2024 Draft Thread.

[Mat Mann]

Draft Period, November 20–21

• Round 1 of the National Draft: Wednesday, November 20
• Round 2–end of the National Draft: Thursday, November 21
• Rookie Promotions: Thursday, November 21, after the National Draft
• Delisted Free Agency Period (3): Thursday, November 21, after the National Draft
• List Lodgement 3*: Friday, November 22, 10am (optional; required for those participating in the PSD)
• Pre-Season Draft: Friday, November 22, 3pm
• Rookie Draft: Friday, November 22, 3.20pm

 

[Moral Decay]

The push to recruit choirboys was an over correction from the nude pic/school girl/dwarf scandals.

People always ignore the fact that 2013 was ground zero in the rebuild which started with a draft of 3 kids they expected to be our future midfield.

2014 was the ‘get your spine sorted’ draft.

It didn’t work out & the guys who made those calls are long gone.


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And the rape scandals Milne, and Lovett Murray then the Stanley drug issue. I know a lot of us here like to give the club a kicking for picking "good boys" instead of "good ol' boys" or bad boys with talent, the problem is we aren't Collingwood with a president that specializes in media control, nor Carlton or Essendon with deeper than deep pockets, or WestCoast with deep pockets and a tame media.

We need sponsor money and sponsors don't like scandal I'm not surprised we have picked so many good boys and I think the reasons why are obvious.

 

[gringo2011]

Player comparison time, Jagga Smith reminded me of someone but I could never put my finger on it. I finally got it, it could be an unpopular opinion but he absolutely reminds me of Darcy Parish as an under 18. Anyone else see the similarities?

Definitely in build and movement at times.

 

[Mangus]

as i said, a simple google search will prove you otherwise, but if people want to go with the narrative that we clearly chose wrongly post the fact, then so be it, but he definitely wasn't clear no.1... this year there are many experts predicting many possible no.1 draft picks and then down to our picks at 9/10. Which one is clearly better than the next player? Definitely not an easy thing to do, but we can sit here behind our keyboards and say we know better. Just draft the best player and dont draft for position....

It's clear we need a linebreaking mid (so does everyone) and a key back. Do we draft the best 2 players (mids) available at 9/10 or do we trade a pick to get the best key back plus the next best other? Personally, i say we keep them as is and go the best 2 available, but i'm not going to throw my arms up if we trade down either.

This is revisionist history only reason Phantoms like Cals had McCartin at 1 was because they had word that StKilda was likely to take him over Petracca. It was a shock then and only looks worse in hindsight.

We got spooked by the Tom Boyd trade and decided it was cheaper to draft a key forward than trade for one. Broke the golden rule of the draft always go best available.

Petracca was a clear standout no 1 all year till the Saints got windy in the last month leading up to the draft.

Is clearly in the top 5 worst draft decisions of all time. Up there with Richmond choosing Tambling over Buddy

I don’t blame them for Bont - Boyd Kelly and Billing’s were clear top 3 that year Bulldogs to a punt on Bonts potential at 4 he was the late season bolter based more on potential rather than performance

 

[HeavenlySources]

GWS' pick 15+16 have been thrown up in a lot of swap ideas lately and seem an obvious target, but apparently West Coast offered pick 3 for them and they turned it down

Adding some nuance to this, I think the value of high-end picks changes from trade period to draft night. Especially for a club like GWS who are known to trade up for players, Pick 15 & 16 gives more flexibility to do that than Pick 3 does.

 

[goodie23]

Because of our list demographic and because of next year's compromised draft

West Coast's future first for a four active pick slide though? That's seriously tempting - if a club took it 11 months ago when they were desperately chasing Curtain they'd have got pick 3 this year. Instead:

• Hawthorn took Watson (and then screwed West Coast on the Barass deal this year, how different that may have played out if they started trade period with 3 and 14)
• Dogs took Sanders which made sense given what they'd already paid for that pick
• Melbourne took Windsor and managed to get two first rounders this year anyway
• Giants were wooed by the Crows and Phoenix Gothard
• Adelaide took Curtin
• Geelong got a free second rounder that wound up being Mannagh like we fleeced GWS
• Essendon prioritised Caddy

Kind of surprising how many teams knocked back a future first from the at-the-time wooden spooners. Given the evenness of the draft board, we should seriously consider that offer if West Coast do put it forward.

