Analysis 2018 List Management discussion Pt 2

[therubbernub]

I am actually. Think he would be a good third tall forward option for us.

How is he defensively? An eye catching jack in the box type, and that is all well and good, but modern footy requires the forward to help lock it in.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

Awkward?

A guy that runs all day, finds the ball at will, is a regular best in most games he plays and is captain material is somehow awkward?
Maybe you're seeing O'Rourke here instead of Kelly here. Walsh is no O'Rourke.

Your knocks on Walsh sound very similar to the knocks on LDU last year, and so far LDU still has big question marks as to if he will make it at AFL level.

 

[therubbernub]

Straight from the horses mouth but okay

open mike interview?

 

[jd2010]

open mike interview?

Yeah. And on radio he has said it too

 

[Arr0w]

Good for us and the lions, not sure about the Giants in the short term.

Short term is not as bad as you think.

If he left next year as a FA, GWS would have pick 9 this year and if they finish in the 8 next year, they would say have pick 14 + the Shiel comp pick 15

If Shiel wanted out this year and that deal went through

Lions lose pick 2, 38 - Gain pick 9, 43, Lobb
GWS lose pick 9, 43, Shiel, Lobb, 2019 1st - Gain pick 1, 26, 38, Carton 2019 1st,
Carlton lose pick 1, 26, 2019 1st- Gain Shiel, pick 2, GWS 2019 1st

They improve pick 9 to pick 1 this year. Next year would have, say 7 + 26 for 14 + 15

By having pick 1 this year, they select either the potential best KPF or MID. They still have ample backup in the ruck, Simpson, Keffe, even Patton could do some ruck work. They could even add Lycett as a FA. Shiel will be a loss, but if they know they will lose him next year, why not capitalise now

Short term doesn't look to bad to me

Personally, I would rather wait to pick him up as a FA next year

 

[therubbernub]

Also documented in judds book hmmm

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pfft- what would he know!

 

[gbatman]

I think Bolts will want to drive a winning culture through the list so if there are games available for taking we will be doing everything to win them, I also think SOS would much rather not have the pressure of having the #1 pick, especially if Lukosious is so heavily spruiked and doesnt quite fit our needs, but the pressure to take him will seem overwhelming with every keyboard recruiter and so called draft expert claiming he is the best they have ever seen, skip him and you could end up with egg all over your face and reputation ruined.. But if we dont have #1 we dont have the pressure.

Recruiting is far from an exact science, even in the NBA where many more resources are spent they can get it wrong.. Last year Philly took Fultz at #1, was a generational player, easily best in the draft.. it already looks a bust yet pick #2 Lonzo Ball has question marks, but pick #3 Jayson Tatum is already a star

I think Bolton will be trying to win, no sure on SOS. Doubt very much the pressure would be an issue at all. I think the top 7 or 8, even top 10 picks are much of a muchness really which is why I'd like to trade pick one for more picks. SOS would not care even in the slightest what fans and keyboard warriors think.

Drafting is definitely more accurate than it was 20 years ago but this is true. You can draft on talent alone and you get talent but the player might lack the toughness and desire to make it. They do a lot of interviewing and talking with families these days to get a grasp on personalities and we have gone for players who have a competitive streak which is good.

I would back us in to use our draft picks in the best way possible and our recruiters must look at this the same way, it's the only way forward.

In fact I'd hammer this draft. Try and bring in next years pick into this draft with a little trade. Try and turn pick one if it's ours into two really good picks etc.

 

[therubbernub]

Was going to say the same thing, we are Melbourne of 2013 right now with arguably better top-end talent but also with more rubbish at the bottom.

Junk in the Trunk?

 

[therubbernub]

Yes but Lukosious and Charlie play almost exactly the same role, and Mckay, Kerr, & Casboult play a similar role, then throw in DeKonig, BSOS. We simply can not carry that many tall forwards on our list.. If and I am still not sold that Lukosious is that good, but if he is close to what is being spruiked then i think a forward like of Charlie, Lukosios and then supplemented by Kerr, Dekonig and who ever else we draft over the next few years will be extremly potent.

