Mega Thread 2018 Trade Period Discussion part 2! (cont. in Part 3 - link in OP)

[Ozzie]

Bolton is rivaling Neeld for the worst coach in modern history. Absolute moron.

How much of Carlton's problems are due to poor talent identification, and how much is due to shithouse player development?

Combination of both IMO. All SOS has done is to hoover up the players he drafted for GWS. All the dud ones.

 

[Vader]

why-not-both-spanish-girl.jpeg

although, i'd also add "all-round club culture" as separate to your two reasons

I'm sure there are a number of factors at play. However, when it comes to top-10 draft picks, I doubt "talent identification" is the biggest issue with Carlton's ongoing failures. Talent identification really only comes into play with the later picks.

 

[jo172]

How much of Carlton's problems are due to poor talent identification, and how much is due to shithouse player development?

So much the latter.

Had Kreuzer, Murphy and Gibbs played at reasonable clubs they would have been phenomenons.

I saw Kornes bleating his usual stupidity about #1 picks being overrated because not many have turned out guns. It's because they go to shithouse clubs.

 

[Cap]

So who is calling 5aa today?

Justin Reid on, tell us why we caved so early.

 

[Ozzie]

I'm sure there are a number of factors at play. However, when it comes to top-10 draft picks, I doubt "talent identification" is the biggest issue with Carlton's ongoing failures. Talent identification really only comes into play with the later picks.

They have a poor recent drafting history over the last decade from memory.

 

[Stiffy_18]

I'm not super bullish on our 2019 chances yet. I think we bounce back into finals but as of right now we haven't tangibly improved our team via trade week. Whereas most of our competitors have with a big recruit or making the most of a bad hand.

Richmond have added one of the most promising KPFs in the league.
Collingwood brought back a favourite son in a very similar move to us with Gibbs.
Melbourne whilst losing Hogan, have added May who will fill the Talia role for them allowing Lever to just do what he does best. Along with KK who is a handy best 22 piece.
Essendon gained Shiel and they were the best team outside of the 8 this year, not us.

Despite that I still think we can easily jump the likes of Port, North, Hawthorn (despite their massive list changes), Geelong and Sydney.

I know big name recruits wasn't the focus of our year this season, but I am worried the end result is going to be us left in the dust in terms of the pointy end of the competition.

Exact same thing was said at the end of 2016 trade period. The melts were huge. Missed out on Gibbs, gave Lyons away for what other believed was peanuts, Barlow ditched us for Gold Coast. Henderson was delisted and not a single player was brought in during the trade week. Organic growth line got ridiculed on the board like nothing else before it.

I am seeing the same level of melts this time around as well. WC didn't improve at the end of last year's trade period either. Lost 3 high quality players and brought in SFA.

People don't realise that there is a big scope for improvement from within. Finishing where we finished with 12-10 record mind you is not a true reflection of talent level and quality of our list. Lever was easily replaced by Doedee. We struggled to replace Cameron but we got a couple of players this trade week that could cover that loss. People go on about McGovern being a disastrous loss, he missed 5 months of football over last two season. He was a handy player to have due to his versatility and unique athletic traits for his size but he was far from critical for us. We made a GF with Gov missing 12 weeks of football.

 

[Deaneus!]

They have a poor recent drafting history over the last decade from memory.

Blaine Boekhorst likes this

Look at this, it's like a killing field over there

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/td-carlton-blues?year=2014

9 picks, 1 remaining in the system... for a different team

 

[Eagleboy2011]

My understanding is that it had nothing to do with salary cap pressures. We had the choice between Carey & Pavlich, and Ayres wanted to go with Carey. We didn't have the draft resources (i.e. players & picks) to get both, so the Senior Coach got his way.

We gave up 2 and 18 for Carey. A player out of the game for a while. Could have picked him up for 0 in pre season draft.

 

[Carmo]

No more crippling outcome? Do you have survey results to confirm this?

Incredibly likely, let’s see.

What we do know is we go in with Jacobs one year older when he had already lost it last year. We also know when he was badly beaten, we lost.

But, it doesn’t matter, there is nothing more crippling than a negative value contract.

To be fair jacobs has lost it three times previously and has regained it each time after

 

[Carmo]

Your 3rd option is pretty much my option 1. Mine was suggesting trading out a player or two in certain positions that are superfluous to our needs but have currency. I was suggesting using the draft to help us get over the line but to get ourselves into the top 6 to get the guns to achieve that end.

Can you list the superfluous players pls.

 

[Eagleboy2011]

To be fair jacobs has lost it three times previously and has regained it each time after

I think Jacobs still has a lot to offer. He needs to be managed better and keep him away from Hass.

 

[jo172]

We gave up 2 and 18 for Carey. A player out of the game for a while. Could have picked him up for 0 in pre season draft.

It was 4 when we gave it up. We didn't know Carlton were going to get their picks stripped. Both Richmond and us are on the record as saying the pick never would have traded hands if we knew it was going to be 2.

No way in hell would North/the AFL let him walk to the PSD in any event .

