Resource 2020 Draft Watch (picks 1, 9, 20, 30, 45, 50, 60, 74) - updated R17 15/9/20

[Deaneus!]

​

 

[skittlebrew]

So our worst say 10 players are just not going to play any games this season? Could just loan them out for a year to another SANFL club and agree they don't play any AFL games for the year?

I saw a photo of O'Connor lining up next to Sloane the other day. That kid's got some serious size already.

That's why Sloane gets tagged out of games so easily, he just isn't big enough nor fast enough to escape them.

 

[SaltPeter]

I wouldnt be letting Brad walk unless it involves a top 5 pick coming back which wont be possible with Hawks.

It's going to be interesting to see how / if the AFL does push ahead with list and TPP reductions. That would take a number of Melbourne clubs out of the picture.

 

[SaltPeter]

I saw a photo of O'Connor lining up next to Sloane the other day. That kid's got some serious size already. I can't wait to see what 18 months in a weights room will do to his frame.

Yep, according to his bio on the club web page he's already about 8cms taller and 2kg heavier

 

[1990crow]

No Kaine Baldwin?

We need an athletic contested marking forward real, real bad....this lad can stick his marks on everything I've ever seen.

He's top of my shopping list of the SA lads (reliant on his recovery from the knee reco) and I reckon South Adelaide's Zac Dumesny is a name we're going to hear a lot more of as the season proceeds....another with attributes we need, elite foot skills and great footballing I.Q. Like Edwards he's got good size, excellent skills and likely to move into the midfield this season.

I want Thilthorpe and Baldwin. Finishing low deals with getting Thilthorpe.
Getting Baldwin may be more difficult. With him getting SANFL action he could quickly become a top 6 or 7 draft prospect. Hoping closer to 11-12 as that would probably be achievable in terms of getting currency to get him. GWS first (14-18) added with potentially our 2021 first rounder would get us into the region where hopefully Sydney finish as they have that academy player who may need points (Campbell).
Crows second to pickup Dumesny.
Edwards using Dogs second rounder.
Newchurch and Borlase with whatever we have left.
If we could pull that off.. bring on 2025.

Fogarty, Milera, Doedee, Jones, McHenry, McAsey, Thilthorpe, Baldwin, Edwards, Dumesny, Hamill, Schoenberg, Worrell, Dudley, Oconnor with question marks over Galluci, McPherson, Newchurch, Borlase, Gollant, Murphy, McAdam, Stengle, ROB, Butts

Adding the bolded in my view is key to our long term squad needs. Midfielders would become priority going into 2021 onwards if we have a spine of Thilthorpe, Fogarty, Baldwin, McAsey, Borlase/Worrell/Butts

 

[Betts are off]

Yep, according to his bio on the club web page he's already about 8cms taller and 2kg heavier

Jees, 191cm and 85Kg is the perfect size for a modern rookie midfielder. Obviously its not everything, but it certainly puts him a extremely valuable bracket of starting physical traits.

At that height he could put on 5-7kg between now and rd 1 2021

 

[craig crowing]

I want Thilthorpe and Baldwin. Finishing low deals with getting Thilthorpe.
Getting Baldwin may be more difficult. With him getting SANFL action he could quickly become a top 6 or 7 draft prospect. Hoping closer to 11-12 as that would probably be achievable in terms of getting currency to get him. GWS first (14-18) added with potentially our 2021 first rounder would get us into the region where hopefully Sydney finish as they have that academy player who may need points (Campbell).
Crows second to pickup Dumesny.
Edwards using Dogs second rounder.
Newchurch and Borlase with whatever we have left.
If we could pull that off.. bring on 2025.

Fogarty, Milera, Doedee, Jones, McHenry, McAsey, Thilthorpe, Baldwin, Edwards, Dumesny, Hamill, Schoenberg, Worrell, Dudley, Oconnor with question marks over Galluci, McPherson, Newchurch, Borlase, Gollant, Murphy, McAdam, Stengle, ROB, Butts

Adding the bolded in my view is key to our long term squad needs. Midfielders would become priority going into 2021 onwards if we have a spine of Thilthorpe, Fogarty, Baldwin, McAsey, Borlase/Worrell/Butts

What worries me about your plan which is exciting but that is 6 new draftees and real quality to our future stocks but if playing list reduced to say 35 or 38 we have to delist a lot of players if don't want to touch last years group. looking at 10- 15 players at rough estimate .
And in that group the Crows would be looking at high draft picks that were expected to be part of our future.
We are one club with picks available from last years draft and players of the ability as shown by 1990 crow able to be selected would like any reduction in number to be small.

