Resource 2020 Draft Watch (picks 1, 9, 20, 30, 45, 50, 60, 74) - updated R17 15/9/20

[Deaneus!]

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[Bearded Clam]

He does look like he is made for the modern game. Can see why he got some hype late last year, for sure.

Still, long way to go, though if he does get on Adelaides list he'll be at some good odds for a round 1 debut seeing our small to mid forwards are not an area of strength right now.

I think he and stengle would compliment each other playing together in our forward line as our two small forwards.. two highly skilled, but different players..

 

[Golumless]

I think he and stengle would compliment each other playing together in our forward line as our two small forwards.. two highly skilled, but different players..

McAdam is also very skilled to add to that. Could be a very dangerous triplet, especially if you could eek a mid-rotation out of them. 3 small/mid forwards is probably the sweet spot for the 2020s as well.

Get something like Thillhorpe + Newchurch and we could be looking at a pretty settled offensive line for the next 5-6 years. Probably only a ruck/tall forward (I know, Thillhorpe is advertised as that, but I'm hesitant to use that option until he's had a couple of years in the system) and a mid/forward rotation to go with Jones/McHenry short, but it's promising.

 

[Bearded Clam]

McAdam is also very skilled to add to that. Could be a very dangerous triplet, especially if you could eek a mid-rotation out of them. 3 small/mid forwards is probably the sweet spot for the 2020s as well.

Get something like Thillhorpe + Newchurch and we could be looking at a pretty settled offensive line for the next 5-6 years. Probably only a ruck/tall forward (I know, Thillhorpe is advertised as that, but I'm hesitant to use that option until he's had a couple of years in the system) and a mid/forward rotation to go with Jones/McHenry short, but it's promising.

New church in some of those highlights looks to start in the centre bounce a couple of times... he’s got lightening quick speed, great skills and looks very evasive in traffic... can definately see him as an easy pick for a mid rotation.. not sure about Shane and Tyson though!.. although, Tyson has done some work in the midfield in the SANFL..

 

[dylan123]

I hope if we have pick 1/2 we look at getting an elite midfielder if there's one to be had ahead of a KP forward.

Midfielders are more of a game winner than a KP forward, especially with the direction the game has moved in recent decades. 100 goal forwards don't exist any more, they're no longer the game winners week in/week out that they once were imo. Certainly feel like you need someone compete and would obviously love a great key forward but feel like the early draft pick ones are such a gamble (most are I suppose) and I think going for an elite midfielder over a forward is less of a gamble and is more important to the side at the end of the day.

I have no idea what this draft looks like but if there's a top prospect midfielder then that's who I want.

 

[Danger_zone]

The consensus seems to be that we’ll grab Thilthorpe at our first pick (if he’s available). Along with Fog, Stengle and McAdams (I’m assuming the last 2 make it), where does Josh Worrel sit?

Thought he was rated quite highly by this board when we drafted him.

 

[Golumless]

I hope if we have pick 1/2 we look at getting an elite midfielder if there's one to be had ahead of a KP forward.

Midfielders are more of a game winner than a KP forward, especially with the direction the game has moved in recent decades. 100 goal forwards don't exist any more, they're no longer the game winners week in/week out that they once were imo. Certainly feel like you need someone compete and would obviously love a great key forward but feel like the early draft pick ones are such a gamble (most are I suppose) and I think going for an elite midfielder over a forward is less of a gamble and is more important to the side at the end of the day.

I have no idea what this draft looks like but if there's a top prospect midfielder then that's who I want.

I'm in the key forward camp right now. SA kpf should go in the top 3, and regardless what we do, we're unlikely to rebound out of the bottom 4 in 2021. Set up the forward line this year, and focus on going big in midfield next year.

We do have the GWS pick and Edwards to add to our midfield prospects this year.

The consensus seems to be that we’ll grab Thilthorpe at our first pick (if he’s available). Along with Fog, Stengle and McAdams (I’m assuming the last 2 make it), where does Josh Worrel sit?

Thought he was rated quite highly by this board when we drafted him.

Could make it as a third tall. Might end up in no man's land though.

 

[CrowCro]

The consensus seems to be that we’ll grab Thilthorpe at our first pick (if he’s available). Along with Fog, Stengle and McAdams (I’m assuming the last 2 make it), where does Josh Worrel sit?

Thought he was rated quite highly by this board when we drafted him.

