2011 Draft Discussion

[knobby]

#27 - S. Nelson
#41 - M. Grigg
#46 - C. Ellis-Yolman
#64 - Pass

 

[jut666]

Yes, I'm depressed at the low probability of us achieving anything vaguely resembling success at the draft table tonight. Rendell's failure with picks in the 30+ range has been highlighted recently - and pick #27 in this year's draft is probably worth pick #50 in any other draft, so no, I am not enthused.


According to our draft history since Rendell joined AFC in 2007, we have had 9 picks in all post pick 30, of which we've netted Rory Sloane & Taylor Walker. As both are pivotal and important cogs who have committed to the club, I think we've done well. Check all clubs post pick 30, and you'll find the ratio is about the same of who has gone one and who has been delisted.

 

[Vader]

Walker doesn't count. He was signed by Fantasia and was taken with our last selection in the ND due to the fact that he was a NSW Scholarship holder.

So far Sloane is Rendell's only success in the 30+ range.

Failures include Kite, Jacky, Cook, Young, Armstrong, Lee & Craig. The jury is still out on Shaw & Lyons.

 

[Lawrst]

I'd say Armstrong was a success and will be going forward for the swans. Young is too early to call yet as it seems likely he will be rookied.

 

[Dandy_GO]

I don't know anything much beyond the SANFL kids I've seen at league level (and, on that note, I think GWS will be making a ridiculous mistake if they let Wingard drop to Port's pick) but, from the videos I've watched, I hope we pick up Julian Dobosz at some stage. I like players who know how to read the ball in the air. It's rarer than you think, but, from the highlights package and writeup PyroCrow posted, he seems like one of those players. Also looks great off the ground (as you'd expect, form a soccer convert.) May be a handy Gunston replacement. Do you have an opinion on him, Wall-E? Or any other poster, for that matter?

 

[PyroCrow]

Walker doesn't count. He was signed by Fantasia and was taken with our last selection in the ND due to the fact that he was a NSW Scholarship holder.

So far Sloane is Rendell's only success in the 30+ range.

Failures include Kite, Jacky, Cook, Young, Armstrong, Lee & Craig. The jury is still out on Shaw & Lyons.

Too early to call Armstrong a failure, expect him to play his role well for the Swans. Was playing solid footy before he was traded and if he didn't demand a trade he would probably still be on the list.

Young and Craig appear likely to be rookied so the jury should still be out.

So if you discount Shaw and Lyons I would say 4/7 have been failures as players so far. Not that much worse than many other recruiters in the league surely?

 

[Vader]

I'd say Armstrong was a success and will be going forward for the swans. Young is too early to call yet as it seems likely he will be rookied.

I'd say you have a very generous definition of "success". At best Armstrong's in the "jury still out" category.

Young is likely to be rookie listed. Much though I'd love to see him achieve success, I'm struggling to see it happening for him. The fact that he's already been delisted puts him clearly in the failed basket.

Craig is hoping to be rookie listed, but I can't see it happening. He's too short to be a ruckman and doesn't have enough strings to his bow to play any other KPP role. What's left for him? A long and (hopefully) successful SANFL career.

So.. promoting Armstrong, we're still looking at 1 success, 6 failures, 3 TBA. Ignoring the TBA's, that's a 14.3% hit ratio for the 30+ selections. I'm struggling to see that being better than the league average.

At least Rendell has (significantly) improved our hit rate in the < 30 selection range.

 

[PyroCrow]

I'd say you have a very generous definition of "success". At best he's in the "jury still out" category.

Young is likely to be rookie listed. Much though I'd love to see him achieve success, I'm struggling to see it happening for him. The fact that he's already been delisted puts him clearly in the failed basket.

Porps?

 

[Lawrst]

I'd say you have a very generous definition of "success". At best he's in the "jury still out" category.

Young is likely to be rookie listed. Much though I'd love to see him achieve success, I'm struggling to see it happening for him. The fact that he's already been delisted puts him clearly in the failed basket.

I think you are being overly harsh.

To say a success is a Sloane type is rediculous given the turnover rate of players on an AFL list. Clubs are always going to take players with obvious deficiencies but other obvious talents. If they cant improve what needs to be done they wont make it.

Thats what the later rounds are about. Armstrong was chased hard by sydney and we ened up with Johnston because of it. Thats a fair for a player taken in his possition.

Young has the ability to become a very handy KPD and at worse a good backup. Im not counting him out just yet.

 

[srv23]

I'd say you have a very generous definition of "success". At best Armstrong's in the "jury still out" category.

Young is likely to be rookie listed. Much though I'd love to see him achieve success, I'm struggling to see it happening for him. The fact that he's already been delisted puts him clearly in the failed basket.

Craig is hoping to be rookie listed, but I can't see it happening. He's too short to be a ruckman and doesn't have enough strings to his bow to play any other KPP role. What's left for him? A long and (hopefully) successful SANFL career.

So.. promoting Armstrong, we're still looking at 1 success, 6 failures, 3 TBA. Ignoring the TBA's, that's a 14.3% hit ratio for the 30+ selections. I'm struggling to see that being better than the league average.

