List Mgmt. 2019 Draft and Trade Hypotheticals Thread - Part II

[McRobie]

GC won’t risk not being able to get the two in Rowell and Anderson

I think Green will be better than Anderson.

 

[SGBeach]

would love to see GC bid at 1 or 2 on Green.
Im guessing we go Serong, He looks a decent sort of player but does he have star quality? Jackson looks way too much of a risk given our current list. I mean great if he turns into Grundy but big men take time and patience, he'd prob get home sick and go home as he'd get sick of "developing" in the NEAFL.

would love to see GWS trade up to p4 (giving up p6 and future 1st and maybe more) and then Goldcoast bid on green.. That'd f**k 'em

 

[LukeParkerno1]

if you had a choice of a top 10 pick this year(any year) or the following year, would you draft that player now or wait a year?

The current year easily. Futures are great but I’d rather take the player in this draft rather than next

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I think Green will be better than Anderson.

Quite possibly but the gap is so small that you take the player that will help retain Rowell, etc

 

[SGBeach]

The current year easily. Futures are great but I’d rather take the player in this draft rather than next

Thats why Freo will be happy to, probably trying to trade up this year.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Thats why Freo will be happy to, probably trying to trade up this year.

To a degree. They won’t want 800-1000 points deficit when they will have a top 8 pick next year.

You are wanting to trade for the sake of it too. It reduces our hand as well.

 

[SGBeach]

To a degree. They won’t want 800-1000 points deficit when they will have a top 8 pick next year.

You are wanting to trade for the sake of it too. It reduces our hand as well.

disagree.
To sacrifice a future ist to a future 2nd, which ensures 3 x top 10 picks this year would be a win for Freo.
to trade pick 5 for 10 and 22 is a win as far as points go (that doesn't mean anything) but..
would be a win if we get the player we want at 10, or at least 1 of two players we wanted with our first pick.. and
improve our later selections eg.. 25, 32, 44 to 20, 22, 25 (there's a lot of scenarios that could dramatically improve our later selections)

It comes down to how Dalrymple judges the players likely to go at the pics we move to compared to if we stay with current selections

 

[GotTheGoodes]

That’s value, it’s when you go the other way that’s the issue especially when better players were there

Hindsight is pretty damn amazing huh?

 

[LukeParkerno1]

disagree.
To sacrifice a future ist to a future 2nd, which ensures 3 x top 10 picks this year would be a win for Freo.
to trade pick 5 for 10 and 22 is a win as far as points go (that doesn't mean anything) but..
would be a win if we get the player we want at 10, or at least 1 of two players we wanted with our first pick.. and
improve our later selections eg.. 25, 32, 44 to 20, 22, 25 (there's a lot of scenarios that could dramatically improve our later selections)

It comes down to how Dalrymple judges the players likely to go at the pics we move to compared to if we stay with current selections

So we reduce our hand (which we rate) to help Freo...not sure you get the trading thing- you are meant to help yourself first not others, and no some useless upgrades aren’t helping us at all. Would only trade 5 if you can guarantee Kemp at the later selection and the second selection coming back is in the teens, 22 isn’t enough. Don’t care for future picks. We need to take our best hand to this draft. It includes pick 5 or at least a top 10 selection

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Hindsight is pretty damn amazing huh?

A lot said it at the time I know I did

 

[Keyter]

waiting for plane, so forgive
Assuming Melb hold pick 3 and looking at the early draft from GWS view. Just some of the options...

Option 1
3. Melb bid Green. GWS decline
4. Adel keep P4 Adel - Young
5. Syd ? - Jackson, Kemp, Stephens, Flanders, Serong, Ash, Robertson
6. GWS....?


Option 2
3. Melb - Jackson.
4. Adel swaps P4 for GWS P6. GWS - Young
5. Syd bids Green. GWS accepts. GWS - Green
6. Syd - Kemp, Stephens, Flanders, Serong, Ash, Robertson


Option 3
3. Melb bid Green. GWS accept. GWS - Green
4. Melb - Jackson.
5. Adel - Young
6. Sydney have available - Kemp, Stephens, Flanders, Serong, Ash, Robertson

Many other options but I don’t know why any club would be kind to this years grand finalists no matter how bad they were beaten...

 

[Bandicoot]

Freo won't be an option, they need those for the Henry bid. They are hoping to have two before Henry, with pick 10 being borderline (Carlton may bid).

All the more reason that Freo will be an option. With picks 5 & 8 they get their two guns before a bid on Henry. Otherwise Carlton are quite likely to make a bid at 9 meaning they then waste pick 10 paying for Henry.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

All the more reason that Freo will be an option. With picks 5 & 8 they get their two guns before a bid on Henry. Otherwise Carlton are quite likely to make a bid at 9 meaning they then waste pick 10 paying for Henry.

And you are happy about us getting royally bent...that's what that deal is for us...we trade out of the top 5, to 10 which means we miss out on the top talents....but never stress we get a pick 20+ as well...yippeee....

If the second pick was 14-16 odd, then maybe but not 20+

 

[SGBeach]

So we reduce our hand (which we rate) to help Freo...not sure you get the trading thing- you are meant to help yourself first not others, and no some useless upgrades aren’t helping us at all. Would only trade 5 if you can guarantee Kemp at the later selection and the second selection coming back is in the teens, 22 isn’t enough. Don’t care for future picks. We need to take our best hand to this draft. It includes pick 5 or at least a top 10 selection

No.. you are not understanding.
Freo wins.. otherwise they wouldn't trade
Swans win.. otherwise we wouldn't trade
p44 is upgraded to p22 (for example) That is not a useless upgrade!
If we get a player we want at 10 then the downgrade is worth it. or.. If the player we want at 5 is gone.
This has nothing to do with Swans future picks, so not sure why you mention that.