In my opinion Worrell will be better than McAsey as has more speed and can provide run . McAsey will be a negating defender at best but I have real concerns about his speed

 

[dylan123]

I'm in the key forward camp right now. SA kpf should go in the top 3, and regardless what we do, we're unlikely to rebound out of the bottom 4 in 2021. Set up the forward line this year, and focus on going big in midfield next year.

We do have the GWS pick and Edward's to add to our midfield prospects this year.

I imagine GWS make the 8 and I'm not sure if Edwards is that top 5 midfield talent which we haven't really gone for before.

Just looking at the top 10 picks since 2005 (2004 does have Roughy and Franklin which are elite), and the KP picks in that bunch (some are possibly 3rd talls, added as they might have been viewed as a KP in their draft year, I'm not sure on every single one of them) -

2005 - Kennedy (4), Dowler (6), Ryder (7), Mitch Clark (9)
2006 - Gumbleton (2), Hansen (3), Thorp (6), Reid (8)
2007 - Grant (5), Henderson (8)
2008 - Watts (1), Hurley (5), Vickery (8), Phil Davis (10)
2009 - Butcher (8)
2010 - Day (3), Gorringe (10)
2011 - Patton (1), Haynes (7), Tomlinson (9)
2012 - Daniher (10)
2013 - T.Boyd (1)
2014 - P.McCartin (1), Marchbank (6), Wright (8), Moore (9)
2015 - Weitering (1), Schache (2), Francis (6), Wideman (9), McKay (10)
2016 - N.A, couple of tallish guys but don't think they were as KP.
2017 - Naughton (9)
2018 - Lukosius (2), M.King (4), B.King (6), T.Thomas (8), Blakey (10)
2019 - Not going to bother, even the past couple is too early to call.

Looking at the above list, there are a few KP players that were drafted as defenders that probably shouldn't really be included when I'm mainly talking about KP forwards. There are others that were drafted as forwards which didn't really work and have turned into defenders.

Outside of Kennedy, I wouldn't say any of the others have made it as elite forwards. Daniher has looked good at stages but injuries have hurt. Naughton looks great and too early to make a judgement call on the King brothers but a good start.

There are some very good players in that lot but most of them have turned into strong defenders (Henderson, Hurley, Davis, Haynes, Moore, Weitering (Ryder I've added as I seem to recall him playing at CHB early on for Essendon and has been a solid player)) yet I'm not sure you'd really want to use a pick 1-3 on them either.

Key position forwards is such a gamble even at the very top end of the table, I'm just not sure they're worth the risk when you have a pick that early with how little it works. As I said just before I started listing them, 2004 has Roughy and Franklin so that would put it to 3 players I'd be over the moon with if we had them with pick 1-3 (too early to make a comment on anything from 2017 onwards).

 

[Mutineer]

Ryder solid player? At his top he was an absolute A grader wherever he played not too mention an All Australian.

No mention of Eric Hipwood ( pick 14) who would no doubt gone higher if he was in the open draft and not being in the Lions Academy.

 

[dylan123]

Ryder solid player? At his top he was an absolute A grader wherever he played not too mention an All Australian.

No mention of Eric Hipwood ( pick 14) who would no doubt gone higher if he was in the open draft and not being in the Lions Academy.

Yep, don't disagree with Ryder, more wasn't sure where to fit him in as the rest of the guys I mentioned were defenders whereas most of his career has been in the ruck.

As I said, only top 10 so that's why Hipwood wasn't mentioned.

 

[MRB37]

The consensus seems to be that we’ll grab Thilthorpe at our first pick (if he’s available). Along with Fog, Stengle and McAdams (I’m assuming the last 2 make it), where does Josh Worrel sit?

Thought he was rated quite highly by this board when we drafted him.

Back in Victoria.

 

[Mego Red]

Sounds like Josh Worrall is more a third tall defender?

 

[Mismatched]

I imagine GWS make the 8 and I'm not sure if Edwards is that top 5 midfield talent which we haven't really gone for before.