 

[Joffaboy]

This is revisionist history only reason Phantoms like Cals had McCartin at 1 was because they had word that StKilda was likely to take him over Petracca. It was a shock then and only looks worse in hindsight.

We got spooked by the Tom Boyd trade and decided it was cheaper to draft a key forward than trade for one. Broke the golden rule of the draft always go best available.

Petracca was a clear standout no 1 all year till the Saints got windy in the last month leading up to the draft.

Is clearly in the top 5 worst draft decisions of all time. Up there with Richmond choosing Tambling over Buddy

I don’t blame them for Bont - Boyd Kelly and Billing’s were clear top 3 that year Bulldogs to a punt on Bonts potential at 4 he was the late season bolter based more on potential rather than performance

WTF are people still prosecuting the McCartin/Petracca case?

Everyone give it a fk'n rest. I was firmly in the Petracca camp, though he was the best and that you don't build a tilt around a full forward. This was twofold
1) We tried that with the messiah Plugger (and a couple of superstars). Traded Plugger (kept the others) and almost won a flag two years later
2) We needed a bull midfielder to build the team around. Midfielders win flag. Haven't we learned that by now? Look at the people we have now, who have concentrated on the midfield and will look to add to more potential stars.
McCartin was the wrong choice. An injury bust, he was never able to have the opportunity to develop.

Absolute fantasy to say Patrecca was the overwhelming choice like it was Harley Reid v Jodie Arnol and everyone agreed.
Can we put this bs to bed.

 

[akaifu]

If you get them for free I don't see the harm

Well as dumb as West Coast are, they wouldn't even put in an offer like that so idk why this is even a discussion point

 

[Darkhour]

This is revisionist history only reason Phantoms like Cals had McCartin at 1 was because they had word that StKilda was likely to take him over Petracca. It was a shock then and only looks worse in hindsight.

We got spooked by the Tom Boyd trade and decided it was cheaper to draft a key forward than trade for one. Broke the golden rule of the draft always go best available.

Petracca was a clear standout no 1 all year till the Saints got windy in the last month leading up to the draft.

Is clearly in the top 5 worst draft decisions of all time. Up there with Richmond choosing Tambling over Buddy

I don’t blame them for Bont - Boyd Kelly and Billing’s were clear top 3 that year Bulldogs to a punt on Bonts potential at 4 he was the late season bolter based more on potential rather than performance

People have already asked not to continue down this line, but if you're going to accuse me of revisionist history (being an ex-history teacher and a pet hate), I'll take offence. If anything, it's the opposite and something some people and the media are banging on in hindsight to have a go at the saints heirarchy about. The internet history is there as proof. No-one in their right mind is going to knock back a 'clear' no 1 draft pick and choose the second best. We took a decision on a lineball 50/50 or 60/40 choice, and it is just what it is.

My point was simply that yes, you should always take the best player available, but if it's lineball, i.e. (50/50 or 60/40) then it's fair you look at drafting for position. In this draft, the decision is, imho, whether we just draft the 2 best available or trade back 1 pick so we can go for a KD positional player(s).

 

[beside the seaside]

Well as dumb as West Coast are, they wouldn't even put in an offer like that so idk why this is even a discussion point

They have two future firsts, they absolutely could put an offer to move up with a future first if there's a player they desperately want. We got a F2 off GWS last year to move up one spot.

 

[St Neil]

Let's not overcomplicate things
Pick 7: Langford.
Pick 8: Reid.

Happy days!

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I think the point is that IF we have a number of players we can’t separate at pick 8 then it is obvious to split the pick for multiple picks.

Flood the list with great kids this year and start developing like crazy. Especially with next year’s draft being full of Academy types and 2026 seeing Tasmania come in.

Increasing our draft hand would also mean opening up list spots and possibly delaying the agreement to draft/rookie a Sandringham listed player.

The more I think about it the more I am attracted to the idea of splitting pick 8.

However we do nothing until draft night. Let’s see who is there at 7 & 8. Imagine if Draper or Smith slides to our picks with Langford or Smilie also still on the board. Then we would just use picks 7 & 8.


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[akaifu]

They have two future firsts, they absolutely could put an offer to move up with a future first if there's a player they desperately want. We got a F2 off GWS last year to move up one spot.

