List Mgmt. 2024 List Mismanagement and Trading

[Big Dub]

It says that we have 21 average or better players, and Brisbane have 25 average or better players.

In fact we had more above average players than Brisbane

Doesn't pass the smell test to me

The box with Adelaide '24/'25 and Collingwood '23 and Bris '23 is a scenario only, not facts.

The scenario assumes that we go from 4 elite, 7 above av and 8 av (worse than Brisbane on 6, 6, 13) this year to 5, 9, 7 at either '24 or '25. That is slightly worse than Bris '23 at elite, slightly better than Bris '23 at elite + above av and significantly worse than Bris '23 at elite + above av + av. Making that jump was based on a number of assumptions, which you can either agree with or not.

As the scenario states, we would also need to increase our players in the average category to be a "cheeky" chance.

Stats Insider rankings here, if you wanted to play:

2024 SI AFL Player Ratings | Player Rankings

Get ahead of the game with Stats Insider's 2024 AFL Player Ratings. Discover comprehensive player rankings and stats to inform your footy predictions.

www.statsinsider.com.au

 

[Danger in Texas]

Is Keays an Unrestricted Free Agent?

If so, any chance someone poaches him?

Doubt it, he seems the loyal type

 

[dplggr47]

Is Keays an Unrestricted Free Agent?

If so, any chance someone poaches him?

Only if we underpay him.

 

[Vader]

Is Keays an Unrestricted Free Agent?

He's a UFA for life, having previously been delisted by Brisbane

If so, any chance someone poaches him?

No reason to think he'd be interested in leaving. Seems pretty happy playing with Adelaide.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

After missing out on Goad here’s our man, OOC too so will cost bugger all

 

[1990crow]

I’m looking forward to what we do over 2024, 2025 and 2026 off seasons as we come into contention.
The bulk of the talent is already there.
Looking at below there’s likely 6 or 7 good to very good players we could bring in on top of existing talent.
I’ll do a potential best 22 of 2027 without known acquisitions vs potential.

2024
Welsh FS
Free agent
Trade 2024 first

2025
Free agent
Trade 2025 first

2026
Free agent
Draft First rounder

2027 best 22 without acquisition
FB Michalanney ~ Murray ~ Worrell
HB Hinge ~ Curtin ~ Milera
C Soligo ~ Pedlar ~ Jones
R Obrien ~ Dawson ~ Rachele
HF Dowling ~ Thilthorpe ~ Keays
FF Welsh ~ Fogarty ~ Rankine
B Edwards ~ Nankervis ~ Ryan ~ Taylor

Proposed acquisitions

2024
Free agent - Hayward
Trade first for Petty

2025
Free agent - LDU
trade first for - Wanganeen-Milera

2026
Free agent - Lukosius
Draft - ???

2027 side with acquisitions
FB Michalanney ~ Murray ~ Worrell
HB Hinge ~ Petty ~ Milera
C Dawson ~ Pedlar ~ Wanganeen-Milera
R Obrien ~ LDU ~ Curtin
HF Lukosius ~ Thilthorpe ~ Rachele
FF Rankine ~ Fogarty ~ Welsh
B Soligo ~ Edwards ~ Hayward ~ Ryan
S: Nankervis/Dowling

Extras: Keays, Keane/Butts, Jones, Taylor

 

[Danger in Texas]

I’m looking forward to what we do over 2024, 2025 and 2026 off seasons as we come into contention.
The bulk of the talent is already there.
Looking at below there’s likely 6 or 7 good to very good players we could bring in on top of existing talent.
I’ll do a potential best 22 of 2027 without known acquisitions vs potential.