 

[oldntired]

ROB you must be full of falling down water????

Yes but what about the run and carry aspect.

 

[oldntired]

ROB you must be full of falling down water????

Recruit a rover

 

[Thetrader15]

Yep, according to his bio on the club web page he's already about 8cms taller and 2kg heavier

So he's even skinnier?

 

[SaltPeter]

So he's even skinnier?

Hahaha .. Gollant is the skinny one. Similar height and about 10kg lighter

 

[Mismatched]

What worries me about your plan which is exciting but that is 6 new draftees and real quality to our future stocks but if playing list reduced to say 35 or 38 we have to delist a lot of players if don't want to touch last years group. looking at 10- 15 players at rough estimate .
And in that group the Crows would be looking at high draft picks that were expected to be part of our future.
We are one club with picks available from last years draft and players of the ability as shown by 1990 crow able to be selected would like any reduction in number to be small.

Quite frankly, I think we need to be cutting deep into our list anyway, which would mean 10-12 players moved on from the main list. Our list has become extremely stale and I think lacking in developing talent with elite potential. I also believe that there's a lot of scars from the issues of the past 4-5 years that we can only move on from with sweeping changes. Some tough decisions may need to be made, but I think we've spent far too long shying away from the "tough decisions" and it holds our list back, especially when it comes to guys who have played a few games.

If I look at our list, we currently have 38 on the senior list, if senior lists drop to 35 and we say want to take 6 picks to the draft, that's 9 players that need to be cut. Realistically, if you factor in a rookie upgrade or 2, plus possibly trades, then we probably need to lose 11-12 players.

A brief review of our list shows 6 prime candidates very quickly(subject to change depending on how the year goes):
Gibbs - Done
Mackay - Why is he still here
Knight - 25, injury prone and struggles to make the best 22 when fit
Poholke - Just doesn't seem up to it
Hartigan - 29 at the start of next season and borderline 22 at best, with McAsey, Butts and Worrel coming through. Needs to move on.
McPherson - Just can't get on the park, with lists going down, probably can't afford to carry him, one you might rookie if that's an option, but probably not.

From there it gets a little more difficult, but not unreasonable either with a few.

Gallucci, Himmelberg and Davis' 4th year on the list, none are close to being walk up best 22 starts, if they struggle again this year then all three would potentially be on the block very quickly.

Does Brad Crouch hang around? Where does Kelly sit, perenially on the fringe, but now likely getting in the way of a raft of 1st-3rd year players? Does Walker have the drive to go on? How does McAdam go this year, if he's still not up to it by the end of the year, how long do we persist? How does Stengle respond to his 4 game suspension/drama? Is there something going on in the background with McHenry (pure speculation btw), I'm not sure what it is, but I get a gut feel somethings not right there, hope I'm wrong? Does Lynch decide to chase a premiership elsewhere? Is there someone else who decides they want out/doesn't get along well with Nicks?

There's a lot of water to go under the bridge, but it would not surprise me if come list management period, we're finding 10 senior list changes quite easy to make given where we're at.

 

[Mego Red]

I want Thilthorpe and Baldwin. Finishing low deals with getting Thilthorpe.
Getting Baldwin may be more difficult. With him getting SANFL action he could quickly become a top 6 or 7 draft prospect. Hoping closer to 11-12 as that would probably be achievable in terms of getting currency to get him. GWS first (14-18) added with potentially our 2021 first rounder would get us into the region where hopefully Sydney finish as they have that academy player who may need points (Campbell).
Crows second to pickup Dumesny.
Edwards using Dogs second rounder.
Newchurch and Borlase with whatever we have left.
If we could pull that off.. bring on 2025.

Fogarty, Milera, Doedee, Jones, McHenry, McAsey, Thilthorpe, Baldwin, Edwards, Dumesny, Hamill, Schoenberg, Worrell, Dudley, Oconnor with question marks over Galluci, McPherson, Newchurch, Borlase, Gollant, Murphy, McAdam, Stengle, ROB, Butts

Adding the bolded in my view is key to our long term squad needs. Midfielders would become priority going into 2021 onwards if we have a spine of Thilthorpe, Fogarty, Baldwin, McAsey, Borlase/Worrell/Butts

I don't hate that but next year's draft is meant to be pretty good, so I'd be hesitant to give up that pick - and I'm hoping we can get Hately from GWS with at worst their first (but hopefully a second?).

That being said - not sure how we get the currency for the players you've outlined without doing something similar to what you've said.