Sliding from 8 to 12 is 4 spots

West Coast won't offer their own F1 for a 4 spot climb so that's off the table

They have Hawthorn's F1. Maybe that'd get a trade done but I don't think the Eagles would want to trade a pick 12-18 to move from 12 to 8 in an even draft

Also

If you listen to Misson etc., the whole plan about this list was to have a 4-year draft window. 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024. Nothing more, nothing less. Sure, any club would love an extra 1st rounder, but not sure how keen we'd be to slide from 8-12 given the situation with this draft's midfielder range

Next year is all about free agents and trade. We will likely be able to trade multiple years into the future to get the likes of Callaghan and Aleer done (if they even nominate us) so that isn't an issue. We might have one or two NGA/FS players, and maybe that Sandy rookie. List spots will be relatively tight given this list of OOC players next year (we won't want to delist many I suspect, maybe 5-6 max; McLennan, Crouch (will already be gone), Webster, LOC, Stocker, Hall, Byrnes, Cordy, Jones)

 

[Tommy Wigs]

He is a forward/mid for sure.

Just think if there’s none of the elite 6 mids left, we’re already looking at flankers and maybe mids so may as well grab the most talented of them in Hotton, should we hold the pick.

I’m almost certain we will move it around though in this scenario and hopefully still pick up Hotton with an early teen pick and a tall in the second round, KPP or mobile Ruck/Forward

I wonder if we could sneak out with this scenario concocted as a dream on the dog walk: Richmond continue to hold 10 and 11, North either not trading 2 or 6 and 18 and extras are used. A good mid lands at 7. Richmond trying to beat Melbourne to Armstrong leads to a F1 and 8 for 10 and 11 deal. We then select at 10, then slide down at 11 ….

And slide again. And again. Until we have 15 picks between 40 and 60. SOS strikes.

 

[falkstar]

Sliding from 8 to 12 is 4 spots

West Coast won't offer their own F1 for a 4 spot climb so that's off the table

They have Hawthorn's F1. Maybe that'd get a trade done but I don't think the Eagles would want to trade a pick 12-18 to move from 12 to 8 in an even draft

Also

If you listen to Misson etc., the whole plan about this list was to have a 4-year draft window. 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024. Nothing more, nothing less. Sure, any club would love an extra 1st rounder, but not sure how keen we'd be to slide from 8-12 given the situation with this draft's midfielder range

Next year is all about free agents and trade. We will likely be able to trade multiple years into the future to get the likes of Callaghan and Aleer done (if they even nominate us) so that isn't an issue. We might have one or two NGA/FS players, and maybe that Sandy rookie. List spots will be relatively tight given this list of OOC players next year (we won't want to delist many I suspect, maybe 5-6 max; McLennan, Crouch (will already be gone), Webster, LOC, Stocker, Hall, Byrnes, Cordy, Jones)

View attachment 2147449

The 2021-2024 draft hitting strategy then free agents and trade in for end of 2025 Sounds like a nice sales pitch. But 2022 is looking like 1 player only from that draft making it.

 

[Train12]

Our president referenced about hitting the draft for four straight drafts before moving to free agents and trading players in.

David mission spoke on radio after the trade period and said this is our 4th draft of bringing young talent in.

I recon we will be trying to trade our future first, trying to get another top 15 pick.

 

[Sol Goodman]

He wasn't, though. Many experts were divided between the 2; that's the point. We chose the key position player because they don't grow on trees.

Mate it wasn't even close.

 

[Hayes4PM]

 

[Mangus]

First task of a midfielder is get your hands on the ball first second task is to do so cleanly then third get it out to your team mate in space or create that space yourself and burst from stoppage and get the ball inside 50 fourth you need to be able to run and be part of the chains in open play. Then the bit most top U18 mids usually are lacking Defensive mindset you need to be able to defend clearance when your side doesn’t get first hands on the ball.

Out of the seven possible mids Lalor FOS Draper Jagga Langford Smilie and Reid who is going to have the most impact in each of these phases.
IMO
First Hands - Jagga - Smile - Reid
Clean Hands - Reid - Jagga - Langford
Distribution - Reid - Jagga - FOS
Burst from Stoppage - Lalor - Draper - FOS
Open play - Langford - FOS - Draper
Tackle and Defend at Stoppage -Smile - Lalor - Langford

