2017 Draft thread

[Nunez]

So that wouldn't be no matter where the pick lands then..

I'll bet you a case he won't be bid on before a first four likely consisting of Dow, Rayner, Cerra and LDU.

To rephrase, we will match any pick on Ballenden that is within the realms of possibility to actually happen.

 

[POBT]

We'd match the pies pick.

I really don't believe it is that certain. We are so far away from dealing in certainties for this draft.

Put it this way, the club was prepared to pass on Hipwood a couple of years ago if a bid came in too early.

 

[Nunez]

I really don't believe it is that certain. We are so far away from dealing in certainties for this draft.

Put it this way, the club was prepared to pass on Hipwood a couple of years ago if a bid came in too early.

It will be interesting to see where he is bid on, but still stand by my comments.

Yeah Hipwood was interesting. I don't believe anybody could have seen his rise as a forward. It's been incredible.

 

[jackess]

If Collingwood bid on Ballenden and we didn't match would we consider Brander if he was available at 12? Or another KPP? in the draft.

Might depend on how much we rate Payne

 

[briztoon]

If Collingwood bid on Ballenden and we didn't match would we consider Brander if he was available at 12? Or another KPP? in the draft.

Might depend on how much we rate Payne

Don't believe we would consider Brander at all.

The question you have to ask is, if we didn't have a highly rated KPP in our academy to match a bid on, what type of players would we look at with our first 3 picks.

 

[jackess]

Don't believe we would consider Brander at all.

The question you have to ask is, if we didn't have a highly rated KPP in our academy to match a bid on, what type of players would we look at with our first 3 picks.

Yep that's what I'm asking.

Close, Freeman and Hammer all look unlikely to make it. Who knows what will happen with Schache. Frost has struggled.

He might be too good to pass up at 12

 

[Hollow Knight]

Remember that Vidman guy who used to post here who basically had a complete psychotic breakdown because we kept drafting talls instead of mids?

Good times.

 

[blynd_freddie]

Current bargain of the phantom/mock rankings that I've seen, Jackson Ross?

Tallish mid/fwd at 190 odd, reads play well, good over-head and below knees, good for a goal or two and endurance seems okay.

 

[bungalow_bill]

Put it this way, the club was prepared to pass on Hipwood a couple of years ago if a bid came in too early.

This shows how much of a risk it is to pass on Ballenden.

 

[Panthera]

Is Jack Payne in thia years draft and when do we expect him to be bid on?

Wouldn't worry too much on an early bid. 50+

 

[Panthera]

This shows how much of a risk it is to pass on Ballenden.

We won't be passing on Ballenden - has power forward traits that you simply can't teach (as well as certain attributes that he needs to improve on).

Probably fits in that 15 - 25 bracket which works out well for us

 

[Crawb]

We also don't want to waste Pick 12 on a Hammelmann, Freeman or Bourke-type either however folks. Ballenden ain't a guaranteed prospects and neither was Hipwood.

The club will work out beforehand a specific point in the draft order where we won't match a bid as a contingency. Although given Ballenden is highly unlikely to be a top ten pick anyway the odds are we will match what is bid for Ballenden though ultimately, just as long it is realistic.

And any bid on him by another club will be realistic, because clubs aren't silly. Collingwood aren't going to use Pick #6 on Ballenden for example or any other club either that early on. A Collingwood fan/some flog on Bigfooty might if they were in charge of their drafting to spite us, but clubs are run by professionals (mostly...) and only hurting themselves more by bidding way earlier than they otherwise rate a player. Ballenden is a late first rounder/early second pick at this stage. He is a fair prospect, but nothing outstanding, much like a lot of his form this year.

And even if Ballenden rises for some reason, I suspect the club will look at packaging Picks 12 & 18 together so we can move up the draft order to get ahead of any bid. It's going to work out fine. Club has done well in securing appropriate talent in last few years and let talent go when appropriate (Declan Watson).

 

[POBT]

And any bid on him by another club will be realistic, because clubs aren't silly. Collingwood aren't going to use Pick #6 on Ballenden for example or any other club either that early on. A Collingwood fan/some flog on Bigfooty might if they were in charge of their drafting to spite us, but clubs are run by professionals (mostly...) and only hurting themselves more by bidding way earlier than they otherwise rate a player. Ballenden is a late first rounder/early second pick at this stage. He is a fair prospect, but nothing outstanding, much like a lot of his form this year.

Agree with almost everything you said but, just as I believe we can't rule out the Lions passing up on Ballenden if a bid comes in too early, I also don't think we should rule out a club taking a shine to him and bidding earlier. Ballenden seems to be really splitting opinions right now and it only takes one club to bite earlier than the others. The consensus view goes out the window when clubs start picking.