Western Bulldogs and Collingwood picks might be gettable too?

 

[Mego Red]

Quite frankly, I think we need to be cutting deep into our list anyway, which would mean 10-12 players moved on from the main list. Our list has become extremely stale and I think lacking in developing talent with elite potential. I also believe that there's a lot of scars from the issues of the past 4-5 years that we can only move on from with sweeping changes. Some tough decisions may need to be made, but I think we've spent far too long shying away from the "tough decisions" and it holds our list back, especially when it comes to guys who have played a few games.

If I look at our list, we currently have 38 on the senior list, if senior lists drop to 35 and we say want to take 6 picks to the draft, that's 9 players that need to be cut. Realistically, if you factor in a rookie upgrade or 2, plus possibly trades, then we probably need to lose 11-12 players.

A brief review of our list shows 6 prime candidates very quickly(subject to change depending on how the year goes):
Gibbs - Done
Mackay - Why is he still here
Knight - 25, injury prone and struggles to make the best 22 when fit
Poholke - Just doesn't seem up to it
Hartigan - 29 at the start of next season and borderline 22 at best, with McAsey, Butts and Worrel coming through. Needs to move on.
McPherson - Just can't get on the park, with lists going down, probably can't afford to carry him, one you might rookie if that's an option, but probably not.

From there it gets a little more difficult, but not unreasonable either with a few.

Gallucci, Himmelberg and Davis' 4th year on the list, none are close to being walk up best 22 starts, if they struggle again this year then all three would potentially be on the block very quickly.

Does Brad Crouch hang around? Where does Kelly sit, perenially on the fringe, but now likely getting in the way of a raft of 1st-3rd year players? Does Walker have the drive to go on? How does McAdam go this year, if he's still not up to it by the end of the year, how long do we persist? How does Stengle respond to his 4 game suspension/drama? Is there something going on in the background with McHenry (pure speculation btw), I'm not sure what it is, but I get a gut feel somethings not right there, hope I'm wrong? Does Lynch decide to chase a premiership elsewhere? Is there someone else who decides they want out/doesn't get along well with Nicks?

There's a lot of water to go under the bridge, but it would not surprise me if come list management period, we're finding 10 senior list changes quite easy to make given where we're at.

McHenry? Jesus, he's in almost every promo video the club puts out. Doesn't seem like an issue there.

 

[Mego Red]

I think they'll merge main and rookie lists for next year and get it down to 38, then get it to 35 the year following.

Which means we need to cut to 33 to get five new players in - so cut 11.

For me, that's:

Bryce Gibbs
David Mackay
Ben Crocker
Kyle Hartigan
Elliot Himmelburg
Ben Keays
Jake Kelly
Riley Knight
Myles Poholke
Ayce Taylor
Patrick Wilson

Kelly is maybe a trade to upgrade a pick. Keays would be nice for depth.

Maybe you also cut Strachan, and you draft a replacement rookie ruck in if you get an injury.

 

[Mego Red]

It doesn't feel like the kind of thing the club would do, but I'd put Laird and Lynch in the table this year as well.

I think some teams may look to trade out of this draft and this is the year we could get value.

It feels like they're both the kinds of players the club would be really hesitant to trade, though.

 

[jackster83]

It doesn't feel like the kind of thing the club would do, but I'd put Laird and Lynch in the table this year as well.

I think some teams may look to trade out of this draft and this is the year we could get value.

It feels like they're both the kinds of players the club would be really hesitant to trade, though.

Would you keep Atkins? Contract year, free agent...hmmm.

 

[Mismatched]

McHenry? Jesus, he's in almost every promo video the club puts out. Doesn't seem like an issue there.

Probably fair, and I hope you're right. There's just been a few things that haven't sat right to me that suggest there's something going on behind the scenes.

I think they'll merge main and rookie lists for next year and get it down to 38, then get it to 35 the year following.

I agree, I doubt we'll go from 38 + 6 rookies to 35 and no rookie list next year. It may be the plan, but I doubt it'll be that simple and getting there wouldn't be in 1 off season. It could be that its 35 + 4 next year (noting rookie salaries, whilst reasonable, aren't likely to be a difference maker in the grand scheme)

I've suggested previously that there may be a "supplemental" list created to replace the rookie list which would support clubs reserves teams and allow them to give the developmental/project player opportunities. With only part-time commitments (ie given time for a meaningful part, to even full, time job or studies) and salaries in the order of $10-30k a year, you could probably comfortably have a cap of $400,000 and max of 20 players and it would be a $100k cheaper than the current rookie list salaries. For perspective, a first year rookie ears $85k a year + $5k per game of AFL, 6x$85k=$510k/year. This concept would lead into an AFL Reserves comp, which IMO if done well could easily pay for itself and work to increase exposure of the AFL and create potential new revenue streams/sponsorship opportunities.