Purely on Stats from the Champs

Best Clearance players: Jagga 27 Langford 25 Smilie 23 Draper 15 Reid 13 (Lalor 4 and FOS 2)
That probably reflects in part the limited on ball time for FOS and Lalor and less so Reid but also reflects who the coaches wanted in the middle most.
Contested Uncontested Ratios also interesting:
Reid 37:59 Jagga 55:64 Smilie 41:34 Langford 43:59
FOS 9:20 Lalor 15:19 Draper 32:55
Smile heavily weighted to inside Jagga and Langford get similar numbers inside but have a better outside game and Reid stacks up pretty well inside and out.
FOS and Lalor really show they are being rated on potential not performance though FOS was excellent last year

Make of that what you will

 

[akaifu]

The 2021-2024 draft hitting strategy then free agents and trade in for end of 2025 Sounds like a nice sales pitch. But 2022 is looking like 1 player only from that draft making it.

Its not a sales pitch, its a proven formula

Look at how Brisbane built their premiership side, 2014-2017 were where the main bulk of their list came from (Andrews, Hipwood, McCluggage, Berry, Rayner, Bailey, Starcevich, Payne) before going hard at trading in 2018 (Neale, Adams, McCarthy, Lyons). They made plenty of errors throughout this period, but still came out with a premiership + potentially more, so it shows the bulletproof system even if you make mistakes

Melbourne from 2012-2015 also did so (Hogan, Viney, Salem, Harmes, Trac, Brayshaw, ANB, Melksham, Oliver), before going hard at trades in 2016-2018 (Hibberd, Lewis, Lever, May)

Both premiership sides built from a 4-year window of successful drafting. It wasn't perfect through these 4 years - there are some misses, but get a few of them right and it sets you up for over a decade because you can refine and build the team around this core

Its still too early to call, but that's the vibe we are getting from Nas/Mitch/Windy/Pou/Wilson etc + pick 7 & 8. Nail the picks in this period to create the core, then go hard at trade next year to add the necessary experience to the core. Then just keep slowly adding talent via teens picks and FAs etc

Next year with its compromised draft is the perfect time to enter our 'trade and FA' period

 

[akaifu]

First task of a midfielder is get your hands on the ball first second task is to do so cleanly then third get it out to your team mate in space or create that space yourself and burst from stoppage and get the ball inside 50 fourth you need to be able to run and be part of the chains in open play. Then the bit most top U18 mids usually are lacking Defensive mindset you need to be able to defend clearance when your side doesn’t get first hands on the ball.

Out of the seven possible mids Lalor FOS Draper Jagga Langford Smilie and Reid who is going to have the most impact in each of these phases.
IMO
First Hands - Jagga - Smile - Reid
Clean Hands - Reid - Jagga - Langford
Distribution - Reid - Jagga - FOS
Burst from Stoppage - Lalor - Draper - FOS
Open play - Langford - FOS - Draper
Tackle and Defend at Stoppage -Smile - Lalor - Langford

Purely on Stats from the Champs

Best Clearance players: Jagga 27 Langford 25 Smilie 23 Draper 15 Reid 13 (Lalor 4 and FOS 2)
That probably reflects in part the limited on ball time for FOS and Lalor and less so Reid but also reflects who the coaches wanted in the middle most.
Contested Uncontested Ratios also interesting:
Reid 37:59 Jagga 55:64 Smilie 41:34 Langford 43:59
FOS 9:20 Lalor 15:19 Draper 32:55
Smile heavily weighted to inside Jagga and Langford get similar numbers inside but have a better outside game and Reid stacks up pretty well inside and out.
FOS and Lalor really show they are being rated on potential not performance though FOS was excellent last year

Make of that what you will

The fact that FOS and Lalor's stats are the worst of the lot yet are the only two Richmond are considering at pick 1 should be a sign that stats mean very little and that potential is what mostly matters. Can't stress how important it is to evaluate how a kid will transition into the AFL when comparing them to their peers. Feel like people overrate the weighting of current performance way too much

 

[Darkhour]

The fact that FOS and Lalor's stats are the worst of the lot yet are the only two Richmond are considering at pick 1 should be a sign that stats mean very little and that potential is what mostly matters. Can't stress how important it is to evaluate how a kid will transition into the AFL when comparing them to their peers. Feel like people overrate the weighting of current performance way too much

Agreed, a fantastic VFL wont always translate to AFL and a average VFL player can set the world on fire in the AFL... Someone mentioned it earlier. If you are trying to push your disposal to your max and above your teammate's ability to receive, you're going to turn the ball over i.e. Wilson and the over the shoulder..