I get the trading thing. Being open and flexible is important. Being stuck on Use pick 5 no matter what is not how Dalrymple works, or any team for that matter

 

[LukeParkerno1]

No.. you are not understanding.
Freo wins.. otherwise they wouldn't trade
Swans win.. otherwise we wouldn't trade
p44 is upgraded to p22 (for example) That is not a useless upgrade!
If we get a player we want at 10 then the downgrade is worth it. or.. If the player we want at 5 is gone.
This has nothing to do with Swans future picks, so not sure why you mention that.

I get the trading thing. Being open and flexible is important. Being stuck on Use pick 5 no matter what is not how Dalrymple works, or any team for that matter

It is a useless trade, pick 22 in this draft isn't great. it really starts to thin out after the first round a fair bit.

I'm not stuck on taking pick 5 actually, but as I said the second pick has to be in the teens not the 20's. Freo are bending us over in that deal. Swans don't win at all, and it's us that has the Ace not them. To do this deal we HAVE to win the trade. It is also questionable whether we'd get the player we want at 10. If we missed out on a Flanders for instance trading down, it would be mighty annoying!

 

[SGBeach]

And you are happy about us getting royally bent...that's what that deal is for us...we trade out of the top 5, to 10 which means we miss out on the top talents....but never stress we get a pick 20+ as well...yippeee....

If the second pick was 14-16 odd, then maybe but not 20+

Theres a good chance that p14,15,17 may be traded.
p32 + p25 could be traded for one of those picks.
therefore leaving the Swans with
p10,(14,15,17),22,44
p32 upgraded to 22 is a good upgrade. and p25 upgraded to 14,15,17 is a good upgrade

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Theres a good chance that p14,15,17 may be traded.
p32 + p25 could be traded for one of those picks.
therefore leaving the Swans with
p10,(14,15,17),22,44
p32 upgraded to 22 is a good upgrade. and p25 upgraded to 14,15,17 is a good upgrade

We'd have to spend way too much capital to get any of those upgrades. I'd only do it if a Kemp or someone like that is certain to drop to 10 as well. I'd rather do this on draft night too as it increases our hand. 10&22 is the problem I have, that personally isn't a great deal at all. Get Freo to upgrade that 22, then we can talk. One of Port's picks in the teens would be reasonable.

 

[SGBeach]

It is a useless trade, pick 22 in this draft isn't great. it really starts to thin out after the first round a fair bit.

I'm not stuck on taking pick 5 actually, but as I said the second pick has to be in the teens not the 20's. Freo are bending us over in that deal. Swans don't win at all, and it's us that has the Ace not them. To do this deal we HAVE to win the trade. It is also questionable whether we'd get the player we want at 10. If we missed out on a Flanders for instance trading down, it would be mighty annoying!

Yes We have the upper hand.
Im trying to outline options where we may trade. There are a few scenarios that I can think of where to not trade picks would be wrong

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Yes We have the upper hand.
Im trying to outline options where we may trade. There are a few scenarios that I can think of where to not trade picks would be wrong

With all these options they are one where we should wait till draft night, then if a club wants to come to us offering heaven and earth then we can talk.

 

[SGBeach]

We'd have to spend way too much capital to get any of those upgrades. I'd only do it if a Kemp or someone like that is certain to drop to 10 as well. I'd rather do this on draft night too as it increases our hand. 10&22 is the problem I have, that personally isn't a great deal at all. Get Freo to upgrade that 22, then we can talk. One of Port's picks in the teens would be reasonable.

Im sure that before trading p5 for 10 and 22, the next trade has been discussed and would be very likely or certain, for the initial swap to be done.
The capital spent is pick 5 to p10 + 22
It leaves us with 5 picks (10,22,25,32,44) and two could be traded up.. eg p25 + 32 for p15

 

[SGBeach]

With all these options they are one where we should wait till draft night, then if a club wants to come to us offering heaven and earth then we can talk.

exactly. thats why it hasn't happened
Who knows what happens on draft night. We may bid on Green at 5 and GWS dont match. Stranger things have happened

 

[SwansProudly]

GWS have pick 4

 

[sataris]

After 357 pages I can say with authority that

Fun Fact: Nobody here has any idea.

 

[Dan87]

Crows you cowards

 

[Keyter]

waiting for plane, so forgive
Assuming Melb hold pick 3 and looking at the early draft from GWS view. Just some of the options...

Option 1
3. Melb bid Green. GWS decline
4. Adel keep P4 Adel - Young
5. Syd ? - Jackson, Kemp, Stephens, Flanders, Serong, Ash, Robertson
6. GWS....?


Option 2
3. Melb - Jackson.
4. Adel swaps P4 for GWS P6. GWS - Young
5. Syd bids Green. GWS accepts. GWS - Green
6. Syd - Kemp, Stephens, Flanders, Serong, Ash, Robertson


Option 3
3. Melb bid Green. GWS accept. GWS - Green
4. Melb - Jackson.
5. Adel - Young
6. Sydney have available - Kemp, Stephens, Flanders, Serong, Ash, Robertson

Many other options but I don’t know why any club would be kind to this years grand finalists no matter how bad they were beaten...

Option 2.......GWS win again....at least in the short term perception stakes....