That $400k would then be offset by cutting 3 senior list spots. The base wage for 1st year player is $105k + $5k match payments.

If the AFL are serious about cutting costs though then the key issue isn't number of list spots. The key issue is the salary cap and average wage which is $363k/year. This won't be easy as the AFLPA is all about protecting the salaries of its highest earners and clearly want to extract every $ possible.

Which means we need to cut to 33 to get five new players in - so cut 11.

For me, that's:

Bryce Gibbs
David Mackay
Ben Crocker
Kyle Hartigan
Elliot Himmelburg
Ben Keays
Jake Kelly
Riley Knight
Myles Poholke
Ayce Taylor
Patrick Wilson

Kelly is maybe a trade to upgrade a pick. Keays would be nice for depth.

Maybe you also cut Strachan, and you draft a replacement rookie ruck in if you get an injury.

Reasonaly sensible cuts there.

I think Strachan probably is very much borderline if cuts start happening, especially with Frampton on the list. You might even keep Himmelberg for another year as well instead. Realistically, if you're cutting list spots, multi-position players are going to become more important. Himmelberg has the potential to player forward, ruck and defense, not necessarily as a best 22, but as a depth player in case of injury.

 

[Mismatched]

It doesn't feel like the kind of thing the club would do, but I'd put Laird and Lynch in the table this year as well.

I think some teams may look to trade out of this draft and this is the year we could get value.

It feels like they're both the kinds of players the club would be really hesitant to trade, though.

I agree. I'd go so far as to say that we should be entertaining offers for any of Brown, Laird, Smith, Seedsman, Atkins, Lynch, Kelly or even Walker. Personally I'd add the Crouches to that too. Its a touchy area and by no means should we be getting rid of even close to all of them.

However, given where we sit as a club, our best 22 is still flush with 25-32 year old players, to the extent that our list/experience profile of our top 30 is such that we should be in contention for the top 4.

The trouble is we're not challenging for the top 4, which means there's going to be a number of players clogging our 22 and stifling development opportunities.

Its a similar issue to when Blight arrived at the club. All these senior, experienced, big named players who just aren't getting the results. Individually still very good players, but as a team we're just not going anywhere.

The difficulty is, if you go too far, you become a basketcase like Melbourne or Carlton, but if you don't go hard enough, you just become an irrelevant club on a long slow mediocre burn to the bottom 4. Kangaroos have done this. IMO Brisbane did this after their dominant era. Melbourne started off like this, then went too far the other way.

 

[Mutineer]

I think they'll merge main and rookie lists for next year and get it down to 38, then get it to 35 the year following.

Which means we need to cut to 33 to get five new players in - so cut 11.

For me, that's:

Bryce Gibbs
David Mackay
Ben Crocker
Kyle Hartigan
Elliot Himmelburg
Ben Keays
Jake Kelly
Riley Knight
Myles Poholke
Ayce Taylor
Patrick Wilson

Kelly is maybe a trade to upgrade a pick. Keays would be nice for depth.

Maybe you also cut Strachan, and you draft a replacement rookie ruck in if you get an injury.

Surely Jordan Gallucci has to be in the uncommitted pile especially if he can't break into the side by year's end.
So you cut Ayce Taylor never having seen him play a game of any description anywhere. Hamish Ogilvie and Steve McCrystal obviously saw plenty in him they liked and I might add I'm pretty sure list sizes will not be cut as drastically as you suggest.

I'm absolutely positive the talk of any issues with Neddy are a figment of that posters imagination btw.

 

[Mego Red]

Would you keep Atkins? Contract year, free agent...hmmm.

Probably, yeah. I think he's played three or four seasons consistently (as in, consistently getting games not necessarily consistent performance) and playing as an outside mid who actually gets a lot of the ball is a tough job.

Look, he's not too of my list to keep,so I wouldn't be too fussed if he left.

 

[Mego Red]

Probably fair, and I hope you're right. There's just been a few things that haven't sat right to me that suggest there's something going on behind the scenes.



