Analysis 2018 List Management discussion Pt 2

[DangerousD]

particularly if Walsh continues to show up poorly as a power athlete.

Care to elaborate on this?

 

[Dadda Dave]

Gunna be hard not to win … when by a lot of reports Billings will rip off his jumper at half time to reveal the Navy Blue ….

Or kick 6 straight.like he usually does against us.

 

[Jimmae]

Care to elaborate on this?

Watch the bloke play: he's not a bulldozer. Might run all day, but I wouldn't call him explosive. Not quite an outside mid, not quite an inside mid, and not really a good mix of qualities to play around the stoppages either.

Makes him an awkward top 5 prospect for mine.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

It won't be him walking out. It would be a situation where it makes sense for all parties.

Yeah like I said, I'm not comfortable giving up a #1 pick (or 2 - 4) for a guy who's going to leave them next year anyway.

It's too much of a win for them and too much of a loss for us. They'll lose him next year if they don't trade him this year. So from their perspective, the #1 pick is a HUGE win for them. Meanwhile, we will have wasted an opportunity to add another gun kid to our list.

He is not going to adamantly want to come home this year. I'm near 100% certain of that.

Even if Shiel nominates us and we can't strike a deal (ie they demand pick #1 and we refuse to give it up) we can then target him next year for sure.

Look what happened with Adelaide and Gibbs. They waited a year and so did Gibbs. He didn't hold a grudge because they wouldn't trade their top picks for him.

We're living in a world where everyone is afraid to offend someone. No need for it.

If Shiel is smart, he'll wait till his contract is over. Why come to us now when he can come to us with another #1 pick on our list? Why would he inadvertently force us to have to give up some of our most precious commodities? At the end of the day, his best interests would be to make sure him leaving GWS benefits us and it will only serve to make his future team stronger. Plus, it's not like he'll be wasting a year of his career, GWS have a far stronger shot at the flag next year than we do.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Watch the bloke play: he's not a bulldozer. Might run all day, but I wouldn't call him explosive. Not quite an outside mid, not quite an inside mid, and not really a good mix of qualities to play around the stoppages either.

Makes him an awkward top 5 prospect for mine.

I had my doubts about Rankine wanting to stay in Vic and turns out that this is the case. He is doing a Fogarty.

So if we were to take a Vic mid, I'd go with Bailey Smith. He is a very physical type, goes in hard and his kicking skills are very good.

 

[Stamos]

Yeah like I said, I'm not comfortable giving up a #1 pick (or 2 - 4) for a guy who's going to leave them next year anyway.

That would only be part of the deal though, we'd be getting a lot more than just Shiel if we were parting with #1

 

[Blues_fest]

I had my doubts about Rankine wanting to stay in Vic and turns out that this is the case. He is doing a Fogarty.

So if we were to take a Vic mid, I'd go with Bailey Smith. He is a very physical type, goes in hard and his kicking skills are very good.

100% agree. Rankine is off everyone’s radar. I don’t believe for a second this is a coincidence.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Tushay]

Hoping we're into Lycett in a big way as a FA. Spend overs to get him as Kreuz is one bad injury from retirement or serious decline.

 

[Blue Viking]

It's very unlikely we get pick one - check out the draws as follows
Brisbane have- Freo, Us, Hawks, Crows, Cats, North, Pies, Suns, Eagles
We have - Port, Lions, Saints, Hawks, Sun, Giants, Freo, Doggies, Crows.
If we want pick one, we best be lining up against Lions with Crippa, Fish, Dow, Charlie, SPS, Simmo, all out with of the Flu or Gastro that week.

Brisbane have handled us easily over recent times and will likely get the chocolates again. They will be primed to go us, they always seem to be and we always seem to be surprised and caught off guard.

 

[inyourcool]

So true! They always lift for this game. Especially Zorko

 

[HARKER]

Watch the bloke play: he's not a bulldozer. Might run all day, but I wouldn't call him explosive. Not quite an outside mid, not quite an inside mid, and not really a good mix of qualities to play around the stoppages either.

Makes him an awkward top 5 prospect for mine.

Awkward?

