List Mgmt. 2017 Trade & FA Targets Part 2

[Yawkey way]

Hang on. If you say there is a 50% strike rate. (I'd argue more these days but for arguments sake). That means there is a 3 in 4 chance of getting at least 1 200 game star. Also possible would be getting 2 of them at only 1 in 4 odds. If I was a betting man I'd take our picks to the draft...

Is that right? 2 picks each event an individual and seperate event with a 50% success rate.

I'll take your word for it, seems rather high to me but I'm no expert.

Based on that we are really lousy at drafting players.

 

[Yawkey way]

Milan Faletic (pathetic faletic) is my nomination for worst St.Kilda player to ever grace the Moorabbin turf.

I've seen a lot worse, he was a gun in south Australia he came to the saints at 28 played about two years and went home.

Catchy name though, I remember him quite well he kicked a few goals for us.

 

[Yawkey way]

They said prior to the game tonight that Zac Jones is a cert to stay at Sydney. Just a formality.

It may just be that with every club having that extra 20% bigger salary cap next year there won't be anywhere near as many leaving their clubs as there otherwise would have been.

The main exceptions might be those leaving for more opportunity, or because they're homesick, or want to play with their former housemate.

It could turn out to be a hard year to shake talent loose.

I hear some people saying every players contract will rise in line with the increase, which sounds improbable. Then others have the bucket of cash to throw around approach.

I guess it depends on the individual players contract, how many you have out of contract etc.

 

[plugger66]

Hang on. If you say there is a 50% strike rate. (I'd argue more these days but for arguments sake). That means there is a 3 in 4 chance of getting at least 1 200 game star. Also possible would be getting 2 of them at only 1 in 4 odds. If I was a betting man I'd take our picks to the draft...

Don't think your maths is that good. One in two is 50%. 3 in 4 is 75%. I would think it's less than 50% anyway. Probably 20%. I suppose you need to work out definition of a star. Our last 5 top 10 picks at the moment have produced no stars so we are batting at zero percent


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[saintscott]

Don't think your maths is that good. One in two is 50%. 3 in 4 is 75%. I would think it's less than 50% anyway. Probably 20%. I suppose you need to work out definition of a star. Our last 5 top 10 picks at the moment have produced no stars so we are batting at zero percent


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The math thing stumped me at first too, but i get it now based on 50% probability. Like you though i think 50% is a bit high. Possibly for good 22 players but stars are more like 20%.

 

[Yawkey way]

The math thing stumped me at first too, but i get it now based on 50% probability. Like you though i think 50% is a bit high. Possibly for good 22 players but stars are more like 20%.

Just asked my son still waking up but qualified to answer, yes crusty is right based on probability.

Different result depending on how you approach the problem I'm thinking like a roulette spin red or black 50%.

Yes for a champion not just a 200 game solid servant it would be much lower, don't see too many nick riewoldts.

 

[Winmar2Lockett]

Pies weren't AS desperate as we are. Pies, because of the whole 'playing for collingwood aura', would find it much easier keeping players who nominate them from reconsidering. We don't have that luxury to drag trades out too much (playing hardball) without nominees getting worried and reconsidering...see jake.

Kelly isn't a cherry, he's the bloody eggs!
A grade midfielder!

I'm not sure how you get the impression that the Pies weren't desperate for Treloar mate... they had the Tigers doing their best to usurp the deal, St Kilda were sniffing around because the deal went until the last day of trade period & he was their priority deal for that off season.

They fully believed that he would put them back into contention... I'm not too sure how more desperate you could be! (Well maybe not Hawks/JOM desperate!)


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[The_Steadier]

I'm not sure how you get the impression that the Pies weren't desperate for Treloar mate... they had the Tigers doing their best to usurp the deal, St Kilda were sniffing around because the deal went until the last day of trade period & he was their priority deal for that off season.

They fully believed that he would put them back into contention... I'm not too sure how more desperate you could be! (Well maybe not Hawks/JOM desperate!)


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For the third time.

AS desperate.

We tried our asses off last year trying to land an A grade mid, and didn't get one.

If we do the same again this year (with next years FA cupboard already bare), we are looking at 3 years of trying and failing to get the kind of key player we need.

Plus next year we wont have the massive advantage of having 3 first rounders in our back pocket.

That is why we are more desperate for a big fish than the pies were for treloar.

 

[Periphery]

IMO we are no more desperate compared to any team looking to attract a top end player to help them win a flag.

 

[Sainterz12]

Article on the AFL website with Mav Weller being interviewed.

His younger brother Lachie is showing exciting form for Fremantle and although the Docker is signed at the club until the end of 2018, Mac is holding out hope the pair can play together.

"It would be a dream come true, it would be great. Just like old times in the backyard," Weller said.

"A lot of water's got to go under the bridge for that to happen. He's going really well.

"The family's super-proud of him, and you never know what's going to happen."

Lachie to Saints for a 4th rounder permanent marker it in


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[saintbill]

Don't think your maths is that good. One in two is 50%. 3 in 4 is 75%. I would think it's less than 50% anyway. Probably 20%. I suppose you need to work out definition of a star. Our last 5 top 10 picks at the moment have produced no stars so we are batting at zero percent


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CrustyUndies is correct.

You have 2 random coin tosses. There are only 4 possible sequences that can occur:

HH
HT
TH
TT

From these we can observe that in at least 3 scenarios we flip a head (or land a gun player in this case). In other words a 75% chance. We have 1 scenario where we land 2 guns (a 25% chance), and 1 scenario where we also land 2 spuds (also a 25% chance).

Even if you drop the underlying assumption to 20% chance of landing a star per crack at it, the sum of the first 3 options is still 36% chance of securing a gun. So effectively better than 1 in 3 chance. Not amazing, but hardly a long shot.