At least Rendell has (significantly) improved our hit rate in the < 30 selection range.

What about the rookie draft Vader?

Petrenko, Wright, L Thompson, Jaensch, Riley, Henderson, Curnow (with Carlton) are hardly failures so far.

I'm glad you weren't in charge of recriting in the last 5-10 years. Porps would have been cast out as a unredeemable failure with zero chance of being a succes after getting delisted the first time..

 

[WALL-e]

I don't know anything much beyond the SANFL kids I've seen at league level (and, on that note, I think GWS will be making a ridiculous mistake if they let Wingard drop to Port's pick) but, from the videos I've watched, I hope we pick up Julian Dobosz at some stage. I like players who know how to read the ball in the air. It's rarer than you think, but, from the highlights package and writeup PyroCrow posted, he seems like one of those players. Also looks great off the ground (as you'd expect, form a soccer convert.) May be a handy Gunston replacement. Do you have an opinion on him, Wall-E? Or any other poster, for that matter?

As you said, he reads the flight of the ball very well. He's very new to footy, has a solid pair of hands but has to increase his attack at the ariel contest as his 'presence' needs to be felt a bit more.

He needs to develop a left foot and work out how to play outside the 50.

Though he tested very slow an unagile, as he's on his toes a lot and reads the flight well, it doesn't show as much.

Very much a project with his body size, endurance levels and game understanding. Anywhere from 25 to 55.

 

[Dandy_GO]

Interesting. Thanks!

 

[Drummond]

Want Forster.

That is all.

I know nothing about this draft. Nothing.

 

[AdelaideFan14]

Looking forward to tonight. Will be very interesting. Would everyone agree that Patton, Wingard, Tyson, Will Hoskin-Elliot, Buntine, Kavanagh, Ellis, Longer, Sumner, Greene, Mitchell, Coniglio, Tomlinson, Kersten,T.Adams, D. Smith, Markworth, Crozier, Kerridge (?), C. Smith (?), Elton(?) all appear to be taken before us. Any disagreements there?

My Best Guess
27 - Kerridge
41 - Schade
46 - Webster
64 - Pfieffer

What I Want (Within Reason Somewhat)
27 - Kerridge
41 - Yeo
46 - Schade
64 - Dalgeish

 

[BACCS]

Watched the draft closely last year due to a mate getting drafted, but have no idea about this year's pool (besides the obvious ones like Patton, Congilio etc). Sounds like we'll get something decent at 27 though, if reports are correct... Also think we will use our last pick on a mature age'r instead of saving it for the PSD, it seems to be the way Rendell is leaning.

 

[Bockchoy67]

Looking forward to tonight. Will be very interesting. Would everyone agree that Patton, Wingard, Tyson, Will Hoskin-Elliot, Buntine, Kavanagh, Ellis, Longer, Sumner, Greene, Mitchell, Coniglio, Tomlinson, Kersten,T.Adams, D. Smith, Markworth, Crozier, Kerridge (?), C. Smith (?), Elton(?) all appear to be taken before us. Any disagreements there?

There are always variables in a draft, but most of those are certainties to go before our pick. The only ones who could make it to 27, in that list, are Kersten, Kerridge, C.Smith and Elton.

Spoiler

and crozier plzkthxbai

 

[Dandy_GO]

I still want Spurr. He's still got several years left in him, and I'm convinced he'd be in our first 22 from round 1. Plus, we need a bloke who takes regular hangers. Last year was the first season since our inception where we didn't have a bloke who was known for taking massive grabs on our list. Spurr isn't on Modra or Burton's level, but he does love a huge mark from time to time.

Although, since we've picked up Brown, I think we're far less likely to look at Spurr, unfortunately. That small/medium utility type is less of a priority than some other areas right now.

 

[amer]

Walker doesn't count. He was signed by Fantasia and was taken with our last selection in the ND due to the fact that he was a NSW Scholarship holder.

So far Sloane is Rendell's only success in the 30+ range.

Failures include Kite, Jacky, Cook, Young, Armstrong, Lee & Craig. The jury is still out on Shaw & Lyons.

Jacky was wound up for other reasons. Young will make it should he get his body right, Armstrong's career will go on at Sydney. James Craig... again depends on his body. Should one of Shaw/Lyons make it he's done a good job identifying AFL standard footballers, which is what's required in that range, to class it a reasonable success rate. Percentages in today's draft environment say stars are tough to nab beyond pick 30.

 

[Drummond]

Huddo hosting, interesting. Didn't know he was anything to do with Fox.

Oh hang on, welcoming him to Fox in 2012?? Is he signed up or something??

 

[Hank93]

I knew there would be irrelevant chatter.

 

[amer]

And besides all that, Rendell's gunned it in the rookie draft.

 

[JP Sauce]

Hey Andy D, no one cares.

 

[amer]

Pick 27 - T Walker Jnr.

 

[Paladin]

I REALLY REALLY want Spurr but we are no chance with #64 Dogs or Saints will grab him way before then. Pay up Matty R

 

[Hank93]

Liam Sumner Pick 10.