It was stupid and well unders
Yes, 2&3 for 1 would be great value in normal circumstances. But these are nothing like normal circumstances.

These aren’t normal circumstances though, so picks 2&3 this year are nowhere near as valuable as they normally would be. Many of the likely top 10 players are either not available to us, or are very risky picks.

Jed Walter and Ethan Read are Academy kids so we don’t have access to them.

Watson and Caddy are said to be very reluctant to leave their mummies and hence are high flight risks.

Sanders and McKercher, being Tassie kids, will be huge targets for the Tassie club and have to be rated significant flight risks when Tassie comes on board. And what compensation will we get if we lose them?

Curtin looks a talent but there are question marks on his capabilities in key positions and most seem to have him somewhere from 5 onwards in the draft order.

And the consensus seems to be that the talent level drops off significantly after the top 10.

So those who don’t want us to take 2&3 in exchange for pick 1 aren’t necessarily in la la land; they may just be applying different risk ratings given the exceptional circumstances around the likely top 10 picks this year.

Reid could be a flight risk too, but at least market forces should ensure we’re fairly compensated for losing him. I doubt the same applies with McKercher and Sanders.

 

[MrWoollie]

I suspect our best offer would be

Pick 2, Pick 8 & some steakknives

If true I think our response would be...

thanks for the phone call but don't bother calling back unless you change your mind.

 

[Monocle]

Does it matter if it’s 2 or 3? obviously the clubs would know or tell each other who they wanted. you guys are getting flogged badly week in week out. if you take Reid without any other quality to show there is a change, then he will do the same as what Horne Francis did.

Wishful thinking….me thinks.

You can just see it, opposition supporters getting aroused and excited as they are vigorously rubbing the magic lamp ( or maybe something else), wishing that Reid somehow lands at their Club.

 

[eaglespremiers]

if you take Reid without any other quality to show there is a change, then he will do the same as what Horne Francis did.

That's a pretty substantial leap of logic.
Whilst always possible there are no grounds to suggest that this will necessarily eventuate.
I, for one, am happy for the club to take that risk.

 

[Dylan82]

Going by today's trades, clubs really do not rate the value of this draft beyond that 10-12 range.

Melbourne giving away two second rounders for a 3 pick upgrade from 14 to 11 says it all.


Only adds to the growing list of reasons to not split pick 1.

 

[MerryHell]

Does it matter if it’s 2 or 3? obviously the clubs would know or tell each other who they wanted. you guys are getting flogged badly week in week out. if you take Reid without any other quality to show there is a change, then he will do the same as what Horne Francis did.

This is such an ignorant and illogical post, I don't know what else to say

 

[MrWoollie]

I am happy

2 and F1 would get it down though

Imo

I don't think so.
The F1st is too much of a risk.

When we look at the NM list as it stands, you have 15 (I think) 1st round picks on the list compared to us with 6. And you'll be adding another 5 or 6 this year. That's an entire team of 1st rounders.
If you can't rapidly go up the ladder with that list stacking you have a combination of a number of problems.
1. Your 1st round selections have historically not been genuine 1st rounders,
2. Your coaching sucks,
3. Your club has a long term losing mentality.

With your list and what you got last year you should be pushing top 8.

 

[MerryHell]

Going by today's trades, clubs really do not rate the value of this draft beyond that 10-12 range.

Melbourne giving away two second rounders for a 3 pick upgrade from 14 to 11 says it all.


Only adds to the growing list of reasons to not split pick 1.

Yep, also Bulldogs trading 3 first rounders (10, 17 and 2024 R1) for Pick 4 (now 5).

 

[Spook]

That's a pretty substantial leap of logic.
Whilst always possible there are no grounds to suggest that this will necessarily eventuate.
I, for one, am happy for the club to take that risk.

So you think the go home factor is not a significant factor these days? Jackson, Rankin, Henry, Bruhn, Yeo, Kelly, Horne Francis, Schultz, Brockman….

 

[Keys]

Going by today's trades, clubs really do not rate the value of this draft beyond that 10-12 range.

Melbourne giving away two second rounders for a 3 pick upgrade from 14 to 11 says it all.


Only adds to the growing list of reasons to not split pick 1.

Cal Twomey wrote that they only intend using 2 picks this draft which partially explains why they’ve been so willing to use up multiple picks to move up the draft

Not sure why they haven’t tried getting some future picks though because the trades they’ve done are quite lopsided

 

[briztoon]

The thing we need to be mindful of in this whole pick 1 debacle is that if we do bow to the media pressure and split the pick, and take Curtin with say pick 2, then it goes a way to feeding into the “West Coast favour WA talent” garbage spouted by the Vic media.

In the future we’ll be letting gun Victorian kids in particular dictate terms to an extent by putting rumours out through flogs like McClure that they’re not keen on moving from Victoria.

ROB really needs to stick to his guns that saw us take Chesser, Culley and Maric and just take Reid…

If you trade pick 1 for pick 2 plus whatever's, and you pick Curtin at pick 2, you ARE favouring West Australian talent over Eastern State players.

 

[Keys]

So you think the go home factor is not a significant factor these days? Jackson, Rankin, Henry, Bruhn, Yeo, Kelly, Horne Francis, Schultz, Brockman….