Its just a matter of fact that right now we do not have a need for another tall forward, however if Lukosios can not be passed on IMO we should try and cash in on Harry and use him as a means to get the midfielders we desperately need..

For hypothetical sakes, lets say McKay for Norths 2019 1st round pick + some change was able to land us Dylan Shiel.. Who would complain?

They had charlies heat map shown for the collingwood game (below) . I would suggest that Lukosius would play a similar role to charlie. Namely he would play a lot on the wings acting as a conduit into our forward line. In other words, he would be part of our midfield, a link man, able to run and carry and with his elite disposal and footy IQ. Invaluable. I do not anticipate the huge marks from Lukosius like charlie, but he would definitely need a really fit defender that plays tall to go with him, as his height and marking is still very good. There are not too many opposition teams that could find two such players that could effectively go with Charlie and Jack. That also means that we become much more unpredictable when transitioning from the back line, having Charlie on one wing and Lukosius on the other , both with deadly long kicks into the F50. If we use charlie's wing , Jack could drift forward and vice versa

 

[therubbernub]

It shits me as well.
Problem is the AFL is a Mickey Mouse competition, what should be happening is that players get there free agency & clubs get to trade whoever they want, where ever they want to. It’s bullshit that the players get to dictate terms so much, it’s a job. All parties need to be way more cutthroat, it would make it all a lot easier & cleaner.

yeah but boof head wants the AFL to be a nice polite family game where such cut-throat tactics are frowned upon.

 

[therubbernub]

A forward line that includes C Curnow, Lukosius & McKay will win games with 30 forward entries.

Charlie and Jack will be doing much of the forward entry work themselves

 

[therubbernub]

I agree but the ball will never get down their end of the ground

It would if they both played high half forward/wing

 

[jd2010]

I think if we do end up with the 4 tall forwards it'll be similar to what the Crows did last year.

Lynch (outside 50 link man) - Lukoscious
Walker (inside 50 contested mark + link man at times) - Curnow
McGovern (inside 50 contest mark) - Kerr/BSOS/Casboult (wishfully thinking McGovern does the role for us himself)
Jenkins (inside 30 Joe the goose + backup ruck) - McKay

 

[Faz 2000]

I hope we're not so Lukosiussed that we'll be devastated if our team actually gets up and wins a few in the back half of the year!

We'll have an early pick. We'll get someone good. We'll get something that'll help.

And the youngsters in our team will get a lot out of a few wins, too.

 

[thylacine60]

Lukosius is not just a forward. These super mobile, super fit, tall players are utility gold.

et tu, nubster?

 

[thylacine60]

I hope we're not so Lukosiussed that we'll be devastated if our team actually gets up and wins a few in the back half of the year!

We'll have an early pick. We'll get someone good. We'll get something that'll help.

And the youngsters in our team will get a lot out of a few wins, too.

 

[jd2010]

I hope we're not so Lukosiussed that we'll be devastated if our team actually gets up and wins a few in the back half of the year!

We'll have an early pick. We'll get someone good. We'll get something that'll help.

And the youngsters in our team will get a lot out of a few wins, too.

Yep. I want to win games so we have no pressure to have to take him and we get Walsh instead!

 

[Juddernaut08]

I think if we do end up with the 4 tall forwards it'll be similar to what the Crows did last year.

Lynch (outside 50 link man) - Lukoscious
Walker (inside 50 contested mark + link man at times) - Curnow
McGovern (inside 50 contest mark) - Kerr/BSOS/Casboult (wishfully thinking McGovern does the role for us himself)
Jenkins (inside 30 Joe the goose + backup ruck) - McKay

yuck!!!

 

[CJMB]

They had charlies heat map shown for the collingwood game (below) . I would suggest that Lukosius would play a similar role to charlie. Namely he would play a lot on the wings acting as a conduit into our forward line. In other words, he would be part of our midfield, a link man, able to run and carry and with his elite disposal and footy IQ. Invaluable. I do not anticipate the huge marks from Lukosius like charlie, but he would definitely need a really fit defender that plays tall to go with him, as his height and marking is still very good. There are not too many opposition teams that could find two such players that could effectively go with Charlie and Jack. That also means that we become much more unpredictable when transitioning from the back line, having Charlie on one wing and Lukosius on the other , both with deadly long kicks into the F50. If we use charlie's wing , Jack could drift forward and vice versa

View attachment 518719

Good post, that's how I see it too. Also have Harry as the FF, that gives a bit of a central forward focal point and allows some flexibility with the other two.