 

[Crowked]

And finally... check it out, we have pick 119

That should be Port’s pick every year, forever.

 

[jo172]

Further, had we kept pick 4, given Fanta's inclinations, we would have ended up with Tim Walsh

Got more out of Carey even.

 

[Crow Envy]

To be fair jacobs has lost it three times previously and has regained it each time after

So our football department have banked our ruck hopes on Jacobs bouncing back even though he’s older and in the twilight of his career? That’s a sound strategy.

 

[Eagleboy2011]

It was 4 when we gave it up. We didn't know Carlton were going to get their picks stripped. Both Richmond and us are on the record as saying the pick never would have traded hands if we knew it was going to be 2.

No way in hell would North/the AFL let him walk to the PSD in any event .

Sorry I thought you didn't have to enter/nominate draft but just the pre-season. Our 1st pick that year was Luke Jericho. What a spud.

 

[Stiffy_18]

So our football department have banked our ruck hopes on Jacobs bouncing back even though he’s older and in the twilight of his career? That’s a sound strategy.

Jacobs is only 30. Ruckman play well into their 30s. Hell some of them start hitting their prime at that age.

 

[Carmo]

The way I see it the club had 2 options this year and trade season.
Option 1. Club is still in the premiership window. Not quite good enough but if we trade/draft well it could tip us over the line. That strategy should have meant that club was selective in who they contracted this year and a player or two with value that may have netted us a top 10 to 15 pick should have been moved. This would have resulted in around 6 to 7 picks within the top 30. Then we should have turned 4 of those into 2 top 6 picks. That should have netted us 1 top line SA boy with a top interstater or 2 top line SA boys. The others 2 or 3 picks should have been the best talent that can give immediate impact around pick 20 to 30. That way the top SA talent may help us win a flag but if they don't we have invested in 10 to 15 year career that will stay.
Option 2. Club believes we are not good enough to win a flag. Club is super selective who we sign and anyone not part of the next flag tilt is on the table. Not all are traded but some are. Nett result is that there is substantial salary cap moved and we would have had potentially 8 or 9 picks in the top 35. Some could have been used on trades around the 23 to 24 age bracket with the additional salary space or we go the same strategy as before. 4 picks used to get 2 topliners in the top 6 and 4 or 5 in the 20 to 35 pick range. We pick best available talent with an emphasis on local if we can.

What did we do? Neither. What we did could potentially set the club back 5 years in winning a flag. Hope they prove me wrong.

Our team that made the 2017 grandy had barely 4 first round picks in it, the rest of the team was clever trades, picks 40+ and rookies!

Now somehow having the same amount of first round picks in one year as in the whole of that gf team is going to be a problem?!?!?

 

[Crow Envy]

Jacobs is only 30. Ruckman play well into their 30s. Hell some of them start hitting their prime at that age.

Turns 31 at the start of the season. He’s a slow lumbering ruckman that can’t jump, the modern ruckman are jumping all over him.

Our season basically is dependant on him bouncing back, if he doesn’t we might as well forget it, opposition midfields will kill us.

 

[Red mist]

No, I can be ruthless as anyone however the over the top negativity is off the Richter scale.

Perhaps a bit more balance is required.

You either get turd blossoms or roses in general.
This time of yr also the horse and cart. Meh

 

[FAITH]

The negativity on here seems to be solely based on port having slightly better picks than we do.

For people looking to 'get hard,' 4 picks inside 21, In a pretty awesome draft, with Hamish in charge, potentially 4 quality mids:

 

[Red mist]

To be fair jacobs has lost it three times previously and has regained it each time after

Very cyclical Sauce. This is his reliable Sauce season coming up.

 

[Shaz2012]

Turns 31 at the start of the season. He’s a slow lumbering ruckman that can’t jump, the modern ruckman are jumping all over him.

Our season basically is dependant on him bouncing back, if he doesn’t we might as well forget it, opposition midfields will kill us.

I have become a massive doubter of Sauce. I am calling him "cooked". I think that the smart list management move would have been to get in a replacement.

BUT. I live in hope that he can prove me wrong. I am also very quietly confident that he can. We mismanaged the fitness of our whole squad this year. Although we still have Burton in charge, FFS, we have brought in Steve Saunders from North. This is an amazing get. We have the entire pre-season to prepare Sauce for one last year. Hopefully, we have half a brain next year and give ROB some games to keep Sauce as fresh as humanly possible. With an easier draw, it should be possible to give him a week off 3 or 4 times during the season. Hopefully more.

Very quietly confident that Saunders can get Tex right as well. Tex is the key, more so than Sauce.

 

[Bicks]

Turns 31 at the start of the season. He’s a slow lumbering ruckman that can’t jump, the modern ruckman are jumping all over him.

Our season basically is dependant on him bouncing back, if he doesn’t we might as well forget it, opposition midfields will kill us.

I think our midfield's success is more dependent on Brad Crouch returning to his best than Sam Jacobs personally.

 

[Vader]

We gave up 2 and 18 for Carey. A player out of the game for a while. Could have picked him up for 0 in pre season draft.

You lost the argument when you mentioned the PSD.