 

[gringo2011]

Don't think your maths is that good. One in two is 50%. 3 in 4 is 75%. I would think it's less than 50% anyway. Probably 20%. I suppose you need to work out definition of a star. Our last 5 top 10 picks at the moment have produced no stars so we are batting at zero percent


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Richmond and Melbourne had the same issue for ages. Eventually the law of averages lets up on you and you pluck one.

 

[gringo2011]

CrustyUndies is correct.

You have 2 random coin tosses. There are only 4 possible sequences that can occur:

HH
HT
TH
TT

From these we can observe that in at least 3 scenarios we flip a head (or land a gun player in this case). In other words a 75% chance. We have 1 scenario where we land 2 guns (a 25% chance), and 1 scenario where we also land 2 spuds (also a 25% chance).

Even if you drop the underlying assumption to 20% chance of landing a star per crack at it, the sum of the first 3 options is still 36% chance of securing a gun. So effectively better than 1 in 3 chance. Not amazing, but hardly a long shot.

Because of the randomness of talent in particular drafts it throws up anomalies though. Some years like the 2013 draft had about 4 ordinary players in the first 30 picks. 2 more have been unable to play due to injury so it could have been an even better draft (Scharenberg and Freeman). Other years there are 3 good players who are up to a high standard. It definitely limits the likelihood of superstars coming your way.

 

[VDS66]

No not at all. The Tigers will just target someone else. Also they are in their window now and so really need someone ready to play in 2018. Schache will not be ready for several years. So say Gunston from the Hawks by trade, or Casboult who is an Unrestricted Free Agent and so is only $$$ to acquire would both be options.

Who knows maybe even Tippet as the Swans need to offload him. I would not go there, but the Tigers might.

Out: Vickery

In: Casboult.

What a master stroke that would be...

 

[VDS66]

Article on the AFL website with Mav Weller being interviewed.

His younger brother Lachie is showing exciting form for Fremantle and although the Docker is signed at the club until the end of 2018, Mac is holding out hope the pair can play together.

"It would be a dream come true, it would be great. Just like old times in the backyard," Weller said.

"A lot of water's got to go under the bridge for that to happen. He's going really well.

"The family's super-proud of him, and you never know what's going to happen."

Lachie to Saints for a 4th rounder permanent marker it in


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Mav looks awesome in Purple...

 

[gringo2011]

Out: Vickery

In: Casboult.

What a master stroke that would be...

Casboult has come good this year, he actually converts his goals.

 

[Ceanag]

I firmly believe and hope JK will end up a North player but thats another story. Snake_Baker is a horrendously protective poster who cannot have any reasonable debate, even on the North board. blokes an absolute nutcase. Thinks he's the mouthpiece for all north fans on bigfooty and flying the flag when infact he continually makes himself look like a knob.

You're going to be popular over there when his lackeys report back on your comments ...

 

[StCicatriz]

I firmly believe and hope JK will end up a North player but thats another story. Snake_Baker is a horrendously protective poster who cannot have any reasonable debate, even on the North board. blokes an absolute nutcase. Thinks he's the mouthpiece for all north fans on bigfooty and flying the flag when infact he continually makes himself look like a knob.

please tell me he's 14, if not wow. just assumed he had the maturity of a high schooler

 

[Winmar2Lockett]

For the third time.

AS desperate.

We tried our asses off last year trying to land an A grade mid, and didn't get one.

If we do the same again this year (with next years FA cupboard already bare), we are looking at 3 years of trying and failing to get the kind of key player we need.

Plus next year we wont have the massive advantage of having 3 first rounders in our back pocket.

That is why we are more desperate for a big fish than the pies were for treloar.

What A grade mid did we try our arses off for last year?


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[Joffaboy]

I firmly believe and hope JK will end up a North player but thats another story. Snake_Baker is a horrendously protective poster who cannot have any reasonable debate, even on the North board. blokes an absolute nutcase. Thinks he's the mouthpiece for all north fans on bigfooty and flying the flag when infact he continually makes himself look like a knob.

Our ITK'S tell us Kelly has rejected norfs offer and will either remain at GWS or leave for St.Kilda.

Take that back to your insecure little board.

 

[Brains Trust66]

I read online somewhere yesterday that Billings is sure he will stay a Saint , just waiting for the Saints and his management to get together . Initially he wanted to see what the new pay scheme was going to be before he signed.


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[saintkildaman]

Our ITK'S tell us Kelly has rejected norfs offer and will either remain at GWS or leave for St.Kilda.

Take that back to your insecure little board.

Just like how Fyfe was done and everyone in the footy world knew it? Not having a crack at our ITK's as they have a solid enough hit rate but the amount of smoke screens/rumours going around at the moment means I wouldn't believe anything at this stage. With that money offered I'm still confident North will come very close to acquiring Jelly.

 

[Moorabbin Ghost]

For the third time.

AS desperate.

We tried our asses off last year trying to land an A grade mid, and didn't get one.

If we do the same again this year (with next years FA cupboard already bare), we are looking at 3 years of trying and failing to get the kind of key player we need.

Plus next year we wont have the massive advantage of having 3 first rounders in our back pocket.

That is why we are more desperate for a big fish than the pies were for treloar.

We will get our big fish.

 

[Moorabbin Ghost]

I firmly believe and hope JK will end up a North player but thats another story. Snake_Baker is a horrendously protective poster who cannot have any reasonable debate, even on the North board. blokes an absolute nutcase. Thinks he's the mouthpiece for all north fans on bigfooty and flying the flag when infact he continually makes himself look like a knob.

...says the bloke who tagged me and attacked my credibility on your board. My crime? Saying that I believed IF Kelly leaves it will be to St Kilda.

 

[PrinceofSeaford]

We will get our big fish.

why you do this