A guy that runs all day, finds the ball at will, is a regular best in most games he plays and is captain material is somehow awkward?
Maybe you're seeing O'Rourke here instead of Kelly here. Walsh is no O'Rourke.

 

[cookie monster]

Yeah like I said, I'm not comfortable giving up a #1 pick (or 2 - 4) for a guy who's going to leave them next year anyway.

It's too much of a win for them and too much of a loss for us. They'll lose him next year if they don't trade him this year. So from their perspective, the #1 pick is a HUGE win for them. Meanwhile, we will have wasted an opportunity to add another gun kid to our list.

He is not going to adamantly want to come home this year. I'm near 100% certain of that.

Even if Shiel nominates us and we can't strike a deal (ie they demand pick #1 and we refuse to give it up) we can then target him next year for sure.

Look what happened with Adelaide and Gibbs. They waited a year and so did Gibbs. He didn't hold a grudge because they wouldn't trade their top picks for him.

We're living in a world where everyone is afraid to offend someone. No need for it.

If Shiel is smart, he'll wait till his contract is over. Why come to us now when he can come to us with another #1 pick on our list? Why would he inadvertently force us to have to give up some of our most precious commodities? At the end of the day, his best interests would be to make sure him leaving GWS benefits us and it will only serve to make his future team stronger. Plus, it's not like he'll be wasting a year of his career, GWS have a far stronger shot at the flag next year than we do.

I think even those advocating for him to come this year would not accept a straight swap of pick 1. There would need to be another top 10 pick coming our way, at the minimum

A better trade would be to trade pick 1 to Adelaide for their top 10 picks, use one on Shiel and take the other to the draft

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Awkward?

A guy that runs all day, finds the ball at will, is a regular best in most games he plays and is captain material is somehow awkward?
Maybe you're seeing O'Rourke here instead of Kelly here. Walsh is no O'Rourke.

Do you rate Walsh above Bailey Smith?

 

[Blue_Fusion]

I think even those advocating for him to come this year would not accept a straight swap of pick 1. There would need to be another top 10 pick coming our way, at the minimum

A better trade would be to trade pick 1 to Adelaide for their top 10 picks, use one on Shiel and take the other to the draft

Even so, #9 this year + Shiel or #1 this year + Shiel next year. I know which one I'd rather have and I'm pretty sure Shiel would want the latter too if he's so hell bent on coming to us.

 

[cookie monster]

Even so, #9 this year + Shiel or #1 this year + Shiel next year. I know which one I'd rather have and I'm pretty sure Shiel would want the latter too if he's so hell bent on coming to us.

Yes but if Silvagni is confident of getting a player that fits our needs at Pick 9 he should absolutely do this.

The benefit of another year with Shiel, to the careers of SPS, Fisher and Dow will be worth so much more than the pick downgrade

 

[HARKER]

Do you rate Walsh above Bailey Smith?

I do and at this early stage and even right now, I'd punt on RCD before Smith. It's just an opinion based on limited viewing.
I like Curtis Taylor also and even though he hasn't been performing as well as he can, I haven't dropped of Rozee just yet.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Yes but if Silvagni is confident of getting a player that fits our needs at Pick 9 he should absolutely do this.

The benefit of another year with Shiel, to the careers of SPS, Fisher and Dow will be worth so much more than the pick downgrade

Fair enough.

A player that fits our needs most is a fast, hard at it midfielder who has very good disposal by foot. So far Bailey Smith imo meets that criteria most but he won't be around by #9.

I don't think one extra season of Shiel would make that much of a difference to them though tbh. I reckon a gun kid taken at #1 would have more of an impact going forward. They are still so young, one more season won't make or break them.

 

[LanceRomance]

Hoping we're into Lycett in a big way as a FA. Spend overs to get him as Kreuz is one bad injury from retirement or serious decline.

We have Phillips and Lobbe

 

[Blue_Fusion]

I do and at this early stage and even right now, I'd punt on RCD before Smith. It's just an opinion based on limited viewing.
I like Curtis Taylor also and even though he hasn't been performing as well as he can, I haven't dropped of Rozee just yet.