Potentially have Doc kick out to Charlie who clunks it, wheels around and sends it to Lukosius who's run into space on the wing and marks before delivering to Harry inside 50. The whole time this is happening there are players running in support, looking for the short offload to continue the momentum forward and putting doubt into any defenders minds. ie as Lukosius marks the kick from Charlie he's got Pickett running towards him to either crum the dropped mark or be an option to pass to instead of JL simply taking the kick, ball could enter 50 in hand or by foot.

 

[jd2010]

yuck!!!

If Teague could get that forward line working who knows what he could do for us. Personally I hope we don't finish last & if we do trade pick 1 for something a few picks back. Don't think we need another tall forward and I don't think Charlie should be assumed to be a gun midfielder in the making

 

[DangerousD]

Even if Shiel nominates us and we can't strike a deal (ie they demand pick #1 and we refuse to give it up) we can then target him next year for sure.

Adelaide ended paying more the second time around, I am convinced the Giants will match any offer (although they couldn’t afford to) to force a trade, which will force us to use picks anyway.

 

[DangerousD]

Hoping we're into Lycett in a big way as a FA. Spend overs to get him as Kreuz is one bad injury from retirement or serious decline.

I hreard Lycett is desperate to be number 1 ruck which contradicts him re signing atWC but would make a move to us unlikely.

 

[katmanblue]

We have Phillips and Lobbe

Oh joy.

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[jd2010]

Adelaide ended paying more the second time around, I am convinced the Giants will match any offer (although they couldn’t afford to) to force a trade, which will force us to use picks anyway.

they can only match it with an offer they can afford to fit under the cap

 

[Faz 2000]

Good post, that's how I see it too. Also have Harry as the FF, that gives a bit of a central forward focal point and allows some flexibility with the other two.

Potentially have Doc kick out to Charlie who clunks it, wheels around and sends it to Lukosius who's run into space on the wing and marks before delivering to Harry inside 50. The whole time this is happening there are players running in support, looking for the short offload to continue the momentum forward and putting doubt into any defenders minds. ie as Lukosius marks the kick from Charlie he's got Pickett running towards him to either crum the dropped mark or be an option to pass to instead of JL simply taking the kick, ball could enter 50 in hand or by foot.

I love these scenarios and you can absolutely imagine it.... BUT.... I think we can all get seduced into thinking about dream plays and one-off scenarios which sound tremendous. But the reality is we have to build a LIST that can play 120 minute games of footy 22 times (plus!) a year, and deal with all sorts of different opposition, varied tactics, changing conditions, specific venues. Assembling best 18s and best 22s that might execute a perfect play once is great and all, but it's not reality.

Regularly on here you get people casually saying "oh, so and so will kick 3 a week as a small forward" or something along those lines. The fact of the matter is, no he (whoever he is) won't. Nobody does. The best small forwards are going at 1.5-2 goals per week over any extended period. What we want is multiple guys CAPABLE of kicking 3-4 on their day. Or in all our dream scenarios "Cripps wins the clearance". Well, yes, he'll win a lot. Probably ~6-8 per game, on average. But our TEAM has to win 40-odd, so our list has to be capable of winning the other 30 that Cripps doesn't get.

We have a few absolute JETS in our team, not because of what they can do once, but the ongoing role/s they can play. As wonderful as Charlie was last week (and we was very wonderful), it was the fact that he beat his opponents in multiple ways, multiple times that was stunning. And that he got smashed in packs, then got up and did it again. Our plan moving forward is not how to make Charlie Curnow kick 4 goals a week - it's about how to create a successful squad and team, of which Charlie can no doubt play a massive role.

Not singling you out, CJMB, more just musing on what List Management truly is about in my mind. It's not about "Plan A", it's about a squad that can handle A, B, C and D.

Note: it's possible I make no sense.