I agree, I doubt we'll go from 38 + 6 rookies to 35 and no rookie list next year. It may be the plan, but I doubt it'll be that simple and getting there wouldn't be in 1 off season. It could be that its 35 + 4 next year (noting rookie salaries, whilst reasonable, aren't likely to be a difference maker in the grand scheme)

I've suggested previously that there may be a "supplemental" list created to replace the rookie list which would support clubs reserves teams and allow them to give the developmental/project player opportunities. With only part-time commitments (ie given time for a meaningful part, to even full, time job or studies) and salaries in the order of $10-30k a year, you could probably comfortably have a cap of $400,000 and max of 20 players and it would be a $100k cheaper than the current rookie list salaries. For perspective, a first year rookie ears $85k a year + $5k per game of AFL, 6x$85k=$510k/year. This concept would lead into an AFL Reserves comp, which IMO if done well could easily pay for itself and work to increase exposure of the AFL and create potential new revenue streams/sponsorship opportunities.

That $400k would then be offset by cutting 3 senior list spots. The base wage for 1st year player is $105k + $5k match payments.

If the AFL are serious about cutting costs though then the key issue isn't number of list spots. The key issue is the salary cap and average wage which is $363k/year. This won't be easy as the AFLPA is all about protecting the salaries of its highest earners and clearly want to extract every $ possible.



Reasonaly sensible cuts there.

I think Strachan probably is very much borderline if cuts start happening, especially with Frampton on the list. You might even keep Himmelberg for another year as well instead. Realistically, if you're cutting list spots, multi-position players are going to become more important. Himmelberg has the potential to player forward, ruck and defense, not necessarily as a best 22, but as a depth player in case of injury.

Yeah, that might be what you do. Have one first choice ruckman, MAYBE one project u-22 ruckman and multi position players.

 

[Mego Red]

Surely Jordan Gallucci has to be in the uncommitted pile especially if he can't break into the side by year's end.
So you cut Ayce Taylor never having seen him play a game of any description anywhere. Hamish Ogilvie and Steve McCrystal obviously saw plenty in him they liked and I might add I'm pretty sure list sizes will not be cut as drastically as you suggest.

I'm absolutely positive the talk of any issues with Neddy are a figment of that posters imagination btw.

Gallucci has to be in the discussions.

Personally, I think he's shown glimpses at the highest level that are worth pursuing, at least until we truly know.

Ayce Taylor is a project player, last in on the list after not being drafted. If Hamish really sees something, I'm sure we'll keep him around. I'm surprised by the choice, because he's a bit of clumsy tweener size - not quite a small defender, not quite a KPD.

But I've also not seen a minute of him playing, and won't this year. He's an easy cut for me because he's a faceless unheralded player. Hamish may feel different.

 

[Mego Red]

I agree. I'd go so far as to say that we should be entertaining offers for any of Brown, Laird, Smith, Seedsman, Atkins, Lynch, Kelly or even Walker. Personally I'd add the Crouches to that too. Its a touchy area and by no means should we be getting rid of even close to all of them.

However, given where we sit as a club, our best 22 is still flush with 25-32 year old players, to the extent that our list/experience profile of our top 30 is such that we should be in contention for the top 4.

The trouble is we're not challenging for the top 4, which means there's going to be a number of players clogging our 22 and stifling development opportunities.

Its a similar issue to when Blight arrived at the club. All these senior, experienced, big named players who just aren't getting the results. Individually still very good players, but as a team we're just not going anywhere.

The difficulty is, if you go too far, you become a basketcase like Melbourne or Carlton, but if you don't go hard enough, you just become an irrelevant club on a long slow mediocre burn to the bottom 4. Kangaroos have done this. IMO Brisbane did this after their dominant era. Melbourne started off like this, then went too far the other way.

I think we proactively need to move on two or three players in the 24 to 28 age range. We actually now have too many players around that age, compared to our team performance.

 

[jackster83]

I'm absolutely positive the talk of any issues with Neddy are a figment of that posters imagination btw.

Ned stayed here during the stand down period didn't he? Not sure he would have done that if he was on the outer.

 

[Mutineer]

Gallucci has to be in the discussions.

Personally, I think he's shown glimpses at the highest level that are worth pursuing, at least until we truly know.

Ayce Taylor is a project player, last in on the list after not being drafted. If Hamish really sees something, I'm sure we'll keep him around. I'm surprised by the choice, because he's a bit of clumsy tweener size - not quite a small defender, not quite a KPD.

But I've also not seen a minute of him playing, and won't this year. He's an easy cut for me because he's a faceless unheralded player. Hamish may feel different.

I'm told we see him as a Midfield prospect. I'd be interested to see what group he's training with, from the very limited footage the club has released as yet there's been no footage where I've recognised him