Analysis 2018 List Management discussion Pt 2

[Blue_Fusion]

Adelaide ended paying more the second time around, I am convinced the Giants will match any offer (although they couldn’t afford to) to force a trade, which will force us to use picks anyway.

Nah we can't pay more than our first pick but we won't be doing that when he's a FA. There's no way GWS can match what we'll offer.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

Good post, that's how I see it too. Also have Harry as the FF, that gives a bit of a central forward focal point and allows some flexibility with the other two.

Potentially have Doc kick out to Charlie who clunks it, wheels around and sends it to Lukosius who's run into space on the wing and marks before delivering to Harry inside 50. The whole time this is happening there are players running in support, looking for the short offload to continue the momentum forward and putting doubt into any defenders minds. ie as Lukosius marks the kick from Charlie he's got Pickett running towards him to either crum the dropped mark or be an option to pass to instead of JL simply taking the kick, ball could enter 50 in hand or by foot.

Who needs a midfield...

 

[norway blue]

I love these scenarios and you can absolutely imagine it.... BUT.... I think we can all get seduced into thinking about dream plays and one-off scenarios which sound tremendous. But the reality is we have to build a LIST that can play 120 minute games of footy 22 times (plus!) a year, and deal with all sorts of different opposition, varied tactics, changing conditions, specific venues. Assembling best 18s and best 22s that might execute a perfect play once is great and all, but it's not reality.

Regularly on here you get people casually saying "oh, so and so will kick 3 a week as a small forward" or something along those lines. The fact of the matter is, no he (whoever he is) won't. Nobody does. The best small forwards are going at 1.5-2 goals per week over any extended period. What we want is multiple guys CAPABLE of kicking 3-4 on their day. Or in all our dream scenarios "Cripps wins the clearance". Well, yes, he'll win a lot. Probably ~6-8 per game, on average. But our TEAM has to win 40-odd, so our list has to be capable of winning the other 30 that Cripps doesn't get.

We have a few absolute JETS in our team, not because of what they can do once, but the ongoing role/s they can play. As wonderful as Charlie was last week (and we was very wonderful), it was the fact that he beat his opponents in multiple ways, multiple times that was stunning. And that he got smashed in packs, then got up and did it again. Our plan moving forward is not how to make Charlie Curnow kick 4 goals a week - it's about how to create a successful squad and team, of which Charlie can no doubt play a massive role.

Not singling you out, CJMB, more just musing on what List Management truly is about in my mind. It's not about "Plan A", it's about a squad that can handle A, B, C and D.

Note: it's possible I make no sense.

Great post . Go navy blues .


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[HereComesJuddy]

Who needs a midfield...

You say this like our reset is complete?

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

You say this like our reset is complete?

Well at the end of this draft according to Bolts and SOS blueprint of attacking the draft for 3 years then it should be set and all we are doing after is adding cream.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Well at the end of this draft according to Bolts and SOS blueprint of attacking the draft for 3 years then it should be set and all we are doing after is adding cream.

Correct. Adding the cream!
So adding 2 gun mids plus a few b graders over the next few years is the cream.
No one said we would have everything in place after 3 years. But we sure have a great foundation

 

[RudyBlue]

If Shiel genuinely wants to come to Carlton at the end of the year, and Carlton only, then I think we do the deal. The premium draft pick we have to pay could be offset by the lower salary we have to pay him. I'd prefer we get him as a FA, but you don't turn down a gun who genuinely wants to come (if he really does).

A number of other positive impacts from a Shiel recruitment:

-Energises the playing group
-Shows Cripps some love after all the love he's shown us
-Another leader into the mix
-Enhances the development of our young mids
-Piques the interest of other high profile players
-Brings memberships and soothes the impatient types

Ideally we keep pick 1-3 and use other currency, but then we're not really scratching GWS' back.

I like the idea, HARKER, of getting Setterfield as well. I feel our 2019 1st would need to be involved too though.