2024
Welsh FS
Free agent
Trade 2024 first

2025
Free agent
Trade 2025 first

2026
Free agent
Draft First rounder

2027 best 22 without acquisition
FB Michalanney ~ Murray ~ Worrell
HB Hinge ~ Curtin ~ Milera
C Soligo ~ Pedlar ~ Jones
R Obrien ~ Dawson ~ Rachele
HF Dowling ~ Thilthorpe ~ Keays
FF Welsh ~ Fogarty ~ Rankine
B Edwards ~ Nankervis ~ Ryan ~ Taylor

Proposed acquisitions

2024
Free agent - Hayward
Trade first for Petty

2025
Free agent - LDU
trade first for - Wanganeen-Milera

2026
Free agent - Lukosius
Draft - ???

2027 side with acquisitions
FB Michalanney ~ Murray ~ Worrell
HB Hinge ~ Petty ~ Milera
C Dawson ~ Pedlar ~ Wanganeen-Milera
R Obrien ~ LDU ~ Curtin
HF Lukosius ~ Thilthorpe ~ Rachele
FF Rankine ~ Fogarty ~ Welsh
B Soligo ~ Edwards ~ Hayward ~ Ryan
S: Nankervis/Dowling

Extras: Keays, Keane/Butts, Jones, Taylor

2027 best 23 is so hard to predict, but I’ll give it a crack

B: Michalanney, Murray, Worrell
HB: Hinge, Curtin, Wanganeen-Milera
C: Jones, Dawson, Soligo
HF: Rachele, Thilthorpe, Hayward
F: Rankine, Fogarty, Welsh
R: ROB (Moyle/Barnett?), Edwards, Pedlar
I/C: Laird, Keays, Ryan, Nank/Dowling
Sub: unknown draftee

I’m assuming a couple of bigger acquisitions (I’m going Hayward and NWM because why not)

 

[1990crow]

2027 best 23 is so hard to predict, but I’ll give it a crack

B: Michalanney, Murray, Worrell
HB: Hinge, Curtin, Wanganeen-Milera
C: Jones, Dawson, Soligo
HF: Rachele, Thilthorpe, Hayward
F: Rankine, Fogarty, Welsh
R: ROB (Moyle/Barnett?), Edwards, Pedlar
I/C: Laird, Keays, Ryan, Nank/Dowling
Sub: unknown draftee

I’m assuming a couple of bigger acquisitions (I’m going Hayward and NWM because why not)

Don't reckon Laird will still be around.
And I think we should be able to bring in at least 4 senior players.

 

[Danger in Texas]

Don't reckon Laird will still be around.
And I think we should be able to bring in at least 4 senior players.

Will be 33 in 2027, I think there’s a chance of it, obviously wouldn’t be the player he is now, though

4 senior acquisitions in three offseasons is dreaming pretty big, but it’s possible I guess

 

[El Doederino]

2027 best 23 is so hard to predict, but I’ll give it a crack

B: Michalanney, Murray, Worrell
HB: Hinge, Curtin, Wanganeen-Milera
C: Jones, Dawson, Soligo
HF: Rachele, Thilthorpe, Hayward
F: Rankine, Fogarty, Welsh
R: ROB (Moyle/Barnett?), Edwards, Pedlar
I/C: Laird, Keays, Ryan, Nank/Dowling
Sub: unknown draftee

I’m assuming a couple of bigger acquisitions (I’m going Hayward and NWM because why not)

You’re missing Lukosius

 

[Danger in Texas]

You’re missing Lukosius

Am I?

Not sure that one happens

 

[El Doederino]

Am I?

Not sure that one happens

Free agent. It’s a certainty.

 

[crows dude]

Surely ROB has retired by 2027 or we will have a new ruck

 

[Carmo]

2027 side with acquisitions
FB Michalanney ~ Murray ~ Worrell
HB Hinge ~ Petty ~ Milera
C Dawson ~ Pedlar ~ Wanganeen-Milera
R Obrien ~ LDU ~ Curtin
HF Lukosius ~ Thilthorpe ~ Rachele
FF Rankine ~ Fogarty ~ Welsh
B Soligo ~ Edwards ~ Hayward ~ Ryan
S: Nankervis/Dowling

Extras: Keays, Keane/Butts, Jones, Taylor

Reckon if we get Petty, Butts will be part of the deal, I reckon he wants to go back to vic, helps not use up as much draft capital.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Reckon if we get Petty, Butts will be part of the deal, I reckon he wants to go back to vic, helps not use up as much draft capital.

Cmon Carmo ....that's really just pulling something out of mid-air

 

[Bearded Clam]

Reckon if we get Petty, Butts will be part of the deal, I reckon he wants to go back to vic, helps not use up as much draft capital.