The thing I like about Bailey is he trained with us, so SOS would have a pretty solid grasp on how he goes about it. Recall reading somewhere that SOS was a big fan of his. He's been a bit of a bolter this year, most would have maybe had him in the early teens to early 20's now he's cementing himself well into around the top 7.

http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/23918862/afl-draft-wrap-************-knightmare-bailey-smith

 

[therubbernub]

History of number 1 picks say he doesn't live up to the hype.
Every year we get swept up into thinking pick 1 is supposed to be a superstar, when really it's just a good indicator as to who has the drive and talent to be a good 200+ game player. The truth is, especially with KPPs, 18 years old is too early to know who is going to take that step from really good to great.

Its a very good point you make , and I question this myself. The thing that get ne about Lukosius , is that he doesnt maul his opposition defenders- he is that not type of player, he is not Patton, boyd etc or even schake who was tall. There is definitely a real intelligence to his game that you cant take away, and along with his elite fitness and disposal, makes him a different propostion. I am not sure that we will see him taking charlie like "hangers"like we did this last weekend though

 

[therubbernub]

The logic behind my post was to remove him from deep in defence as much as possible and use him as a link up wing man where his speed, long kicking, spoiling and marking could be an advantage.
Right now, his brain fades are very costly when they are made from deep in defence and often result in turnover goals.

Worth a look to see how he goes I guess. My reservation would be his fitness. Does he have the endurance to be part of the midfield

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

I think not winning anymore games would mean we have intended to with our easy draw, we are capable of some pretty good footy, but I agree, I think pick one will probably not be ours.

I think Bolts will want to drive a winning culture through the list so if there are games available for taking we will be doing everything to win them, I also think SOS would much rather not have the pressure of having the #1 pick, especially if Lukosious is so heavily spruiked and doesnt quite fit our needs, but the pressure to take him will seem overwhelming with every keyboard recruiter and so called draft expert claiming he is the best they have ever seen, skip him and you could end up with egg all over your face and reputation ruined.. But if we dont have #1 we dont have the pressure.

Recruiting is far from an exact science, even in the NBA where many more resources are spent they can get it wrong.. Last year Philly took Fultz at #1, was a generational player, easily best in the draft.. it already looks a bust yet pick #2 Lonzo Ball has question marks, but pick #3 Jayson Tatum is already a star

 

[therubbernub]

Blue supporters need to wake up and stop taking Cripps for granted - all very well to swoon over the future potential of SPS/Fisher and Dow - none of whom can take on the bigger players who rotate through on ball to Cripps and just smash him over and over again. Cripps hasn't signed up for a bunged up body by his mid 20's in order to provide an armchair ride for developing 'potential' of kids. He has less support than Judd had and Judd had none. thank goodness Kennedy is back on field and playing - the only other player in teh side on Sunday with any hint of genuine menace.

AFL football STARTS with midfield capability and Carlton isnt even on the starting blocks - destroys any defensive structure as well as attacking structure - just a joke - no one is fooled except look long term rose coloured glass optimists. Long term is built by incremental improvement short terms.

2 genuine midfield presences required to keep rebuild on track - no BS.

You mention Kennedy, but seem to dismiss him as genuine support for PC. I think its too early to tell with him. I was relieved to see a better game from him last week however. I dont think the Cripps needs more support mantra is as important as the "our forwards need better forward entries and more of them"
We simply need players that can run and spread and get plenty of the ball. But I am not convinced that these player types need to come from a #1 pick

 

[Schoonerman]

One thing we have learnt about SOS the last couple of years is that he is ruthless..
Dont reckon he'll part with our first pick for Shiel, But he is working on something else to make it happen.
Just because the club has come on the front foot re priority pick doesnt mean we wont get it..
Its great for us to speculate :
My thoughts ,Get Shiel and Lukosiuos somehow someway.
Cripps needs help pronto..

 

[therubbernub]

SOS would much rather not have the pressure of having the #1 pick, especially if Lukosious is so heavily spruiked and doesnt quite fit our needs

Lukosius is not just a forward. These super mobile, super fit, tall players are utility gold.