 

[HARKER]

How good, although unrealistic, would it be for GWS to accept our 2019 first?

That's not where they're at, but if SOS could pull that one off, he would be doing very, very well.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

Correct. Adding the cream!
So adding 2 gun mids plus a few b graders over the next few years is the cream.
No one said we would have everything in place after 3 years. But we sure have a great foundation

If we are looking at a premiership team for 2023, Cripps & Dow are the only locked in mids we could rely on coudl probably add Fisher to that so lets call it 3.. SPS maybe a mid, maybe not.. Kennedy might turn around and become part of the team. After that the cupboard is completely bare..

 

[Arr0w]

If Shiel genuinely wants to come to Carlton at the end of the year, and Carlton only, then I think we do the deal. The premium draft pick we have to pay could be offset by the lower salary we have to pay him. I'd prefer we get him as a FA, but you don't turn down a gun who genuinely wants to come (if he really does).

A number of other positive impacts from a Shiel recruitment:

-Energises the playing group
-Shows Cripps some love after all the love he's shown us
-Another leader into the mix
-Enhances the development of our young mids
-Piques the interest of other high profile players
-Brings memberships and soothes the impatient types

Ideally we keep pick 1-3 and use other currency, but then we're not really scratching GWS' back.

I like the idea, HARKER, of getting Setterfield as well. I feel our 2019 1st would need to be involved too though.

Solid post.

 

[Mr_Plow]

If Shiel genuinely wants to come to Carlton at the end of the year, and Carlton only, then I think we do the deal. The premium draft pick we have to pay could be offset by the lower salary we have to pay him. I'd prefer we get him as a FA, but you don't turn down a gun who genuinely wants to come (if he really does).

A number of other positive impacts from a Shiel recruitment:

-Energises the playing group
-Shows Cripps some love after all the love he's shown us
-Another leader into the mix
-Enhances the development of our young mids
-Piques the interest of other high profile players
-Brings memberships and soothes the impatient types

Ideally we keep pick 1-3 and use other currency, but then we're not really scratching GWS' back.

I like the idea, HARKER, of getting Setterfield as well. I feel our 2019 1st would need to be involved too though.

Shiel would be a great gym partner at the club.
Bloke is absolutely ****ing shredded.

Just another layer of professionalism for our young mids.

 

[RudyBlue]

Shiel would be a great gym partner at the club.

Bloke is absolutely ******* shredded.

Many intangibles to getting Shiel.

 

[RudyBlue]

How good, although unrealistic, would it be for GWS to accept our 2019 first?

That's not where they're at, but if SOS could pull that one off, he would be doing very, very well.

Would be over the moon but that would be negligent on GWS' behalf.

Knowing SOS, he'll be trading with other clubs to fortify our position, if any Shiel trade comes about.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

How good, although unrealistic, would it be for GWS to accept our 2019 first?

That's not where they're at, but if SOS could pull that one off, he would be doing very, very well.

Yeah i think unlikely, i actually think its unlikely GWS will let him go at all. They would and should genuinely think they are a chance for a premiership next year with all their players back from injury. Additionally another poor year from GWS will see Leon Cameron out of a job, so I would suggest they are going to load up and no chance they will be selling key assets that are contracted.

 

[katmanblue]

I love these scenarios and you can absolutely imagine it.... BUT.... I think we can all get seduced into thinking about dream plays and one-off scenarios which sound tremendous. But the reality is we have to build a LIST that can play 120 minute games of footy 22 times (plus!) a year, and deal with all sorts of different opposition, varied tactics, changing conditions, specific venues. Assembling best 18s and best 22s that might execute a perfect play once is great and all, but it's not reality.