Maybe..

but will the Dees have much interest in a run of the mill KPD like Butts?.. they’ll probably ask for Murray if they are gonna want a player back..

And they see Petty as a KPF now not a KPD.. that’s why they desperately wanted to keep him.. as their KPF stocks are non existent.

I suppose they probably do need to start looking at May and Lever replacements in the next couple of years.

 

[1970crow]

And yet, plenty still confused as to why our club would end up with below average players on its list.

Nothing wrong with having average and below average players on our list, it's when they're mid aged and older and they're locked them into 22 for fear of the unknown that it is a problem. Dividing players into a handful of categories by way of stats is pretty weak anyway. A player that just sneaks into a higher category looks the same as another who just missed out on the next one up. And there appears no accounting for where these players are at in their career. Would you really prefer the average Sloane ahead of below average Pedlar?

 

[1970crow]

I've used stats insiders' player rankings, which I find to be generally pretty good, and then applied the AFL ratings approach to these:
Elite: top 55 (10% assuming c.550 players used per year)
Above average: up to 185 (23%)
Average: up to 365 (66%)
Below Average: up to 550 (100%)
Poor: outside the top 550

If you spot check player ratings to the AFL websites showing the AFL ratings, they line up pretty closely, even ROB and Crouch.

Stats Insider has more players ranked than play that year (hence the poor category, which AFL doesn't have). It also might explain why Pedlar is lower than both of us expected, as prior year games have an impact.

4 elite, 7 above average and 8 average players isn't as deep as the contending teams, as can be seen by the Collingwood and Brisbane examples given. You don't get to a flag by having just the most elite and above average players, or just having the best midfield.

shouldn't your rating categories reflect the % among those performing the same role? So Laird you have as elite because you're comparing his rating to defenders and forwards. That is a terminal flaw and renders your assessment worthless. Dawson ranks 18/159 (top 11%) midfielders and Laird 40th (top 25%). So neither are in the elite category in their role, but Dawson is close and expect to get there.

 

[1970crow]

It says that we have 21 average or better players, and Brisbane have 25 average or better players.

In fact we had more above average players than Brisbane

Doesn't pass the smell test to me

Bad coaching? Just unlucky? AFL conspiracy against us?

 

[1970crow]

Is Keays an Unrestricted Free Agent?

If so, any chance someone poaches him?

presumably. Would be handy for a developing side looking to pick themselves up off the canvas. Although Roos already have bucketloads of talent to get on the park in the midfield/mid-forward area.

 

[1990crow]

Out of the mist more likely...

If we were trading for Petty he'd be a good chip to cash in. Reduce what we have to give up.

 

[Carmo]

Cmon Carmo ....that's really just pulling something out of mid-air

Just a feeling. I first said it a year ago, so I thought he would go this offseason. Wrong on that one. Still, time will tell wont it?

 

[BRL121]

Just a feeling. I first said it a year ago, so I thought he would go this offseason. Wrong on that one. Still, time will tell wont it?

What about his recent contract?

 

[Carmo]

Maybe..

but will the Dees have much interest in a run of the mill KPD like Butts?.. they’ll probably ask for Murray if they are gonna want a player back..

And they see Petty as a KPF now not a KPD.. that’s why they desperately wanted to keep him.. as their KPF stocks are non existent.

I suppose they probably do need to start looking at May and Lever replacements in the next couple of years.

According to the logic of this silly offseason Butts would've yielded a pick between 5-15! Surely you wouldn't want to snub your nose at that and they can ask for Murray all they want but they aint getting him.

If you are losing a key positioner, whilst contending, it is helpful if your window is only open for a bit longer to get experience back rather than getting a pick and going the draftee path.

 

[Carmo]

What about his recent contract?

If you believe my conspiracy theory, clubs and players these days are more mature about player movements. If a player wants to move the coach would prefer to know than not and will do what they can to fix up the issue causing the want to move or if that cant be done then to facilitate the move. All they ask in return is that the players work with them and the club to an extent. I think Butts wanted to go back when he got the new contract, I think the club said, if you go uncontracted we'll be screwed by the recieving club, can you re-sign on with us and if you do that, we'll get you to your destination, but it may take a year or two. Would you be willing to do that? I think Butts agreed. Himmelberg was a similar situation.