Just looking at the top 10 picks since 2005 (2004 does have Roughy and Franklin which are elite), and the KP picks in that bunch (some are possibly 3rd talls, added as they might have been viewed as a KP in their draft year, I'm not sure on every single one of them) -

2005 - Kennedy (4), Dowler (6), Ryder (7), Mitch Clark (9)
2006 - Gumbleton (2), Hansen (3), Thorp (6), Reid (8)
2007 - Grant (5), Henderson (8)
2008 - Watts (1), Hurley (5), Vickery (8), Phil Davis (10)
2009 - Butcher (8)
2010 - Day (3), Gorringe (10)
2011 - Patton (1), Haynes (7), Tomlinson (9)
2012 - Daniher (10)
2013 - T.Boyd (1)
2014 - P.McCartin (1), Marchbank (6), Wright (8), Moore (9)
2015 - Weitering (1), Schache (2), Francis (6), Wideman (9), McKay (10)
2016 - N.A, couple of tallish guys but don't think they were as KP.
2017 - Naughton (9)
2018 - Lukosius (2), M.King (4), B.King (6), T.Thomas (8), Blakey (10)
2019 - Not going to bother, even the past couple is too early to call.

Looking at the above list, there are a few KP players that were drafted as defenders that probably shouldn't really be included when I'm mainly talking about KP forwards. There are others that were drafted as forwards which didn't really work and have turned into defenders.

Outside of Kennedy, I wouldn't say any of the others have made it as elite forwards. Daniher has looked good at stages but injuries have hurt. Naughton looks great and too early to make a judgement call on the King brothers but a good start.

There are some very good players in that lot but most of them have turned into strong defenders (Henderson, Hurley, Davis, Haynes, Moore, Weitering (Ryder I've added as I seem to recall him playing at CHB early on for Essendon and has been a solid player)) yet I'm not sure you'd really want to use a pick 1-3 on them either.

Key position forwards is such a gamble even at the very top end of the table, I'm just not sure they're worth the risk when you have a pick that early with how little it works. As I said just before I started listing them, 2004 has Roughy and Franklin so that would put it to 3 players I'd be over the moon with if we had them with pick 1-3 (too early to make a comment on anything from 2017 onwards).

Yeah, end of the day a gun midfield can compensate for an average forward line far better than an a gun forward line can compensate for an average midfield.

However, quality midfielders are much easier to come by and if you've got a local prospect like Thilthorpe, you don't ignore them lightly.

 

[arsene wenger1]

Sounds like Josh Worrall is more a third tall defender?

Has he been playing the practice matches

 

[JennyTalia]

I hope if we have pick 1/2 we look at getting an elite midfielder if there's one to be had ahead of a KP forward.

Midfielders are more of a game winner than a KP forward, especially with the direction the game has moved in recent decades. 100 goal forwards don't exist any more, they're no longer the game winners week in/week out that they once were imo. Certainly feel like you need someone compete and would obviously love a great key forward but feel like the early draft pick ones are such a gamble (most are I suppose) and I think going for an elite midfielder over a forward is less of a gamble and is more important to the side at the end of the day.

I have no idea what this draft looks like but if there's a top prospect midfielder then that's who I want.

After seeing his name mentioned on the phantom drafts, I have gone and watched some matches with Will Phillips in it. To my amateur eye, he looks a fantastic prospect and I'd love to have him at the crowies. I reckon we should do what port did a few years back and unload players to try and get 2 or 3 hits in the top 15. If we had multiple early picks I would feel more comfortable gambling on a KPF like Thilthorpe or someone coming off injury like Hollands.
I am obviously no expert but that'd be my dream. Just pumped to have access to the top end talent and still trust Ogilvie despite the negative press of late.

 

[hey shorty]

Philips and Thilthorpe would be a great outcome

 

[Mutineer]

Sounds like Josh Worrall is more a third tall defender?

Nah, Josh Worrell is a genuine Swingman, just as effective forward, I could even see him playing an Isaac Smith type role if we went down that path.

Played centre half back mainly for the Sandringham Dragons but at the Championship against his peers he was a standout playing mainly up forward, great athleticism, sound decision maker, excellent above his head and decent disposal......endurance and consistency across 4 quarters areas of improvement.
I was honestly surprised he wasn't taken a fair bit earlier in the draft....my biggest concern will be keeping him over time.

 

[GrommoT]

My understanding of the situation is that there is no doubt that Fremantle's pick will be downgraded. Think of it this way: once a NGA or father son player is bid on and the other club matches the bid, the matching club cashes in their next pick for points. They then use however many of the points are required to match the bid and then, using the remaining points "buy" back the best single pick that they can afford according to the picks/points table. They do this, one pick at at time, until they have paid the points required to match the bid completely.

