Preview 2015 Grand Final: Hawthorn v West Coast Eagles - Gunston IN, Hartung OUT

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excuse the instruse, and good luck next Saturday.

just a quick question; if Hawthorn pull off the three-peat, how many of their players will have played in four premierships?
7?
Roughead
Rioli
Hodge
Mitchell
Lewis
Burgoyne
Birchall
?

Thats ot, and another nine or so sitting on two
 
WC backline are all fairly quick which allows them to help each other out with McGovern floating to all the high balls to take marks. Teams are aware of this and try to use the wide flanks and pockets to stretch their 'team defense' (like a zone in Basketball'. But what do you have less of at Domain? Width.
Wellingham, Shepherd, Hurn and even X, all use their speed to help out so Clarko and the selectors have a huge decision to make if Gunner is fit. Schoenmakers is not that quick but in dry still conditions marks might just stick if we use the full width and those undersized eagles defenders can't get to as many wide kicks.
 
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It's been briefly mentioned before, but the fact that the Boo!gles have only played once on the MCG is really significant. We've seen the effect of poor kicking in vital games before - Port last year, Fremantle in 2013, us in 2012. The Boo!gles have also had a habit of spraying shots at goal all year as they've kicked scores like 16.24, 16.18 & most tellingly 11.17 against Gold Coast. Yes, they get a lot of shot on goals, but a scatter-gun approach won't work next Saturday.
 
Just checked my bank balance, $180.00 mysteriously disappeared :D. 2 successful ballots in 2 years! The $180 seats are probablythe restricted view ones but I don't even care.
Pretty sure restricted view and standing room are ~$150. I've always been in the $180 seats and they're up with the gods but the view is unrestricted.
 
Wellingham was mentioned in the best but the amount of hard stuff he shirks is crazy.

Priddus plays for us and hes off to box hill with langers to learn to kick.
I hope he plays because they were much cleaner as a team without him
The one game i watched Wellingham play this year was against us a couple of weeks ago and his tackling was unbelievably super strong, our boys need to bring that part of the game to the table next week to challenge the eagles mids physically.
 
Last few years it really has been the Hawks v AFL.
Finals in the last few years for Hawthorn has basically been v interstaters. Apart from Geelong every final has been either Sydney, Crows, Port, Freo and Eagles since 2012.

2012 - Crows and Swans,
2013 - Swans and Freo,
2014 - Power and Swans
2015 - Eagles, Crows, Freo and Eagles.

Any danger of a bit of a chop from a few fellow Vic's?
 
Last few years it really has been the Hawks v AFL.
Finals in the last few years for Hawthorn has basically been v interstaters. Apart from Geelong every final has been either Sydney, Crows, Port, Freo and Eagles since 2012.

2012 - Crows and Swans,
2013 - Swans and Freo,
2014 - Power and Swans
2015 - Eagles, Crows, Freo and Eagles.

Any danger of a bit of a chop from a few fellow Vic's?
We played the Pies in the QF in 2012, but still a valid observation. Had been thinking similar.
 
Two GFs between the teams at two different venues, how rare is that?
Carlton and Sth Melbourne played three GF's against each other, two at the G in 1907 and 1914 and one at Princess Park during WW2 in 1945. If there are others, they relate to WW2 -3 GF's at PP and 1 at the Junction Oval, or 1897-1901 at the Junction Oval, East Melbourne Cricket Ground and the Lake Oval.
 
It's been briefly mentioned before, but the fact that the Boo!gles have only played once on the MCG is really significant. We've seen the effect of poor kicking in vital games before - Port last year, Fremantle in 2013, us in 2012. The Boo!gles have also had a habit of spraying shots at goal all year as they've kicked scores like 16.24, 16.18 & most tellingly 11.17 against Gold Coast. Yes, they get a lot of shot on goals, but a scatter-gun approach won't work next Saturday.

Sydney 2012 played one game at the MCG other than the GF.
 
Changes from the SF loss:
1) MCG vs Subi: Huge ++ for the Hawks
2) Home vs Away: Huge ++ for the Hawks
3) GF vs SF: Moderate + for the Hawks, we have the experience
4) Week off: Huge ++ for WC
5) Form change: Huge +++ for Hawks (as Clarko noted in the post game, we looked slow because we turned the ball over and everyone was in the wrong place as a result - we are coming off a fair bit more pressure, so will not be so slow)

Nett effect, is that we should be a lot closer, and indeed the money is on a Hawthorn victory (60% probability of Hawthorn victory).