Regularly on here you get people casually saying "oh, so and so will kick 3 a week as a small forward" or something along those lines. The fact of the matter is, no he (whoever he is) won't. Nobody does. The best small forwards are going at 1.5-2 goals per week over any extended period. What we want is multiple guys CAPABLE of kicking 3-4 on their day. Or in all our dream scenarios "Cripps wins the clearance". Well, yes, he'll win a lot. Probably ~6-8 per game, on average. But our TEAM has to win 40-odd, so our list has to be capable of winning the other 30 that Cripps doesn't get.

We have a few absolute JETS in our team, not because of what they can do once, but the ongoing role/s they can play. As wonderful as Charlie was last week (and we was very wonderful), it was the fact that he beat his opponents in multiple ways, multiple times that was stunning. And that he got smashed in packs, then got up and did it again. Our plan moving forward is not how to make Charlie Curnow kick 4 goals a week - it's about how to create a successful squad and team, of which Charlie can no doubt play a massive role.

Not singling you out, CJMB, more just musing on what List Management truly is about in my mind. It's not about "Plan A", it's about a squad that can handle A, B, C and D.

Note: it's possible I make no sense.

I'll allow it.


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[bigdog43]

I hope we're not so Lukosiussed that we'll be devastated if our team actually gets up and wins a few in the back half of the year!

We'll have an early pick. We'll get someone good. We'll get something that'll help.

And the youngsters in our team will get a lot out of a few wins, too.

Completely agree. We're at a point where wins are as important as a decent draft pick for the improvement of the overall football club. We were obsessed with Kreuz, the mobile ruck that was a fourth mid. We were obsessed with Murph the classy ball winner and obsessed with Gibbs, with stories coming out that there were games where his dad only allowed him to handball, he was simply that good. During that previous rebuild we jumped onto these elite talents expecting us to be taken to a flag while failing to nail other draft picks and other important areas of the football club.

I'm sick of being told how good Lukosius is, people said similar things about Weitering. Give me Sam Walsh or Bailey Smith or Riley Collier-Dawkins, I don't care, I just want them in a system that is on the up and refusing to accept losing as a genuine way forward.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

If we are looking at a premiership team for 2023, Cripps & Dow are the only locked in mids we could rely on coudl probably add Fisher to that so lets call it 3.. SPS maybe a mid, maybe not.. Kennedy might turn around and become part of the team. After that the cupboard is completely bare..

2023? I think we could win one in 2020 or 2021. Why couldn't we? If we took Gaff this year as a FA. brought in Lukosius at pick 1. Grab Lloyd with 22wb and Brodie with 24adel. Then others with later picks.

Play Cripps with more stints up forward next year. Let kennedy, Brodie, Dow, Fisher, O'Brien, Murphy, SPS, Gaff, Lang, Cuningham etc time to grow.

Bringing in Lloyd along with Docherty and Williamson will make life easier for our mids. Next year we aren't challenging for a premiership so why not stay the course.

Then at the end of next year go all in for Kelly. And take Shiel as a free agent. Our team will be chock full of talent. Game winners all over the park. Many of our kids will have 50+ games to their name.

So within 32 games we will have included Lukosius, Gaff, Kelly, Shiel, Docherty, Williamson, Lloyd, Brodie.

Nothing to complain about re our midfield if we go tjis way.

Theres a reason teams like geelong stay high on the ladder so long. They rebuilt correctly. Then they brought in a player here and there when it suited.

Im all for improving. And if we did what i have suggested, we would improve. Then adding kelly and Shiel at the end of next year would put us into a great position to challenge for a premiership for years to come. Charlie and Lukosius would be a handful for any team. And the days of not getting to 100 points will be long forgotten.

Just my thoughts on it

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

2023? I think we could win one in 2020 or 2021. Why couldn't we? If we took Gaff this year as a FA. brought in Lukosius at pick 1. Grab Lloyd with 22wb and Brodie with 24adel. Then others with later picks.

Play Cripps with more stints up forward next year. Let kennedy, Brodie, Dow, Fisher, O'Brien, Murphy, SPS, Gaff, Lang, Cuningham etc time to grow.