In Fremantle's case they cashed in their third pick in last years draft for point to use matching the bid on Henry. They used all of the points that their third pick was worth and then with the remaining 0 points "bought" the first pick in last years draft that is worth 0 points (about pick 75). As there were still points owing in order to match the bid on Henry they then did the same thing with their fourth pick and fifth and so on until all of their picks with a point value had been used. As there were still points owing, Fremantle committed to pay the remaining point deficit with this years picks. At the end of this season, once the pick order has been established (before the trade period and draft), Fremantle will do the same thing that they did last year - cash in their next (first) pick for points, pay the number of points owing and then "buy" the best single pick that they can. For the sake of the argument lets assume that Fremantle finish 18th and Adelaide finish 17th. Fremantle will cash in pick 1 for 3000 points, use 265 points (or whatever the deficit is) to pay the deficit then "buy" back the best single pick they can afford with the remaining 2745 points which will be pick 2. Draft picks have a hard price, a club needs to pay the total points allocated to the pick in order to "buy" it.

That sounds like a different mechanism to how bid matching works during draft nights where if Freo had a pick from which they use some points to pay for a bid match, that Freo pick has remaining points in between another club's pick (less points) and our pick (more points).

That Freo pick is then re-positioned in the position of that other club's pick (which is upgraded) and our pick remains in the same position (incidentally, I believe at this point all picks with changed order get re-allocated points according to the standard draft points table). If the "buy" model you posted applied here, then Freo's pick would also fall below our pick, which would be really weird and doesn't happen (as far as I know).

A major difference with the Freo pick1/pick2 situation is of course there is no other club above us but yet Freo's pick end up below us.

Anyways, I would be very chuffed if the situation ends up with us getting pick 1 even though Freo is bottom of the table as you've posted but we'll have to wait and see.

 

[GrommoT]

Yeah, end of the day a gun midfield can compensate for an average forward line far better than an a gun forward line can compensate for an average midfield.

However, quality midfielders are much easier to come by and if you've got a local prospect like Thilthorpe, you don't ignore them lightly.

 

[mattymac]

After seeing his name mentioned on the phantom drafts, I have gone and watched some matches with Will Phillips in it. To my amateur eye, he looks a fantastic prospect and I'd love to have him at the crowies. I reckon we should do what port did a few years back and unload players to try and get 2 or 3 hits in the top 15. If we had multiple early picks I would feel more comfortable gambling on a KPF like Thilthorpe or someone coming off injury like Hollands.
I am obviously no expert but that'd be my dream. Just pumped to have access to the top end talent and still trust Ogilvie despite the negative press of late.

Agreed. Only way I would spend a top 3 pick on a KPF is if it was FA compo and we had already spent a pick on an elite mid prospect.

Otherwise it's like you're rebuilding a car, gaping hole in the engine bay, you have a 10k cheque to spend and you spend it on a wheel instead of the engine.

And I hear the 'next year's a super draft' chatter but... a bird in the hand...

No one knows what happens next year. Maybe we end up with pick 4 then trade it down to pick 6 and miss the elite talent like last super draft.

 

[GreyCrow]

I wonder if this is what keeps Kelly and co awake at night - managing the next Luko-Rankine debate over - Thilthorpe - ??

 

[hey shorty]

Agreed. Only way I would spend a top 3 pick on a KPF is if it was FA compo and we had already spent a pick on an elite mid prospect.

Otherwise it's like you're rebuilding a car, gaping hole in the engine bay, you have a 10k cheque to spend and you spend it on a wheel instead of the engine.

And I hear the 'next year's a super draft' chatter but... a bird in the hand...

No one knows what happens next year. Maybe we end up with pick 4 then trade it down to pick 6 and miss the elite talent like last super draft.

I'd see it as you have your KPPs like McAsey and Thilthorpe as the chassis. An engine is only as good as the car built around it.

 

[Mileratkinsshow]

Anyone watching U18’s North v Norwood. How is Newchurch going?


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Mutineer]

Anyone watching U18’s North v Norwood. How is Newchurch going?


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Had a few touches, going alright, just kicked a goal then

 

[GrommoT]

I wonder if this is what keeps Kelly and co awake at night - managing the next Luko-Rankine debate over - Thilthorpe - ??

I wouldn't have thought there is a debate - unless there's another tall forward of high potential and SA born we can likely get our hands on this or next year, I hope we grab Tilly and then best available mid. There's usually a mid or two that excites every year.