In any event, it doesn't appear to me that there is a consensus view on the pecking order among the tall prospects from this year's draft. I honestly believe a bid anywhere between pick 5 and 20 is a possibility although I certainly concede the likelihood is towards the lower end of that scale.

 

[Crawb]

Agree with almost everything you said but, just as I believe we can't rule out the Lions passing up on Ballenden if a bid comes in too early, I also don't think we should rule out a club taking a shine to him and bidding earlier. Ballenden seems to be really splitting opinions right now and it only takes one club to bite earlier than the others. The consensus view goes out the window when clubs start picking.

In any event, it doesn't appear to me that there is a consensus view on the pecking order among the tall prospects from this year's draft. I honestly believe a bid anywhere between pick 5 and 20 is a possibility although I certainly concede the likelihood is towards the lower end of that scale.

Oh totally. Like I said the club will be prepared for the worst-case scenario on the night and have a pre-determined point where we'll let Ballenden go because we're professionals and will make contingencies. But it is so unlikely at this stage and even if starts to become likely the club will take action at the trade table to better suit us for that scenario of an early bid.

 

[Leuy LongerCombo]

I really don't believe it is that certain. We are so far away from dealing in certainties for this draft.

Put it this way, the club was prepared to pass on Hipwood a couple of years ago if a bid came in too early.

I find the Hipwood part interesting, we made or intentions pretty clear by trading out picks 17,21 and 26 prior to the draft. Would be hard to pass on him even if we viewed the bid as over paying, considering the alternative would have been drafting with multiple picks in the late 30s.

Could be a different scenario with Ballenden as you've mentioned, if a bid comes in just before the Port selection, we can directly compare the talent thats available, then decide if addressing needs is more beneficial.

 

[Flea_29]

Oh totally. Like I said the club will be prepared for the worst-case scenario on the night and have a pre-determined point where we'll let Ballenden go because we're professionals and will make contingencies. But it is so unlikely at this stage and even if starts to become likely the club will take action at the trade table to better suit us for that scenario of an early bid.

I can't see us matching an early bid for Ballenden. If say Collingwood do bid with pick 6, then according to my maths, this would mean that we will need to come up with 1401 points (after discount). We will therefore need to use pick 12 and have our pick 18 slide down to pick 22.
Does the club believe that Ballenden is worth the equivalent of pick 10 (1401 points)? I think not.

Personally, I think Collingwood has more to lose if they use pick 6 on a player that many people in the know have him ranked just inside/outside the top 20.

 

[briztoon]

https://twitter.com/afldraftcentral

The last couple of minutes is interesting.

 

[trikster]

https://twitter.com/afldraftcentral
The last couple of minutes is interesting.

I think you got the link wrong, it's to their account not a video (which I assume is what you meant it to be?)

 

[JasperBeardly]

I think you got the link wrong, it's to their account not a video (which I assume is what you meant it to be?)

There's a draft podcast which might be what they were referring to?

 

[briztoon]

I think you got the link wrong, it's to their account not a video (which I assume is what you meant it to be?)

There's a draft podcast which might be what they were referring to?

My bad. Take 2.

 

[trikster]

My bad. Take 2.

With LDU's good game on the weekend, coupled with Dow/Rayner being out injured, phantom drafts will likely be even more all over the place this year.

 

[Ruse]

Remember that Vidman guy who used to post here who basically had a complete psychotic breakdown because we kept drafting talls instead of mids?

Good times.

Yeah? Lol?

 

[Hollow Knight]

What does Ballenden actually project as now? A few promising games in the championships down back doesn't make him a defender yet. Is he still projecting as a raw ruck who can go forward?

If so, he just doesn't seem like the sort of player who you would burn pick 5-6 on. He's the perfect academy player really because you get them for a discount and then can afford to develop them slowly.

I'm reasonably confident pick 12 will remain live, but we'll get a better feel come trade week if Noble starts making noise about moving up.

 

[Fatcat08]

I'll bet you a case he won't be bid on before a first four likely consisting of Dow, Rayner, Cerra and LDU.

To rephrase, we will match any pick on Ballenden that is within the realms of possibility to actually happen.

Now you're just shifting the point. I don't think he'd be before those either, but if he was I highly doubt we'd be matching, which was the crux of your original point

 

[Nunez]

Now you're just shifting the point. I don't think he'd be before those either, but if he was I highly doubt we'd be matching, which was the crux of your original point

Alright. Once again to rephrase, we will likely match any non top 5 pick bid on Ballenden.