Bringing in Lloyd along with Docherty and Williamson will make life easier for our mids. Next year we aren't challenging for a premiership so why not stay the course.

Then at the end of next year go all in for Kelly. And take Shiel as a free agent. Our team will be chock full of talent. Game winners all over the park. Many of our kids will have 50+ games to their name.

So within 32 games we will have included Lukosius, Gaff, Kelly, Shiel, Docherty, Williamson, Lloyd, Brodie.

Nothing to complain about re our midfield if we go tjis way.

Theres a reason teams like geelong stay high on the ladder so long. They rebuilt correctly. Then they brought in a player here and there when it suited.

Im all for improving. And if we did what i have suggested, we would improve. Then adding kelly and Shiel at the end of next year would put us into a great position to challenge for a premiership for years to come. Charlie and Lukosius would be a handful for any team. And the days of not getting to 100 points will be long forgotten.

Just my thoughts on it

There is also this wonderful thing called a salary cap.. We have no doubt already overpaid to lock in Charlie, we will do so again with Cripps.. If we were to get Shiel he would be a 1mil a year + player.. Docherty will be looking for a payrise.. I love the little fantasy world you live in but can you please at least be semi realistic.

 

[juzza316]

2023? I think we could win one in 2020 or 2021. Why couldn't we? If we took Gaff this year as a FA. brought in Lukosius at pick 1. Grab Lloyd with 22wb and Brodie with 24adel. Then others with later picks.

Play Cripps with more stints up forward next year. Let kennedy, Brodie, Dow, Fisher, O'Brien, Murphy, SPS, Gaff, Lang, Cuningham etc time to grow.

Bringing in Lloyd along with Docherty and Williamson will make life easier for our mids. Next year we aren't challenging for a premiership so why not stay the course.

Then at the end of next year go all in for Kelly. And take Shiel as a free agent. Our team will be chock full of talent. Game winners all over the park. Many of our kids will have 50+ games to their name.

So within 32 games we will have included Lukosius, Gaff, Kelly, Shiel, Docherty, Williamson, Lloyd, Brodie.

Nothing to complain about re our midfield if we go tjis way.

Theres a reason teams like geelong stay high on the ladder so long. They rebuilt correctly. Then they brought in a player here and there when it suited.

Im all for improving. And if we did what i have suggested, we would improve. Then adding kelly and Shiel at the end of next year would put us into a great position to challenge for a premiership for years to come. Charlie and Lukosius would be a handful for any team. And the days of not getting to 100 points will be long forgotten.

Just my thoughts on it

So we are going to add Gaff, Lukosius, Lloyd, Shiel , Brodie and Kelly in the next 18 months? Its just not going to happen. Need to be realistic about what is achievable and what isn't.

 

[CJMB]

I love these scenarios and you can absolutely imagine it.... BUT.... I think we can all get seduced into thinking about dream plays and one-off scenarios which sound tremendous. But the reality is we have to build a LIST that can play 120 minute games of footy 22 times (plus!) a year, and deal with all sorts of different opposition, varied tactics, changing conditions, specific venues. Assembling best 18s and best 22s that might execute a perfect play once is great and all, but it's not reality.

Regularly on here you get people casually saying "oh, so and so will kick 3 a week as a small forward" or something along those lines. The fact of the matter is, no he (whoever he is) won't. Nobody does. The best small forwards are going at 1.5-2 goals per week over any extended period. What we want is multiple guys CAPABLE of kicking 3-4 on their day. Or in all our dream scenarios "Cripps wins the clearance". Well, yes, he'll win a lot. Probably ~6-8 per game, on average. But our TEAM has to win 40-odd, so our list has to be capable of winning the other 30 that Cripps doesn't get.