 

[Sol Goodman]

Looking at our starting mids in 24. Not having Crouch and Ross at all. Missing Windy and Jones for big chunks left big holes in the starting midfield.
I watched the pies win again and Windy was huge. It was around 28 and 16cp. Most on ground. Also before Henry got injured he looked fantastic on mid / fwd rotation. Then Jones found good form in the end of the season, as did Mattaes. So there's a few to rotate through there already before our draftees.
I think a starting midfield of Steele, McRae, Windy/Jones/Henry/Mattaes + Clark/Garcia is a good mix of ins/outs and experience / development before the newbies.

 

[BigMonty]

My feeling is we keep 7 & 8 and get another pick for going rate which is f1 &f2.

Norf will probably drop back to 6 and take Tigers pick 11 or maybe 18 and 24 who knows. If that does not happen then Tiges with 3 picks inside 10 will trade 11 into next year and we must be a chance for f1 & f2.

Tigers also have 18 20 23 and 24. I cannot see them using all of them in this draft.

Our pick 7 and 8 fit with last best mid or first best tall, be interesting to see who comes shopping.

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[akaifu]

Looking at our starting mids in 24. Not having Crouch and Ross at all. Missing Windy and Jones for big chunks left big holes in the starting midfield.
I watched the pies win again and Windy was huge. It was around 28 and 16cp. Most on ground. Also before Henry got injured he looked fantastic on mid / fwd rotation. Then Jones found good form in the end of the season, as did Mattaes. So there's a few to rotate through there already before our draftees.
I think a starting midfield of Steele, McRae, Windy/Jones/Henry/Mattaes + Clark/Garcia is a good mix of ins/outs and experience / development before the newbies.

Agreed

I think Steele/Mattaes or Macrae/Mattaes will form a half fwd to inside mid rotation to ensure we don't overdo it with the big mids. We saw Ross push Steele forward a bit more in the latter half of the season when Pou was back - start Steele in cba with Pou HF, then swap them when in general play

I don't think Jones is best 23 so assuming full fitness, he'll be in the VFL imo

Macrae/Clark, Steele/Pou, Windy/Garcia/Henry is where I see it atm. Maybe sprinkle in a bit of Wilson or even Nas

 

[SteeleSaints]

First task of a midfielder is get your hands on the ball first second task is to do so cleanly then third get it out to your team mate in space or create that space yourself and burst from stoppage and get the ball inside 50 fourth you need to be able to run and be part of the chains in open play. Then the bit most top U18 mids usually are lacking Defensive mindset you need to be able to defend clearance when your side doesn’t get first hands on the ball.

Out of the seven possible mids Lalor FOS Draper Jagga Langford Smilie and Reid who is going to have the most impact in each of these phases.
IMO
First Hands - Jagga - Smile - Reid
Clean Hands - Reid - Jagga - Langford
Distribution - Reid - Jagga - FOS
Burst from Stoppage - Lalor - Draper - FOS
Open play - Langford - FOS - Draper
Tackle and Defend at Stoppage -Smile - Lalor - Langford

Purely on Stats from the Champs

Best Clearance players: Jagga 27 Langford 25 Smilie 23 Draper 15 Reid 13 (Lalor 4 and FOS 2)
That probably reflects in part the limited on ball time for FOS and Lalor and less so Reid but also reflects who the coaches wanted in the middle most.
Contested Uncontested Ratios also interesting:
Reid 37:59 Jagga 55:64 Smilie 41:34 Langford 43:59
FOS 9:20 Lalor 15:19 Draper 32:55
Smile heavily weighted to inside Jagga and Langford get similar numbers inside but have a better outside game and Reid stacks up pretty well inside and out.
FOS and Lalor really show they are being rated on potential not performance though FOS was excellent last year

Make of that what you will

Great summary.

I think if Richmond and others were picking on this years form alone they wouldnt go any where near FOS or Lalor, they will be picked on last years out puts. Smillie, Langford and Reid are the most likely to get through to us, your assessment supports each of them.

 

[stfan]

I don't think Jones is best 23 so assuming full fitness, he'll be in the VFL imo

Macrae/Clark, Steele/Pou, Windy/Garcia/Henry is where I see it atm. Maybe sprinkle in a bit of Wilson or even Nas

I would not discount Clark. Things happen when he is on the ball.

Hopefully he can his 2025 fully fit and unhampered fora change.