We don’t get spooked so easily

 

[briztoon]

Going by today's trades, clubs really do not rate the value of this draft beyond that 10-12 range.

Melbourne giving away two second rounders for a 3 pick upgrade from 14 to 11 says it all.


Only adds to the growing list of reasons to not split pick 1.

Fox Footy article this evening saying exactly this.

Cats chase great’s grandson after rejection; Dees’ costly trade-up deal explained: Trade Whispers

Cats chase great’s grandson after rejection; Demons’ costly deal explained: Trade Whispers

www.foxsports.com.au

 

[Spook]

Wishful thinking….me thinks.

You can just see it, opposition supporters getting aroused and excited as they are vigorously rubbing the magic lamp ( or maybe something else), wishing that Reid somehow lands at their Club.

As Hawthorn supporters we were happy to get better throughout the year and not get Reid. We bit the bullet and are building a foundation for sustained success.
It seems like many west coast supporters think you just had a couple of years on injuries and get Reid in and we’ll be back playing finals in a couple of years. You need a lot more than 1 player, and getting flogged by over 100 points as many time as you have the last 2 years shows you don’t have that.
Judd didn’t make you a powerful team for an extended period, he was the cream on the solid foundation cake you already had in Gardiner, Cousins, Wirra, Braun, Glass, Embley, Fletcher, Kerr, Cox and then you traded 8 for Chick.

 

[briztoon]

So you think the go home factor is not a significant factor these days? Jackson, Rankin, Henry, Bruhn, Yeo, Kelly, Horne Francis, Schultz, Brockman….

We were a basket case on and off the field at the time, and there was some significant bullying of younger players on our list by another slightly older player back then.

That was the main factor in the Go Home 5. And wasn’t addressed until Fagan arrived at the club.

 

[Dylan82]

Also... WTF Gold Coast...

All buckled-up for those academy players I see with x6 second round picks.

Might want to throw a few bones our way otherwise we'll go 1, 2, 3 with academy bids, then take H.Reid at 4.


Those 6 picks won't cover that - indeed it would be a points deficit equivalent to pick 2.

Time to give us a reason not to bid you into draft oblivion next year.

 

[Spook]

We were a basket case on and off the field at the time, and there was some significant bullying of younger players on our list by another slightly older player back then.

That was the main factor in the Go Home 5. And wasn’t addressed until Fagan arrived at the club.

Yes agreed. It was the factor in that case. West coast only winning 5 of their last 50 odd games and having the one of the lowest percentages in AFL history, not even sure if they want their coach or not with no obvious upside may be a factor as well.

 

[Yeahnahmate]

 

[eaglespremiers]

So you think the go home factor is not a significant factor these days? Jackson, Rankin, Henry, Bruhn, Yeo, Kelly, Horne Francis, Schultz, Brockman….

Not interested in a mindset where we only select local talent to avoid the "go home" factor.
We simply won't be able to rebuild should we buy into this.

Harley has been quite adamant that he would be happy to go to West Coast.
In fact, he said as much to me two weeks ago at a function.
I'm happy to take him at his word. I don't think the risk is any less with the two Tasmanian boys, or Watson or Caddy.
So all of a sudden it's Curtin or bust in the top 10 if we aren't prepared to take a non-WA player, and we need midfielders.

 

[briztoon]

Also... WTF Gold Coast...

All buckled-up for those academy players I see with x6 second round picks.

Might want to throw a few bones our way otherwise we'll go 1, 2, 3 with academy bids, then take H.Reid at 4.


Those 6 picks won't cover that - indeed it would be a points deficit equivalent to pick 2.

Time to give us a reason not to bid you into draft oblivion next year.

Think you missed the boat on that one.

Best you could offer is:

AFL Draft Pick Value Calculator - Draftguru

And that’s barely an upgrade at all.

 

[ep2018]

Also... WTF Gold Coast...

All buckled-up for those academy players I see with x6 second round picks.

Might want to throw a few bones our way otherwise we'll go 1, 2, 3 with academy bids, then take H.Reid at 4.


Those 6 picks won't cover that - indeed it would be a points deficit equivalent to pick 2.

Time to give us a reason not to bid you into draft oblivion next year.

We have a very good relationship with them. In the future we might be in a similar situation where GC could bid early on our prospects.

 

[briztoon]

Yes agreed. It was the factor in that case. West coast only winning 5 of their last 50 odd games and having the worst percentage in AFL history, not even sure if they want their coach or not with no and no obvious upside may be a factor as well.

West Coast have upside, it’s just a few years away.

Loading up on a heap of draftees in this draft, isn’t going to move the needle in the next 3 years.

Even if they are 3 top 10 picks from this years draft.

You don’t win with kids in this league. North and Gold Coast have shown us that over the last 5 years.

 

[Seadog]

Yes agreed. It was the factor in that case. West coast only winning 5 of their last 50 odd games and having the worst percentage in AFL history, not even sure if they want their coach or not with no and no obvious upside may be a factor as well.

Hey Spooky, why don't you piss off back to Spooktown and tell your crap to the ghostly trio, though I shouldn't imagine they are any more interested than we are in your feeble opinions.