We have a few absolute JETS in our team, not because of what they can do once, but the ongoing role/s they can play. As wonderful as Charlie was last week (and we was very wonderful), it was the fact that he beat his opponents in multiple ways, multiple times that was stunning. And that he got smashed in packs, then got up and did it again. Our plan moving forward is not how to make Charlie Curnow kick 4 goals a week - it's about how to create a successful squad and team, of which Charlie can no doubt play a massive role.

Not singling you out, CJMB, more just musing on what List Management truly is about in my mind. It's not about "Plan A", it's about a squad that can handle A, B, C and D.

Note: it's possible I make no sense.

Yeah, I think you make sense and I agree with what you've said. I guess my comment and 'scenario' kind of ties in with that. I'm not expecting a hypothetical tall forward setup of Charlie, McKay and Lukosius to all kick their 2-4 goals each and in the same way I wouldn't expect all three of them to play as forwards leading in and around the 50. The idea was that having a couple of talls who are endurance athletes and can get around the ground to provide support when needed is appealing, more so if they can repeat the effort multiple times across the course of a game.

We want to build up a list of talented players who can run out the game and across the list feature a variety of required skills and ability. Inside bulls, athletic talls, outside players with sheer pace, the endurance athletes up and down the wing looking for space and overlap, the generals/playmakers, the shutdown roles down back and in the middle... and everything else I've forgotten to mention.

Ideally we're set up where there's a decent spread across responsibility too. If the opposition really focuses in on Cripps and he's getting double teamed constantly well that means Kennedy & Dow aren't getting much attention in the middle and hopefully between the core group of them our stoppage output remains the same. If Charlie has an off day, hopefully McKay, De Koning, Lukoisus (or whoever) steps up to take more of the load and we still function in that area. If one of our taller defenders is out for the week, don't stress too much because someone else will come in and contribute. If we're getting cut up by our opponent in one area hopefully we've got enough versatility through the match day 22 that changes can me made to combat that; Charlie onto the ball, Pickett closer to the action to try and beat congestion with leg speed, maybe Marchbank or Macreadie move more to the wing to diffuse long kicks to the ruckman/CHF, maybe even the old 'play Weitering as a forward' trick...

 

[chipzac]

Who needs a midfield...

Just tell the backs to kick it over the mids and straight to the forwards (bypass the mids altogether).
The direct method. Great idea ... can't believe no one thought of that before!

 

[HereComesJuddy]

There is also this wonderful thing called a salary cap.. We have no doubt already overpaid to lock in Charlie, we will do so again with Cripps.. If we were to get Shiel he would be a 1mil a year + player.. Docherty will be looking for a payrise.. I love the little fantasy world you live in but can you please at least be semi realistic.

Its not hard to pay players what they deserve into a cap. Charlie may get 2 mil next year. No issues after that for the remaining 4. Etc. And we didn't overpay for charlie. Not one bit.

List managers dont just say. 3.2 million over 4 and give 800k a year. They get creative.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

So we are going to add Gaff, Lukosius, Lloyd, Shiel , Brodie and Kelly in the next 18 months? Its just not going to happen. Need to be realistic about what is achievable and what isn't.

Why isnt it achievable? You will have no firm case to justify. And i dont have a firm case saying it will happen. But anything can happen in football.

 

[DangerousD]

yeah but boof head wants the AFL to be a nice polite family game where such cut-throat tactics are frowned upon.

Wouldn’t mind it with a few tweaks, a player could be traded by the club to another in the same state as not to disrupt their wives careers, family support, kids school and so on.

AFL players don’t make enough money to justify being shipped to another state and having to uproot your family against your will.

 

[DangerousD]

they can only match it with an offer they can afford to fit under the cap

Yes but how is that enforced or checked?

If we offer Shiel $1M and GWS match, they don’t need the room unless he stays, if the AFL checked I think there would be a wink wink nudge nudge from the Giants CEO but the Giants could easily say, if Dylan decided to stay we would be able to find that room by trading out others.

Am I making sense?

The whole set up is crap, out of the FA that have left their clubs I don’t think they left for more money.