What could go wrong? The last two weeks have seen both Adelaide and Freo try to beat us without using the Richmond/Port/WC formula (almost 1:1 pressure on Hawthorn ball carrier and potential receiver). They lost the bet. Moreover, they failed to prepare us for WC using that formula. Mitigating this is that fact that the formula is harder to implement at the MCG than at Subi - that said, both Richmond and Port did it to us at the MCG, so it is possible.

Clarko and the coaches will not make stupid mistakes like starting with Frawley forward; lets hope they have a good plan to get us out of a hole if WC are implementing the 1:1 stuff. Only option I see is to run both Smith and Hill/Hartung to create +1 overlaps and run the ball out of defense, with Shoe/Gunner and rucks to accept the ball on the wings. Will then have to hold up play briefly to let everyone get forward. We are not going to be permitted 150 uncontested marks!
 

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Changes from the SF loss:
1) MCG vs Subi: Huge ++ for the Hawks
2) Home vs Away: Huge ++ for the Hawks
3) GF vs SF: Moderate + for the Hawks, we have the experience
4) Week off: Huge ++ for WC
5) Form change: Huge +++ for Hawks (as Clarko noted in the post game, we looked slow because we turned the ball over and everyone was in the wrong place as a result - we are coming off a fair bit more pressure, so will not be so slow)

Nett effect, is that we should be a lot closer, and indeed the money is on a Hawthorn victory (60% probability of Hawthorn victory).

What could go wrong? The last two weeks have seen both Adelaide and Freo try to beat us without using the Richmond/Port/WC formula (almost 1:1 pressure on Hawthorn ball carrier and potential receiver). They lost the bet. Moreover, they failed to prepare us for WC using that formula. Mitigating this is that fact that the formula is harder to implement at the MCG than at Subi - that said, both Richmond and Port did it to us at the MCG, so it is possible.

Clarko and the coaches will not make stupid mistakes like starting with Frawley forward; lets hope they have a good plan to get us out of a hole if WC are implementing the 1:1 stuff. Only option I see is to run both Smith and Hill/Hartung to create +1 overlaps and run the ball out of defense, with Shoe/Gunner and rucks to accept the ball on the wings. Will then have to hold up play briefly to let everyone get forward. We are not going to be permitted 150 uncontested marks!

Agree with most of this, however we played Port at Etihad this year. If you're referring to the Prelim last year, Port didn't play that game style, they just rolled us with pace and overlap run at a time we had switched off.
 
How restricted is restricted?

The following identifies what each restriction is for each of the different bays - this only relates to specific rows and seats within the below listed bays. The restriction do not apply to the entire bay:

N54 - cameraman
N29 - corner edge of the southern stand N & P level
M28 - pillar
M56 & M57 - cameraman
Q49 - safety rail
Q28 - edge of southern stand
Q29 - safety rail
Q30 & Q31 - scoreboard
Q55
& Q56 - scoreboard
Q57 - safety rail
Q35 - safety rail

Most of the restrictions are nothing really... the bolded ones can be the most significant depending on which exact seat and row you have
 
Sydney 2012 played one game at the MCG other than the GF.
Yep, and 3 the previous year.

The Boo!gles played one this year, two last year. Sydney were finals experienced on the MCG. I don't believe the Boo!gles are.
 
I hope the coaches put a lot of planning this week into negating the Eagles quick transition skills. Their forwards (especially Darling and Kennedy) will run hard and fast all day as soon as they win a turnover which was definitely a factor in the earlier loss. I also thought Freo looked at their most dangerous when we turned the ball over and they moved it on quick.

The dimensions of the G help us with this, but the increased pressure of a GF
 
I hope the coaches put a lot of planning this week into negating the Eagles quick transition skills. Their forwards (especially Darling and Kennedy) will run hard and fast all day as soon as they win a turnover which was definitely a factor in the earlier loss. I also thought Freo looked at their most dangerous when we turned the ball over and they moved it on quick.

The dimensions of the G help us with this, but the increased pressure of a GF
will bring our disposal efficiency down.

Apologies for double post.....damn iPhones!
 
Lake will take the deepest forward so Sinclair or Nic Nat basically the resting ruckman

The only problem with that is West Coast don't like to rest their ruckman in the forward line. They prefer to keep their forwards mobile with Kennedy, darling, Cripps, Hill, and Le Cras. The only time the ruckman goes forward tends to be a slow play into the forward line. That was the problem we had in the qualifying final.
 
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